Evaluation of a Military Scenario

by masoudA

Let me say in advance - RIGHT NOW and at this stage of the Green movement the worst thing the world can do is to engage IR militarily. However, the following is to make all of us think and prepare for potential scenarios in the future. This is an evaluation of a potential scenario to promote brainstorm on possibilities. I do foresee an armed confrontation needed to disarm the last of those who may be willing to take arms defending the dictator - but I think Iranians will be able to take care of that themselves. 

As most of you know - an 8000+ man USA/NATO/Afghan force initiated a military surge against Taliban in Afghanistan last week. Here I want to examine what are the things that could happen, if such force with full air support enters Iran from the west, let's say towards Kermanshah. What do you think happens in the first hours ?

Let me start with:

1- IR propaganda machine will issue a statement: USA is helping Kurds to separate from Iran.

2- How many armed fighting man IR has in all of the City of Kermanshah? I have no clue, but I am guessing 10,000. When I say armed fighting men - I mean Pasdars and Basij that will pick arms to confront an ivading military. Because their training is against domestic foes - I think majority of this force will flea or hide to later engage in gorilla style defense. I foresee very few of them to be willing to confront a military head to head - knowing they will be devasted from air.

just thinking out loud......

3- How would Artesh (Iran Military not IR military) react? How would the local Police (Niroohaye Entezami) react? I think they will stay neutral as they have in the last 30 years. Or if they are positioned - they will do the same thing Sadam Army did - knowing their resistance will be devastated due to lack of air support.

4- How would Kermanshah population react?


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by masoudA on

what are you 12? 


Ask Mahmoudg

by Abarmard on

He is another member who also dreams about the US invasion of Iran.

I say, get together and dream on why alone?



by masoudA on

Nobody suggested Iranians will start a roses parade for Americans or any invading army.   The question is how will they react?   Are they going to pick up arms defending the country while we have this government in place?   Will they behave the way they did the last time allied forces entered Iran some 50 years ago?  Remember?  nobody lifted a finger - and that was when we had a government people did not despise!!  There was nop welcoming parades - but therew as no resistance either.    My point is - if such invasion occurs, people will start hunting down the mullahs not the Americans.   And again - this is the worst time for Americans or anyone else to engage in a military strike against Iran.   Green is doing well and will take care of the business.   The best Americans can do is to help Green with Telecom. 


MasoudA, Iranians will not welcome American troops- get real

by bomannyali on

MasoudA assumes that pockets of resistance here and there will aid American troops and shower them with love, or that the Iranians will welcome them.

Absolutely wrong.  People tend to view an invading army in two senses, one that is political and another that is personal.

Lets assume that an Iranian Kud gets excited about the political ramifications of an invasion, however from a personal level, he will feel "less of a man."  It would be a hugh assault on his "manhood" and "gheirat" to accept foreign presence.

Moreover, regardless of how much American troops undergo sensitivity and cultural training, there is bound to be a unit or a soldier who will commit an atrocious act against Iranian civilians, like rape or accidental or intentional shooting and killing.  Within a manner of days of such an action regardless of how small in scope it might be, the anti- American forces and people would capitalize on that to spread the news and in no time you will see Iranians stand firmly against American forces.




by masoudA on

Sargord - You are as vague as your mosaic defense strategy.  

Here is what would happen if a USA or allied force enters Iran.

1- IR may succeed in getting one or maybe two planes off the ground - but they would either return or get shot-down.

2- There will not be a head to head confrontation with the invading force - IR forces (not Iranian armed forces) will try to retrieve to the nearest City and engage in gorilla warefare.   The problem is the nearest city is Kermanshah where armed kurd fighters have been waiting a long time for this sort of opportunity.

3- Iranian armed forces will react as Iraqi armed forces did in the 2nd gulf war - they will sit in their positions without firing a shot.

4- Mullahs start disappearing

5- People start looking for them. 


Vildmose jaan- You are correct in your assumption.   IR considers Iranians as hostages - and they may indeed start setting off bombs in crowded places,..... they will also try to have their terror networks engage in some missions in Europe.


Remember, We are dealing

by vildemose on

Remember, We are dealing with Khomeinist of the most un-Iranian kind.

Khomeini openly declared his utter disinterest, nay contempt, for the welfare, safety, and national integrity of Iran

IRI's ultimate goal is to turn Iran into a peasant state. Therefore, they don't care less if Iran is bombed or not.

 If Iran is reduced to a peasant state living a hand to mouth existance, religious fanaticism will be strengthened to keep political Islam and it's prophecy alive...It is Iranian advancement that threatens the mullahs.

Sargord Pirouz

Well, Masoud, as stated in

by Sargord Pirouz on

Well, Masoud, as stated in my previous comment, the US military build up will be obvious. Iran's military will activate its war plan according to the Mosaic doctrine, which provides an irregular, asymmetrical response. The initial US air bombardment will produce Iranian casualties, which will be reported. The Iranian people will respond accordingly. It will be a repeat of 1980, only this time Iranian forces are better prepared. 

I would expect Iran's irregular forces, acting upon the Mosaic doctrine, to respond at least as well as Iraqi insurgents, but in much larger scope and with better weapons stocks. Keep in mind, Iraqi insurgents- which never exceeded more than a few thousand in total- inflicted over 35,000 casualties on the most powerful nation on earth.

But Masoud, let's be realistic- shall we? Iran is not Iraq. It is that much harder a nut to crack than Iraq. Do you think the US military and the American people want a repeat of the Iraq War experience? (They're currently gambling on escalation just to get out of Afghanistan.) And tell me, what sensible Iranian wishes to see Kermanshah reduced to the level of Fallujah?  You'd have to be filled with blinding political hate to even suggest the good people of Kermanshah be subjected to this kind of thing. Or be totally naive about the realities of war- which is surprising given Iranians' experiences during the Imposed War. Or did your family skip that chapter of Iranian history entirely?



by masoudA on

Let for the "What if" question - just stick to addressing the thread.

Again - let's assume such army of only 8000 men with full air support enters Iran.   What would you do?   what would people in Kermanshah do?   What would the Basij and Pasdars do?  what would the Iranian Army do?   what would Khamenei do?  but most importantly what do people of Kermanshah do?  What would the people of Tehran and other major cities do? 

You seem to suggest some armed forces from Iran will confront the invading forces somewhere beween the border and Kermanshah.   Can you tell me how this force is going to get there without being devastated from the air?  

BTW - I personally think IR has zero capability for any military confrontation - but what they will do is to set-off some bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan - or maybe even somewhere in Europe. 

Sargord Pirouz

Masoud, what you're

by Sargord Pirouz on

Masoud, what you're envisioning is one US division striking east from Iraq toward Kermanshah. First off, that is an insufficient US force with which to initiate a proper ground invasion and occupation of Iran, with the ultimate goal of reaching Tehran and attempting to impose a new puppet government. Second, for a US force to prepare and mass for such an invasion, the Iranians will be provided with plenty of heads up time. Third, this invasion approach will facilitate dangerously long and exposed supply lines (much of it through Iraq, then into more rugged terrain in Iran). It actually makes more sense to attack through Khuzestan, for a variety of reasons).

1. First off, the people of Iran would respond to this invasion as they did in September 1980. "Propaganda" as you put it would not be limited to "USA is helping Kurds separate from Iran." Rather, the overall perception would be the US has invaded and occupied Iran, as they have in Iraq and Afghanistan. The call would be to defend the Meehan, plain and simple.

2. The 28th Infantry Division and 81st Armored Division are positioned at Kermanshah province. It is not expected that these units' heavy equipmemnt would survive. However, given the lead up to the US invasion, the IRGC would implement the Mosaic Doctrine, which would include the military personnel from these Artesh divisions as well as IRGC and Basij units. Total numbers of Iranian combatants would conceivably outnumber American forces in a highly irregular fight, which has been prearranged and organized.

3. I would expect Iranian forces to react in the same manner as the Imposed War: offering a determined resistance. Unlike 1980, Iranian forces are stronger, better equipped and organized to engage an invasion/occupation force in a highly irregular fight. On the other hand, the US is a far more powerful adversary than Iraq in 1980. It would be something of a replay of Iraq, only the Iranians have all the benefits of hindsight as to what has worked in the Iraqi insurgency, as well as lessons learned in Lebanon's 33-Day War. In addition, limited assistance would most likely be provided against US supply columns in Iraq, from irregular Iraqi Shia forces.

3. The poor population of Kermanshah would suffer a similar fate as the Iraqi people have in places such as Fallujah and Tal Afar. It would be a living hell for the people of Kermanshah, Masoud.