Jahanshah Javid

Thank you Abarmard

It is understandable that the platform of democracy, human rights or civil rights may not resonate with a large segment of the population (some may not even know what it means).  I guess with the population whose main concern is having food on the table, Ahmadi's hand outs have gone a long way.  How to taylor the message and the content of the movement so that it becomes relevant to a larger population is now the big question.   

It is hard to counter immediate potatoes on the table with promises of sound economic policies that will bear real results in the future.  Thank you again for your thoughtful response.   

If we are searching for

If we are searching for success, we (they) need to translate our platform to the general public and indicate what they will gain from all this

Abaramrd: what they will gain??? Justice for sale??? The welfare of the country for sale?? They will take the offer of the highest bidder. Is that what the "working class" thinks about?? Money??? Whoever gives them money, they will follow?? Is that real patriotism???

JJ prediction was right

JJ prediction was right about Mousavi. He did win. But the supreme murderer did not feel like letting him being the President since he is a representative of God....remmeber that...

The future is ours

Anonymouse, Depression will give way to anger and it isn't a permanent state. Not on a national level anyway. The government scared the day lights out of the people! It's natural they will retreat. People might just be waiting to see what happens next.

The country is a young one and has major problems like unemployment, bad health care, corrupt government offices, high rent, problems in the legal system etc. People can't take much more. This is just the beginning!

Remember the blog JJ posted right before the election where he said no matter how you look at it there’s no way Ahmadi could win? When I read it then, I thought to myself: “gee great, JJ just jinx it” (that’s a lot of J’s). I don’t want to blame JJ for all that happened this summer but his blog posting routine should include, crossing his fingers!

Abarmad, Name me one movement that has the undying support of everyone from every class?

I think the situation isn't as dark as you guys are describing it to be. At the same time, no one is turning Tehran into Utopia any day soon. It's some where in the middle.

Abarmard the green movement's platform is the easiest!

Abarmard the green movement's platform is the easiest! It doesn't get any easier than this and right down the middle of downtown Tehran and people know it.

Yes sooner or later it'll gather more steam.  Many who voted for Ahmadi left him just for his brutal crackdown.  i.e. Why couldn't he respond like a normal human being who has won something?  What's up with all the killings? etc.

During the next 4 years Ahmadi and company will undoubtly screw things up more in terms of economically, politically and socially which will make green movement to gain more strength.  However, at the moment as we speak there is a big sense of depression and defeat that is going around in Iran.  I wish it wasn't like that but that's the news I'm getting. 

Now this has nothing to do with anything else other than a brutal crackdown like in China during Tianamen square era.  The news of raping young men and women in prison is very fresh and scarey to say the least if you are living and hearing about it at various gatherings.

Everything is sacred.

Abarmard: The Basiji,

Abarmard: The Basiji, which some represent on this site,  "class" is  heavily subsidized by Khamenie et al, perhpas more than 15% of the population are not a "real" class of the society since their loyalty is paid and bought for by the government. I don't consider them as working class but a collaborator class. They just happend to be from the working class background but they don't represent a true working class. This includes most of Ahmadinejad constituencies. Mixing them up is really easy but some do intentionally.

The collaborator class will never join the movement. Though, we shouldn't let a collaborator class hold everyone else hostage until they are good and ready to give up their collaborating way.

The collaborating class cannot cower Iranians into submission anymore if you haven't noticed yet.

Anonymouse

Sooner or later, we all hope that people unite. For now, things are divided. I am not sure if social and political openness, becoming part of the International community -> the critical base of the Green movement is what the majority of Iranians in all social classes care for.

If we are searching for success, we (they) need to translate our platform to the general public and indicate what they will gain from all this. Why would a farmer, simple worker, a Bazaari, a lower social class individual want to be a part of green movement?

Sounds simple but absolutely critical.

Abarmard what English signs?! This article sheds some light

Abarmard jaan this article talks about the diversity in the green movement:

//iranian.com/main/2009/jul/who-are-they

I think it is a good reflection of what I saw too.  What "English cards"?! are you talking about outside Iran or inside?  Sure there were some English cards but the vast majority were in Farsi.

The green movement is now representing a whole lot of things and as long as you have issues with this regime you somehow fall under it.  You can blame them for this or that and try to separate yourself (not you) but in the end as long as you have issues with this regime you'll support the green movement and its ideals and struggle, like a civil rights movement. 

Everything is sacred.

Mehrban

Possibly some of the population have outgrown the Islamic Republic based on the so called "parties" of the Iranian politics. The politics in Iran has changed and now we are witnessing more doors being closed for political means. Previously however, the parties of reformists were advocating a more open policies that was directly in line with open market and competition for a "healthier" economy. They represented and do represent the entrepreneur population, which mostly reside in a better sections of Iranian cities. This is also another reason that most of the uprisings slogans and cards were written in English. Most people do not associate with capitalistic plight, if there is no ideology to communicate what's there for them.

The "pain" or plight of the green movement is not necessarily a voice for all classes within the Iranian society (something opposite than 1979 revolution). Those individuals who correctly demand a freer and open society are not including the social issues that the less fortunate are struggling with. This could be one main reason.

Abarmard a group of people (anarchists) also joined to loot

Abarmard a group of people (anarchists) also joined to loot and burn buses and trash cans which not only didn't help the cause but gave regime a reason to "justify" their violent crackdown.

While the looting and burning was condemned by the vast majority of those in the green movement, the burnt items were evident all over the city.

This also gave regime thugs a chance to loot property and blame it on people.  Like when they broke doors and windows of those chanting allah-o akbars.

Everything is sacred.

Abarmard

Why do you think that some groups  (the Bazar as an example) have not joined in the fight?  I wonder if they are afraid or have not yet had enough of this government? 

Only when most classes join

Then there is a real threat to the establishment. At this point only certain class and groups of people have shown their dissatisfaction with the system. Many different classes of Iranian society had a chance to join the fight but they chose not to. They left the movement incomplete. During all the demonstrations, most streets were quiet and people went on doing their daily routines.

Only when the majority agree that the Islamic Republic must go, then the system will break. I get mix signals from Iran. 

JJ

Perfectly put sir, No Sanctions No war, UNITY.

This war must be won by Iranians and Iranians alone. It will be an absolute delusion to think that any other country has the good of our nation in mind.

-YT 

Chikaresh dari baba ;)

Khob JJ joonam doust dareh enghelaabi harf bezaneh, lol ! nemitouni bebini? everybody is becoming enghelaabi now. Green is the the this year's trend ;)

But joking aside, I really and honestly, loved the second part of his article. Starting from :

"I see nothing wrong with condemning the regime....."

up to the end.

Good point JJ. In this second part, I'm all with you.

JJ why do you keep making political predictions? Considering

JJJ you've made many political predictions before and many of them have come out to be wrong.  For example, you said Obama would not make it and then said Mousavi is the next president and some other ones that I can't remember now and don't feel like searching for them again.

I agree with your article that the Iranian people have waken up and are fighting for their rights.  But you also seem to think you have the pulse of this movement at hand, whereas you haven't been there in so long and don't really know what people are feeling like.  Do you even talk to anyone in Iran over the phone?

Currently there is a big sense of depression going on in Iran and all the crackdown has had its effect.  Its not easy and you're making it sound as if it is really easy.

Everything is sacred.

For an Iran,

Free from the dark forces of Qadesiyeh,Arab jehadists,hezbollah,rouhollah,nasrollah,Zahaak vocabulary of hate & status quo Pan-Ommatie psyche. A land governed by true patriots for the patriots where girls & boys side by side as equals will rebuild it under the sacred Kavianni flag.

No Sanctions, No War & NO Dialogue .

Any one diffrentiating from this is a Qadesiyeh pimp since Obama,s 2 secret love letters to Khamenei have emboldened him to commit yet more crimes & is the proof of patriots argument.

Path of Kiaan Resurrection of True Iran Hoisting Drafshe Kaviaan

 //iranianidentity.blogspot.com

//www.youtube.com/user/samsamsia

JJ, Bravo

I agree with all your views on this article.

Payandeh IRAN & IRANIANS 

IT SURE IS ;0)

ENGHELABEH SHAH VA MARDOM ! LOL  

I Got A Feeling In My Body !

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpW4sEpPp9E

VIVE LA REVOLUTION !

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFipyKSC2U8

Cheers Mate ! ;0)

JJ jan, saret sabz!

"I see nothing wrong with condemning the regime in Iran AND opposing foreign intervention or military action".  I would add opposing sanctions (such as gasoline sanction) that would hurt the population, would impoverish them, would make them reliant on hand-outs from the regime, and thus silent and obedient.  Sanctions are a long term strategy as a prelude to foreign intervention.  In Iraq sanctions killed over a million children and adults by the time of the 2003 American Shock and Awe (instigated by Israel).   We must oppose the sanctions just as seriously as we oppose military attack.

Thank you JJ for the brilliant article.  

I Drink to that....

I couldn't agree more!

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEKnT3jrP58

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=yntZfjJhOYM

Well said JJ

You covered it all. This is a superb analysis of our situation and unfortunately I have to even agree with some of the gloomy predictions that you made. I hope the regime weakens a lot more before any attack (which seems inevitable) , or we're in for a long stretch of time under a more restricting IRI before any real uprising could brew from the ashes again.

IRANdokht

Excellent peice

Dear JJ,

You could not have said it any better.  I totally agree! The regime is only in power via military means and they are running high on being super paranoid!

I pray for a free and democractic Iran.

excellent and hopeful

Dear JJ,

I like what you said. I certainly hope that our beloved hammihans who paid with their lives and those who endured the Mullahs' prisons see an end to this nightmare of theocracy. I certainly agree with you that we all must do all we can to discourage Israel from attacking Iran. If they attack, the ordinary Iranians will be the one who would most likely suffer the most and the mullahs will get a new lease on their filthy regime.

The highly-paid and greatly-pampered political advisors to the U.S. government ought to, for a change, come up with peaceful ways of helping the Iranian people to free themselves from the yoke of the mullahs. Any idiot with weapons is capable of unleashing them. That requires no brains.

As for you, I pray that you are right and I love your sense of optimism.

Ba dorood,

Bahram G

Scared of their own shadows

Dear JJ:

I not only applaud your optimism, I share it.  Over just a few days in June, IRI lost the hold it had kept over the people of Iran, compromised its legitimacy on the international arena, and depleted itself from a way back to ruling Iran as it had successfully done for 30 years.  Within minutes of the news of the rigged election results, Iranians were on the streets chanting "Dawn will Khamenei," recognizing and naming their true obstacle to social freedom and justice.  The chants have not only not subsided, they have grown in strength and intensity, promising to continue until they are heard.  On a daily basis now, we are witness to the feverish and frightened actions and rhetoric of the regime, cracking down even harder and threatening even more, only to intensify the resolve of a people who have woken up to a state of discontent with the lot of the theocrats, unwilling to accept and respect it anymore.

It is only a matter of time before the floodgates which keep people inside their homes are broken again, either through pressure or erosion.  IRI is not equipped nor willing to compromise with Iranians, most likely it doesn't know how.  The green movement is a social movement at its core, demanding social and human rights for people of Iran.  That is why it can only respond positively to social change, no more and no less.  IRI has missed all its opportunities to grant social freedom to people who are tired of the government's interfering in their private lives and obstructing justice everywhere.  It is only a matter of time before it would become impossible to manage 40+ million dissidents on the streets.

I have to agree that Israel's "gift" to IRI would be to take military action on it, enabling it to crack down on Iranians inside and ensuring its own existence for another 30 years.  I believe all of Ahmadinejad's rhetoric and stated political positions over the past 4 years have aimed to achieve this goal--a controlled military attack on Iran, something that was not achieved and hence the uprising in June.  IRI needs a limited war to stay in power and Iranian people need peace to see themselves through a brighter future with true prospects of a democracy.

Thank you.  I would like to leave this video clip for you to see.  It shows Ali Khamenei during his recent speech to "academics," admitting he has actually seen "people's hate" on their faces during the recent uprising.  It is chilling and it is true.  The man is not as dumb as he looks but just as ruthless as we have known him to be (I wasn't able to embed it): 

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ihdBWMbsKI

Dear JJ, I could not agree with your blog more

Jahanshah, you are right. IRI has not won.  You pretty much summed it up well.  I like to quote from your blog:"

I'm thrilled because I think the Islamic Republic is in deep trouble. By ruthlessly eliminating mildly critical loyalists from the circle of power, it has weakened its own foundations and deeply disillusioned a vast sector of the population..." 

Jahanshah, I also agree with you that we should not stay quiet.  We in Diaspora should continue supporting the movement in Iran. Victory of people in Iran as they say: deer va zood dareh vali sokht o sooz nadareh.