The only government that is able to solve the Camp Ashraf crisis is the United States. Without pressure -- real pressure and effort -- by the Americans, the Iraqi government is going to mow down the camp, possibly killing hundreds.
The signs are ominous. The Americans have much bigger problems on their hands than dealing with a bunch of radicals no one wants to touch. Take a look at just a few the things the U.S. is preoccupied with in the region:
-- Ongoing war in Afghanistan with decreasing chance of being able to make good on the promise to withdraw forces. The situation there is deteriorating, perhaps out of control.
-- The extraordinary mess that is Pakistan. There are more radical Islamists there than all other countries combined, I bet. And they are ten times worse than those in Iran in every respect. By the way that's the country that has a nuclear arsenal.
-- Massive, complicated, confusing changes that have swept North Africa, especially Egypt. Add Bahrain. Yemen. Syria. Imagine Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria next. The situation is so bad that they're not even worried about Lebanon as much. Lebanon!
-- Palestine!
So, realistically, Camp Ashraf is not going to make this screaming crisis list.
From a purely humanitarian standpoint, the Americans must get involved to make sure the camp is dismantled in a bloodless, fair and orderly manner under UN supervision. It must ensure current and ex-Mojahedin members can take refuge in other countries. Cold political realities, however, will keep American involvement to a minimum -- not enough to prevent a tragedy.
What's more likely to happen?
The Iraqi army will carry out its threat to get rid of the camp by the end of the year or soon after. It has tried before. This time it's serious. And it has proven to be merciless, with no qualms about killing a few hundred if necessary. The Iraqis see no benefit in allowing Ashraf's existence on its soil. Iran has more influence on the Iraqi government than the U.S. at this point and can't be happier about the imminent disappearance of this thorn in its side.
It's a bad situation. Real bad.
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Folks
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Sep 22, 2011 01:07 PM PDTI am with both Mehrdad and Hooshang on what to do. The best thing is to have people who want to leave do so. But MEK forces are preventing them from leaving. Therefore some kind of on MEK control is required.
Maybe I am being too kind to Americans. But here are the choices:
The first means a big fight and MEK will lose. Probably get killed or do a Jones Town. At least with the second one we may avoid a fight.
...
by Hooshang Tarreh-Gol on Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:58 AM PDTVPK: you're begining to scare me.
The piece below is still the best article I've read on this issue, highly recommended.
//iranian.com/main/2011/sep/trapped-camp-ashraf
Most
probably there's not a whole lot of things we could do about the Camp
as a whole.
Perhaps a less ambitious goal of trying to see if we could
establish some connections with some of the folks who want to leave
there (which we presume there are, based on the article above).
VPK jaan: what gives you the notion that....
by Bavafa on Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:42 AM PDTAmerica can be trusted to be a fair and transparent mediator?
At best, America can and should intervene to give each of these members enough protection to choose their own path freely and go thru system, that is a fair justice and possibly a relocation coupled with de-programization.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
P.S. Love Ari's recommendation, followed by Maybekhoor suggestion. Spot on.
The best way
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Sep 22, 2011 10:04 AM PDTis to
to any nation that will take them. Maybe USA takes some; Iraq takes
some I figure US has enough pull to find a place for them.
want to. Iran is the one nation which has said will take them back. It
is risky but they should have that option.
Political problem vs what other kind of problem?
by Esfand Aashena on Thu Sep 22, 2011 09:52 AM PDTJJJ I don't understand your point about Camp Ashraf being a political problem, what's the difference between say political vs another kind of problem that we can associate MKO with?
I take it you agree with me that MKO will welcome any massacre of their own. Case and point in France when several of their sympathizers set themselves on fire when Maryam was arrested.
Again so what if MKO wants to have it's own Karbala? I'm not suggesting a massacre or condoning it but since presumably MKO were disarmed by US Military, they should be able to eject the residents with a military plan without much bloodshed.
Last time Iraqis did it they just went on few Jeeps and went on heehawwing and no planned anything. They were just circling and MKO following the Jeeps!
Anyway, they are going to be removed from Camp Ashraf and I don't know the magical solution but at least I don't try to confuse the issue by offering dead on arrival solutions. Or criticize any kind of solution that is offered. Certainly NOT listen to MKO's solution.
Everything is sacred
the rescue of Ashraf residents by the US troops
by MM on Thu Sep 22, 2011 09:40 AM PDTAccording to sources, the residents of Ashraf are told to resist any evacuations by the Iraqis, but not to mess with the US troops. So, my hope is that the US troops will mediate a sweep of Camp Ashraf to dismantle it and help the residents find accomodations elsewhere. Otherwise, there will be a blood-bath and the MEK will have their Karbala.
...
by Hooshang Tarreh-Gol on Thu Sep 22, 2011 09:51 AM PDTThe blog below is by far the best writing I've read on Camp Ashraf.
//iranian.com/main/2011/sep/trapped-camp-...
It's written by people most connected to those inside the camp. Is there any way to pursue further contacts with the writer of the blog? Or the people who signed it? Do any of them actually have any contacts with anyone inside the camp? If we could help to relocate even a single individual from the Camp to the outside world, it'll be a great achievement. Cheers
Camp Ashraf is political
by Jahanshah Javid on Thu Sep 22, 2011 09:16 AM PDTCamp Ashraf is political problem. Its occupants on the other hand are human beings in a desperate situation -- no matter what their political views may be.
A massacre at Camp Ashraf will not only be a grave tragedy, but also a political boost for the Mojahedin leadership who will forever claim it as their own "Karbala".
***
Simorgh... I assume you will be first in line to sign up for the "liberation army"? "Sargord Simorgh" has a nice ring to it :)))
JJJ منظورم از appeasing لیلی به لالای مجاهدین گذاشتنه!
Esfand AashenaThu Sep 22, 2011 05:44 AM PDT
Everything is sacred
What should happen is to stop appeasing Mujahedeen!
by Esfand Aashena on Thu Sep 22, 2011 05:37 AM PDTI feel for the rank and file of Mujahedeen in Camp Aashraf but they (by they I mean their ruthless leaders, not rank and file) can't be appealing to people's good senses for ever.
My first response and comments about Camp Ashraf on i.com was back in April 2008 when Massoud Khodabandeh wrote an article and he has since written several more with the latest one being featured on the front page right now. Looks like he exclusively writes about Camp Ashraf and his articles have been eye opening.
JJJ now that you've published wall to wall articles, blogs and belogs about MKO you're trying to organize your own thoughts and offer a solution but you don't offer anything of substance! You're acting just like a politician who is trying to have it both ways! Or hexagon ways, just kidding!
The "peaceful way" that you think US should do, they've already tried, thus ONE of the reasons they've kept MKO's classification as a terrorist organization as of May 2011, just 4 months ago. They tried to give them sanctuary and Red Cross has been knocking on their door for ever.
So even if the US were to get seriously involved they have to get involved militarily and force them out and separate their rank and file and give each individual an option. That's the solution and that's how it is going to end up.
If MKO's history is of any consequence and a lesson, MKO's leadership will not only NOT heed to warnings by either US officials, Europeans or Iraqis but they will insist to be thrown out militarily and not only that, they will insist that their ejection from Camp Ashraf be as brutal as possible and as bloody as possible.
So this is a given. The only item left to think and plan about is how to militarily eject them from Camp Ashraf with the least bloodshed. What to do with them after ejection is another topic.
Everything is sacred
Engaging corporate profits -- LOL, that's a nice one.
by MeyBokhor_Manbarbesuzan on Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:46 AM PDTI propose turning it to a casino and red-light district. The idea is not new since their leaders have already gambled with the lives of their followers and Massoud-Maryam experience is still fresh in the minds -- although they said they did it for the cause.
The customer base would be the thousands and thousands of Iranians going to Najaf and Karbala but with an extra stop-over in Camp Ashraf.
It's a win-win situation for everyone. The current residents can get the same status as that of American native Indians.
Camp Ashraf must stay
by Simorgh5555 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:21 AM PDTThe entire location is ideal to launch ground operations against the Terrorist Regime occupying Iran. I suggest the Americans take over the camp completely and enlist those who wish to remain into a permanent army. Give those fighters and patriots a fresh chance, train them, make them part of a liberation army.
Save Camp Ashraf but dump Rajavi.
Engage U.S. corporations' profit motive
by Ari Siletz on Thu Sep 22, 2011 12:07 AM PDTDon't deal with the U.S. government directly. Secretly offer a profit incentive to some big corporations (oil companies?) pending quick dissolution of Camp Ashraf. Their lobbyists will get Congress to act.
............
by yolanda on Wed Sep 21, 2011 10:28 PM PDTI hope the ending is peaceful, but it is possible that we will have something like Waco!
Apparently MEK members are brain-washed big time that they don't want to capitulate. This video shows that they were trained not to surrender and fight to their last breath and join the other 20,000 MEK 'martyrs"
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqfTNk0CN58&feature=related
Of course, Maryam Rajavi does not want to close down Camp Ashraf, so she can keep being the "President-Elect". If Camp Ashraf is dismantled and MEK is disbanded, Rajavi has to stop galivanting the globe and she has to get a real job!
I am just curious that when was the last time Maryam Rajavi was in Camp Ashraf?
JJ: How do you suppose....
by Bavafa on Wed Sep 21, 2011 09:48 PM PDTUN forces can make them go (peacefully) that otherwise it can not be done? Isn't months of notice to move out a peaceful way of evicting them?
The main responsibility lies not on US, Iraq or any other nation but the leaders of this cult and its members. The international community can and should help these poor souls but we ought to recognize the main responsible party for any death/injury that may happen and hold them accountable.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
I wish them
by Souri on Wed Sep 21, 2011 06:02 PM PDTpeace and serenity, even though many of them are responsible of many crimes against the Iranians. But I am afraid, it is really too late for them., because of their own fanatism.
Not to mention
by Jahanshah Javid on Wed Sep 21, 2011 05:46 PM PDTSouri, I did not mention the Mojahedin leadership because they are hopeless to expect they would be the least bit helpful.
However, even without cooperation of the Rajavis, even if they order members not to give up the camp, it is still possible to dismantle the camp without bloodshed -- if UN forces are involved instead of the Iraqis AND alternative homes are found outside Iraq. Not easy to pull off, but the only hope.
Then what do you suggest?
by Souri on Wed Sep 21, 2011 05:38 PM PDTYou said:
"It must ensure current and ex-Mojahedin members can take refuge in other countries. "
What do you think that US/UN should do for them? If the Asharaf's residents don't resist the Iraqi forces and leave the territory upon the first notice, there wouldn't be any bloodshed! But they won't!
Beleive me they had many chances to get asylum in other countries. Some of our IC residents are also from the ones who did take the chance. But some other Mojaheds, didn't want to leave the camp. As I said already, their leader do not allow them to leave. Not yet, at least!
It's not up to them
by Jahanshah Javid on Wed Sep 21, 2011 05:24 PM PDTSouri, the Mojahedin are not Iraqi citizens. They came there because Saddam Hussein allowed them to set up a base. That regime has gone. The current regime has no responsibility to extend that invitation. If the Iraqis want the Mojahedin to leave, they have to leave, whether they want to or not. That's the way it is. Given this reality, the U.S. and international organizations have to make sure it happens without bloodshed. But that does not look likely. That's why we have to be worried about many lives being lost in the near future. It's a very real possibility.
Jahanshah
by Souri on Wed Sep 21, 2011 04:56 PM PDTYou seem to have forgotten a small detail :
They (the Ashraf's residents) DO NOT WANT to move!!!
What is so difficult for you guys to understand?
Most of them have already a European citizenship, but they are completly brain-washed. They don't want to move from the camp , no matter what the US or the UN will decide about that! It is only their VF, aka Rajavis, who should give them the fatva.
I do understand aboslutely the Iraqis who don't want them in their soil. Kinda pure logic. What I don't understand , is the reaction of some of our intellectual, like yourself, to this problem!