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Warped logic
13-Dec-2007
The ink is dry on the 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. And yet the Bush Administration keeps watering down its message. One official after another has been going around calling Iran still dangerous and still a threat and still deserving of greater sanctions! So, I ask, per the line in David Letterman’s shtick, “NIE: Is this anything?” It is something alright: It is a first rate exercise in obfuscation: perhaps, it is designed to facilitate a military strike on Iran by allowing the elaboration of and attention to other reasons for continued enmity toward or possibly even attacking Iran.
In high school we used to baffle one another with closed-logic questions like “Did your parents ever catch you masturbating in the closet?” If you answered “yes,” you were admitting that (a) you masturbated and (b) you masturbated in the closet. If you answered “no,” then the inquirer would ask you “how did you manage that, the implication being that you still masturbated and continue to masturbate in the closet, evading getting caught by your parents!
There is also the gaga that asks “When was the last time you beat your wife?,” in which the assumption is that you beat your wife! The NIE’s statement that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is a perfect example of this sort of closed-logic question based on a presumed factual conclusion – you masturbate in the closet, you beat your wife and Iran had a nuclear weapons program.
Put in a different way the NIE statement in a question from would be: “Iran, did you suspend your nuclear weapons program in 2003?” If Iran says “no,” then Iran is admitting (a) there is a nuclear weapons program, and (b) it is still going on. If Iran answers “yes,” then Iran is admitting that it has a nuclear weapons program. The best answer Iran can give is “maybe.”
After the first Persian Gulf War, the United States and its allies and the United Nations ensured the destruction of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. And yet that was no barrier to the Bush Administration’s bold and false assertions that Iraq still had weapons of mass destruction and so another military strike at Iraq was necessary and justified. That Iran may have suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is no barrier to a military strike on Iran.
The strike on Iran would not be for punishing Iran for having had a nuclear weapons program, but it would be because of for Iran’s refusal to cough up all the details about its “suspended” program. The U.S. strike against Iraq in 2003 followed repeated demands on Saddam Hussein to come clean about its weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which the Bush Administration knew were not there. The U.S. also kept asking Iraq to provide evidence to the international community that it did not have WMD – in effect to prove the nonexistence of a program that was not in existence.
Iranian nuclear weapons program is not just about yellow cake production, enriching uranium or obtaining plutonium or other pursuits. There is also missile production and related military technologies that conceivably could be lumped together by the U.S. into the “nuclear weapons program.” In Iraq, the limitation on range of Iraqi missiles was one of the conditions of curbing and ultimately dismantling Iraq’s WMD program. What good is a nuclear bomb if you have no way of delivering it?
A few days ago, President Bush was somewhere in the Midwest talking up the notion that Iran is still dangerous and it must come clean and divulge all that it was doing prior to the suspension of its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Exactly, what incentive would anyone in Iran have to show anything to this or the next U.S. Administration when the U.S. will continue to demand one thing after another, with no end in sight other than perhaps the complete demilitarization of Iran, humiliation of the Iranian regime or dismemberment of the country.
Laura Numeroff’s If you give a mouse a cookie is perfect parody of the U.S. Administration’s approach to Iran. It will start with President Ahmadinejad saying a few days ago that the NIE gives an opportunity for the two countries to talk. Of course, in Washington the notion of “talk” does not exist; it is all about dictation, bullying. So Mr. Bush will ask next that Iran stop enrichment. Iran obliges. Mr. Bush will then ask if Iran would stop its missile program. Iran says “okay.” Next, the U.S. will ask if Iran would consent to all of its nuclear and nuclear-related scientists would like to go to Guantanamo and later relocate to California. “Of course,” Iran will say, “take as many experts as you wish, sir, what I have is yours.” Next, the U.S. will ask Iran to suspend its help to Hamas and Hezbollah and other groups that the U.S. does not like because they get in the way of the serious U.S. policy to promote peace in the Middle East. Iran says, “Naturally, anything for you, boss.” Then the U.S. asks Iran to recognize Israel as the Jewish State, which Iran will do willingly.
One would think all this would satisfy the U.S. Administration. Nope! When nobody is paying attention, the Iranian will also forgo the frozen assets and pay billions in damages to non-Iranian families found by the courts to have suffered from acts of terrorism. Next, the U.S. will ask that the IRI hold open and fair elections in which every conceivable political or paramilitary organization can take part. When the non-IRI candidates win, the U.S. will ask that the clergy kindly vacate their offices and homes and let the new governing elite take over. And of course the losers will go quietly. With “democracy” established in Iran, the U.S. will ask if Iran would mind terribly if Iran’s Kurdish region became a part of Kurdistan and Azerbaijan joined the Baku government and some other places were joined to areas beyond Iran’s present borders? Of course, Iran will oblige.
And as the country is no more, the U.S. will ask the Iranians to change their faith to Sunni or other religions. Iran refuses to go along with this demand. The U.S. Administration then prepares a brief supporting immediate air strikes on Iran.
Israel on the other hand is not going to wait for an elaborate scenario. Exhibit A: the recent remarks by Ephraim Sneh, former Israeli deputy defense minister and now member of the intelligence subcommittee of the Knesset. In a piece published in The Boston Globe on December 11, he ripped the NIE and asked three questions that undermined the credibility of the estimate. Then he concluded (a) Israel cannot wait for answers to the questions that he posed, (b) the estimate may reduce the likelihood of further sanctions on Iran, and therefore (c) “we would have to rely on ourselves.”
The moral of “if you give a mouse a cookie” is more than just the consequences of warped logic. It is also about the proverb “to give an inch but lose a mile.” It is about cheek, chutzpah, or in Farsi “roo” as brazen as the pumice-stone from Qazvin. The next U.S. Administration, if Mrs. Clinton’s, will see the return of the tired old three-piece suit of concerns that clothed the U.S. policy toward Iran – weapons of mass destruction, opposing the Middle East peace process, and support for international terrorism. And, of course, regime change in Iran!
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Arezu, the vast majority of
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Tue Dec 18, 2007 05:57 PM PSTArezu, the vast majority of Iranians clearly understand that you do not necessarily have to be a religious fanatic, or to wear Hijab, or things like that to be Pro-IRI. Justifying IRIs action, like you always seem to do, is the biggest method of supporting the barbaric Islamic regime. How do you define support? It is very sad that Iranian women like yourself, which by the testimony of any neutral human rights group or analysts, are one of the most oppressed groups of people around the world, continue to support the IRI. Please show your true self by supporting the IRI(By facts and figures provided by thousands of governments, NGOs, human rights groups such as Amnesty Intl, Human Rights Watch, U.N development agency…) which is 1-Khamenei ranked as one of the top 5 dictators in the world for the last 15 years or so – 2- Iran is one of top enemies of Internet 3- Iran has the biggest number of prisoned journalists in the world. 4- Iran is one the main violators of ethnic and religious minorities such as Kurds and Bahais and many others, 5- Iran is one the biggest executers of children and the number 2 in executions in the world 5-Iran has one of the lowest rankings in free speech in the world 6- has one of the top courtiers who have the “brain drain” phenomena. 7- One of the lowest rankings in educational excellence. 8- Iran has one of the lowest human development rates in the world 9- Iran is one of most closed economies in the world. 10- Iran has one of the worst records in scientific research and technology production (The official # is Iran produces .05% of the technology in the world, the U.S by the way has 46%) 11- Iran has one of the lowest performing economies in the world 12- Iran is one of the biggest oppressors of Student, feminist and worker movements in the world. (Just last month or so, according to IRIs official figures, close to 500,000 of your fellow Iranian women were arrested for medieval like crimes such as “improper dress code” (Hijab).13- the country is one of the most closed societies around the world …not to even mention the countless hundreds of thousands of our best young men and women executed and jailed since 1979,,, and the list goes on as you are well aware of. So please Arezu, explain to me and to the whole world, how do you “justify” each of these? Aren’t you saying the “the IRI helped us rid of the so called imperialism and U.S control”, so, please explain, why are we still in this situation? Or do you even believe we are in this situation?
Why am I never amazed .................
by Arezu (not verified) on Sat Dec 15, 2007 05:10 AM PSTI never resort to name calling, which is what many on this web-site do as their favorite form of attacking individuals, but for once I have to admit you guys are really dumb (and this is putting it mildly).
I will tell you; this is not even a pro Iranian web-site, let alone pro-Mullah. The fact is that anyone who brings up issues which may not feed your constituents, whomever they are with false information is automatically labeled as pro-Mullah and pro-IRI.
I don't believe anyone of you is as smart as the neoconservatives, but this is exactly the same tactics they use. Any information that goes against their agenda is automatically targeted and a new spin is put in place to discredit the information.
Even if that information goes against the interest of the American people or even the idiot of the President they, meaning the neocons, have full heartedly supported.
Just because you can't logically dot the "As" to the "Bs" does not mean the rest of us can't. And just because you don't like the truth, doesn't mean the rest of don't; and just because you wish people to remain ignorant to serve your self-serving interests does not mean that all people have your agenda.
Neither Guieve, I, nor y are the same people. Though I am proud to say we seem to have some excellent qualities in common, we do read, we are intellectuals; we are not gullible or stupid.
You guys may wish to attract a different set of audience who believe whatever your views are without "thinking", without "reading", without seeing patterns in the political system of this country. I am proud to say we are not your constituents.
This article was not about IRI, it was about the NIE report and the constant changing of the U.S. accusations against Iran. Before I go any further, do you know anything about what the NIE stands for? And if so what the report said? If the answers to both questions are "NO" then get out of this article and stop making comments.
If the response to the first two questions are yes, then let me explain the intention of this article in plain, simple, elementary school language. The article aimed at showing the constant pattern of change of the U.S. accusations with respect to Iran, and how the accusations have constantly moved from one to another when the previous accusation could not hold up. The author indicated, that this never ending accusations will not stop, because the U.S. foreign policy agenda has an ulterior motive which has nothing to do with what Iran is being accused of.
He was neither pro-IRI or pro-Mullah, but simply demonstrated the hypocrisy,and stupidity of U.S. foreign policy which is clear to many and obviously not so to some!!
I agreed with the author and added my opinions which are out there (and I don’t mean by me, but publicly available and debated on by scholars, journalists, academicians and foreign affairs experts on a daily basis) if you even bother to read.
It seems that when you are incapable of providing a factual counter argument you people always resort to labeling individuals and as one other commentator indicated “character assassination”. This is so typical of your pattern on this web-site. You think by labeling people as pro-Mullah we are going to get so scared and shaken up, and fearful that we are going to SHUT-UP; HELL NO!!
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure you guys out!
multiple personalities
by Alivarjeh (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 03:05 PM PSTHey dude, Amazed (or Mr. Sherlock Holmes,I should say). I am amazed!Excellent detective work. But how did you figure out that x, y, and z are the one and the same? If that is really true, shame on him/her/them for screwing with innocents. Is there anyhting that this web site can do to prevent that from happening? I never written to this pro-mollah site before, but I thought this situation is bad enough to merit a comment.
NR: Sorry if I offended you ...
by DingDong2 (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 01:34 PM PSTNR: You aksed to tell more about myself. And since I do not know you, I asked "Who wants to know?" Are you prepared to share about yourself also? Or you are just one-way? Now, you go and call me "defensive." Sorry, if I offended you! In any event, what does NR stand for? DingDong is what Big Ben used to sound like when I first arrived here. Telling, isn't it?
Nevermind!
by NR (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:26 AM PSTVery defensive. I lost interest.
By the way, I'm Iranian-American and right now visting Tehran.
NR
by DingDong2 (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 10:22 AM PSTWho wants to know?
DingDong
by NR (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 09:54 AM PSTYou are interesting. Tell us a little bit about yourself. In general terms of course. How come you read this site?
humiliation of IRI regime?
by DingDong2 (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 09:10 AM PSTAmazed, I read the same article as you (I am assuming)and I and did not come away with the same impression as you. I did not get the sense that he was defending IRI or a regime that is killing people. He was criticising the Bush Administration and also the previous Clinton Administration with respect to their inability to engage foreign adversaries like Iran. He is right. If any party who is invited to negociations or diplomacy (as Bush claims is his agenda with respect to Iran) but is asked to first meet some preconditions, then what is the point of negociating/diplomacy about a subject that is itself the bone of contention? I think he is also right in characterising the Bush concept of negociations as dictation; it fits the bullying style of this Administration with everyone around the world. Look at Bali. I think he is far more critical about the US foreign policy than IRI's, but then that is not the IRI that he was writing about (at least I did not get that sense). Unlike Arezu, I do not think that he is anti-Israeli or sees AIPAC behind everything that the US is doing with respect to IRI. How you and others get all this from reading the same article is beyond me. I sense a personal vendetta, and Fred's remarks previously about another piece by Mr. Mirfendereski was tinged equally with personal attacks. Unless you or Fred or others know more about him, I give cannot figure out the basis of your attacks on him. Maybe we should all start reading children's books; obviously, some people with their comments on this thread have read very little. It shows.
funny!
by amazed (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 07:25 AM PSTananymous 0.5? and arezu and native,and Guive are all the same person!!!!just multiple personalitites of the same sick mind!
why don't you pick one name instead being me ,myself and I?
Ad hominem - Association fallacy & Personal Attack
by Native (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 04:04 AM PSTBravo Guive, simply brilliant. You can not put it nay more simpler than this. It seems you hit a cord with Camp Ashraf and Sponsors … ministry of misinformation (MM)
Rule #1 in ministry of misinformation:
If you can not make a counter argument, start mud-slinging and character assassination.
MM, Do not try to confuse the issue.
This not about support for IRI…
This is not about how much more Iranian you are than the rest ...
This is about Iran and all Iranians and the right to develop Nuclear Technology…
So, if you think the above argument is invalid, present your case and please refrain turning to personal attack.
Trust me when I say this, everyone can see right trough you when you start this kind of trash name calling…
As far as nuclear technology, we Iranians have to take a long term view
and put these events in historical context …
Given the current world geopolitical context and threats, It would be very short sighted to expect and demand an immediate and dramatic change in Iran’s political structure at this time
Change will come sooner or later ...
The penultimate emenation of
by Anonymous½ (not verified) on Fri Dec 14, 2007 01:36 AM PSTThe penultimate emenation of bitter mind of curmudgeon..
Ding dong you have been reading too many children's books!
by amazed (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 09:07 PM PSTWe are talking about a regime that has killed thousands of inocent young people and still is killing them,and you are using children's books analogy to solve real problem of real people.Get a grip,he talks about humiliation of this wonderfull IRI government! by US,meanwhile the idiot who is the president of IRI announces to the world that we do not have homosexuals in Iran!!!!Should I say more.All I am saying is that if he is not an Iranian he should take his nose out of it,and so do you!
Or you guys should buy a ticket together and go for a trip to Iran! It would be rude awakaning for both of you morons!
Go and write about never never land and happy migits.
Very good argument.
by IraniIrooni (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 07:46 PM PSTLogically this makes sense and I agree with it. Unfortunately, most of the voters in the US, or around the world, do not use logic to make decisions. And the white house knows that better than anyone. As a politician, the first thing you learn is how speed up the heart beat of the people listening to you, how to get them fired up and/or how to make them feel you're just like them. Once that's done, you, as a politician, can do and say and justify literally anything. Emotional decision making, part of human nature and many times creating the bloodshed which is also considered as part of human nature.
Mirfendereski Nationality
by Polka (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 07:26 PM PSTExcuse me, is Mirfendereski Polish? There is a very famous Polish composer named Pendereski. Could they be related? I habe heard that in Hungaria there is a name like Deresk that actually comes from Derezhek, which no body knows what means.
Nationality?
by DingDong2 (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 07:11 PM PSTArezu is right. This guy thinks in a way that others do not. If you have not read the children's story about the mouse who gets a cookie and evetually ends up owning the house practically, then you missed the whole point of this article. I have a four-year old and a five-year old and they love this story, because in their own way they get it. Why every time he writes sometnhg a bunch of you jump on him about being pro-IRI or asking about his nationality or that he should go back to Iran, etc. His bio is on line, check it out; he was born in Iran. I am an American and I thing George Bush is an idiot. I guess I too should go to Iran or that I am pro-IRI and do not realize it yet. You guys need to learn to read better and think a little more critically. If you know him and he gets under your skin, then don't read his stuff. What is this obsession with jumping him? Maybe Amazed and his buddies are the ones in need of Prozac!
What is your nationality Guive?
by Amazed (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 04:27 PM PSTI have never heard such a paranoid delusional argument.You need to be on prozac.seriously !and arezo needs some of it too.Every one is against this poor mazlom IRI government?So have you talked to marshians too about this matter?
Oh my God what a bizzar mind!!!!
FINALLY AN ARTICLE OF LOGIC on this topic- EXCELLENT!!
by Arezu (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 12:04 PM PSTDear Gieve:
Thank you for an excellent and well written article. My God, why is it so difficult to get others to understand this issue? It has nothing to do with Iran's nuclear program; the U.S./U.K./Israel have other agendas. U.S. wants: (1) regime change with installation of a pliant-puppet regime that will give the U.S./U.K. multinational oil and gas companies lucrative production sharing agreements (just like it just did to Iraq) of Iran's oil and gas reserves;(2) further expansion of U.S. empire bases thereby gaining strategic control of the vital oil pipeline routes from Iran into Central and East Asia; and (3) Thwart Iran's international oil bourse that could threaten the status quo of the petrodollar system.
Israel as always needs to have a chaotic Middle East and wars prove good for the Zionist State. The more embroiled the Middle East is in war, the more Israel can shy away from dealing with the Palestinian issue. Furthermore, when all of Israel's "supposed" enemies are destroyed, contained, powerless, the better for Israel. Anyway without wars the Zionist State does not have much excuses to ask for more financial and military aid from the U.S. - so keep the wars going - not only is it good for the U.S. military industrial complex, but just as good for Israel.
And I fully agree with Guieve that the NIE report in no way removes any threat from Iran. Now the U.S./U.K./France and Israel are stating that it had a nuclear weapons program and can re-start it at anytime again. It is even more of a threat now! No amount of inspections is going to build "confidence", because confidence is not the issue. Each time Iran gives in to one thing, another excuse will be thrown at it, a never ending vicious cycle.
So, the issue is why give in at all!!! I don't see any reason - there is absolutely no evidence of a genuine desire by the super power to engage in dialogue in order to solve whatever issues the two countries have with one another. Even if the U.S. wishes for dialogue you can see the flames coming out of the nostrils of BiBi Netanyahu and other Israeli hawks.
Thank you again for an excellent article.
So smart?
by Anonymous436 (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 08:14 AM PSTThat is the problem with idiots like you, Anaysit (or anlaist?). This article is not about the mullahs. It is about a bully US foreign policy that yields no result. If Bush can do this to IRI/Iran it can do it to another Iran too, including the one that twisted people like you would like to establish in order to have your brand of heaven on earth established on its rubble. Mr. Mirfenderky is right on the money!
you are so smart
by The Analysit (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 07:31 AM PSTMy god you are so smart.
So when was the last time you went to Iran (which basically means do admit that you live here and perhaps you need to get back to your favorite place and live withthe mullas-using your own logic).
Insane expectations
by farokh2000 on Thu Dec 13, 2007 06:36 AM PSTYour point is right on. But the fact that everything U.S does is driven by the orders from AIPAC and the Multinationals, will eventually lead to the destruction of the Capitalist Empire. Not by Iran or other non-superpower but by the Capitalist itself.
This is the age of Media and Internet, they cannot fool and brain wash people forever.
All their actions will blow right in their faces, sooner than they can imagine.
Zionists are behind troubles .....
by zionist nabashid (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 06:16 AM PSTYour argument is valid. Question is who is really behind this war mongering? The only vivid conclusion based on public information is ZIONISTS and their allies (neocons) in the W administration.
Sana logic
by Fred (not verified) on Thu Dec 13, 2007 02:37 AM PSTThe logical conclusion of this highly partisan, sans logic write up is that the poor little old Islamist republic is being persecuted by the bad mean US for no good reason. The title fits the content to a T.