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ASOODEH BEKHAB KE SHAHR DAR AMAN AST!

To all those Iran lovers I have this message “there is not going to be a war concerning Iran”.

To elaborate on this I need to draw your attention to facts behind the rhetoric’s, these rhetoric’s concern two countries US and Israel the hotpots of harsh words and threats….lets start with Israel.

ISRAELI THREAT

Most international concern about an Israeli air attack against the Iranian nuclear sites come from an operation that Israel carried out in 1981 against the Iraqi Osirak nuclear plant under construction at the time, lets look at the facts: in June 1981 Israeli war planes flew from Tel Aviv unarmed to Bushehr military base in Iran, the lack of ordinance on board allowed the planes to make the journey to Iran, at Bushehr base they were fuelled, armed and accompanied by Iranian Phantoms, they took out an over ground building complex and returned to Bushehr for refuelling and return to Israel….not much of an achievement given the Iranian role in the operation.

Today all the rhetoric’s are based on that ability to strike far and beyond, well the geopolitical map of the world has changed greatly since then, and to carry out an operation like that Israel requires to fly over the Islamic countries airspace carrying heavy ordnance and then try to cover a vast land like Iran to strike at nuclear sites which happens to be underground, well fortified and well defended, lets assume for the moment that such a feat was achieved against all odds of Islamic nations turning a blind eye at their rulers providing the necessary corridor for the Israeli jets to pass through, lets assume that they successfully carry out their raid without the loss of a single plane, and returned back to their bases, what they may have done has just postponed the Iranian nuclear research and progress by a couple of years by the western estimates at best but has not removed it all together. On the day that the world wakes up to such a news, the oil prices will soar by 50% in a volatile and recession stricken west, sending all other prices into a vertical rise, and all that happens even before Iran responds.

IRANIAN RESPONSE

In such scenario Iran may come out of Nuclear closet, to warn US against any follow up to Israeli attack while it targets Israel with conventional weapons, at this stage and any follow up by US, closing of Hormoz and taking out the Saudi oil production facilities will push the world from recession into depression, bringing China and Russia into equation, this means the whole idea is flaw from beginning and therefore not practical, since the threat of air strike by Israel is not factual and not practical, Israel resorted to its Jericho missile test a few weeks back to indicate that it can hit the Iranian nuclear installations by its intercontinental ballistic missile which requires no fly over the Islamic lands and can not be shot down, the flaw in this scenario lies in the missile itself, the accuracy of such a missile is within a few kilometres from any target, and it might take out a village with its habitants rather the target that it was intended for, the only way that the success of a missile strike can be assured is to load the missile with nuclear payload rather than conventional one, the flaw in this scenario lies in the deterrent value of the nuclear capability and not in its use, it is a political suicide which could drag the world into a nuclear conflict and will assure the destruction of Israel, where the policy was meant to save.

US POLICY

Because the Israeli rhetoric’s to use force is meant to influence the US thinking to direct its policies to its favour, then the more pressure that they could put on US through these Masculine talks and continuous air strike exercises the better results they would get from US to exercise pressure on Iran in the form of sanctions.

There are several reasons why US can not take military action against Iran, the best reason lies in its failure in Iraq and Afghanistan which has placed such a financial and human cost on the US, without result, United states made the same mistakes in Vietnam and Korea, and realistically is not in a position to start another war while the world is in recession and the elections are round the corner, should Obama be foolish enough to venture in such adventure, then the consequences of oil prices doubling up to start with, will put the prices of petrol up at the US pumps to the breaking point, this will not be acceptable by the American public who have to take the brunt of it, and the hope of Obama getting re elected simply fades away into distance.

USA is not interested in a war with Iran due to above argument and perhaps a hundred more reasons, but the well documented reason for that came to light just yesterday, this follows Iran’s shooting down America’s most advanced stealth aircraft over its territory, the aircraft carried the most up to date state of art and electronics aboard, its fall in adversary’s hand would have meant a serious set back to US military, therefore, the debate took place in the administration about the ways to recovering the craft or destroying it, the ways that were put forward ranged from commando raid to a missile strike to destroy the craft and all ideas were rejected since such recovery implementation would have been a declaration of war with Tehran and therefore it was “AVOIDED”.

All in All the Israeli war scenario reminds me of the stand off between the lion and the man…the story goes that: a scholar was passing through the woods and noticed a lion standing in front of a man, the lion kept roaring and at the same time kept breaking wind, the scholar was amazed at the lion’s behaviour, so approached the lion and asked why you keep roaring, the lion replied “to frighten the man”, asked why you are breaking wind, the lion replied “ because I am frightened of man”.

Today’s ups and downs in the regional politics is not about who attacks first, but who blinks first, the rivalries between Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia is ripe in dominating the Middle East as the super powers, in reality the rivalry is between Israel and Iran trying to shape the regions politics to their favour, with Saudi Arabia providing the log for the fire, we have entered the big politics at play, where one intends to break the other through means of mechanisms at their disposal, dirty politics are back to shape our region and the way we think, but war is not one of them.