Free Iran in 2010

ELSS

I think you are an OK dude? Why so much spat towards you!?

A wise man once said to me: the truth will set you free, but first it'll piss you off! The second phrase of this truism explains the reason for the spat here. People don't like their comfort zones and cherished complacencies upset and challenged, albeit that is what we are also claiming to do vis-a-vis Iran. 

Strange world we live in. Thanks for the heads-up ;-)

Nur

I agree! Despite my deep resentment towards the mullahs, I think that's the right thing to do.

I think you are an OK dude? Why so much spat towards you!?

So after all, you did lay out some road map towards unity and national reconciliation here!?

ELSS

The South African model

As much as I would personally like to lynch the entirety of the mullocracy to the last man, we're not going to get to the kind of system that we want if we adopt the same approach that they did when they came to power. Therefore some kind of Peace and Reconcialition commission model, like the one in South Africa once apartheid collapsed, needs to be seriously looked at. However if there are individuals found to have committed legally definable acts of crimes against humanity, those people do need to be tried. That said, remember, there are outstanding warrants for the arrest of many key individuals in the regime. We wouldn't have to do anything ourselves when many of these men are already wanted elsewhere.

Nur

Roger that!

But don't you think that a few thousands of the mullahs and their collaborators should be put on trial and pay for their crimes whatever the sentence maybe? That's once the current system collapses and the democratic system you just described is established!?

ELS

Nur

I hate to admit this but I myself coined the term mass suicide many years ago as what Iranians did to themselves in 78-79 and I agree that they (most of us) deserve what we got. I think in my conversations with people of my age and older over the years many have come to the same realization and conclusion.

But no system is going to stay in its current state, it has to transition to the next state. The question is what is the next state? Hopefully it won't be a worse scenario that it currently is?
ELSS

The salient points

Are that people were overwhelmingly enrolled (or hoodwinked/duped) into bringing this regime into power. They got what they asked for. Simple as that. The causality here is beyond question because it is axiomatic.

We can argue till the cows come home about the rightness or wrongness of such collective decision. For the record, I believe 1978-79 was a case of national suicide, and ten steps back. For the record, I also do not believe that you can make a valid argument linking the progressive angle of the Constitutional Revolution to the Khomeini (counter-)Revolution. The reason is simple: the reactionary 'ulama were defeated on the constitutionalist front by the revolutionaries then. That is why they turned around stood with Muhammad Ali Shah Qajar and the Russians in the royalist coup of 1909. Shaykh Fazlullah Nuri, one of Khomeini's intellectual mentors (and a figure he also cites as a precursor to his Vilayat-i-Faqih theory), ultimately stood against the constitutionalists and the revolution -- and paid for his life for it.

In fact what Khomeinism and the (counter-)revolution of 1979 represents is the ascendency of the very counter-revolutionary and reactionary anti-constitutionalist forces that were responsible for sabotaging that Revolution and making the rise of Reza Khan and the Pahlavi dynasty possible.

These are one of many salient points people seem to miss. But when all is said and done, the majority of the people of Iran brought the Islamic Republic to power, so they go what they asked for.

Nur

I did say I might be preaching, didn't I? Could you elaborate with the key subtle or salient points? Thank you!

ELSS

You're preaching to the choir! But you are also missing some very key salient points.

PT

The hundreds of thousands of Iranians who marched against the Shah and yelled "Istiqlal, Azadi, Jomhuri Eslami" in 1979 got exactly what they asked for -- and by direct implication deserved! This is a very simple, self-evident and straightforward fact not needing demonstration because it is axiomatic. Besides the backroom factors and geopolitical manipulation by the Anglo-European elite, that regime was brought to power by a majority of the Iranian people in 1979. It was Iranians who marched in the streets. It was Iranians who voted for the three referendums solidifying that regime. It was Iranians who beat their chest for the Devil.

Whether the rest of us deserved it, is another question. Whether the children of the parents of the putative revolutionaries of the 1970s deserved it, is also another question. But the fact is that people got then what they asked for then because they asked for Khomeini to be their leader and the Islamic republic to be their government.

As for Cost-of-Decline's little kike jibe: I am not a Muslim. So stick that in your pipe!

Dear Nur = Light !

Name calling is not going to get us anywhere and I myself am guilty of this habit so I will preach and try to practice!?

I hope you don't mind me budding in here but I actually think you are a smart individual and I follow your cause and effect logic.

These concepts (in mathematical models)are very fascinating and believe it or not they are taught in systems and control theory classes in various EE and Math departments at colleges and universities and in fact you can earn a Ph.D. if you so desire.

I certainly don't have a sociology background but having taken a few feedback control theory classes, I'll try to shed some light (Nur) on the topic of the revolution in Iran in 1979 from the cause and effect prespective. BTW, I was 18 years old and did go on the street when we were told about Khomeini's silhouette on the moon and I am sure you must have heard the rhyme came out while after that indecent that went something like this - Mardom Akse Imam Khomeini Ra Dar Mah Deedeh Boodand Zeera Keh Fazanavardan Dar Anja Reedeh Boodand! Oops, I violated the cardinal rule around here.

Now to the crux of the matter, simply speaking
any social/cultural movements (e.g., revolutionary experiments, economic experiments, political experiments, etc.) are like iterative feedback control systems that need to incrementally and recursively adapt and clean (sub-optimize) themselves out.

The 1979 revolution event in Iran was the initial state of this iterative process not the final (you can also argue that the initial state was around 1908, 1953, etc.)! It's true that it had a large ovesrhoot (i.e., it swayed to one side way too much) but it doesn't mean it can not come back toward the more stable point provided that appropriate and adequate forcing functions applied through the process.

Translation If I may, this time around the Iranian people who are participating in the demonstrations are a lot more aware, vigilant, and cognizant about the forces that are being exerted to sway them into chaos! Hence, they hopefully won't react to the point of overshooting, something that you are concerned with!?

This is going to be a long and painful process that will not end with just the defeat of the Islamic Republic rather it will continue for ever if indeed Iranians are seeking a true democracy. In fact a democracy is a feedback control system, and a complex one. Even religions are feedback control systems as well. The former is for an educated man, and the latter is for a poor and uneducated man. That's the difference!

I hope you don't construe my verraji here as lecturing you but I though I may be able to shed some NUR on this topic.

V/R,
ELSS

Due to the respect for this blog, its topic and spirit

I will refrain from getting into yet another pissing contest with the resident ommattie here.

I will catch you elsewhere Abu........

____________________

IRAN BEFORE ISLAM 

____________________

Iranians don't deserve IRI!

Nuri:

 Allow me to disagree with you. Iranians do not deserve the regime they live in.

You can't prove anything with a few anecdotes. You can find people's "stupidity" examples in every country. Iran has a long history of political struggle. I am not talking about thousands of years but mainly since the constitutional revolution of 1906. Iranians political mind is a lot more sophisticated than most countries in the vicinity. Iranians are much less conservative than the vast majority of muslim and even many christian countries.

We have so many talented people and look who is representing the country!

Iranians deserve a lot better. This regime will fall in 2010. Then we will need a lot of optimism, planning and hard work to rebuild the country.

PT

VPK

People like Cost-of-Decline is the "you people" I was referring to, i.e. close minded individuals with limited horizons, not well read, always looking for a historical scapegoat to blame their problems upon and absolve themselves from taking any responsibility. Thirty years ago in Iran such people blamed the Shah and modernization. Today they blame Islam. Tomorrow it will be something else.

Karma is basically the chain of causality, cause and effect. You don't have to believe in it. It is empirical fact observable in nature. Action, reaction, producing more action and then more reaction, i.e. a cause produces an effect which becomes the cause of something else that produces yet another effect, ad nauseum. That is all karma really is. But the truism "what goes around comes around" is more than just a saying. It is also how karma operates in its boomerang trajectory from point a to point z and back to point a again.

BTW Baron de Montesquieu stated in his Spirit of the Laws that all nations deserve the governments they get. So, to give a concrete example, if folks were dumb enough to claim to see a certain cleric's face in the moon who wished to establish a theocracy and so be manipulated to march by the hundreds of thousands against their government then and topple it, the result would be a brutal theocratic state that has proven far worse than the government that replaced it; and, given this, the people then got exactly what they asked for and so deserved.

Parvis Jan

I very much agree with you and share your hopes. If IRI is replaced with real democracy I think is is very realistic to expect  10-15 %  of Iranians abroad to invest in or return to Iran. You can bet I will be one of them. 

The main thing would be to have a secular democracy. We are not going to get majority Iranians to leave Islam the next few years! That is just wishful thinking. But we may reverse the decline in Iran and bring prosperity to her.

Yes, it will require a new government and at least some amount of unity among us. But it is not impossible. We need to stop being cynical and defeatist. Instead as you suggest we should be united; hard working and devoted to improving Iran.

PS,

Nur jan who are "you people"? I don't believe in Karma specially regarding a whole nation.  We don't deserve the IRI specially not the youth. Iranians  deserve better!

Cost of Decline

for almost 1400 years....You people deserve what the blood cult offers you.

And perhaps you people have deserved precisely what you have gotten. Such is Karma...

Looking forward to reading your post, PT

Hopefully, through these kinds of discussions and dialogues, we will be able to reach consensus on what constitutes unity, develop a formula, and devise an strategy and a road map for all of us to follow in the pursuit of that beautiful house on the hill you depicted in your essay.
Thank you.

Disunited we die!

Hi "everybody loves somebody",

Thank you for your comments.

Let me collect my thoughts and I will post a new blog on the topic of unity.

By the way, I don't believe the leaders (not leader but leaders in plural) have to come from an "intellectual elite" group. It can be regular people, who manage to stand out and influence the course of the revolution and of the new system. Examples such as Lech Waleza (a union worker), Yeltsin (an ex-communist party and truck driver) or Reza Shah (a low ranking soldier) show that the leaders can rise from all walks of life. My point was that we do not need 90% of our population to be politically aware, modern and Internet savvy in order to become prosperous. It is always a 1% of the population that leads. In "advanced" countries they have managed to create a system, in which the 1% is among the best (or at least decent), while in Iran it is unfortunately the 1% worst, ignorant and incompetent.

PT

Dear Mr. Tehrani

Thank you for such a pleasant and right out of the heart article!

In your opinion, what are the key ingredients behind the operative term "UNITY" in your statement, "I believe this is time for unity for all patriotic Iranians and believe in a much better tomorrow for Iran?"

In other words, what conditions, characteristics, and attributes the two groups in your essay, the intellectual elite and the cooperative masses, should satisfy and possess in order for the Iranian nation as a whole to reach that beautiful, modern, democratic, stable, progressive, and prosperous state you envision here?

Thank you.

ptehrani agreed

but I am not saying the contrary.

I share the two points mentioned and that is.

- IRI cannot evolve to anything much better and must be removed

- The next political system must be secular and democratic

The question is that there are many closet Islamists who claim to be Republicans but it is just another disguise.

I would have had no problem if they would accept to debate in the light of the day. But it's not always the case ...

Moi meme je dois toujours m'exprimer avec presque des excuses au webmaster sur le site que tu viens de mentioner des que je veux aborder RP dans mes articles alors que sur le meme site il y'a pleins d'auteurs qui sont ouvertement pour le regime.

Ici sur Iranian.com c'est tres different et on est libre. Mais ailleurs le regime dispose de beaucoup d'influence et des ramifications pour influencer l'opinion publique dans un sense comme dans l'autre.

Merci pour ta fidelite a mes ecrits.

Amicalement,

Darius 

We can discuss differences later

Darius,

Right now what we need is unity. You or those pushing for a republic are not going to decide for the Iranian people. Whoever believes in the fact that

- IRI cannot evolve to anything much better and must be removed

- The next political system must be secular and democratic

should unite. Once the regime is toppled, there should be a temporary government and then enough time (not just a few weeks) for different factions to advertise their views and familiarize the Iranian people with what they have in mind for Iran: Monarchists, Repulicans, Mojahed, even Islamists. The Iranian people can then make an educated decision.

It is way too early and it is benefiting IRI when we fight each-other. There won't be anything wrong, once this regime is gone, to start debating and disagreeing on the nature of the future system. I think I am not far from what Reza Pahlavi is advocating but I am thinking for myself.

J'suis d'accord avec toi sur beaucoup de choses et j'ai lu tes articles (a payvand.com et ailleurs) avec beaucoup d'interet depuis des annees.

PT

Dear ptehrani Jaan

I am not pushing towards division but trying to expose the contradictions of those who support a Republic by trying to highjack other people's Free Choice !

Just to name a few of those who push for division:

Hamid Dabashi,:

//iranian.com/main/news/2010/01/03/irans-younger-smarter-revolution

Or Muhammad Sahimi:

//iranian.com/main/news/2010/01/03/turning-point-where-green-movement-headed

And others of the Islamic THINK TANK hiding under the cloak of the Green Movement ( They NEVER PRedicted and even less Wished it's emergance):

Sorry But I am NOT Apologetic to be a Monarchist and Won't Hide My Opinions on grounds that I am formenting division which has been the luxury of MANY MANY IRI Apologists who have indulged in tearing down or belittling even our Sun and Lion Flag on grounds that it symbolized so called War Mongering NEo Cons.

How More Dishonest and Hypocritical can some be ? ... (No worries I am not refering to you in this assumption )

My humble But Firm Opinion,

DK

We need to focus on what we all agree on

Mr. Cost-of-progress:

If you think that my article has any merits at all, please do not fight others in this blog. I respect what you believe but we need to focus on what we all agree on against the regime of Tehran.

Like you said, you are not going to change 1400 years of IRANIAN history with your blog. The fact is Islam has been there for a very very long time and whether you like it or not it is part of Iranian history. Let's not try to change people's religion as that is almost impossible. In the US there are so many evangelicals that believe Jesus Christ was god's son and god himself. You can't change that! The only good thing that came of the IRI is that people now have a much more balanced view about religion and agree that we need a secular regime. That common point is what you and I should focus on instead of denouncing Islam, which will not help other than dividing opposition. This is my humble opinion. You are entitled to yours.

On a similar matter, I personally find Reza Pahlavi as the most democratic and most charismatic political personality Iran has today. However I think that because of a number of historical reasons, the majority of Iranians don't see him as the next leader. Because of that, I don't want to focus on pushing him (like Darius Kadivar does) because it brings division. Reza Pahlavi himself does not want to see division and wants to focus on unity.

Let's all try to be more positive and more compromising in 2010.

Mr Tehrani

I agree with your thoughts and optimism.

The issue about Islam is actually at the center of all this, but my humble post will not undo 1400 years of tyranny.......so.... 

____________________

IRAN BEFORE ISLAM 

____________________

Nuri...Yes Filthy Paws, you googooli magooli

for almost 1400 years - You should know.

You people deserve what the blood cult offers you. Repression and misery, murdeh parasti, valuing dead arabs more than your young who are alive in the streets protesting your very essence.

Yeah yeah, it is not Islam being practiced everywhere now by the Taliban, suicide bombers, honor killings, Opression of women and countless other facts.

It's the evil twin....ay?

Keep beating your chest about your beloved blood cult - I'll continue to speak out against it.

BTW, Try not to address me in your replies - I do not appreciate your stance on anything.

____________________

IRAN BEFORE ISLAM 

____________________

Excellent article!

for future Iran with Iranians resourses.

thanks for your contribution.

Payandeh Iran & true Iranians 

ptehrani

I am with you 100%.

Let's unite!

Nur-i-azal: I agree with you that nobody should target the religious belief of millions of Iranians and said it in my response to "cost of progress".

Please do not change the main conversation here (my article). I believe all Iranians who believe IRI must change and the future system should be a secular democracy (whether a republic, a monarchy or xyz) should unite and not fight each other. It is a good thing that people don't think alike. This balances at the end the outcome.

Thank you

"to take back our country from the filthy paws of Islam"

And hand Iran over to the filthy paws of whom instead? Multinational corporations?? How about the Baha'is? Or, no, Evangelical Christians??

The filthy paws of Islamism have nothing to do the paws of those Muslims who practice their faith in forms such as Sufism, Isma'ili Shi'ism or the Ahl-i-Haqq. Those are also Islamic forms of Iranian spirituality.

Perhaps we just need to take Iran back from filthy paws - period! Now imagine that.

It is possible!

Thank you for your comment.

I can certainly understand your skepticism that you might call realism. But I believe it is possible. You can reverse the brain drain. Not entirely of course but just imagine 15% of Iranians abroad returning home or not even returning but simply investing in Iran. Obviously the political system in Tehran must facilitate the environment and it will not be easy.

Lebanon, completely destroyed in the 80s and 90s has been rebuilt fast thanks to the Lebanese diaspora. Of course Lebanon is a small country and does not have Iran's unique situation but it also has its own challenges.

If we don't believe in the possibility of a brighter future, it will never happen. Let's hope for it!

Also the problem is not Islam. Let's respect those who believe in it. But the future political system of Iran must be secular!