As was expected, by 1987 and the total failure of Karbala operations, even the most ardent Islamists could smell the pending defeat. US, with a stated policy of neutrality, had been supplying both sides with information, financial loans and military hardware, in order to maintain the neutrality of the conflict. In 1985, anti-Iranians of south Lebanon, the same people who receive hundreds of millions of dollars of stolen Iranian money every year through their Shia relatives in Iran, instigated the "Iran-gate" fiasco which by 1987 had effectively prevented any military acquisition for the hollowed out military of Iran. This along with diminished oil production that had fallen to 800,000 barrels/day in 1987, as the result of strengthened Iraqi campaigns, had sounded the alarm bells about the imminent collapse of the Islamists republic in Iran. The US navy was then quickly dispatched to the gulf to force a cease fire on belligerent ‘victim’, Iran, under the pretex of protecting gulf shipping lanes.
By spring of 1988, Iraqi military offensives had retaken Faw peninsula in 3 days of battle. In May, Iraq captured Shalamcheh in only 8 hours, and in June they took Majnoon islands in only 4 hours. In the words of US military analysts, by July 1988 "…Tehran had ceased to exist as a military power in the middle east". Saddam's armies were once again heading into Iranian heartland and this time, there was nothing left to resist, much less to halt, their advance. It took yet another disaster; downing of IR 655, whether intentional, staged or accidental, to convince the Islamists to cease fire.
There is no reason to believe that US actions in forcing Iran into a cease fire with Iraq was for the Islamists’s benefit. The bigger threat would have been the long term invasion of southern Iran by Iraq, possible collapse and resurgence of another extremist regime in a fragmented Iran seeking long term warfare to recapture the occupied territories, and a military-political mess bigger than that of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Faced with such prospects, Islamists in Tehran finally agreed to a cease fire and accepted UN resolution 598 on July 18, 1988. Still, the regime did not feel safe after accepting the UN resolution 598 and cease fire with Iraq.
So many times in history have great nations fought each other by mobilizing their youth under various banners with leaders who promised them great victories. Yet, so many times the misery and despair of the war has turned the fighting armies against the charlatans who promised them so many lies. There is historical precedence that shows accelerated change in all societies after a period of warfare. Virtually all participants in WWI experienced social upheaval and revolutions in 1918 and years after. Bolshovik revolution of 1917 in Russia, German revolution of 1918-1919, demise of Ottoman empire and all others who experienced similar social upheavals to great extent as the direct result of the great war.
The Islamist occupying regime is no exception. Millions of mobilized veterans who had experienced the miseries and sacrifices of their comrades are now questioning the wisdom and promises of the regime during the war. They are now realizing the fact that every time their incompetent leaders, treasonous mullahs and thugs, used inflammatory language in pursuit of religious edicts in the most ignorant and uncivil way, that meant greater isolation for their country, hence fewer bullets and higher casualties for them at the frontline. Their just cause in fighting Saddam's rape of their country was drowned amid repressive Islamic practices and behavior.
Acceptance of UN resolution 598 prevented further degradation of regimes political and economic strength and the severely eroded popular support. However, regime was weak and aware of the danger from their own demoralized and propaganda filled veterans, who numbered in millions. The ingredients for a civil war or another revolution was available in ample quantities; devastation and misery, millions of armed and battle hardened veterans, a corrupt Islamic system that had squandered so many lives and country's wealth for so long and for nothing. Add to this the final ingredient, the only one under total control of the regime; the brutally suppressed opposition, which languished in prisons, that could instigate and lead the next uprising against the regime. It was the latter ingredient, and perhaps the weakest one, that became the focus of regimes criminal intent. Between August 1988 and December 1988, anywhere from 5,000 to 15,000+ political prisoners were murdered. Many were innocent bystanders in the streets, during demonstrations, when swept up by regime thugs in earlier years. Those deemed hard core were already murdered by the regime in '81-'83, all the rest were serving their bogus sentences at the time of their murder in '88.
In their memory, our classmates, our friends and our family; we will never forget.
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|Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day||Iterview with mother||Dec 02|
|احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱||Dec 02|
|Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day||46 days on hunger strike||Dec 01|
|Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti||In Barcelona||Nov 30|
|گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی||Nov 30|
|Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day||Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years||Nov 30|
|محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین||Nov 29|
|Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day||Kurdish Activist on Death Row||Nov 28|