The IRI will eventually collapse. It’s inevitable. No dictatorship survives an educated, modern (mostly modern) society like Iran. But how do you think it will meet its end? Please vote. Here are the options:
1) Overthrown in a bloody revolution / uprising;
2) Internal coup by a small cadre of its security forces who see the regime as being un-reformable and doomed in its current form;
3) Reform by political process as a result of elections;
4) “Bloodless coup” by a group of its ruling elite who have the backing of the security forces;
5) Desertion of its political and military elite as a result of crippling economic sanctions;
6) Military attack by a foreign force.
7) Combination of several of these factors (specify which ones).
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dear VPK, I can share your goals,but not your strategy
by bushtheliberator on Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:30 AM PDTWhen Iranians establish a secular democratic republic,then I'll spring for the cake, icecream,and party hats.If you think you can get there without a civil war, go for it.
Let's all hope for no. 3
by Rea on Mon Nov 01, 2010 04:40 AM PDTIt may take longer but it will spare lives.
bushtheliberator
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 01, 2010 03:11 AM PDTYou are welcome about the offer. Don't turn it down yet.
Regarding the struggle in Iran I tell you. It is not between moderate or radical Islam. It is not a struggle withing Islam. That is where your experts are wrong. Iti s a struggle for freedom FROM Islam. We don't want a moderate Islam we want NO Islam.
Western Orientalists do not see this. They just want to go back to the time where Muslims were well behaved and subservient. Many of us Iranians want to break free of Islam altogether. That is where the struggle lies.
That is what intellectuals and politicians do not want to admit. In fact they try to cover it and keep us in the dark at every step. Because when that happens Iran will flower again. That is what so many want to prevent.
dear VPK , that IS the " Idea " !!! You're a neo-neo-con. !
by bushtheliberator on Sun Oct 31, 2010 06:07 PM PDTIran's democratization struggle is the most crucial battlefield of the Long War.But unlike most visitors here, I'm not asking for, or expecting the IRI's sudden demise.I much prefer this struggle be WITHIN Islam, and between Najaf, and Qom> the most potent force needed then is righteous Islam.
Thanks for the offer to help,but you need to get your own Taliban-Thugs off your back first.
Before you pull the trigger,check out YouTube Iraqi mash-up.
by bushtheliberator on Sun Oct 31, 2010 04:35 PM PDTdear Parthianshot91,
National Public Radio led me to
" I Shot You Babe ", DJ Foundations
Let's hope those sly Persians can democratize their society with a lot less Sonny & Cher.
Eshtebah kardam
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Oct 31, 2010 01:05 PM PDTke be in shakhs jabab daram. Vagteh khodam ra dige talaf nemikonm.
مشخصه که
FesenjoonSun Oct 31, 2010 12:49 PM PDT
مشخصه که بچهای هنوز.
Re: lol
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Oct 31, 2010 11:50 AM PDTDo you ever say anything meaningful. Or is it just sarcasm to push your anti Iranian agenda?
lol...
by Fesenjoon on Sun Oct 31, 2010 07:23 AM PDT"The IRI is weak"?
Hah! Ive heard that one for 30 years now. Keep on dreaming.
Parthianshot91
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Oct 31, 2010 03:40 AM PDTI agree with you once again 100 %. I vividly remember my father saying: "Shah is solid like a mountain" about 6 months before Shah left Iran! People do not realize how weak IRI hold on people is. Their only control is military.
Many seemingly unmovable governments have fallen. Many stranger things happened. I love to see the expression on the faces of some people when IRI is gone. The important thing is to be prepared to deal with what comes next.
bushtheliberator
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Oct 31, 2010 03:35 AM PDTHere is an idea. Once the IRI is replaced US should pay Iran to take care of Afghanistan. This will save you lives and money. I bet post IRI Iran will be able to take care of the Taliban for half what you are spending now. Plus we will also get it right. I had an American friend of mine suggest just that. He said and I quote "The Iranians are Afghanistan's natural overlords"; he was very right. Afghans will naturally fall in line under Iranian supervision.
I know some neocon types dream of dividing Iran. The reverse is what it needed. To reunite all the parts of Greater Iran in order to establish order and sanity.Or else you have to spend countless billions of US dollars forever to keep the peace.
None needs to invade
by Parthianshot91 on Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:25 AM PDTIf any war breaks outs, the u.s can do it's part by bombing the irgc bases, they're the only thing that are keeping the Islamic republic regime together, without them they pose no threat to the people.
--------------------------------------------------------------
"They are not afraid of the ideology alone, but of the detemination and will of the men behind it"
"I'd rather be hated for w
It's YOUR fkd-up country,but I'm the ONLY voter for #3 :Reform
by bushtheliberator on Sun Oct 31, 2010 12:15 AM PDTYour Least Informed about Iran Visitor still sees 3., Reform as the ONLY choice that doesn't risk a descent into chaos,& national destruction.I can't see the IRI going down without a fight. or the emergence of a democratic republic as the assured outcome.
As to #6,so sorry, but we're VERY busy liberating other folks at this time.We're spending $1.5 million/day non-military on a US policy of regime change in Iran, but Iranians will need to do their own heavy lifting
They said the same about shah
by Parthianshot91 on Sat Oct 30, 2010 09:06 PM PDTMany back then never even dreamed of over throwing the shah, now we have a weaker stupider government that barely has any support amongst the population. The only problem is, every year this govenment is in power, Iran goes backward and not forward, so we can't wait too long for the sake of our nation and people.
--------------------------------------------------------------
"They are not afraid of the ideology alone, but of the detemination and will of the men behind it"
"I'd rather be hated for w
diff combination of 1, 5, and 6
by Parthianshot91 on Sat Oct 30, 2010 09:01 PM PDTPeople like me will make number 1 a reality :)
-------------------------------
"They are not afraid of the ideology alone, but of the detemination and will of the men behind it"
"I'd rather be hated for w
Onlyiran
by Majid on Sat Oct 30, 2010 05:13 PM PDTIf I was so disliked and so unwanted and hated in a web site (which I wasn't welcomed there to begin with) as this guy is I would disappear like a fart in a wind!
He just doesn't get it does he?
Tahgord
by Onlyiran on Sat Oct 30, 2010 04:47 PM PDTNo one asked for your opinion. And no one is interested in reading your stupid blog. Get lost.
Very interesting. No reform option
by Onlyiran on Sat Oct 30, 2010 04:48 PM PDTNo one has selected the "reform through elections" option. I share that sentiment. The IRI is nor reformable, and I said as much in a previous blog.
//iranian.com/main/blog/onlyiran/why-iri-cannot-be-reformed-comparative-look
I also have to say that I am fearful that what "fesenjoon" says may be correct. Let's hope not.
Thank you all--except for Tahgord-- for your comments.
Ommmmran
by Fesenjoon on Sat Oct 30, 2010 12:27 PM PDTI hate to break it to you guys, but it will actually turn out to be:
8. This regime will outlive us all. Our grandchildren will witness a country brimming with political chaos and turmoil, but still, called The Islamic Republic of Iran. And some poeple here will still be hoping for another revolution.
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" --Blaise Pascal
When it happens and I know it will happen
by Bavafa on Sat Oct 30, 2010 09:41 AM PDTI will hope that Iranians people take the proper care to ensure a democratic, secular and independent system is put in place and will not be hijacked or derailed by internal thugs or external powers
Mehrdad
```
by oktaby on Sat Oct 30, 2010 09:15 AM PDT#6
I would modify phrasing of 6 by replacing 'a' with 'yet another'.
#2 started before June 2009 puppet show
OKtaby
...
by Red Wine on Sat Oct 30, 2010 08:05 AM PDT1,2 and 8 as how said Mr Amir Kabir .
Thank you for your blog dear friend OnlyIran.
..
by maziar 58 on Sat Oct 30, 2010 08:03 AM PDT8,7,6,1
be omeede hagh. Maziar
I, 2 or 4
by Anonymous Observer on Sat Oct 30, 2010 08:01 AM PDTor a combination thereof.
8) Head first in the toilet
by Shazde Asdola Mirza on Sat Oct 30, 2010 07:56 AM PDTEvery voice counts! Every action counts!
HaHaHa! The folly of
by Sargord Pirouz on Sat Oct 30, 2010 06:47 AM PDTHaHaHa! The folly of predicting Iran's second revolution again:
//iranian.com/main/blog/sargord-pirouz/ir...
I daresay...
by comrade on Sat Oct 30, 2010 06:18 AM PDTI don't see it happening in my lifetime. I don't take the "collective wish" as evidence.
The biggest challenge for IRI is how its ruling bunch will fill the void of leadership after Khamenei's death. There are many factors involved, some of which revolve around the question "who will die first?".
Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.
#1, unfortunately.
by Roozbeh_Gilani on Sat Oct 30, 2010 05:56 AM PDTAnd the bloodshed will be inversely proportional to the number of social classes who'd participate in the uprising. Unlike what some believe or claim, the regime will not show much resistance if the opposition on the streets and factories are large enough and more importantly organised and armed to fight back, bullet with bullet.
The other options you mentioned will not lead to complete dismantling and removal of this calamity called "political islam" from our land.
"Personal business must yield to collective interest."
Combination of 2 & 8 !!!!
by amirkabear4u on Sat Oct 30, 2010 04:53 AM PDTI think it would be Internal coup by a small cadre of its security forces who see the regime as being un-reformable and doomed in its current form with the backing of other forces (NOT foriegn)
8) other (NOT foreign) forces !!!!!
2; 4; 5
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat Oct 30, 2010 06:25 AM PDTOr some combination of those.Khamenei will die or is helped out to the next world. Then they figure they might as well get on to "reform".