The escape route

Iran-IAEA agreement provides US a major opportunity to clear up its genuine concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program


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The escape route
by Mohammad Kamaali
10-Oct-2007
 

Iran's recent deal with the IAEA provides the best path out from diplomatic deadlock. Washington, however, seems set to miss another opportunity.
Following intense negotiations, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced in late August a new work plan reached with Iran, aimed at resolving all outstanding issues in Iran's nuclear file by the end of the year.

The agreement was branded as "a significant step forward" by the Agency's Director General, Dr Mohamed El-Baradei. It was also hailed as a move in the right direction by most of the 118 nations of the Non-Aligned Movement who have consistently recognised Iran's right to a nuclear energy program.

Sour grapes
Western countries - the United States and the "EU3" of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in particular - were less impressed. Done without their consent or advice, the deal angered many western diplomats, who suggested that El-Baradei's IAEA was "over-stepping" its role. Most galling for the west was how the deal left Iran's enrichment program wholly intact, dealing a blow to American and European efforts to force a suspension of such enrichment.

Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities were concealed for nearly two decades partly out of fear of bombardment and sabotage during the war with Iraq, in which the US maintained active intelligence cooperation with Saddam Hussein. Nevertheless, Iran is not obliged to declare the existence of these facilities to the IAEA until six months before any nuclear material is introduced to the centrifuges. Iran did little wrong in hiding such facilities in the past, but their legitimate concealment was still considered by the United States as indicative of the alleged war-like aims of Iran's nuclear activities.

Sitting on a bayonet?
The recent agreement between Iran and the IAEA has already gone a long way to confirming the peaceful nature of significant parts of Iran's nuclear program. On plutonium experiments - one of the key US concerns - the agreement stresses: "...earlier statements made by Iran are consistent with the Agency's findings, and thus this matter is resolved."

And on enrichment activities: "The Agency has been able to verify the non-diversion of the declared nuclear materials at the enrichment facilities in Iran and has therefore concluded that it remains in peaceful use".

Such revelations come after two sets of American-initiated United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran which demand a complete halt to Iran's enrichment activities. Iran has rejected the sanctions resolutions as illegitimate and unjust, as they contradict Article IV of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which grants all member states the inalienable right "to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination". This includes enrichment at low grades used as fuel in nuclear reactors which is what Iran currently produces at Natanz and Isfahan under the supervision of the IAEA.

Missed opportunities
Back in 2003, Iran voluntarily suspended its enrichment activities, while it was negotiating with the EU3 on a comprehensive package of security guarantees and incentives. The talks, however, led nowhere. The European diplomats later admitted that the package was "an empty box of chocolates" and that "there is nothing else we can offer ... the Americans simply wouldn't let us."

In the same year, the Bush administration rejected a secret proposal from Iran which outlined significant compromises and the resolution of all outstanding issues between the two countries. Had the US taken up Iran's offer at the time and more recently in the bilateral meetings in Iraq, we would have a win-win situation where Iran could successfully use its influence in the political spectrum of post-invasion Iraq to prevent bloodshed.

With the US failing to provide any tangible incentives or even security guarantees for Iran to continue its temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, the negotiations broke down in September 2005. Ever since, Iran has routinely rejected any suggestion of stopping its enrichment activities again.

Tehran, nevertheless, tried to reach a species of compromise. After the resumption of enrichment in late 2005, Washington dismissed an Iranian proposal for the US and other countries to join a consortium that would develop Iran's enrichment industry. By actively participating in such a consortium, US officials would have seen first-hand that the program is not geared towards military purposes.

The recently concluded IAEA deal with Iran has also failed to make an impression on American diplomatic intransigence. Not only has Washington refused to support the agreement, which would render Iran's nuclear activities more transparent, but in the first few days after the deal's announcement, the Bush administration launched a smear campaign against the IAEA and its officials as having exceeded their mandate" .

Targeting Iran
By belligerently branding Iran as its number one enemy, and by ignoring Iran's positive gestures, the US is losing an opportunity for rapprochement with a country that has mutual interests in regional stability and could help secure American energy needs.

Such wilful errors suggest that the Bush administration is less concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons as it is with isolating and demonising Iran.

It is of little coincidence that since news of Iran's cooperation with the IAEA emerged, the Bush administration has increasingly issued wild and dubious accusations about alleged Iranian involvement in the violence in Iraq. The recent detention in northern Iraq of an Iranian businessman - which has even been protested by Iraq's Kurdish president Jalal Talabani, a staunch American ally - is symptomatic of the White House's patchy and erratic efforts to open up another front of pressure against Iran.

Iran is a poor choice for a scapegoat in Iraq. Having lost track of 190,000 weapons issued to Iraqi security forces since 2003, US forces should not be surprised to find themselves engaged in an open-ended fight with insurgents while basic security remains a distant prospect in many Iraqi towns.

While the US has closed its eyes to the realities of Iran, other major powers are using this situation to their own benefit. Only last month, China surpassed Germany as Iran's top trade partner. Negotiations continue on a groundbreaking Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. As European politicians try to find a role to play between Iran and the US, Iran's lucrative market and its energy reaches are being steered towards future superpowers who share Iran's economic interests.

Lessons of recent history
The recent agreement between Iran and the IAEA provides a major opportunity for the US to clear up its genuine concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program. Tehran has warned that this agreement will be jeopardised should a fresh round of sanctions be imposed on Iran. Yet, the Bush administration continues to pressure its European allies to impose unilateral sanctions against Iran through the EU.

This approach harms American, European and Iranian interests at the same time; but more importantly, it will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the IAEA to conduct its inspections not only in Iran but also in all the other 46 (including 14 western European) countries that, according to the IAEA, are in the same situation as Iran.

The history of the relationship between the IAEA and the US in the run up to the invasion of Iraq serves as a warning for all those who blindly support the US position on Iran. Three days before the attack on Iraq, Vice President Cheney famously claimed that the IAEA was simply "wrong."

How many more innocent lives does it take for us to understand who is wrong?

Mohammad Kamaali is a UK board member of the Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran (CASMII)


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RE : This is BS, ....

by someone (not verified) on

It seems you have not been in Iran for quit sometime. Like it or not IRI is not run just by “AKHONDS”. Additionally they are not separate from the rest of society. Just like ordinary Iranians there are some “AKHONDS” that have helped the country do well, while there are other “AKHONDS” that have been filling their pockets.
…and there are “AKHONDS” such as Khamenei that have been very smart in playing their cards, otherwise Blackwater USA and MKO mercenaries would be using Iranians for target practice in Iran, and rest of the world would “feel bad” at most!


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to Q: This is BS, ....

by shaboon_bikaleh (not verified) on

Q

How about if YOU move undergraound? You hate everything Iranian. Then why are you reading and participating in iranian.com on Iranian matters? Are you an Israeli? If you are, go f... that wall! We are proud iranians, and we think we can discuss and suggest ideas for our nation in civility. The direction of progress and evolution in iran over the last 30 years has been OK and we hope it continues. What is wrong with that Q?


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RE: double standards

by someone (not verified) on

Yes Sina, Joseph Cirincione, former US director of non-proliferation in one of his recent interviews said who are we to say what Iran should not do when the British have recently allocated some $40 billion to enhance their nuclear capability (google Joseph Cirincione).


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This is BS, IRI regime is expanding its program away from IAEA

by Q... (not verified) on

They are moving it underground. NEVER EVER TRUST AKHOOND JAMAAAT>


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double standards

by sina (not verified) on

The astonishing level of double standards implemented against Iran is hard to grasp.

So what that some facilities were concealed or are built underground? who are the EU or the Americans to tell Iran what to hide and what not to hide? All those facilities are now under IAEA inspection and that's good enough. who knows how many underground facilities the US has or France or Britain??

I wonder if LoveOfLiberty also follows so closely the implementation of the other half of the NPT which calls on nuclear-weapons states to disarm. any violations on that by any chance?!?

To expect Iran to act like an angle and start talking of sanctions or war as soon as it puts one foot wrong is really bizarre in face of all the other gross violators of the same treaty, but it seems this has become the norm and it's hardly questioned by anyone.

Iranian's are mad if they rely on russia or china for anything let alone their future energy requirements. Becoming self sufficient on this front, any additional nuclear fuel can be exported. Just google enriched uranium prices, notice what has happened in that market during the last five years and you'll actually find an economic case too in favour of enrichment on its own.


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RE: Greate Article - we need more!

by someone (not verified) on

Yes, Mehdi,
The irony is that some top US generals (John Abizaid is the latest one) and CIA analysts say that even an Iran with nuclear bomb poses no threat to the region or Israel. They don’t say this because they like Iran but because they know how powerful US is. They also realize that IRI’s military policy is a defensive one and Iran spends only a tiny fraction of what the US spends on its military.


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To: Truthseeker

by LoverOfLiberty (not verified) on

Thanks for replying to my comment. I think it is good to debate this issue...as well as other issues.

1) There are other NPT countries who have nuclear enrichment technologies besides France and Germany...such as Russia and China. And these countries are certainly on better terms with Iran than several "Western" countries. Did Iran ask these countries before they decided to seek Khan's underground market? And, why decide to covertly purchase this equipment in the first place if Iran truly has a desire to be transparent with regards to her nuclear program?

2) Perhaps there was a desire on the part of the Iranian government to "protect" its enrichment facility at Natanz. But, it is rather difficult to 100% conclude that protection alone was the purpose for burying that facility since it would also be concealed from prying eyes.

3) If you read through the documention from the IAEA and the AEOI there are statements stated therein that reveal a history of numerous lies/misinformation presented by the government of Iran. For instance, in October 2003 Iran failed to mention in its "full disclosure" that it had purchased foreign components for, built, and tested P-2 type centrifuges. (These are considerably more efficient centrifuges than the P-1 type centrifuges that the IAEA believed Iran was working with.) Then, when the IAEA discovered that these activities did indeed take place, Iran declared that they neglected to include these activities because of "time pressure in preparing the declaration." Similarly, the Iranian government stated in August 2003 that it had conducted laser-based experiments but that these activities did not involve nuclear material nor enrichment. However, after IAEA inspectors visited the sites where these experiments took place and gathered evironmental samples, the Iranian regime suddenly declared in October 2003 that they had "carried out laser enrichment experiments using previously undeclared imported uranium metal." So, if the Iranian government was acting dishonestly then towards the international community, why should they be trusted at their word today? (There are other examples of lies/misinformation presented by the Iranian government with regards to her nuclear program that I can point to if you like.)

4) Well, if you ask me, the NPT-signed countries are responsible for living up to their obligations as stated in this treaty rather than negotiating a better deal that suits their fancy. And, if you ask me, El-Baradei's self-imposed role as a diplomat, rather than as the objective observer he was hired to be, is grounds for the conclusion that the NPT really isn't an effective treaty since its terms stated therein are, therefore, open to subjective-and negotiable-interpretations. And, again, it appears as if, at every step, Iran is simply stalling for time.

5) Actually, the Bushehr reactor is supposed to be fueled for its expected lifetime under an agreement with Russia. So, again, where is all of this enriched uranium going to be used that Iran is striving to produce and has already produced?


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Greate Article - we need more!

by Mehdi (not verified) on

Let's all work towards peaceful solutions. I have seen even some Iranians supporting an attack on iran (by US) and they seem to believe that such an attack would be good for Iran and iranians. Please poele, the country is slowly coming out of its harshest times. Lets embrace more peaceful solutions and have our country become strong and established. This is no to de-stabilize the iranian government, no matter how much we dislike them.


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to: Love of Liberty

by truthseeker (not verified) on

Your skepticism is not a bad thing and the questions you have are worth asking. I am in no position to answer them all to your satisfaction and I am sure the author of this article could do a better job. I will take a stab though.
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Q1: I read a good article/interview with Ali Larijani regarding this. In a nutshell, Iran tried to get nuclear technology from Western European countries in accordance to NPT. a number of deals were signed over a period of more than a decade but non of the countries carried through with their end of the deal. I believe the countries involved were Germany and France. So Iran was left with no choice but to "shop around."
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Q2: One word: Osiraq. In 1981 Iraq's nuclear facilities were bombed and destroyed by Israel against all international laws and conventions. Billions of dollars went up in smoke and the world stood by and did nothing. With that experience, it would have been foolish not to build facilities under ground and in bunkers. We now see that has turned out to be a good decision given the constant threat of attack on Iran.
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Q3: I am not sure if Iran has out right lied. They concealed some of their activities but the author addresses those here. According to the author, Iran had no obligation to declare any facilities until six months prior to introduction of nuclear material or production thereof.
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Q4: At times during negotiations of any kind, it might be to your advantage to drag your feet. This may be due to the party being up to no good but it may not be. I don't necessarily think it is an indication of guilt.
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Q5: The fuel being enriched is meant for the Bushehr reactor which is supposed to be ready for fueling.
.
That's my two cents but I think you would get better answers by sending an email to the author. He seems to be well versed on the subject.


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American Heads are now stuck in .....

by Chog_o_loo (not verified) on

The fact is that US foreign policy is run by the murderous zionists sitting in Tel Aviv. American heads are now stuck in Israeli asses, and therefore, don't expect right moves by the US government at this time.


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The Thoughts of a Skeptic

by LoverOfLiberty (not verified) on

Call me a skeptic if you like, but a nagging set of issues remain in my mind regarding Iran's nuclear program.
In short, if Iran's nuclear program is truly peaceful in nature, then why did the Iranian regime act in the way that it had acted over the past decade or so;
1) Why did it covertly purchase nuclear equipment and material when it could have been bought out in the open market under the guidelines of the NPT/IAEA? (i.e. - A. Q. Khan's nuclear blackmarket)
2) Why bury nuclear installations in bomb-proof bunkers when such installations are supposedly civilian in nature? (Bunkers conceal as well as protect.)
3) Why outright lie to the IAEA about details of Iran's nuclear program and then backtrack to tell the truth when such lies are discovered by the IAEA? (i.e. - Iran's P-2 centrifuges and laser enrichment program.)
4) Why should the Iranian regime feel the need to almost constantly and consistently delay the answering of questions posed by the IAEA for many months? (Stalling for time?)
5) Why the rush to enrich uranium for reactors that Iran does not have? (Potential power producing reactors this would fuel are a decade or more away from going online.)
While Iran's nuclear program may be supposedly peaceful in nature, Iran's actions certainly help some people, like myself, to remain very skeptical of their stated intentions.
Besides, the IAEA only knows what it is told to know. So, if Iran actively kept its nuclear program secret from the world (and the IAEA) for so long, how does the world know for sure that Iran isn't withholding nuclear program secrets right now?


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True but

by Farnaz (not verified) on

Good article. Unfortunately, the attack Iran movement is gaining momentum. It is only a matter of time before a pre-emptive military strike against various Iran's nuclear installations. Also the attack will have an element of intimidation toward the Iranian leadership and population at large.


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The missing link

by truthseeker (not verified) on

Sorry,
.
Here is the link mentioned in my last post.
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//commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/index.html


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The Guardian CiF

by truthseeker (not verified) on

Mr. Kamaali,
.
I only noticed you were based in the UK after reading your post for a second time. In that case, further to my earlier post, I suggest you get this piece published in the Guardian Unlimited in the Comment is Free (CiF) section. A link is provided at the end of my post but I am sure you are familiar with it.
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I look forward to it. I will have this page bookmarked so in case you do manage to publish it there let me know by posting here.
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Thanks and best of luck to you.


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It's the truth

by Anon (not verified) on

This is an excellent article. I hope people will forward throughout the net. Thanks for writing this.


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very odd

by ff (not verified) on

This article is a few hours old and not a single comment from the self-hating eye-ranians of Tehrangeles variety calling for nuking of Iran. I find this rather odd.
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Does Fox News have a special on Paris Hilton at the moment? Or are the welfare checks being issued today and the usual cadre is lined up at the bank?
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Very strange. There has to be an explanation.


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Excellent

by truthseeker (not verified) on

Good article with solid references and quotes. I suggest you try to get this published in a mainstream newspaper in the US. It is unlikely that they will publish it since it goes against the common propaganda we are being fed on a daily basis but it is certainly worth a try. Good luck and thank you.


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Comprehensive

by NorCal (not verified) on

The most comprehensive piece I have seen on the subject. Kudos and well done.
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"Such wilful errors suggest that the Bush administration is less concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons as it is with isolating and demonising Iran."
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This can be further evidenced by US-India nuclear deal which totally undermines non-proliferation. It is also clear as daylight that Iran's nuclear issue is just an excuse to undermine Iran. This excuse seems to be put on the back burner for now, being replaced with "Iran is killing US soldiers in Iraq". With the recent designation of Sepah as a terrorist organization, a legal path has been paved for aggression against Iran which will neither require UN approval nor the approval of Congress.
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Aggression against Iran will be ticketed as part of the ongoing war on terror for which the Admin already has Congress' approval whereas under the nuclear excuse with or without a UN mandate, a new Congressional approval is required (supposedly!). Path of least resistance will be chosen and that is why the nuclear issue, though not dead, it not the leading cause for "liberation."


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