The syrian dilemma

The syrian dilemma
by Mardom Mazloom
04-Jun-2012
 

The revolt in Syria does not differ from those that erupted in Tunisia, Bahrain, Egypt or Yemen: it is a revolt against authoritarianism, arbitrariness of the state and corruption.

The response of Assad was a brutal repression against, essentially, non-violent demonstrators. This state of violence has favored the emergence of a self-defense movement, but also the militarization of certain sections of the insurgency. In response to the exploitation of minorities by the Syrian government, Sunni armed groups and fighters of Al Qaeda have infiltrated Syria from Lebanon and Iraq. In many areas, the conflict turned into armed struggle and guerrilla warfare, taking a religious turn.

Arab Gulf leaders, including those of Saudi Arabia, fear the spread of Arab Spring (seeing in Iran the main threat) and they are even trying to present the conflict as a theological war Sunnites against Alawites and Shiites.

Moreover, the main threat for Syria and the region is the extension of a sectarian war.

But what to do?

François Mitterand used to say “do not add war to war”, and he was right. Foreign military intervention is rarely a positive action, the war in Iraq has permanently destroyed the country and it will take decades to rebuild it. That of the west in Afghanistan is a fiasco and on the departure of the western countries, the country will be even more devastated than after the Soviet withdrawal.

With the actual situation in the region, any military action in Syria will lead to a flashover but doing nothing is humanly impossible.

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mousa67

first: assad, second: khameni & ahmadinejad.

by mousa67 on

third: no money, no morning cafe latte if you are paid by khameni  & ahmadinejad to defend them & act big on internet from the comfort of your house in london. 

that's the real dilema.


Mardom Mazloom

Rea

by Mardom Mazloom on

Yes, the ideal scenario would be to allow the peacemakers of the United Nations to stop the bloodshed in Syria, especially when Kofi Annan recently admitted that the country has reached the point of no return.

Azarbanoo, when you see how the satanic republic is deploying Iran's money to keep Assad alive, the only wish is that Assad goes to hell, see papa Hafez and Khomeini, and bring the horde of mullahs with him.


Mardom Mazloom

یارو رو تو ده راه نمیدادن سراغ کدخدا رو میگرفت!

Mardom Mazloom


گوشت کیلو ۲۸۰۰۰ تومن رو برای مردم مهیا بکنید، آبتنی تو حیفا پیشکشتون.


تازه حاجی مامور !

تو کز محنت دیگران بیغمی... نشاید که نامت نهند آدمی !


Rea

Agree, true dilemma

by Rea on

One can only hope that Assad will eventually accept UN peacekeepers (the kind we'd had in the ex-Yu).

@APforSM: Apart from setting himself as a lifetime president/prime minister, what credibility the Russian oligarch has ?  Nada, rien, niente.


مآمور

بهر آزادی دمشق

مآمور


بهر آزادی دمشق از حیفا باید گذشت
از کنار بیت نوری خالی بند باید گذشت

I wear an Omega watch


مآمور

Amir Parviz, u got it

by مآمور on

  this situation gives one a sense of satisfaction for what the USA did to the late shah, they betrayed an ally like him.....

Yes, In Iran, we do support our friends who have been royal to us unlike what US does to its friends like shah, hosni,ghaddafi, saleh and the last but not least Sadam!!

I wear an Omega watch


Azarbanoo

ASsad is following the IRR/IRI Style of

by Azarbanoo on

Killing innocent oppositins as directed by VV of IRAN.


Mardom Mazloom

APfS I don't live in the US, where do u live?

by Mardom Mazloom on

It's not because we feel/think things in a way that things should/will happen on that way.

It's obvious that it's hard for dictators to step down, but if Assad has an epsilon of love for his country, as the late Shah had for Iran, he should leave the power.

The US administration is even pressing that proposition, and last month in camp David, Medvedev said that he preferred this option to other transitions in the Arab upheaval

Read the New York Times article for more information!


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

MM I hope you are not living in the USA

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

Do you seriously think he will leave Syria?  He is a fighting personality, in good health with a large and loyal military base of support that has not cracked under the pressure of losing thousands of soldiers.  Meanwhile the Russians and Chinese won't support him to leave, Putin and China's view on meddling by outside powers and deliving arms has been long made crystal clear, they both would rather Assad handle this the same way Putin handled Chechnya or the Chinese handle their religous extremists, at a time when Assad has made democratic concessions and the opposition mocked them.  China and Russia have the most to lose if he just leaves, because they themselves have a massive muslim population that can be used against them, if the muslims have an example or a hope of beating the government power.  As for the USA, this was the most stupid high risk idea for them, to enter yet another regime change supporting anti-democratic extremists where they will fail while strengthening both russia and chinas hand.  And how do they think the future Assad Government will serve them now? 

In the meanwhile the USA can't even send a toilet brush to Afghanistan without Russia and Can't keep its own economy from collapse with out China and in 5 years time the USA is on course for being only a fraction of the power it is today, stuck in a deep depression, struggling to make the interest payments and putting all military spending on the credit card. 

Actually I have to admit, this situation gives one a sense of satisfaction for what the USA did to the late shah, they betrayed an ally like him and as a direct result the USA is now dependent on both russia and china, the USA is absorbing losses while the others grow rapidly and handle the USA with ease.  They never realized the importance of the alliance with iran.


Mardom Mazloom

Vildemose jan,

by Mardom Mazloom on

Sans rancune (no hard feelings) :) 
Ma'moor, As a "politician", Ahmadinejad has the duty to protect Iran's interests at international level. He fails to do it, because he ain't a politician, he's just a populist traitor selected by Khamenei, who says/acts what he thinks that can benefit him.

AmirParviz, the movement in Syria wasn’t so radicalized. It's Assad who by using modern tanks against his own civilians, brought the situation to this 'no-return' point. I think that the best thing is that he accepts to leave just like what Saleh did in Yemen.


amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

But what to do?

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on

The situation in Syria is that the Sunni Majority mostly support Assad as do Alawites, so really the best thing would be for the west and arabs to stop arming the opposition fighters as the Majority Sunni Armed Forces are United, Larger and Stronger than the opposition Forces. 

Otherwise the next best thing to do is to back the largest and strongest group to bring an end to the violence in the shortest possible time frame.  Assad Leaving and anti-secular extremists filling in the power vaccum is even worse than a civil war.  Clearly Russia and China are not going to turn their backs on their ally, as russia and china's credibility and national honor would not stand for much after doing that.  That is the one big advantage Russia and China Have over the USA and to lose that would be of no benefit to them.


vildemose

 Mamoor, you're so

by vildemose on

 Mamoor, you're so lovely...

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


vildemose

khoda mamoori? Is that

by vildemose on

khoda mamoori? Is that your final answer?? You throw the world "politician" with alarming ease...

Mamooti is certainly a politician of hojatieh and jamakaran chah caliber.  BTW, have you dialed the "messiah" lately? Mamooti has set up a direct hot line to his humble abode 20 feet under? ;)

 //www.csmonitor.com/2006/0104/p0s02-wome.html

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


مآمور

شما هم خانم هستید و هم کدبانو

مآمور


 آن حرفها مال بلاگ شازده بود!! با هیچ عزیزی اینجا مشکلی ندارم

I wear an Omega watch


مآمور

Ahmadi is a politician,

by مآمور on

u and me r not

I wear an Omega watch


vildemose

 vay mamoori cheghadar

by vildemose on

 vay mamoori cheghadar ghashang farsi yad gerfteh. Shoma chand vaghteh az hozeh ghom faregholtahsil shodi?? Afarin be shoma ke mitoonid be in saleesi va ravani aghayedtoon ro ba ma kafaroon va aftab mahtab dideh va Na-kadbanooha dar meeyoun bezarid..

Homa dar hosayeh ghom ba khanoom ben ladan neshast va bar kahasti dashtid ya faght ba hasan nassrallheyeh topoli??

 

All Oppression Creates a State of War--Simone De Beauvoir


Mardom Mazloom

Ma'moor joon

by Mardom Mazloom on

Arab Gulf leaders are not the persian Gulf. Ask Mamooti he'll tell you 


Mamooti loves Al-khalij ...


مآمور

بهایسم و وهابیسیم بردار هستند

مآمور


 Arab Gulf leaders

Iranians call that persian gulf

I wear an Omega watch