Consider all the consequences

Consequences of a forced regime change in Iran


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Consider all the consequences
by bakhtiar
24-Sep-2007
 

Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace.
--
Charles Sumner

In each war there are always winners and losers. The winners are those who make money and gather more power to themselves while all the others are the losers. It doesn’t matter if one has been on this side or that side; chances are that in the end the majority end up losing far more than they thought they will gain. Ask any parent that has lost a child in a war if he or she can in any way be compensated for that loss and you’ll have the answer.

One can expect the push for war from those who will gain from it, but not from those who lose. But the sad fact is that those who gain from war use all the communication means at their disposal to persuade the losers to support and even participate in the war. The American people were thus persuaded to participate in the war against Iraq. Those who were against it were labelled as unpatriotic fools who were working against their country’s interests.

But it wasn’t only the foreigners that wanted a war in Iraq. Some Iraqi exiles played an important role in this as well. They gave the Neocons the excuse to claim that they were not invading Iraq only to secure America, but also to “FREE” the Iraqi people. People such as Chalabi and Iyad Allawi, supported and funded by CIA and others, gave credence to the allegations against Iraq. Did these people do it on purpose or were they fooled? Did they sit and consider the consequences for the rest of the Iraqis, or were they thinking only of what was in it for them?

As the Neocons and their allies continue to push for a devastating war against Iran, they are joined by some Iranian exiles who profess that they cannot wait a minute longer for the war to start. They are claiming, as their Iraqi counterparts did, that they are supporting the Neocons because they want to free the long suppressed Iranian People. Here I am not going to question their motives, but their wisdom. Have these people considered the consequences of such an action? Do they know what it means to create chaos in Iran and what the consequences will be for Iranians and Iran? In case they don’t know, I would like to provide them with some information.

We all have heard of the Neocons’ plan for a new Middle East but had never seen a map of it until it was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006, which as can be expected was greeted by protests from Turkey and other countries. The map resurfaced again in September 15, 2006 when it was presented at the NATO’s Defence College in Rome.

This map showed how future Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Afghanistan would look like. With regards to Iran, one can see that in the south west, the oilfields are taken out and merged with oil rich regions of Iraq to make a country called “Arab Shia State”. In the north, parts of Iran is merged with the Iraqi and Turkish Kurdish area to create the “Free Kurdistan”. The Iranian Azerbaijan is merged with Azerbaijan. In the west the Sistan and Baluchistan is merged with the Pakistani Baluchistan to create the “Free Baluchistan”. On the other hand Kuwait is kept in place, while Saudi Arabia is divided into its oil and non oil regions. This was not a political map, but an “oil” map. Those places that had oil or gas were put into mini-states, vulnerable and needing protection; the protection that US and its allies could then provide.

Now, if you look at the events as they are unfolding, at least as far as Iran is concerned, you’ll see how this fictional map is slowly being turned into reality. To start with Israel has admitted that it is shipping weapons and helping Iranian Kurdish rebels to fight the central government. On August 27, Avigdor Lieberman said Israel is extending aid to those opposition organizations which are proving effective. He was the first member of the Israeli government to expose the clandestine war against Iran.

The Kurdish group is not the only one enjoying Israeli or Western help. We have the Azeri group in the north and Ahwazi group in the south. We also have the Baluchi group in the south east enjoying funding and support from the UK, US, Israel, etc.

As you are reading this article, the roots of major internal conflicts are being sown. No one can guess how many people are going to die because of this, but one thing is certain; none of those that are going to suffer are in LA or New York or London. They are all in Iran.

Even if we dismiss these as only conspiracy theories, we cannot dismiss the fact that an invasion or occupation of a country as populous and as vast as Iran is going to be extremely difficult and bloody.

One must not forget that if only 10% of over one million Basiij and the revolutionary guards decide to mount a guerrilla war against an occupying army or a puppet regime, it will take many many years to bring stability to the country. We will see many Abou Gharibs and many more atrocities committed in the name of Democracy and Freedom.

Who would like to see foreign boots kicking down doors in the middle of the night? Who would like to see women and children crying in terror as their houses are searched and their men-folk blindfolded, manhandled and taken to prisons? Who would like to see picture of rapes of his or her fellow citizens by foreign troops? Please stand-up and be counted. Don’t hide behind slogans.

Before shouting slogans and jumping on the Neocon’s bandwagon, one should consider all the consequences. Some claim that those who are against war with Iran are in the pay of the Iranian government or are its apologists. They are mistaken. No one but a fool will support a “preventive” or an expansionist war. After seeing Iraq and Afghanistan, only a fool will support more of the same. But again some may see this as an opportunity to make a quick buck. To these I have to say that no amount of money in the world is going to wash the blood of the innocent people from your hands.

Please remember that as the German proverb says: A great war leaves the country with three armies - an army of cripples, an army of mourners, and an army of thieves.

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a management consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He can be contacted by e-mail at:Bakhtiarspace-articles@yahoo.no

Copyright Abbas Bakhtiar, all rights reserved.


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American Hypocrisy

by concern American (not verified) on

Our government does exactly the opposite of what they preach. We want the Iranians to stop nuclear enrichment. As a member of IAEA we routinely violate the NPT by producing nuclear weapons. US accuses Iran of sponsoring Terrorist groups, but we help MKO which is listed as a terrorist organization under the state department, against the Iranian government and send weapons to Kurds to fight against the Iranian government. We accuse Iran of meddling in Iraq and Afghanistan. Last I looked there are no Iranian soldiers on either countries while there are over 190000 American soldiers occupy both countries. We accuse Iran of jailing political prisoners however; we fail to indicate the GITMO and Abu Gharib. It is my feeling that we should practice what we preach otherwise we only look like hypocrites. These expansionist ideas will eventually bankrupt our treasury and kill and injure a lot of our young people.


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How to stop the Neocons!!!

by Jerry Quill (not verified) on

If the ruling regime In Iran holds free and fair elections, gives up it's nuclear program and adheres to a high standard of human rights it could stop those evil American neocons dead in their tracks.

Look at Canada, it has those evil Americans right on its border but through democracy and human rights its kept the scirvy dogs at bay for 2oo years.

So why don't you go to Iran and personally give them that message and let me know what they say.


jamshid

To anti-everybody

by jamshid on

Whatever revolution take place in Iran, be it pro-federal, pro-monarchis, pro-republican, pro-whatever, there is no room for the likes of you. Your likes played their hand once in 1978. baraye haft jademoon basteh.

 

Your bankrupt likes have no place in the future of Iran. You have a place only in Iran's political dumpster though. Make your reservation in a hurry.


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No foreign occupation but foreign help is ok

by Iranian Kurd (not verified) on

It's nothing wrong for the oppositions specially the kurds to get aid from either Israel or West. They are the ones who are constantley in combat with that ruthless government who has no repect for its minorities. I don't believe in the fictional map that Mr. Bakhtiar points at. The only thing that can save Iran is neither Rajavie or Pahlavies faction. It's democratic federal Iran wich neither two agrees upon.


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Three Rednecks

by M.M (not verified) on

Dr. Bakhtiar, you are welcome in NY with a bunch of flowers to ... your classmate, Dr. Ahmadinnejad.

Do not forget to take Mr.Javid with you. He is another ex-brother on the Islam-front.

You 3 guys are a three-redneck-products of the IRI and just petty nuts.


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Mr. Bakhtiar: You falsely

by Nay (not verified) on

Mr. Bakhtiar: You falsely assume that this current regime was not forced upon us. You need to inform yourself about the orchestrated coup of 1978; sponsered by Carter et al and neocons (Read "A centure of War" by William Engdhall).

Neocons don't believe in separation of Chruch and state for the Middle Eastern countries because they want the Middle East to remain ignorant and backward. And that is exactly what we got. You need to dig deeper and stop parroting mindless propaganda formulated by the left to control the political discourse domestically.

Neocon's ideals dovetail exactly with the Islamic Republic's installation in 1978; and in fact, that is what we see happening in the Middle East, one theocracy after another; first they installed the mullahs in Iran then they installed the mullahs in Iraq:

Strauss (father of neoconservative ideology) was neither a liberal nor a democrat," she said in a telephone interview from her office at the University of Calgary in Canada. "Perpetual deception of the citizens by those in power is critical (in Strauss's view) because they need to be led, and they need strong rulers to tell them what's good for them."

"The Weimar Republic (in Germany) was his model of liberal democracy for which he had huge contempt," added Drury. Liberalism in Weimar, in Strauss's view, led ultimately to the Nazi Holocaust against the Jews. Like Plato, Strauss taught that within societies, "some are fit to lead, and others to be led," according to Drury. But, unlike Plato, who believed that leaders had to be people with such high moral standards that they could resist the temptations of power, Strauss thought that "those who are fit to rule are those who realize there is no morality and that there is only one natural right, the right of the superior to rule over the inferior." For Strauss, "religion is the glue that holds society together," said Drury, who added that Irving Kristol, among other neoconservatives, has argued that separating church and state was the biggest mistake made by the founders of the U.S. republic.

"Secular society in their view is the worst possible thing," because it leads to individualism, liberalism, and relativism, precisely those traits that might encourage dissent, which in turn could dangerously weaken society's ability to cope with external threats. "You want a crowd that you can manipulate like putty," according to Drury...

//www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/817

"A century of War" by William Engdhal:

//www.amazon.com/Century-War-Anglo-American-P...


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Thanks!

by Midwesty (not verified) on

Thanks!


mrclass

your point is well taken

by mrclass on

but who is taking us to war, Iranian exiles? no it's the leadership of this sewer republic that does this. Every one in the world now noticed how whcked off Ahmadinejad is. well the rest of the islamo facists are not better either.  I have yet to hear from any exile Iranian that they like Iran to be bombed. if any thing some promimemnt exile Iranians have said in an event of war they will stand behind this regime.

There is no need for war. in 1979 Angelo/american alliance brought down the shah and imposed these guys on us. well they can do the same now..


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To Jamshid

by Anti-Rajavi, Anti-Pahlavi, Anti-neocon (not verified) on

If you want a revolution in Iran to bring back Reza Junior, Ashraf Pahlavi (who was just the victim of vicious rumors, poor thing), Ardeshir Zahedi, SAVAK, etc--then go to Iran and start working on your revolution. All the people who cry "Javid Shah!" will follow your lead and Iran's Golden Age will be restored...The quickest way for you to enter Iran would be to hide inside a US Abrams tank or tie yourself to the back of a cruise missile and be launched into Iran. Good luck with your revolution--it's just around the corner :-)


jamshid

Re: anti-rajavi anti pahalvi

by jamshid on

One more note: You accuse kamangir of being the head of Ashraf's drug cartel. Ashraf? Drug cartel? Do you think we are still in 1978? Do you take us today for the fools that we were back then? You think we haven't learnt anything about your likes?

 

One thing that ticks me off the most is to hear the same baseless crap that your likes used to repeat in 1978, in order to deceive idiots like me, and to draw us into the streets to demonstrate against the shah, utlimately destroying Iran, all so that your likes could "vent off" your oghdehs.

 

If only.... If only back then I knew what "oghdeis, hassod, por roo, por edeaa and assabi" your likes were, if only me and many million Iranians knew what lies, falsehood and malicious rumors your were spreading, we would have put you and your likes in their place, the dumpster of history, long ago.


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To those who critize my stand against war/bombing

by Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar (not verified) on

I understand your frustrations, especially when you live in US and are under constant barrage of anti-Iran/anti-Iranian propaganda. I am not supporting Ahmadinejad or others. I am simply declaring my opposition to invasion/bombing of Iran. I am declaring my opposition to division of Iran. I am declaring my opposition to civil-war in Iran. If you are for war, bloodshed and civil-strife then say it clearly. Foreign powers have their own agendas and don’t care about Iranian people. Look at Iranian history and tell me when they actually wanted democracy in Iran? Who stopped the nation’s first parliament in 1906? Who destroyed the constitutional revolution of 1953 and Dr. Mohammad Mossadegh? There is a map of future Iran that unfortunately was not published with this article. Here is the link to it: //www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load...
Please have a look at the map and then tell me if you want this new Middle East. Anyway, I do thank you for your comments and wish you all the best.


jamshid

Re: anti-rajavi anti-everybody

by jamshid on

You say that the Iranian people will never rise to put the mojahdein or pahlavis back to power. So who are they going to put in power? Low lifes but "por roo" and "por modeaa" like you? Bankrupts like the Mosadeghi gang? Or perhaps stay with the Mullahs? The answer is no, no and no.

 

Iranians have already figured out your oghdei likes "ke vaseh mardome Iran daaem sineh chaak mikonan vali na hich gohi hastan va na hich gohi vaseh on mardom mikhoran" They have already weeded out scumbags like you who belong to the waste dumps of our history. Your likes destroyed Iran once in 1978. Now just crawl into your holes and stay there, maybe something good will come out of it.


jamshid

Re: anti-rajavi anti-pahlavi anti neocon

by jamshid on

To Mr. anti-everybody:

You are WRONG when you say that the Iranian people hate the Pahlavis more than the IRI. Got that? WRONG. Wake up from your dream fantasy of hate. The only ones who hate the pahlavis more than the IRI are the IRI lackeys and the mojahedins and a few lost souls like you. Ordinary people in Iran remember the shah with positive thoughts and good memories of a prosperous past. That is why they refer to the shah as "khoda biamorz".

 


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Kamangir is the head of Ashraf Pahlavi's drug cartel

by Anti-Rajavi, Anti-Pahlavi, Anti-neocon (not verified) on

What non-Iranians have to realize is that the so-called Iranian "opposition" consists of two main wings:

1) The first are the former allies of executed Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, i.e the Mojahedin-e Khalq

2) The second are cronies of the Pahlavis who want to return to Iran in order to get their loot back. The mollahs stole from these monarchist henchmen, and before that, these henchmen stole from the previous Qajar dynasty, etc, etc.

You have to laugh when the Pahlavist and Rajavist scum make a pretense of appealing to the popular will in Iran. No matter how dissatisfied the population in Iran is with the IRI (and they are very dissatisfied), they will never rise up in order to put the lowlifes sitting in Los Angeles back in power.

Kamangir, you're only hope of entering Iran is by catching a ride in an Abrams tank, and that will never happen. Meanwhile, a subhuman like you can continue advocating the economic strangulation of the Iranian people by the same piece-of-garbage U.S. government that massacred millions of Vietnamese civilians and pretend that sanctions will only impact the ruling mollahs. When will animals like you realize that sanctions hurt the average people more than the rulers?


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The powers who brought the

by Kamangir on

The powers who brought the Islamic Mafia to power in Iran are the only powers that can actually force them to leave. However, this can be done without any war. The Iranian Islamic regime is very vulnerable to the severe economic sanctions. It's an expired mafia that will collapse very soon with the help of international powers.


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Iranian "opposition"

by Anti-Rajavi, Anti-Pahlavi, Anti-neocon (not verified) on

The so-called Iranian opposition is a series of Rajavist and Pahlavist front organizations who have a prove history of collaborating with the CIA, Mossad, and (in the case of the MKO) Saddam's regime when he was bombing Iran's cities and using chemical weapons to kill many thousands of Iranians. The IRI has become increasingly unpopular in Iran due its corruption, economic mismanagement and repressiveness, but the subhumans who call themselves the Iranian "opposition" and collaborate with the U.S. government are hated even more than the IRI. If the U.S. or Israeli governments attack Iran, we have to remember who these animals supporting the U.S. government are and make them pay a terrible price for supporting war and economic sanctions against Iran. Whether these animals admit it or not, sanctions hurt average people more than they do the leaders; it was true in Iraq and it is true in Iran too.


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Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in

by marg bar mullahs and mullah lovers (not verified) on

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a management consultant (IRA regime spy) and a contributing writer (on the government payroll) for many online journals.

Shame on you

You are trying to scare iranians abroad (not in Iran because they know your type)in regards to regime change...we know who you are really worried about not Iran and Iranians, but the end of paycheck you collect everymonth endorsed by Mr. Rafsanjani and his sons.


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No foreigners!

by Anonymous1 (not verified) on

There is a part of Dr. Bakhtiar article that caught my eye:
.
Who would like to see foreign boots kicking down doors in the middle of the night? Who would like to see women and children crying in terror as their houses are searched and their men-folk blindfolded, manhandled and taken to prisons? Who would like to see picture of rapes of his or her fellow citizens by foreign troops? Please stand-up and be counted. Don’t hide behind slogans.
.
I agree with him. We Iranians much prefer the Pasdars to boot kicking down our doors, or search our houses while our women are crying, or take us to prison, or rape our citizens... We MUST NOT stand up and be counted when it comes to our rights, instead we should hide behind slogans...
.
Well done Dr. Bakhtiar, well done.


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Iranians, including those in

by Help stop more wars and murders (not verified) on

Iranians, including those in many opposition groups have expressed their position that they are against Iran to be attacked and bombed. No one in their sane mind would want such a tragic event to happen.
An article today talks about the warmongers: //www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/09/24/ah...


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