Shifteh Ansari

"Victory" is in quotes

Yes Hovakh, and TheMrs, indeed this is not a victory for the regime. Of course, fascists and their mercenaries like waffen SS major will declare "victory" no matter what. But such "victories" are a joke- like the "victory" over Saddam Hussein in 1988, or the "victory" of Hezbollah over Israel in 2006. Indeed, as waffen ss major says, how can the GM compete? Of course if the GM had the guns and money of the Islamic Fuehrer things would be quite different.  The basijis and IRGC terrorists are brave only when they are armed and numerous and their opposition are weak unarmed peaceful civilians.  Make it a fair fight and you will see how brave they are.

If anything, it is a clear demonstration of failure of this "revolution" that after 31 years of overthrowing the Shah of Iran for the crime of being a dictator who would suppress his opposition, its commemoration can be held only under a total clampdown of the capital and under martial law with the cutoff of all communications with the outside world as well as major shutdown of the press.

So at a minimum, 22 Bahman 1388 was a clear demonstration that the Islamic revolution has failed, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is a failed state, only in power by shear force. And of course, like the leaderships of all failed states, the Islamic Fuehrer will take false pride and security in the apparent control of the population. And it is that same false pride that will bring him down.

His stormtroopers and terrorists control the streets with Chinese anti population armored vehicles. But they have lost the people of Iran, beyond the point of no return.

Mammad is absolutely right, this is a marathon, and the Iranian people will prevail. All terrorists, especially the anti Iranian IRGC, ignore this reality at their own peril.

I think that we should start a publicity campaign against the People's Republic of China, and their support of the suppression and rape of the Iranian people. Iran has become Tibet.

-Fair

 Leverette and Reza

 Leverette and Reza Aslan on PBS Newshour:

MARGARET WARNER: And for more on today's developments, political and nuclear, we go to Reza Aslan, an Iranian-born author and journalist now living in the U.S. He's a professor of creative writing at the University of California, Riverside. Flynt Leverett, who has held posts at the State Department, National Security Council staff, and CIA, he's now with the New America Foundation, a Washington think tank, and he teaches international affairs at Penn State University. And David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear weapons inspector, he's

Welcome, gentlemen, to all of you.

How do you read what you have heard and seen in terms of the video what happened today on the streets in Iran?

FLYNT LEVERETT, senior fellow, New America Foundation: I think it's further evidence for what I believe has been evidence since last June, namely, that this movement, the Green Movement, the opposition, however you describe it, that this movement doesn't pose a threat to the fundamental stability of the Islamic republic.

There is no revolution afoot in Iran, and the social base of this movement is not growing; it is, in fact, shrinking. I don't believe this movement ever had majoritarian support in Iran, but whatever its height of support was in the immediate aftermath of last June's presidential election, that support base has contracted very significantly.

MARGARET WARNER: Reza Aslan, do you read it that way, that today

 //www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june10/iran2_02-11.html

Oh my God, did you watch the

Oh my God, did you watch the stupid Leverette on PBS?? He is such a shill...I'm so disgusted....

SARettooGOhiastkehRahbarriD (SARGORD)

Have you some premature ejaculation problems? 

I bet that when you saw those IRSG mozdoors well dressed to go to war, beating defenseless people very exciting. I also admit that it was cheering to see that IRI used all these forces to silence people who were peacefully manifesting, on its 31st anniversary.

Have you seen CNN and read how other medias analyzed this event? It seems that with all the money IRI spent to sell false infomation to the west, it didn't work. It was so funny to see in parrallel, A.N. saying "... the unity of the great iranian people behind our leader ... and our nuclear program"; and people tearing Khamenei's great poster and chanting death to the dictator on CNN. yes it was so cool.

That reminded me the saying "Nashashidi, shab derazeh". Have you heard about that SARGORD?

پروردگارا،

پروردگارا، میهن ما، ایران و ما ایرانیان را از این بی‌ وجدانان اسلامی و شیطان پرست رهایی بخش. آمین.

I do not look at it that way

Amir:

I do not look at it the way you said it. There are two facts that a lot of people are not considering:

1. Just as the GM gains experience, so also do the hardliners in ways to confront it. The hardliners learned the lesson that by saturating the streets they can prevent large clusters of GM supporters.

2. It was clear to me that today's demonstrations would not turn out the way some people had advertised, especially on this site. Some people were talking as if the regime would be toppled today, and all the people had to do was just showing up. Now, if a person like me had said, "look guys, it is not as easy as you make it sound," he/she would have been accused of all sorts of things!

It was clear to me that it would have been totally embarrassing for the hardliners to allow large scale demonstrations by the GM on the anniversary of the revolution. Thus, clearly, that they would go all out to prevent it.

I'll post an article about this tomorrow on Tehran Bureau.  Remember, this is a marathon not a sprint.

Mammad

What is the definition of victory?

I agree with TheMrs. To see the regime bring all his armies on the street and declare war on people, is a victory for the opposition. They have dispersed any unofficial gathering and prevented people joining each other, denying the snowball of people the size and momentum. This suppression of people's voice will be a victory for the regime only if we believe that they have been victor. To borrow from the regime's own mythology, who was the victor in Ashura? Hussain or Yazid? It all depends on our definition of victory.

Just another war

I agree with Mamad for different reasons and despite our difference that I envision the long term (way beyond IRI) elimination of Islamic influence from the culture and the society.

So far as the day's events, it would have been totally unreasonable to risk all when the enemy is expecting and is out there in force. This is a fight that is turning into a war, as the clashes in late December have shown; you deliver your blow when the enemy is least expecting it. Late December clashes had the element of surprise and from now on the opposition will decide when and where to pick a fight, unless the Islamists can field hundreds of thousands of their armed goons in the streets, like today, permanently. Even then, the committed segment of the opposition will have the perfect opportunity to probe and take notes of the enemy's strength and weakness for decisive battles.

Mammad

For today, Moussavi and Khatami had called for people to come out to protest (but in a manner that was very, very respectful towards the glorious Islamic system). I find it interesting that the Ashura protests in late December were larger, fiercer, and more defiant of the glorious Islamic system, and yet weren't as explicitly endorsed by the out-of-power faction of the IRI (i.e. Moussavi, Khatami et al). Perhaps, the Moussavi-Khatami endorsement of protests is a "kiss of death" of sorts and not likely to generate much enthusiasm on the part of the demonstrators at this point, when we are so far removed in time from the IRI's staged "elections".

Mammad

Thanks for the comment.

I am with you on the marathon concept.

Perhaps this tweet from Iran describes IRI's "victory" best:

پیروزی یعنی‌ خیابانها مملو از نیروی انتظامی با تمام قوا در روز جشن ۳۱ سالگی انقلاب

Yes, the battle is far from over and much of it lies up ahead.  The Green Movement has only just begun to learn its strengths and weaknesses and the terrain it needs to negotiate in order to save its energy and move efficiently.  I am very optimistic, indeed.

Iranians were victorious today

JG, we lost a battle? What are you talking about!?!?!

Thousands of arrests of ordinary citizens, hundreds of journalists and academics in jail, disruption of all communication systems, threats, no foreign reporters, EXECUTIONS and threats of executions, daily psychological war, months of hard stress and pressure...

Add to that the fact that the government bussed in it’s own people and provided them security all the while it clubbed and beat the opposition and kept them from gathering…

Add to that the fact that the leaders are under virtual house arrest and beaten when they go out to protest...

And yet, people STILL managed to show their discontent with nightly chants and their presence on the street.

COME ON have a bit of ensaaf!!! Iranians accomplished a lot today. They showed that it takes A LOT for the government to STAGE a ralley. They showed the government is not confident, otherwise why go through all this trouble?

They showed they were still willing to walk out to the streets.There is no value in the staged rallies that take so much effort to orchestrate.

Do you know how much work and blood and sweat these ordinary Iranians have sacrificed over these long months to put the government in this position?

Let’s have some ENSAAAAAF Please. I think today was a great success. Iranians make it very tough for the IRI to put on such shows. Success isn't always about who is on the streets. There's a lot more to this.

And remember, there is still 4 shanbe soori, 13 be dar, norooz, the anniversary of the elections, elections in other levels of the government, neda’s memorial etc.

If anyone has all their hopes invested in one day, they need to calm down and sit back. This is going to be a long ride.

Defeat only for the unrealistic ones

Today's events do not represent a defeat for the Green Movement. If on the anniversary of the revolution, that brought to power a political system that is supposedly supported by the majority of the people, the government must blanket Tehran with tens of thousands of security forces, intelligence agents, Basij militia, and plainclothe officers just to prevent expression of opposition, what kind of "victory" it is for the government? It is, in fact, a great victory for the GM.

This was a defeat only for those who exaggerate things, who claime that the hardliners' demise is imminent, etc. I have always said, and repeat again:

1. The struggle for democracy, including the struggle of the GM, is not a project that starts on a certain date and ends on a certain date, but rather a process; it is not a sprint, but rather a Marathon.

2. The hardliners and their supporters do not have any place to go, unlike the Shah's supporters who moved to Europe and US. Therefore, these guys will not give up power easily. The plitical structure will change ONLY when even they become convinced that the present power structure is no longer tenable, and it is not even in their interest and survival for the system to continue. If the premise is correct, then the struggle will necessarily be long and tough.

But, we will get there.

Mammad

Sargord and other thoughts

Posses the main characteristic to be a Mozdoor and that is lack of conscience. Oh and one more thing among many other, he enjoys the sight and sounds of repression-just follow his posts and watch his tone.

On the whole issue of viability of movement from this point on, it is as viable and strong(if you are willing to scratch the surface) as it was the day before. Shifteh has articulated this point very well. I think we will see further radicalization on the secular portion of this movement, while some of the "guardians" of islamic republic might capitulate in the next few weeks.

People are fast learners, the lessons from yesterday will help them push forward the demands and the actions against the IRR, in a more organized( not the old fasion vertical leadership) in their neighborhoods and wherever they find opportunities to do so. Eventually small armed groups will emerge; people will defend themselves.

The clarity and pointedness of the demands, demonstrate an elevated sense of political and revolutionary understanding on the part of millions; this does not evaporate with a minor setback

We are countless!

shepesh

you forgot to mention tahgord's other whammy: the supporters who showed up.  they were bussed (and coerced) to participate and were given presents and food for their "patriotic" duty.  this iri chearleader who can't read, write or speak farsi has a double whammy of having a tendancy to make nonsensical comments and a miserable life that the only way he can get attention is by pretending to be an iri military officer.  barat moteasefam tahgord. ;)

Don't worry, dear Iranian friends!

Today we lost a battle but we will win the war (maybe it would help to convince a few generals (army and pâsdârân) to change sides). But whatever happens a new, civilized, subtle, beautiful Iran is near. And the likes of Ahmadinejad, Ahmad Khatami or Khamenei are enjoying their last days in power.

Khâhand oftâd!

A (non-Iranian) freedom-loving humanist

درگيري در اتوبان صدر

خبرنگار آژانس ايران خبر, تهران , 22 بهمن :در اتوبان صدر درگيري بين مردم و مزدوران حكومتي صورت گرفت . در اين درگيري بسيجي ها به يك خودرو حمله كردند كه سرنشين هاي آن يك آقا و يك خانم بودند و شيشه هاي آن ماشين را خرد كردند.
//newsagency-ina.com/News-Details.aspx?newsId...

گزارش مستقیم از تظاهرات ایرانیان در مقابل سفارت ایران در اروپا

 در حال حاضر تقربیاٌ ٥٠٠٠ ایرانی در مقابل سفارت ایران در لندن تجمع کرده اند

//www.epersianradio.com/

Opposition numbers

Free protests were/are forbidden by Khamenei, and threats and arrests were made before protests. There are Show Trials and more executions planned to intimidate the Opposition. If free protests WERE permitted, as the constitution of Islamic Republic permits, people would have been out in droves. So your logic is flawed, true number of Greens was not determined by the protests as they fear for their lives.

And what about lack of Gmail and networking facilities, censorship? Are you taking any of these into consideration?

What we see is due to result of repression. Not free will of Iranians.

پلیسی ترین 22 بهمن تاریخ

پلیسی ترین 22 بهمن تاریخ (22 خرداد رایمان را دزدیدند و 22 بهمن حضورمان را)
رژیم کودتا پلیسی ترین 22 بهمن تاریخ جمهوری اسلامی را برگزار کرد. برای رژیم اهمیت زیادی داشت که اولا نشان دهد جمعیت فراوانی به خیابان ها خواهند آمد و در ثانی با پلیسی ترین شیوه این جمعیت را همراه خود اعلام کند. تاکتتکی را که کودتاچیان برای حضور میلیونی مردم در انتخابات 22 بهمن به کار برده بودند این بار با هشت ماه تجربه، بار دیگر تکرار کردند.
Read the rest here: //aimscan.wordpress.com/2010/02/11/%D9%BE%D9%...

This is a double whammy for

This is a double whammy for the protest movement.

True, there appears to have been a maximalist security presence, but the strength of numbers of establishment supporters was probably the back breaker to this whole affair. The protesters were effectively drowned.

This brings up one of the critical shortcomings of the protest movement. It lacks effective leadership. Without leadership and management, essential levers of organization are lacking. How can it hope to compete?

Obviously the establishment has now come up with the answer to hijacking national events. And this was the only means of relevance the anti-establishment was really ever able to come up with. Now what? 

I also think the Asura riots and the radicaliztion of certain "Greens" has many more reform minded elements of the movement reassessing their continued involvement, at least as far as street level participation goes.

gitdoun, Don't Worry...

Along millions of Iranians in Iran and around the world, I share your frustration and disappointment as well my friend .

This satanic regime can kill innocent Iranians and keep occupying Iran for NOW only! But they can't do it forever, they themselves know it very well.

That's why they are on the full scale offensive! A regime that has the majority of its people vote and support doesn't act this way... LIKE A CRIMINAL!

They can oppress Iranians for while longer but this regime can not continue messing around with the world !They have been pushing others externally as well, so others outside are not as nice and defenseless as our nation inside!

The world soon will strike against them, because they are illigitimate and criminals, even against their own people!!! And when they do, unfortunately many innocents maybe sacrificed for Freedom of Iran...  

Meanwhile, True Iranians inside Iran will continue their protests and fight for their God given rights... And They will eventually prevail against Islamic Evil Rapists.

IT"S NOT OVER YET!!!

TO BE CONTINUED...

بی بی سی: حضور رهبران مخالفان دولت در راهپیمایی ۲۲ بهمن

همزمان با راهپیمایی ۲۲ بهمن، محمد خاتمی و مهدی کروبی در میان راهپیمایان و معترضان حضور یافتند اما تلاش میرحسین موسوی و زهرا رهنورد برای پیوستن به آنها نافرجام ماند.
پارلمان نیوز، پایگاه اطلاع رسانی فراکسیون خط امام مجلس ایران، از حضور محمد خاتمی، رئیس جمهور سابق ایران، در تقاطع خیابان های زنجان و آزادی خبر داده است.
به گزارش پارلمان نیوز، حضور آقای خاتمی با استقبال راهپیمایان مواجه شده است، اما پس از برخورد نیروهای امنیتی و لباس شخصی، او برای پیشگیری از بروز خشونت و آسیب رسیدن به طرفداران خود، از محل راهپیمایی خارج شده است.
در گزارشی دیگر محمدتقی کروبی، پسر مهدی کروبی به بی بی سی فارسی گفت که حضور پدر او مهدی کروبی در حوالی میدان صادقیه تهران با حمله مهاجمان مواجه شده است.
پسر مهدی کروبی گفت که مهاجمان به قمه و سلاح گرم مسلح بودند و گاز اشک آور را مستقیما به سوی صورت آقای کروبی پاشیده اند که بر اثر آن مهدی گروبی دچار مشکل تنفسی و سوختگی پوست صورت شده است و سنگی هم به سر او اصابت کرده است.
باقیش را اینجا بخوانید: //www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2010/02/100211_l...

كشته نداديم كه سازش كنيم رهبر قاتل رو ستايش كنيم

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkAXp3WqCic

Unannounced martial law in Tehran

حکومت نظامی اعلام نشده در تهران توسط سپاه پاسدارن که ملبس به لباس شخصی هستند
بنابه گزارشات رسیده به فعالین حقوق بشر و دمکراسی در ایران،نیروهای سرکوبگر ولی فقیه یک حکومت نظامی اعلام نشده در نقاط مختلف بخصوص نقاط مرکزی شهر تهران بر قرار کرده است. نیروهای سرکوبگر ولی فقیه بطور بی سابقه و گسترده در نقاط مرکزی شهر مستقر شده اند و شهر را به یک پادگان نظامی تبدیل کرده اند . نیروهای بیشماری را در پارک لاله مستقر کرده اند.نیروهای ویژه سپاه پاسداران که با لباس شخصی در سطح شهر به صورت گستره حضور دارند و اقدام به سرکوب مردم می کنند. گله های موتور سوار نیروهای سرکوبگر بسیج که سنین آنها پایین است در بلوار گشاورز بصورت دسته های بیش از 100 موتورسوار مانور وحشت ایجاد می کنند.
نیروهای سرکوبگر اعضای ویژه سپاه پاسداران که لباس شخصی بر تن دارند و در سطح بسیار گسترده در نقاط مرکزی شهر حضور دارند دست به دستگیریها کور می زنند و حتی به تعدادی که در صفوف راهپیمائی به مناسبت کیک و نوشابه قرار داشتند را دستگیر و به نقاط نامعلوی منتقل می کنند. آمار دستگیریهای امروز بسیار بالا است.
نیروهای سرکوبگر لباس شخصی که از اعضای ویژه سپاه پاسداران هستند دستگیر شدگان را با وان های سفید رنگ شخصی به نقاط نامعلومی منتقل می کنند. ولی علیرغم حضور گسترده نیروهای سرکوبگر اعتراضات با شهامت بی نظیر مردم شکل می گیرد و در نقاط مختلف تهران ادامه دارد.
به نظر میاید که ولی فقیه علی خامنه ای با تمام توانش نیروهای سرکوبگر خود را برای سرکوب مردم و ایجاد اختناق وارده کرده است و هر حرکتی را می خواهد در نطفه خفه کند ولی تا به حال مردم مرعوب شرایط شدید امنیتی و نظامی نشده اند و دست به حرکتهای اعتراضی مختلفی در نقاط مختلف تهران زده اند.
فعالین حقوق بشر و دمکراسی در ایران
22 بهمن 1388 برابر با 11 فوریه 2010
//www.enghelaab.com/index.php?option=com_cont...

gitdoun

read my comment below under "big picture".  

.

.

دستگیری به خاطر دستبند سبز

جنبش راه سبز (جرس ) :به همراه داشتن هرگونه نشانه سبز از جمله دستبند و یا پارچه سبز علت بسیاری از دستگیری های امروز بود.
یک شاهد عینی در گفتگو با بی بی سی، اظهار داشت: موج عظیمی از دستگیری ها در خیلبان ولیعصر ،هفت تیر و صادقیه صورت گرفته است که بسیاری از آنها حتی در تظاهرات شرکت نکرده بودند و در اتومبیل خود بودند که مورد حمله قرار گرفتند. شنیده ها حکایت از این دارد که بسیاری از دستگیر شدگان امروز پس از دادن تعهد و آدرس و شماره تلفن آزاد شده اند.
گفتنی است که ماموران نظامی از بازداشت شدگان امروز آدرس ایمیل و پسوردآها را نیز خواسته بودند.
//www.rahesabz.net/story/10082/

gitdoun

I am optimistic, because this has never seemed like a one-movement checkmate to me.  It is going to take time, one step at a time.  The Iranian protesters have achieved a lot in the past eight months, at the cost of dear life and freedom.  Yet, they have not given up and they will not.  It would be simplistic to expect an overnight victory.  Eight months is nothing in the overall scheme of things, but look at the blows they have put on IRI's roots, showing it for the flimsy, empty establishment that it is.  You should not lose heart.  We should do our best to get the voices of Iranians inside Iran out and make sure the world stands witness. 

FYI/Reza Pahlavi on MSNBC , 11Feb, 2010 (Youtube)

Reza Pahlavi on MSNBC , 11Feb, 2010:

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVHCijroXVY

بی بی سی: تجمع ها و درگیری های تازه در عصر روز ۲۲ بهمن در ایران

با وجود پایان یافتن مراسم رسمی سالگرد انقلاب در ایران، گزارش هایی از ادامه تجمع های اعتراضی و درگیری های پراکنده در تهران و چند شهر دیگر منتشر شده است.
یک شاهد عینی از اصفهان به بی بی سی فارسی گفت که گروهی از هوادران جنبش اعتراضی ایران عصر امروز (پنجشنبه ۲۲ بهمن - ۱۱ فوریه) در خیابان چهارباغ بالا تجمع کرده اند.
به گفته او پلیس به سمت این گروه از معترضان حمله کرده است.
ویدیویی هم در سایت یوتیوب منتشر شده است که صحنه هایی از اعتراضات امروز اصفهان را نشان می دهد.
//www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2010/02/100211_l...