Jahanshah Javid
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Welcome to World War III
20-Nov-2007
In the days after September 11, 2001, I emailed a few people in Iran telling them not to get close to any major government buildings or installations. I was convinced the United States would attack not only Afghanistan and Iraq, but also Iran. You could see and feel the desire for revenge in every aspect of American society.
At the time a friend called from London and insisted that the Americans don't have the guts to invade any country in the region. Instead he believed they would only resort to firing missiles and carrying out air strikes, just as Clinton had done. I said listen, you have to be here to understand what I'm telling you; the Americans ARE coming. They will sweep through Afghanistan and get rid of Saddam and finally they will have their way with the Islamic Republic.
My prediction fell short. But what about now?
My feeling is that the Bush Administration has not entirely lost its appetite for war. Do not fool yourselves; be sure that many in Washington believe it's vital for America to finish the job it started and not allow the extremist regime in Tehran remain unscathed. From this American point view, if Iran isn't decisively challenged it would spell disaster for the U.S., Israel and every other pro-American regime in the Middle East.
Thousands of American soldiers have lost their lives and very soon the cost of the war is expected to soar to a trillion dollars (may I remind you that that is a THOUSAND billion dollars). After this astronomical investment, is the U.S. going to avoid the biggest prize of all and let the Islamic Republic continue business as usual? Taking on Iran could be decided in the White House over coffee and donuts. As simple as that. And in a matter of days, Iran's key nuclear facilities (and probably many military and industrial targets) could be hit in strategic bombings and missile attacks.
But now you have Pakistan falling apart. Afghanistan is still unstable. Iraq is a huge mess (and splitting into three countries). Turkey is feeling the heat from Kurdish separatists. And next door, Georgia is in turmoil. And I haven't even mentioned good old Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Now step back and look at the whole region. I'm no political analyst, but goddamn... we're already experiencing World War III if you ask me. And as you can see, America does not appear to be winning. What we have here is a super power whose credibility has slipped to a point where it has lost much of its influence in the region. I don't think there's much left. Who listens to Washington these days? Who takes Bush, Cheney and Condi Rice seriously?
Under these circumstances one would think that attacking Iran and would be simply insane, especially when you don't have a good excuse for it and you've been caught lying about WMDs in Iraq. Repeated accusations that Iran is seeking an atomic bomb are even less credible than the WMD charges against Iraq under Saddam. The Iraqis at one time did possess a large arsenal of WMDs and used them in the war against Iran. So Iraq was easy to frame based on its aggressive history and Saddam's reckless adventurism, even though it turned out that the U.N. weapons' inspectors had done their job and Iraq had complied with Security Council demands to destroy its WMD stockpiles.
I have never thought that Iran -- under the Shah or the current theocracy -- has been actively and systematically seeking to build a nuclear bomb. I worked for Iranian state news organizations for more than ten years after the 1979 revolution. I was a strong supporter of the Islamic Republic. But in all those years and the years since, I personally have never felt that the Iranian people or the ayatollahs in power have shown any serious interest in building or acquiring nuclear weapons. Never.
Am I being naive (as usual)? Isn't it possible or even probable that key elements within the regime's military establishment are on a secret mission to build nuclear weapons? After all it is a fact that Iran did obtain nuclear bomb designs from Pakistan's A.K. Khan. Why would they? Obviously it would be easy to argue that since Israel, Pakistan, India and of course Russia (and the American armada in the persian Gulf) have nuclear arms, therefore it would be natural for the Islamic Republic to seek its own.
But even in the worst case scenario, I don't see how a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could be a bigger threat than any nation that already has them. Why is it assumed that Iran under the ayatollahs would be a far more dangerous threat to the world than Stalinist Russia or Maoist China? They won't. But having the Bomb would give a sense of security to the Islamic Republic to the point where it could become ten times more belligerent than it already is. That's what the Americans, Israelis and probably Europeans fear most.
But are these assumptions enough to wage a new, devastating war? Is it ultimately worth it to carry out massive strikes simply on the basis of what Iran MIGHT do with its uranium and plutonium enrichment facilities? Is it wise to provoke fresh anti-American feelings among 80 million Iranians who happen to be one of the very few nations in the world to have a soft spot for the U.S.., thanks to nearly three decades of harsh religious rule? An attack on Iran would undoubtedly reverse this balance and force people to react against an unjustified foreign attack and show solidarity with the regime under intense nationalistic feelings.
And that's not all. You think the situation in the Middle East is bad now? It's nothing compared to what WILL unfold: The Islamic Republic has threatened to retaliate in kind against American and Israeli targets. Iran does not have a strong military by any regional standard, but what it does have is the ability to mobilize millions of devout volunteers in a time of war -- most likely a war of attrition that could go on for years, and provoke greater anti-Americanism not just in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan (where general populations are sympathetic to Iran), but also in the rest of the region as well as the islamic World at large. What a sight that would be...
Meanwhile we Iranians must not forget that the Islamic Republic is not blameless in the current crisis. Instead of calming fears and building confidence, its leaders routinely make incendiary remarks that do nothing other than worsening Iran's fundamentalist image in Western countries. What is the point of calling for the destruction of Israel? What's to be gained here? Most Iranians know full well that these are empty threats. But I'm not sure if you have noticed their impact on Israeli society. If you haven't read Israeli newspapers recently, I strongly recommend that you search online and go through the articles. Reading them makes you think another Holocaust is just around the corner.
You and I may think that's ridiculous, but Israel's fear of a nuclear Iran is far greater than we imagine. What we Iranians see as mere slogans for domestic consumption, the Israelis see as a serious threat against their very existence. And that means you can be sure the Israelis are more motivated to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities than the U.S. itself.
A few months ago I asked a prominent Israeli scholar if he thought Israel would carry out a bombing raid against Iran, just as it did against Iraq's nuclear plant in 1981. He said no. He said in order for Israeli bombers to reach Iran, they would need clearance from the American forces in the region. To me that does not sound like much of an obstacle. But what do I know sitting here in Berkeley, California? Still it seems obvious that amidst all the chaos and mayhem it's the the people who will suffer most while their belligerent, unimaginative and trigger-happy governments will flourish.
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Actually, the last time Iran invaded a country was...
by Rosie T. on Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:05 AM PSTa couple hundred years ago. About as long ago as the US has existed. Sure can't say the same about "this great nation." One string of invasion after invasion, NEVER stops...on and on and on....
Of course Iran will always
by bryan on Thu Nov 22, 2007 09:20 AM PSTOf course Iran will always stand. When did they last invade another country eh. Guess it would be a couple of hundred years B.C under Cyrus and Darius the great. Long live Iran, and let all problems in Iran be resolved by Iranian people within, and not by crazed rocket rattlers without.
Bryan
"Erased from the pages of history" is...
by Rosie T. on Thu Nov 22, 2007 07:30 AM PSTa closer English version of the original quote. But here the plot thickens (or sickens). Because WHO made the bad translation? It was the IRI"s official translators! They released the translaton hurriedly after the speech, and it was bad, , and the world press picked it up on it very quickly and it spread like wildfire.
The interesting thing is also that neither Mahmood nor his puppeteers have bothered to counter it. Even when it is publicly mentioned specifically (I think Bollinger said it at Columbia, eg.) they NEVER say, that's not what was said, that's not what we meant.
It DOES appear the bad translation was done UNintentionally, though....so what you have is...quite simply...a conundrum. Mahmood seems to be quietly being prepared for his exit by Rafsanjkhamenei BECAUSE of this type of rhetoric, yet the bad translation of the WAR rhetoric goes UNcorrected...while the Holocaust questioning rhetoric (which personally did NOT bother me) gets "corrected" into something MUCH worse...so what's up Rafsankhamenei's sleeve....I don't know,,,but it's a BIG sleeve..
Also, Khatami, in my estimation, was a GREAT man and he tried to go GREAT things. I don't know why he didn't come out publicly for the students when they were protesting and it was wrong, but...Bush and Cheney killed Reform in Iran when they flanked it militarily, and I would personally MUCH rather live in a government where people Khatami and Ebadi REALLY held the reigns than in Bush and Cheney's little paradise on earth.
Robin
I returned from a holiday in
by bryan on Thu Nov 22, 2007 05:28 AM PSTI returned from a holiday in Iran recently, and spoke with lots of people (I am not Iranian) and the remark made by the president about wiping Israel off the map was explained to me by a university professor of Iranian literature. He said the quote was one of the most badly translated he had come across and the person or persons who had translated it should go back to school and learn Farsi and English. This is what the real quote was. "one day the Zionist state of Israel will dissapear in the same way that the Soviet Union Dissapeared" I was also told that in the event of an attack by America or Israel on Iran would result in Iran attacking every oilfield in the middle east with rockets, think of a world without oil just for six months.No transport no food production no heating collapse of stockmarkets world wide mass unemployment looting for food, it does not bear thinking about. When Khatahmi was president he apologised to America for the hostage crisis in the early years of the revolution and said the murder of one jew was a crime. Did America or Israel reach out in a gesture of reconcilliation no. We reap what we sew.
Israelis / Medicine
by Rosie T. on Wed Nov 21, 2007 03:03 PM PSTI'm Jewish. I'm not a Zionist. I agree. Ahmadinejad provided a necessary antidote in certain ways to the actions of the Israelis. And in a way, he's just a "poor schnook" because he's a a sitting duck (or goat), Rafsankhameini began to "erase him from the pages of time" months ago, starting with his "Holocaust questioning", asserting instead that not only did the European Holocaust HAPPEN, but that it was GOOD and it was BIG, but not big ENOUGH because it left some Jews to infest the Middle East. (See memritv). So Mahmood should not be seeing a second term, especially since as I understand it, Rafsanjani is in a position to "vet" him now...
Anyway, Ahmad Bahai, I ask you to please bear in mind when discussing the situation in Israel/Palestine that Israelis... Israelis...got PLENTY of "medicine" from Mengele and Zyklon-B and everything, EVERYTHING they do, they do out of trauma, hysteria and paranoia. (Surely as an Iranian, you understand "paranoia"?) The Palestinian "wall" is no more than the Warsaw Ghetto five thousand times magnified, the depredations inflicted on the Palestinians obsessively repeat the nightmares of history. And what can one say really but "Forgive them Father, they know not what they do..."
Perhaps some of them could wake up...if the rhetoric were...toned down. And PLEASE PLEASE everyone, spare me the lectures on Herzel, on AIPAC, on Hillary, on Begin, on Lebanon, on Wolfowitz and the born-agains and the Rapture...I know it already... all...too...well...I was raised a Zionist but worked in my youth with organizations with ties even to the PLO. So I DO know...and none of that knowledge changes the fact that my grandfather's shtetl, Kereditch, outside of Minsk,Byelorus, was obliterated by Hitler with every person in it before Stalin had time to move the Jews east...and all that remains are the words you're reading now.
Robin
Israelis deserve it: They should get a taste of their own medici
by Ahmad Bahai (not verified) on Wed Nov 21, 2007 02:12 PM PSTJJ
Nice article, but, if you recall prior to Ahmadinejad's pronouncements, every 2-3 months an Israeli ass would come out and threaten Iran with attacks and the like for no reason. This was almost an occurance on the clock at Khatami's era as well. This usually happened when they were embaressed by the international opinions due to their stone-age and savage policies on Palestinians. Since Ahmadinejad had his statements of "wiping them off" we haven't heard of those stone age zionsists threatening Iran. I would say, they have gotten a taste of their own medicine!. This was a smart move by Ahmadinejad. Whether he has the resources to follow up or not, that is a different story.
Ahmad
Muslims are subhuman because of this...
by Ex_Muslim (not verified) on Wed Nov 21, 2007 08:30 AM PST//www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,312410,00.html
Crystal Ball / Venom
by Rosie T. on Wed Nov 21, 2007 06:48 AM PSTFor two days this week AOL featured the following article;
//news.aol.com/story/_a/un-panel-offers-dire-warming-forecast/20071117124909990001
AOL. Not Z-net, not Greenpeace, not the Nation. AOL. The UN predictions for environmental disaster are DIRE and IMMINENT. PLEASE NOTE: the major offenders are the US and China. It is also THE US, CHINA, AND IRI which are trying to hamstring UN's abolition of the death penalty. Their coalition includes the Shariah countries and some very small places like Barbados. The lines have been drawn and THEY ARE VERY CLEAR. See:
//iranian.com/main/blog/sce-campaign/un-panel-passed-resolution-against-death-penalty
You cannot support Bush AND condemn Kahmenei. You cannot apologize for Khamenei AND condemn Bush. They're the same person. They're ON THE SAME SIDE. And you CANNOT support the death penalty (or any violence or hate) in the name of life and peace. So stop the venom at least here please. It's as good a place as any to begin. The situation is DIRE.
"Be the change you want to see in the world." --Gandhi.
Robin
Brilliant! You should write
by xivaro1 (not verified) on Wed Nov 21, 2007 05:07 AM PSTBrilliant! You should write more often.
Since everybody has crystal
by Torange (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 10:45 PM PSTSince everybody has crystal ball looking into future!
Mine says:
Polariztion already started:
Major camps:
USA, now
EU, 5years
RUSSIA/CHINA/INDIA /(Moslem countries will later break away as a major power)
10years - 30years
- Overpopulaion will be major world issue besides energy crisis; now - 50years
- Overpopulation will lead into epidemic and pandemic deseases leading into major correction in world population; 25-50years
- Recovery from dark ages; 50-75years
God help us!
Ten years..
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 09:27 PM PSTis a very short time to remain a fool. Many people stay fools their whole lives.
(Don't get a swelled head though, javidi)
Pothead :D
YOU SUPPORTEDTHE REGIME 10 YEARS AFTER
by Anonymous_Flowers (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 09:14 PM PSTwowten years you remained a fool.
To Tommy E and all other paranoid people
by IRANE BOZORG (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 09:13 PM PSTFirst to Tommy E, Iran did not die in 1979 rather she is more alive than ever. Nothing will happen. Mark my words. From any angle you look at the present situation, no country would dare to do anything to get on the bad side of Iran. The Iran of today is totally different than the Iran of 3 decades ago. There is more hard evidence to prove this claim today than ever. Some people can see it and some don't.
Time will prove my point.
Iran died in 1979...
by Tommy E. (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 07:23 PM PSTMany a tear has to fall
But it's all in the game
All in the wonderful game
That we know as love
You have words with him
And your future's looking dim
But these things
Your hearts can rise above
Once in a while he won't call
But it's all in the game
Soon he'll be there at your side
With a sweet bouquet
And he'll kiss your lips
And caress your waiting fingertips
And your hearts will fly away
Soon he'll be there at your side
With a sweet bouquet
Then he'll kiss your lips
And caress your waiting fingertips
And your hearts will fly away
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNMWw7t-4d8
Israelis are getting a taste of their own medicine!
by Ahmad Bahai (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 07:14 PM PSTJJ
Nice article, but, if you recall prior to Ahmadinejad's pronouncements, every 2-3 months an Israeli ass would come out and threaten Iran with attacks and the like for no reason. This was almost an occurance on the clock at Khatami's era as well. This usually happened when they were under international pressure due to their stone age and savage policies on Palestinians. Since Ahmadinejad had his statements of "wiping them off" we haven't heard of those stone age zionsists threatening Iran. I would say, they have gotten a taste of their own medicine!. This was a smart move by Ahmadinejad. Whether he has the resources to follow up or not, that is a different story.
Ahmad
No, Rumi, Gholveh has a VERY important point...
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 07:06 PM PSTand that's my point.
Look, I knew NOTHING about Iraq before Bush went in but I'd read ONE BOOK on Yugoslavia, so I KNEW what would happen in Iraq as soon as I heard Shia, Sunnis, Kurds. An intelligent HIGH SCHOOL student could have figured it out. But they went in. So how do we KNOW the Bush administration wants a "stable" Middle East of ANY kind, for WHATEVER purposes?
If they DO want one, their opinions and agendas are to be completely rejected because they're TOTAL IDIOTS and/or CRAZY. But if they DON'T want one, they're doing an EXCELLENT JOB. And I just CAN'T see any other possibilities here in this picture. Because HOW could I have known more about the geopolitics than THEM in 2003?
And THAT's what Gholveh is SAYING. Maybe the balkanization IS the PLAN. And so I told you about Bernard Lewis's Arc of Crisis agenda...check out the link I just posted on Lewis. It talks about Shah too.
Or...to put it another way, as a Jewish peace activist friend of mine said at the beginning of the invasion of Lebanon: "So, THIS was the "Roadmap."
But you can't HEAR Gholveh even though he's making perfect sense because of the venom. The VENOM doesn't help, Rumi-joon...
Dell + Gholveh + Crap ...
by Rumi (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 06:36 PM PSTDidn't quite get what you were mumbling! He sounds like one of those smart asses who see the problem in 5th dimention and misss the basics!
Like the other idiot on other post who was claiming everyone is a freemason!
In any case just be be safe I added (Dell + Gholveh + Jegar + crap ...) to the list of the new rule so he can GO F*** Himself too!
Thank y'all
Partition / Mongoloids
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 06:07 PM PSTThe venerable scholar Bernard Lewis was a British military intelligence officer, sent after World War II to the US to work in Academia, and he proposed an Islamic "arc of crisis" to balkanize the region to destabilize the Soviet Union. And that "arc of crisis" policy has been used in various forms throughout the century until today, with or without a Soviet Union.
//www.cooperativeresearch.org/entity.jsp?entity=bernard_lewis
If I did not misunderstand him, in the winter of his years Dr. Lewis at times seems to have recently expressed a twinge or two of regret. Perhaps too many dead babies on his conscience as he prepares to meet his maker.
Oh you mongoloids, oh you nonsensical clowns. Doesn't it dispose you favorably to Jeegar when he says important intelligent things in such charming ways? Those who advocate the venom, doesn't it work...just...great?
A Sane View
by Mehdi on Tue Nov 20, 2007 05:58 PM PSTI think we need to realize that the people in charge, both in Iran and also in US or Israel are generally not very sane and logical (unlike people who live in these places). Some people argue that because a potential war is not going to benefit US therefore a war will not happen. Please remember that the powers that be are not necessarily concerned about whether such a war would be beneficial to US/Israel or not. They are mainly concerned about their own profits and also a good number of them are not sane enough to think logically and decide for the best!
I think exposing these issues, like what JJ has done here will do a lot in preventing such insanity. We should not stop talking about it. The power of the word of mouth should not be underestimated. Let's not lose hope. Let's not surrender. Let's not be overwhelmed. Let's not shut up. Thanks JJ.
As usual a bunch of clowns express nonsense here...!?
by Jeegar + Dell + Gholveh + Domballan + Seekh + Zoghal (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 05:47 PM PSTHey Mongoloids:
You need to look at the Global picture! Get your Gohie ass out of the box and think for a second.
In 20-30 years, the Middle-East, the way you have known it will not exist
The operative word is "partitioning!" It has already started in Iraq. Iran will fallow suit. Turkey will follow suit. Pakistan will follow suit. Saudi Arabia will follow suit as well.
But, first Iran must be destabilized. That's it has to be bombed. Mullahs will be happy to any partitioning of Iran too! For them, Islam is the most important thing!? The more Islamic countries, the better it is for mullahs. This will guarantee an eternal job security for these bastards. The only folks who are going to get the short end of the stick are idiots like you!?!
ey baba JJ???
by an observer (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 04:45 PM PST10 saal ba ina boodi????
digeh az cheshmam oftadi bekhoda
very nice article but I wish I didn't know you were pro-IRI for 10 years
Okay.
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 02:42 PM PSTI want him.
Khamush.
I wish....
by Rumi (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 02:39 PM PSTRosie would have stopped at "I want him.."
and say no more!
as a side, Persian women don't participate in discussion?! I mean hello!! Who are these outspoken, opinionated gals roaming these pages then?!
There are misguided, bad evil intention folks who advocate war on these pages. Being polite won't do!
Lets agree on this. You use your poetry and I use my venom and we silence them. How about that?
I appreciate that yuo appreciate Hafez! He is my man!
best...
Thank y'all
I want him...
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 02:26 PM PSTto stop using F. words in the name of peace and to stop pretending that if you could only completely castrate and invalidate every single person who ever supported a mullah or a shah that then things would be hunky dory. I want his pacifism to come from conviction within, rather than hatred without. Is that unreasonable? Do you understand what this planet is facing now? Do you?
I also find it VERY ironic that a PERSIAN tells an American to stop the poetry. No wonder your women almost never participate in your political discussions.
Zir-e-shamshir-e-ghamesh bayaad raqs konaan raft.
Under the sword of our sorrow we all must dance. Under the sword of the atom bomb we all must dance. Under the sword of Bushkhameini we all must dance. Under the sword of global warming we all must dance. On the corpses of our dead we all must dance. Out of respect for the living and their beliefs, we all must dance.
I want HAFIZ from him. THAT's what I want.
Robin
Rest of us indeed!
by haha (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 01:59 PM PSTThank y'all!
Finally avoice I can agree with.
Rosite T, pls stop the poetry. This guy is against the war what else do you want?
JJ, do not worry, you will
by Nabi (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 01:39 PM PSTJJ, do not worry, you will not be out of business anytime soon! Iran will stand as it allways has. Nabi
I agree
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 20, 2007 01:15 PM PSTso Thank y'all!
Mehrdad
Newer Rule
by Rosie T. on Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:57 PM PSTYou want to fight hate with hate, blood with blood. You are wrong. You will never win. We are standing on a mountain of corpses, better stop watering it with hate and start watering it with water and see what grows. It is the ONLY WAY to honor the dead.
You don't understand yet. You just don't understand.
Vay ke cheghadr quti tou
by Mojdeh (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:53 PM PSTMoosh tou ro bokhoreh JJ.
NEW RULE!
by FOR_THE_REST_OF_US (not verified) on Tue Nov 20, 2007 12:07 PM PSTThe follwoing can go fuck themselves or each other:
1- zealous Mullas
2- Those who kissed shah ass when alive and still worship his corpse!
3- MEK the traitors
4- Anyone else who is calling for an attck on Iran specially those in cahoots with Israel
5- Hajiagha, if he does not stop supporting war
Anyone who agrees with this please write a comment and say so
Thank y'all!
God bless Fair and just Iranian and American nations.