Jahanshah Javid

My dear JJ

Thanks for the succincnt answer but now I am more confused. There happens to be a group of "Iranians" who are fighting for the other side. Is "our" fight "their" fight too?

FR

Agree completely!

This needed to be said! It is Iranians' problem and it requires Iranian solution. The most damaging part of fighting for freedom is to be partners with people who want to take it away.

US and Israel aren't stupid. They don't do things because of the goodness of their heart. They are no better than Mullahs and maybe much worse. Just look at Iraq and Afghanistan.

Answer

Iranians

Question

Who are "our" in "our fight?"

FR

This Is Our Fight

J.J: Analysis, well done.  U.S. and the west are only interested in Israel security and flow of oil.  Iranians must focus on the task at hand, that is to bring down the IRI, and hope something good come out of it.  I agree with the gentleman who said this regime is too brutal to let a popular uprising to succeed.  I am changing my focus on pitting the military proper against the Pasdaran.  I have no doubt in my mind that there are many in the military tired of getting pissed at by the Pasdaran who are in the gravy.  I will be sending you an article to prod that campaign, shortly.  Everyone must do their part.   

Thanks JJ - great piece and good insight ... wtg

Every voice counts! Every action counts!

Fighting Requires Strategy

Game Theory is much more worthwhile than "khod jooshee" when dealing with Iranian politics, throwing oneself into the flames is not a strategy, protests usually only make a difference in the short-term.

//www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html 

//www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html

Q, let's agree with masoudA for once!?

Q, let's agree with masoudA for once (*), let support USA shipping 15000 fax machines to Iran!

At least now masoudA is not dreaming about allied invasion of Iran (or says he) //iranian.com/main/2007/allied-inavsion-iran

(*) that will make our body KouroshS very happy also!

masoud A

You make sense.

Ignore the Ignorants and Daydreamers.

A small example of why the regime is in trouble

A friend just returned from Iran a few of days ago.  I asked her if there were still any demonstrations in Iran that were not being reported.  Her answer was that there is nothing large scale, but every time people get a chance, and a trigger, they gather in small groups and start a spontaneous demonstration, and then disperse quickly.

My father, who was also present as this friend was telling her story, imediately jumped in and said that this reminds him exactly of 1978 and the beginnings of the 1979 revolution, where people would gather is small ad hoc bands, chant a few slogans and then disperse.

The regime is really in trouble.  This uprising is not going away.  They know it too.  That's why they have been cancelling pretty much all public events out of fear of them turning into anti-government demonstrations.  I personally do not believe, however, that this regime is going to be overthrown by a popular revolt.  They are just too brutal and way too organized militarily to allow a thing like that to happen.  What I think will happen is that the demonstrations, opposition, etc. will continue, and in response to that, a group of military officers within the IRGC who will see their own interests (and lives for that matter) in peril, will remove the regime in a military coup, which will be followed by a period of extreme political chaos that may usher in a new system of governance.    

masoudA, yea like we needed "help" in 1953

I disagree with those who say NO MEDDLING IN IRANIAN AFFAIRS.

You disagree with Iranians.

My 2 Cents

I agree with those who say NO MILITARY ACTIONS against Iran.

But I disagree with those who say NO MEDDLING IN IRANIAN AFFAIRS.   We will need help in our struggle and there is nothiong wrong with recieving it from non-Iranians.   No population has ever been successful in changing their government without outside help.   USA shipped 15000 fax machines to Poland and made a huge difference. 

As an American you make a perfect sense but …

If I were to receive  a proposal by an American Firm to be provided with free products and engineering resource so that they can promote their name brand. I (Iranian) would refuse to do business with them.

You can say, I will imposed a sanction on their products.

You see war is not such a bad thing.

A great article!

A great article with exhaustive analysis! One of the best articles I have read here! Thank you sooo much!

yolanda

Mrs. when does depression lead to anger?

You see this what I mean Mrs.  Why predict that depression will lead to anger and then to an overthrow of the regime?

JJ is predicting that Iran will be free of this regime one day.  Yes one day but when?  He seems to think it is almost at any time now and although he doesn't say it out loud that is the message he is trying to convey.  And you fell for that?!

Now from now until that "one day" there are going to be a lot of other events that we can look for and not look just for the end, if we live that long. One way Amadi garnered some support was to pay people charity basically.

So yes there are millions who support him and you can't just get rid of them like in a snap.  You have to deal with them.  I don't have the answers and I'm saying don't make this as if it is a fore gone conclusion.

BTW JJ who are the other 4 countries in your top 5 list?  I just want to know if you can think of other countries worse than Iran.  Hint another continent. 

Everything is sacred.

V.

I read the article.  Stage 5: Basically, either a victory from a war emboldens and consolidates the power of the state (JJ's argument also) or in the absence of such victory or war the state will fall into incoherence.   I hope if incoherence of state is where we are headed (if we are not there already), it would be a short period to its demise.   Thanks V. 

بیانیه شماره 12

بیانیه شماره 12 میرحسین موسوی: باطل رفتنی است

بسم الله الرحمن الرحیم

خبر دستگیری برادران عزیز آقایان دكتر سیدعلیرضا بهشتی و مهندس مرتضی الویری مسئولان كمیته پیگیری امور آسیب دیدگان حوادث ایام اخیر و سردار مقدم مسئول كمیته ایثارگران ستاد انتخاباتی اینجانب موجی از شگفتی و ابهام در دلبستگان به نظام اسلامی ایجاد كرده است.
FULL TEXT
//norooznews.org/news/13840.php

Mehraban: I posted an

Mehraban: I posted an article a while back.. It describes the 5 stages of fascism. The Islamic Republic is at its fourth stage of radicalization. It needs a conflict to become a full-fledge fascist state a la Hitler's Germany.

Here is the article. You have to scroll down to get to Paxton and his characterizations:

//www.truthout.org/080909A

Dear V.

From your post to god's ears :-).

Sorry abarmardeh

Sorry abarmardeh ghodratmandeh honarmand. Try again. Lost of people were not involved in 1979. It was not all the “classes”.

Mehraban jan: Why Bazari's

Mehraban jan: Why Bazari's haven't joined the movement? Perhaps, because they are just waiting to see how Ahmadinejad et al are going to manage the looming sanctions. But it's only a matter of time that even the Bazaris willbe  jumping off  the sinking ship. I'ts almost a natural progression and easily predictable looking at historical parallels.

Dear Vildemose

You are right.  The dangers are immense.  Iran already has run away inflation and astronomical unemplyment.  Everyone I know who lives in Iran says "Iran digar jaye zendegi nist".  It is a disaster.  It is the likes of Mogabee that are friends of Iran these days.  

Under these circumstances why hasn't the Bazar(for example) joined the movement why hasn't there been a genaral strike (I wish to god there had been) but why not.  Is there something missing to ignite the whole country against the regime?  I don't know the answer.  I accept, maybe it is too early and it will come.  I just am not sure that with a single message of Democracy or human rights (themes very important to me) you can reach the entire populace to take to the streets.  

Okay, brutality of the regime is a big part of it but is that all? 

Where is Iran headed? If

Where is Iran headed?

If Ahmadinejad and his military junta succeed in demolishing the reform movement Iran will end up like

Look at Zimbabwe to see where Iran is headed. The parallels are remarkably close.

Where Iran has oil, Zimbabwe has Platinum, diamonds, gold, etc. Both regimes claim to be “revolutionary”. Both are incompetent. Both are well armed, while the majority of citizens is unarmed.

Both are allied to North Korea, Burma and Chavez.

So I think you can expect runaway inflation, mass unemployment, and large numbers of deaths.

//tehranbureau.com/iran-headed/

//www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-rachel-ehrenfeld/ahmadinejad----the-econom_b_276364.html

I guess with the population

I guess with the population whose main concern is having food on the table, Ahmadi's hand outs have gone a long way.  How to taylor the message and the content of the movement so that it becomes relevant to a larger population is now the big question."

I don't buy that argument since even the poor and uneducated are able to recognize brutality and injustice. Don't tell me that the Iranian poor are callous and immoral and don't care what happens to their country or countrymen. Plus, how long do you think Ahmadinjad is going to be able to fund bribing the poor masses?? It's not sustainable in the long run...Abarmard, you're too vested like Khamenie to see the truth...

Popular as a skunk

How do you measure popularity? By my estimation the Islamic Republic is THE most unpopular government in Iranian history AND one of the most unpopular regimes in the world. Definitely in the top five. I rank it No 1 just because I'm Iranian and I'm biased.

If the Islamic Republic's actions in the past 30 years is not enough to turn off a whole nation, then what is? Mass executions; reducing women to second-class citizens; gross discrimination against minorities; shutting any newspaper or magazine that speaks the truth; imposing religious non-sense on the entire population; needlessly prolonging a war with Iraq at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives; stupidly provoking Israel; creating terrible conditions that have forced millions of the best and brightest and richest Iranians to leave the country; pursuing a foreign policy that thrives on chaos and crisis; flimsy alliances with undemocratic powers like Russia and China; imprisoning, torturing, humiliating our youth, our writers, freedom-fighters, equality seekers; closing the political arena to all except those who bow to Khamenei ...

Those examples are just off the top of my head. You know there's much more.

Now with such a disgusting record, what portion of the population is left to cheer Khamenei and his gang?

Just look at the way people from other countries talk about their government and their daily lives. Do you see them talk as intensely and angrily as Iranians do? To me that's also a sign.

I'm not predicting anything. What do I know to predict something thousands of miles away. But you and I aren't blind. There are clear signs that this regime is only surviving through the barrel of the gun and not much else. And the status quo cannot go on for very long.

What do you see that I'm not seeing? What magical bond is keeping the Islamic Republic together? The spell has been shattered. Are higher salaries to government workers keeping the people content? Bread and butter are not going to save a corrupt, cruel, clerical establishment.

The Ayatollah has no clothes!

vildemose

As mehraban correctly mentioned:

"It is understandable that the platform of democracy, human rights or civil rights may not resonate with a large segment of the population (some may not even know what it means).  I guess with the population whose main concern is having food on the table, Ahmadi's hand outs have gone a long way.  How to taylor the message and the content of the movement so that it becomes relevant to a larger population is now the big question."

Abarmard:Are yous

Abarmard:

Are you suggesting the Green movement resort to the same lies as Khomein's when he promised free oil, free transportation, free electricty, water, etc.???

JJ, you are right on the money except ,

I don't think " The U.S., Israel and their allies can't stand the Islamic Republic for their own selfish reasons " holds true . Americans need to IRI to remain in power to justify their shield and selling arms to Arabs which are starting to happen and will help to keep the Americans in the Middle East.

Bund, JimzBund

Brother JJ,

I agree with 9/10 of what you say in your article. I'm willing to compromise on the reminder if you give me the access to post videos on your site.

TheMrs

1979