Fighting Words

fair, be fair

what on earth do you actually know about how bad it's been in egypt either now or before? 

and yes i will take iran's official figures over individual claims any day. theirs is far more likely to be closer to the truth. this is what my experience has taught me in the past 30 years of listening to ignorant lies propagated by iranians abroad. we should adhere to some semblance of truth in the information we pass on if we expect our governments to do the same.

i would go with the official figure then if you will permit. this way at least i can treat all countries the same and use their official figures. no country has flawless figures, btw. nowhere near it.

on what iranians deserve, thanks for the reminder. i never said we have to settle for less. this is what you misunderstand about me. i try to describe what i understand to be the actual turn of events. that's only fair, fair. if they resemble what i would like to see happen, that's a bonus.

The female apologist says:

"egypt is as brutal as it gets, nothing like iran today."

If that isn't enough to boil your blood, I don't know what is? Now, are we talking about the same Iran? Might this be "Planet Iran" in the constellation La La that this regime chest beater residing in the west is talking about?

Besides, Why is NILOUFAR living in the big bad west? Why doesn't she don a veil that she so believes is appropriate for her Iranian counterparts and join the happy and content crowd and enjoy the economic prosperity that she blogs about?

Delusional? Nah, this is downright nutty!

____________

IRAN FIRST

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Thanks Vildemose Jaan

I consider this somewhat of a public service for NP.  Someone needs to hold up a mirror to her face so that she can see who--and what-- he really is.

Only Iran: hear, hear..

Only Iran:

hear, hear..

Stop trying to change the subject Niloufar

It's not just a "violent revolution."  In Iran, the violence hasn't stopped since the revolution.  more than 3500 people have been executed since 2005.  How long had that been since the "revolution", 26 years?  Talk about "beating a revolutionary chest!!"  

More than a 110 have been executed since the beginning of 2011, which in and of itself is many times more than the entire number of those executed during 31 years of Mobarak's reign.  But I guess all of that is justified so long as the IR "wins" and "comes out on top" in some power struggle, right?  The sacrifice of Iranians' lives and their oppression is A-OK with you so long as the power game is won?  Is this because you can sit comfortably in the UK and not have to endure the hardships, and travel to Iran for Norouz?  

Look--the sad truth is that you're no different than those you lament.  You are two sides of the same coin.  The U.S. sacrifices other nations' lives for its power struggle and you sacrifice your own people's lives.  In fact, coming to think about it, you rank much lower than the "West" that you hate so much (yet comfortably reside in).  The "West" doesn't bring mayhem on its own people to win power struggles.  You do!!!

onlyiran, failing miserably

so your point is that iran had a violent revolution and let's also remember eight years of war. well spotted. in case you missed it, that phase is over.

egypt is as brutal as it gets, nothing like iran today.

you should read abarmard's latest comments he wrote from inside iran. made me more optimistic about the idea of going home this norooz.

but don't mind me. you go ahead beating your revolutionary chest. who knows, you may be proved right.

but my guess is that you are exaggeratnig as usual. worse still, you contradict reality.

iran has a leadership role in the current turn of events. many are asking if some of the region's countries will toe the iranian line once the dust settles. regardless of how it all ends, iran is very likely to come out of the shift in alliances as one of the biggest winners. i think turkey could win even more.

peace

Nice Try NP- But try again please!

I talk about West residing IR propagandists and.... never mind...

It's NOT all in a name NP.  True that Mobarak has been ruling by "emergency rule," but the IR has been executing people by the thousands by calling them "Mohareb" and "mofsed-e-fel-arz."  Which one is worst?  

Mobarak is a dictator and it's time for him to go.  The Egyptian people should be the only ones determining their destiny.  More power to them.  That being said, how many people has Mobarak executed in the past 31 years of his rule?  How many has the IR?  Get  the picture? I'm sure you do, but at the same time, I'm sure that you'll try to divert attention and talk about something else.   

Sooooo, no....the level of brutality between the two regime doesn't even compare.  Nice try though, but you failed miserably.  Try again!!

PS- you should go to Iran for Norouz.  It's "Eidi" time, isn't it...(wink wink)? :-)) 

no dice

That is ridiculous- you have no estimate other than official figures from the islamic republic as to how many were killed in Iran, so don't try to pull that one.  How many kahrizak's and mass rapes have happened in Egypt in the last 6 days?  And has Mubarak gone on TV declaring war on the Egyptian people calling them "dirt and dust" and foreign agents?  Please, give me a break.

As far as political prisoners in Egypt, yes, estimates range in the several thousand for the number of Egyptian political prisoners.  By contrast, that many political prisoners were executed over just a couple of days during the islamic republic.  And the islamic republic holds the world record for executions- one every 8 hours just this year alone- all in the name of "God" of course.  So the "god thing" as you put it is indeed not only brutal, but a guarantor of brutality.

The people of Iran's grievances are every bit as blatant as the people of Egypt's, and that is clear as crystal.  The demonstrations we saw in Iran were larger than the ones we saw in Egypt, and they called for change, just like Egyptians do today.  Stop trying to drown out, suppress, and minimize the voice of the Iranian people, and call them merely "the losing faction", that is despicable and expected from regime and its lackeys.

In Iran, people also have revolted against their leadership, and are every bit as hungry and oppressed as Egyptians.  The difference is, mubarak does not have a basij or hezbollah or IRGC that he could count on to massacre his people like mullahs do.

The Iranian people deserve just as much as the Egyptian people to be free,and to demand that their government, which has failed them miserably for 32 years, step down.  I don't see why it is ok for Egyptians to not settle for any less, but for us we have to settle.  And I don't see where you or anyone is justified playing down the demands of the Iranian people and the sacrifices we have made to achieve those demands.

fair

do you really know how many political prisoners there are in egypt? how many have been killed or tortured? it is not the 'god' thing that is brutal, but the regime's brutality. both countries have plenty of it, and egypt has no better record than iran. already in just a few days more protesters have been murdered than during months of disturbances in Iran. what does that tell you?

re. the military, it was the same in 1978. when the people's grievances are so blatant and the majority support regime change, then the military will step aside. you would see the same in iran today if it happened.

the 2009 riots were directly related to the elections. the losing faction was upset and wanted to overturn the results.

in egypt, people revolted because they are hungry and oppressed, and they have no trust in their leadership any more. this has not happened in iran yet.

if it wasn't (to marhoum)

for these aipac vultures, i guess we would also be campaigning against iran's government. not for moussavi though.

hard to strike the right balance... but soon as this sanctions lark is over, i will be acting very differently.

peace

Brutality and brutality-NP

To call the Egyptian system more authoritarian than the one in Iran is a joke.  The system occupying Iran dictates every aspect of your private life, not just political leanings, it equates opposition to the leader as figthting with God and punishable by death.  Had a secular leader in Iran called for the overthrow of VF, he or she definitely would have been arrested and executed after being proven in a 15 minute trial that he or she was fighting God.  This is clear and indisputable.

That you don't have in Egypt.

Another thing you don't have in Egypt (or pre revolution Iran) is an anti national ideological armed forces. You saw yesterday that the Egyptian army said they yield to the people and their opinion.  When was the last time you heard Mohammad Ali Jaafari say something like that?  And I am not even talking about the multiple layers of paramilitary death squad brown shirts like ansare hezbollah,sarallah, basij, and so on that the regime has designed and built and invested heavily in to terrorize the people of Iran.  These terrorists have not hesitated and will not hesitate to use violence, rape, torture, execution, murder, and any form of intimidation to keep their dictator in power.  You see how Egyptian security was unable and unwilling to do even a fraction of that after less than a week of seeing public demands.

Furthermore, to call the green movement disgruntled and badly behaved is a pretty below the belt cheap shot.  On the contrary, this movement has inspired the world (including the Arab world which is following suit right now), was very civilized and nonviolent, and it was the other side which was barbaric, draconain, brutal, dictatorial, and uncivilized to the hilt.  Everybody here including yourself know that.

I could go and on, but I have made my point.  So why don't you try this sort of analysis on people who don't know better, because it won't work on people who actually have had to live under the islamic republic that you try (and fail) to whitewash.

Mammad and election shock! (to NP)

MDs say as a result of certain shocks (e.g, a bad cold) one can partially loose his/her sense of smell or taste. I am afraid Mammad partially lost his sense of objectivity as a result of Election shock!  His analysis are still very worth reading though.

The mere fact that after two years of most savage crack-down IR

still needs to kill, arrest , incarcerate, torture,.... Iranian people shows how unsuccesful and desperate it has been in its effort to put an end to demoracy movement in Iran. The fact that most vile apologists of IR on this page support your view on this point , should give you a wake up call.

P.S. Just as a curiousity , do you have any contacts, understanding, attachment to any of the on going social movements in Iran? Please be specific, which one and  exactly what have you done to support them?

yes, unfortunately (marhoum)

that sentence does not make much sense.

- the subsidy cuts are not the exact same. egypt has no petrol subsidy similar to iran's.

- the iranian rial is not devalued simply because the economic fundamentals are ok and the balance of trade is healthy. egypt's economy has virtually collapsed. and, iran is increasingly moving into imports of higher (and so more expensive) technologies, so a stronger currency is preferred. then those chinese imports are even cheaper, and we save more for capital investments!

- strictly speaking, petrodollars are not 'cheap'. given all the pain caused to the region, they are not even 'easy'. use of 'flooding' seems like an overstatement.

change the term 'mafia-like groups' to 'bazaaris' and suddenly the import-export business seems normal again. iran is a nation built on trade. and the world is awash with chinese exports. but trade with china would be mafioso if iran does it?

oil prices rose again. iran's foreign currency reserves are at an all time high. and they just announced Iran to open biggest oil refinery in ME

I agree! (to NP)

I agree, I also saw the same issue that you pointed out:

"Make no mistake. Elimination of subsidies in Iran is exactly the same
sort of policy, except that the Ahmadinejad administration has not
devalued Iran's rial, because the cheap dollar is used by the Mafia-like
groups that are linked with the hardliners to flood Iran with imports
from the far East and enrich themselves."

.... Mafia-like groups in Iran have been there for many years. 

marhoum

it's quite good. he is very thorough. didn't check any of the links but looked very well researched.

on the negative side, his economic analysis is shaky especially when it descends into mafia jibes. and then it gets increasingly promotional as it clearly pushes a green renewal with a (yet another) target date. this one has an economic disaster attached to it too!

this year's norooz promises to be special. may be i'll go...!

great analysis otherwise though. found it educational. his weakness is his partisan greenness.* so he ends up exaggerating tboth he role of the greens and  iran's weaknesses, like the poverty rate. iran's per capita income is far higher than egypt's. for that reason, we are not talking the same depth of poverty. millions of egyptians can't afford food any more. and their unemployment rate is far higher than iran's while their population is larger.

so drawing a parallel between this type of rioting** with iran's post-election disturbances in the first place is perhaps driven by an attempt at piggy-backing on the arab freedom wave. with a near-wish for an economic meltdown (some eidi), providing great opportunities for those who seek it.***

what's your take?

*i've said this to him before. so this is not qaybat! :) 

** you can see why his mind went in the 'economic explosion' direction for iran. scary that this could become one of those self-fulfilling prophesies. like norooz in iran needed another reason for a price hike!

*** this is definitely qaybat. hope he will forgive me. i just mean that his superb anlaysis gets distracted by his activism. 

Sahimi's take (to Nilou)

Nilou, what is your take on Sahimi's take:

//www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbure...

the regimes are both quite brutal

the egyptians have a more authoritarian political system. mubarak has been going for 30 years under 'emergency rule'. iran has no such thing.

what egypt has a lot more of than iran is poverty. mubarak has failed to bring economic benefits to his people at the same time as he has taken away their right to free speech. now his people want nothing but for him to go.

the comparison to iran's riots last year is less apt. that was an election with disgruntled and badly behaved losers. it was not a unified call for the removal of the head of state. this is what is going on in egypt and what happened in iran in 1978.

will iran's youth try it again though?

Muslim Brotherhood is coming

and it will be worst than Islamic Republic of Iran. 

Few more responses

Statira: The problem is that the IR has a monopoly on communications in Iran as well.  People break through, but still, it's a tough road.

Red wine-graami: you are correct in everything you say.  However, the problem in Iran is that the IR will stop the processes that you describe at every level through the mechanisms that I mention in the blog.  That's why shaping a movement like that in Tunisia is extremely difficult in Iran. (sorry for not writing in Persian, but I was short on time).

Fair: I don't blame Ebadi so much.  El-Baradei knew that he was not going to be harmed if her returned to Egypt.  But knowing the IR, one wouldn't put it pass them to hang Ebadi for being a "mohareb" if she ever sets foot in Iran.  So, I don't blame her for not going.

Afhsninzad: you are absolutely right.  But look at it this way: the IR has been successful in preventing the formation of a unified opposition through various tactics.  I wrote a blog that touched upon this issue about a year ago.  here it is:

 //iranian.com/main/blog/onlyiran/why-iri-agents-and-operatives-insist-pure-green-movement

Pahlevan: You're correct in a sense that the "opposition leaders" in Iran have shown very little courage.  They're just too much part of the system to make a difference.  

A few responses

COP: the IR is extremely methodical in its propaganda tactics.  I don't believe that any regime on this planet spends as big a percentage of its GDP on propaganda as does the IR.  And I agree with you, I think that Arabs have learned a good lesson from Iran's mess.  I don't think that Arabs, even Shia Arabs (look at Iraq) would want a theocracy.  It's only us.

Mash Ghasem:  Sorry man, but this is reality.  And the more we know about it the better.

Vildemose: Thanks for the links.  I guess this quote summarizes it all:

 The Iranian regime is one that seized power through a revolution and is thus well experienced in how to avert a revolution. As a friend of mine in Iran quoted his revolutionary guards commander "we will do everything the Shah didn't do and not do any thing that the Shah did during the 1979 revolution. Just one concession will open the floodgates and increase people's confidence in overthrowing the regime, we will not give one concession to the protesters"

Onlyiran jan, you forgot one thing ...

A so-called 'opposition' group named the 'reformists' who'll act as safety valves in times of trouble!

IRANIAN WERE NOT UNITED

Simple factor about our problem is after election our people came out and they could have finished the regime in same day if there were prepared and were organized and if there was a leader which could have directed the nation for their main goal. you cannot up rise on government time table, our people were directed to wrong path and people like Mousavi and others could defuse the crowd, either intestinally or not but all evidences of their statements shows it was intestinally and they were never had a intention of change instead they were fighting for their share of power and not a freedom that people had on their mind, comparing Iran with any other country will be false because no country in world is like Iran or have the behaviour of Iranian, in EGYPT, government is close to shah time with more restriction and Tunisia was much more like shah time.Our problem is not only we don't have the united front line but also all British and Americans and others countries using current regime for their interest and with democratic regime in IRAN will be no threat in region and western and other countries won't be able to sell billions of dollar Arms to neighbouring countries, not only we have problem with regime but also we have problem with other countries which against the freedom in our region and with peaceful region American will have no excuses to be presence in Persian gulf, today’s Iran is playing soviet rule and cold war been active from last 32 year.our nation in order to reach to freedom must unite and put all the pity differences and excuses who is right or who is wrong and if we suppose to have a democratic country all parties will have the share in power and no more excuses, frankly I find those Iranian who are living in free countries have more problem than Iranian who live in motherland and only problem is our people in motherland don't want to die for me or for you or for any other person which doesn’t advocate the democratic and secular system. And most important factor is also our people today completely aware of our problems and foreign countries problem and also today Iranian are more in business aspiration that revolutionary aspiration. Find the leader who is for Iranian makes sense and his goal is true democracy and new hope for living and struggle for better future, one person who speaks for every one and organizer of all other leaders who they want to be somebody in Iran and to serve the nation and the country not the nation serving him!       

Only Iran Right On

Thank you for the very correct and detailed analysis of why our dictatorship is on a completely different scale of oppression as the other dictatorships in the region, and why our people have a much higher price to pay to gain our freedom than the Egyptian people do.

The Egyptian Army just issued a statement that it will stand by and uphold the human rights of Egyptian citizens.  That is because that and the Imperial Iranian Army were and are professional militaries.  By contrast, the IRGC and Hezbollah are stateless terrorist organizations, and the last thing they care about is the aspirations of the IRanian people.  And they have said so themselves.

I wish Shirin Ebadi would be more like Mohammad El Baradei- both are Nobel Laureates, and in Ebadi's case she specifically got her prize for her work in human rights.  For her to continuously say "I am not political, I am just a lawyer" is to miss an historic and rare opportunity to help free our people.  History will remember the relative behavior of these two Nobel Laureates from the middle east.

Bad giri oftadeem.

...

با اجازه دوست عزیز، جناب ` فقط ایران ` بنده چند نکته یاد آور شوم .

مملکت تونس از آخرین انتخابات شهرداریها و استانداریها نا آرام بوده است اما دائم در این مدت هم نشینیها و تظاهرات مردم تونس سرکوب میشده است چرا که همبستگی‌ اصلی‌ زمانی‌ رسید که مردم دیدند که آن جوان که خود سوزی کرده بود (دلیلش این بود که آن بنده خدا بیکار بوده است،صبح‌ها چند کیلو سبزی تازه و میوه میخریده و به صورت دست فروشی آن را میفروخته است،پلیس میاید و برای اینکه ایشان به کارش ادامه دهد،پول از او میخواهند چرا که عملش غیر قانونی بوده است و این جوان بعد از چند روز این قضیه را تحمل نمیکند و خودش را به آتش میکشاند و مابقی قضایا!) توجه چندانی به او از طرف دولت و مسئولان آن شهر نمی‌شود،مردم به خاطر حمایت از ایشان بلند شده و کم کم انقلاب شکل می‌گیرد !

نکته بعدی این است که تونسی‌ها بلافاصله دست به اعتصاب میزنند و از رفتن به کار خود داری کرده و سپس دانشگاه را هم تحریک کرده و همه و همه متحد میشوند و انقلاب شکل تازه یی به خود می‌گیرد.

بن علی‌ زود دست به اسلحه برد و در واقعیت باید توجه کرد که حتی اعضای کابینه ایشان هم موافقتی بر ادامه این دولت دیکتاتور نداشتند و به همین علت خیلی‌ زود سیاست بن علی‌ شکست خورده و از داخل سقوط کرد !

در همین رابطه،فرانسه و انگلستان و ایالات متحده دست به سکوت زدند و با این حرکت نشان دادند که قضیه برایشان چندان حائز اهمیت نیست هر چند که بعدا ثابت شد که افکت دومینو آغاز شده است و دیگر برای عملیات ضدّ مردمی دیر شده است.

سازمان جاسوسی فرانسه رو دست خورد و سارکوزی مجبور به اعتراف آن شد که حاضر است با دولت جدید کنار آید و اوباما هم به همچنین ! (معمولا کشورهایی که در قدیم مستعمره فرانسه بودند هنوز از نقش و دخالت فرانسه در کشورشان رنج میبرند و کشورهای قوی گوش به سیاست فرانسه در آنجا بیشتر دارند!)

هر چند که هنوز در دولت موقت تونس افرادی از کابینه قبلی‌ پیدا میشوند اما خدا با مردم خوب تونس است... انتخابات نزدیک است و رای..رای مردم است .

در مورد کشور دوست و عزیز.. مصر قضیه بسیار فرق می‌کند ! قضایا از آنجا شروع شد که در آخرین انتخابات وزارت داخله.. کاندیدا بودن آقای البرادعی را موجه ندانسته و ایشان را در کمال ناباوری رد کرد، ایشان تهدید به دستگیری شد و حتی وقتی‌ که فهمیدند که ایشان میخواسته جلب توافق اخوان المسلمین را بکند، عکس دختر ایشان را با بیکینی منتشر ساخته و ایشان را به ولنگاری متهم کردند،البرادعی مجبور به ترک مصر شد.

در همین راستا اعضای اخوان المسلمین در رده‌های نه چندان سازمان یافته دستگیر شدند و رو دست سازمان جاسوسی مصر را خوردند و در دادگاهی‌ فرمایشی ایشان را به حبس‌های طویل المدت محکوم کردند.

در همین رابطه،به صورت پراکنده مردم اعتراضاتی میکردند اما سازمان مخوف شکنجه گری حسنی مبارک به طریق بسیار کثیف و زیر زمینی‌ این اعتراضات را سرکوب میکردند اما دیگر سطح این اعتراضات بیشتر عمیقتر شد به خاطر بیماری مبارک و ترک مصر به کشور عالمان،در آن زمان مردم از ترس آنکه پسر مبارک بر جای پدر نشیند..دوباره اعتراض کردند و حتی شاهد زد و خوردهایی در اواسط سال قبل تا به تابستان ۲۰۱۰ هم بودیم اما،شایعات به اتمام رسید و مبارک ضعیفتر بازگشت به قدرت و مملکت را در انزوای بیشتر اقتصادی برد.

قیمتهای سوخت (که بسیار مهم است در مصر !)، آرد و برق به شدت بالا رفت، مایحتاج مردم نایاب شد و حتی مبارک حاضر نشد به تلویزیون بیاید و توضیحی در این رابطه دهد و بلافاسه بعد از این جریان..یک سری اختلافات نژادی در بین چند قابایل مصری و خلافی و ثنائ در کنار نیل شکل گرفت و دولت به جای عکس العمل درست دست به کشتار زد و تبعیض نژادی را مجددا باب روز کرد و بیچاره آن صحرانشینان که به خاطر آب آشامیدن،مجبور هستند که تن به بردگی دهند و هزار مورد بد دیگر و و‌ا مصیبتا که اگر به چشم خودتان نبینید..باور نمیکنید!

تمام اینها دست به دست هم داد و این انقلاب عظیم شکل گرفت و امیدواریم که به زودی نتیجه دهد و مملکت ما ایران زمین هم به زودی آزاد شود.

از توجه دوستان عزیز سپاسگزاریم.

Egyptian Revolution

will not follow the same path the Iranian Revolution went thru. Egyptians do not have the Khomeini factor. For the Iranian Revolution, it was Khomeini who messed everything up.

A Note of Warning and

• A Note of Warning and Encouragement for Egyptians
• Truths in Tehran

//www.tnr.com/article/world/82450/egypt-riots-iranian-revolution-1979

Excellent analysis

But even the most brutal regimes like IRI wont survive in the digital age for so long. Poeple are no longer dependent on their regime controled media to get informations.

(....) ""Watching the

(....)

""Watching the pictures from Tunisia and Egypt, it looks the crowd sizes in Iran were much larger. None of the protests in Egypt or Tunisia came any where near the three million crowd who came to the streets in Tehran, six days after the fraudulent elections in June last year. The repression by the regime in Iran was many times more brutal and savage than that in Tunisia or Egypt however. People in Egypt and Tunisia were not attacked in their homes and pulled from their roof tops for simply chanting Allah Akbar at night. The injured protesters in Tunisia and Egypt were not attacked in hospitals and dragged from their hospital beds. Protesters were not arrested and bused into detention centres like Kahrizak and raped in Tunisia and Egypt like they were in Iran.

The Iranian regime is one that seized power through a revolution and is thus well experienced in how to avert a revolution. As a friend of mine in Iran quoted his revolutionary guards commander "we will do everything the Shah didn't do and not do any thing that the Shah did during the 1979 revolution. Just one concession will open the floodgates and increase people's confidence in overthrowing the regime, we will not give one concession to the protesters"

Just one reminder of how brutal the repression in Iran was, watch the video of attack on student dormitories here, which resulted in five students killed:
Foreign journalists were not kicked out in Egypt and Tunisia as they were in Iran quickly after the protests erupted.

When Iranian protesters used social networking tools like Facebook and twitter and citizen journalists uploaded their mobile phone pictures and videos, the Iranian protesters were quickly labeled by rich Western Left-wing intellectuals as "affluent North Tehran kids" who did not represent the country.

Had these pictures been taken in Iran, these girls would have been labeled as middle class elite...more

//azarmehr.blogspot.com/2011/01/tunisia-egypt-iran-differences.html

Only Iran jan thank you so much for your comments,

so now we'll just go home and wait till we die, cheers