The newest and much-anticipated International Atomic Energy Agency report on safeguards activities in Iran was sent to the IAEA Member States on February 22, 2008 and almost immediately leaked to the press. As usual, no one was completely satisfied by it but everyone could find in it something that upholds his or her particular point of view.
And as usual, the most important part of the report – that dealing with Iran's ongoing uranium enrichment program, with the potential to provide the material for a nuclear explosive device -- was relegated to the end of the report. However, this is a much more serious report than its predecessors and it includes much new information, especially about Iran's development of a nuclear explosive device and preparations for testing and mounting a warhead on a ballistic missile. It is not a simple report and it demands more than basic knowledge of the technical issues.
According to the report, Iran has been continuously enriching uranium, albeit at a slow pace, but it is also preparing to install many more enrichment machines and is testing a new type of machine which would allow for a much faster rate of enrichment. Thus, if the IAEA report is correct and if there are no concealed enrichment facilities or activities, the possibility that Iran would have the potential for producing its first nuclear explosive device around the turn of the decade does not seem far-fetched.
As before, the major part of the report deals with the IAEA's search into the past for answers to the "remaining outstanding issues,” and it leaves the discussion of the all-important question of ongoing enrichment activities to the latter part of the report.
What are these issues? The present report enumerates five: the source of highly enriched uranium particles found at a university; a document detailing the method for transforming uranium-hexafluoride gas into metal and machining it into hemispheres "which are components of nuclear weapons;" Polonium-210, whose main use is in neutron sources suitable for use in nuclear weapons; the Gchine uranium mine; and the "alleged studies" of subjects "which could have a military nuclear dimension…", including the conversion of some uranium compounds, the testing of high explosives, and the design of a missile reentry vehicle. The report discloses, for the first time, information about the procurement and attempted procurement of many critical components for the development of nuclear explosives, studies into nuclear explosives-related areas, and the development of specialized detonators and detonation systems. Iran cannot come up with a reasonable explanation for this information and has stated that “the data have been fabricated."
It is not quite clear why the Gchine mine comes under scrutiny, since the document governing safeguards, INFCIRC-153, states: "(35) The Agreement should provide that safeguards shall not apply thereunder to material in mining or ore processing activities." The other four issues are all connected to nuclear weapons. Some of these are quite old, such as the Polonium issue and the contamination issue, but it took Iran several years to come up with answers, some of which strike many observers as oddly imaginative. For example, the reason for producing Polonium-210 (perhaps the most radiotoxic substance known to man) was given as "fundamental research" for a simple process that "was not aimed at a specific application". Iran also produced documents claiming that Polonium has potential use in radioisotope batteries.
Still, the IAEA gives Iran the benefit of a doubt and the report states that some Iranian explanations are either "consistent with its findings" (e.g., concerning the Polonium experiments) or "are not inconsistent with its findings" (e.g., concerning contamination). The uranium metal issue has been (inexplicably) assigned minor importance and remains unresolved. The "not inconsistent" assessment means that the Iranians have finally come up with a cover story that the IAEA cannot find fault with but with which it is apparently not very comfortable. Technically speaking, the contamination story leaves many ancillary unanswered questions that the IAEA chose not to delve into. However, the IAEA also gives qualified hope to the Iranians in that most issues could be resolved provided they Iranians comply with Additional Protocol inspections.
The report states that "The one major remaining issue relevant to the nature of Iran’s nuclear programme is the alleged studies on the green salt project, high explosives testing and the missile re-entry vehicle. This is a matter of serious concern and critical to an assessment of a possible military dimension to Iran’s nuclear programme… Iran has maintained that these allegations are baseless and that the data have been fabricated." This means that once the issues of the development of the nuclear explosive device and the development of the missile warhead are resolved, the IAEA thinks that it can declare that Iran has come clean and is absolved of all accusations of prior infractions. Can these issues be resolved by the IAEA? Can they be "resolved" at all, when all indications, both technical and political, point at the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?
The IAEA alone cannot be the judge of this since nuclear explosive mechanisms' development and missile warhead design and testing, including the apparent preparations for underground testing of nuclear explosives, are not within its purview and are outside its areas of competence. These issues must be dealt with elsewhere, by knowledgeable experts (coming from Nuclear Weapons States), and preferably outside the aegis of the IAEA.
There is another surprise emanating from the report. The IAEA Secretariat (the staff that runs the technical work of the IAEA) completely adopts the agreement written by Iran and attached to its report of August 30, 2007. However, Iran's text limits the scope of the Agency's search into the past and sets the scenario for exonerating Iran from all past misdeeds. Admittedly, the IAEA leaves open the option for looking into other matters, but Iran could raise objections that such a search would contradict its agreement with the IAEA. That is a possible trap that greater foresight could have avoided.
To conclude, this is a very serious report, and though it does not explicitly condemn Iran, it implicitly warns that concerns about Iranian nuclear ambitions are far from being dispelled.
Ephraim Asculai worked at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) for over 40 years, mainly on issues of nuclear and environmental safety. He is a Senior Research Fellow at The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel aviv -- an independent academic institute that studies key issues relating to Israel's national security and Middle East affairs.
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major source of instability in ME (To ChAkhAnjAn)
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Tue Mar 04, 2008 08:36 PM PSTFarhad chAkhAn says: "the leftist propaganda machine started this belief during the cold war that the CIA has some ultra human ability to control everything that happens in the world, therefore, everything that does happen in the world is a CIA conspiracy !"
Farhad chAkhAn, actually people like Michael Scheuer show that even in CIA there are some descent people, ... that try to correct those neocon/AIPAC disasters that you support.
Per Michael F. Scheuer the 22-year CIA veteran, lack of US understanding of the region and US wrong policies are the major cause of the issues in the middle east including the rise of islamic fanatics particularly the wahabi terrorism.
(see his interviews, for example: //youtube.com/watch?v=SmXQPnvfA1w&feature=rel... ).
chAkhAnjAn, don't confuse CIA with KGB get a hold of your complex and highly imaginative mind!
Anonym7, the leftist
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Tue Mar 04, 2008 06:50 PM PSTAnonym7, the leftist propaganda machine started this belief during the cold war that the CIA has some ultra human ability to control everything that happens in the world, therefore, everything that does happen in the world is a CIA conspiracy ! And offcourse, some Iranians like yourself, parroted the propaganda coming out of Moscow to blame everything on the U.S and CIA without even stopping for a second to think how does those actual CIA supports or plots translate into action on the ground? You never think about looking at the details of the story. You look at the Shah and his supporters or Khomeini and his supporters on the ground in Iran oppressing people; you wouldn’t see a single CIA agent or American soldiers in the “Komiteh” or in “Even”. Yet to go around and insists this is an American conspiracy, as if we the people, are somehow unable or disable to make any difference! As if we sit back there and it’s the U.S that comes out changing things for us and as if we’re blind or incapable to do anything about it. Also, since you keep calling me names, I have nothing else to tell you since you have obviously a brain for a 5 year old by engaging in character assassination, and usually 5 year old brains aren’t capable of understanding complex political realities. So you can keep believing that its all CIA and all U.S, say hi to your friend Khamenei, tell him we’re after him and we’ll get him!
major source of instability in ME (To Frahad ChAkhAn)
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Mon Mar 03, 2008 09:16 PM PSTFarhad chAkhAn says: "So please stop listening to Khamenei and Chavez ..."
Farhad chAkhAn, per Michael F. Scheuer the 22-year CIA veteran, lack of US understanding of the region and US wrong policies are the major cause of the issues in the middle east including the rise of islamic fanatics particularly the wahabi terrorism.
(see his interviews, for example: //youtube.com/watch?v=SmXQPnvfA1w&feature=rel... ).
chAkhAnjan, don't confuse CIA with Chevez and Khamenei!
Anonym7, first of all, the
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Mon Mar 03, 2008 02:00 PM PSTAnonym7, first of all, the fact that you call names shows the true characteristic of you and your argument. Second, are you saying that the Islamic world with a population of 1 billion proud people, consisted of many different countries and civilizations and old history and traditions, with so much resources and human power, are unable to control their destiny and solve their own problems and live together in peace, and you naively, and simple mindedly, and ill-intentionally, blame U.S’s misunderstanding of the Middle East on all these centuries old problems? Problems like the Arab-Persian and the Arab-Jewish conflict that existed since hundreds of years, before America was even inhabited? Are you just naïve or really have bought the ultra leftist, Islamic fundamentalist argument, or you’re intentionally trying to distort the truth? Or all of the above? So please stop listening to Khamenei and Chavez and start listening to the Iranian people inside of Iran!
When some of these misguided
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Mon Mar 03, 2008 01:50 PM PSTWhen some of these misguided Iranians are realize that “talking” and “negotiating” means different to the fascist regime in Tehran than what it means to the rest of the world? What does these mean spirited and confused leftists and IRI apologists wants the world community to negotiate with the regime for? Don’t they know the nature of this regime? Do they want the world to sit down and give the regime assurances that they won’t try to overthrow them and give them some kind of incentives and in return they give up they’re enrichment and stop supporting terrorism, because they think a war on our homeland would be avoided forever and bring stability to Iraq so the U.S can leave with high heads? Are we looking for instant gratification versus tackling the problem from its roots, which we’re 30 years late doing that? Whats that’s gonna do, delay a war a few years late, and in the meantime let the IRI gains more power so it would be even harder and bloodier to encounter it later on? The nature of this regime is to thrive and survive on instability and exporting its revolutionary ideas (i.e. fundamental Islam); that has been they’re stated goal since day 1. What that means, sure, they would love the world to ask them to negotiate, that is a huge propaganda victory, but because of their fierce anti-West rhetoric, they would never initiate it. What they do is they take advantage of the bad situation encountering the U.S in Iraq and the divide in the international community over how to tackle the regime, to further their rhetoric and agenda. To them, stepping back from their anti west rhetoric and stepping back from stop supporting terrorism groups and stop exporting the revolution ( and recently stop enriching uranium without negotiating) means the death of the regime, so it will never, ever, in a million years happen. So we can fool ourselves all we want, but till we have this regime in power, Iran will never see a bright day, the Middle East will be never be at ease, and stability in the world will never achieve. If we really wanna avoid a war, 1-we as Iranians need to put all efforts and energy in effectively countering and fighting this regime, not use anti west rhetoric and blame U.S and Israel and Arabs and Bigfoot for the problems this regime has been causing the world for the last 30 years. That way we will take matters into our own hands without having to give matters to the U.S army, and the world, or at least, most of the world, will undoubtedly support us. 2- The international community needs to ignore this regime and teats them like dirt, embargo on the government (Not the people), espionage, isolation, cutting off diplomatic ties, ..what have you.
major source on instability in ME? (to ChAkhAn extremists)
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:42 AM PSTFarhad chAkhAn says: "It’s about time you stop getting brainwashed by your leftist and Islamic fascist friends."
chAkhAnjan, lack US understanding of the region and US wrong policies are the major cause of the issues in the middle east including the rise of islamic fanatics particularly the wahabi terrorism.
Farhad chAkhAn, those are the words of Michael F. Scheuer the 22-year CIA veteran (see his interviews, for example: //youtube.com/watch?v=SmXQPnvfA1w&feature=rel... ).
chAkhAnjan, it is about time you stop regurgitating the brown stuff that were feed to you by the neocon/AIPAC fascists such as John Bolton!
BTW chAkhAnak, the link above is from one of Michael's interviews with the right wing Fox TV. Are you going to classify me as a right wing pro CIA?
Anonym7, my misguided and
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Sun Mar 02, 2008 06:22 AM PSTAnonym7, my misguided and misinformed Iranian! No it wasn’t them (By the way, they're not my friends) who created the mess, let me educate you why. It’s about time you stop getting brainwashed by your leftist and Islamic fascist friends. First of all, Iraq was a bomb waiting to go off. It had these internal mini civil wars since the day of the Baathist regime taking power. The Kurds were fighting for decades in the North and the Shites the same in the South. This new Civil War is nothing new. Second, The Middle East has been a virtual war zone since the day of your beloved regime in Tehran taking power and hijacking our revolution against monarchy and tyranny in 1979. This regime’s official and non official policy is to support guerilla movements including Shite and Sunni violent and fundamental movements in Iraq, whether you want to call them freedom fighters or terrorists (I would call all of them fundamentalist, violent, medieval, terrorist organizations). That itself is a humongous source of instability in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East and it is spreading worldwide, and it has been doing that since day 1 of its evil existence. I had and have no problem with Arab or Muslim or even non-Arab or non-Muslim countries using all possible means to force Israel to give back the areas it occupied in 1967 and let Palestinians go back so there will be peace, however, not in a million years I would support groups such the fascist regime in Tehran or Hamas or Islamic Jihad or others who use the Palestinian issue to further their agenda and in reality what they really want to do is oppress their people, create a clash of civilization and bring the world to the edge of another world war.
Dear Hooman H
by Sharghi (not verified) on Sun Mar 02, 2008 05:24 AM PSTMost Israeli officials plus this guy are fully aware about what you are saying. Their agenda is not to inform. They are not innocent in false accusations. Natenyahu has many times in an interview said that Israel needs to attack Iran preemptively and if 100,000 Iranian people die, that's just collateral damage for the safety of Israel!! as we say in Persian "Bilaakh".
With the mind set as such, you want to talk sense to these guys?
Let them talk, blah blah blah, thats all you can ever hear from an Israeli official. That's why most Israelis inside Israel are sick and tired of these Jewish fanatics who actually are running the country being the minority. Israelis at some point in time will get rid of all these dimwits, at least that's what I hope for.
Some thoughts for our Israeli friends
by Hooman H (not verified) on Sat Mar 01, 2008 11:57 PM PSTFirst off, I want to stress that I am in complete agreement of a homeland for the Jews. They have endured thousands of years of persecution and deserve a little plot of land to call home. And I think it’s great that we have Israeli’s making comments on an Iranian website. It shows that they are interested in communicating with us, and are interested in seeing what ordinary Iranians think.
If our Israeli friends are listening, then I humbly offer the following thoughts. I hope that in a small way this will help. I suggest that our Israeli friends stop thinking of Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. Think of it from Iran’s point of view. Numerically, geographically and from a natural resources perspective, Iran is in the perfect position to be the regional hegemon. It is precisely for these same reasons that Iran has been the natural heavyweight in the region for thousands of years. Acquiring nuclear weapons would negate these attributes as it would force smaller countries in the region to also acquire these weapons. Why would Iran want to be on equal footing with countries like Kuwait, Qatar, UAE or even Saudi Arabia? I find it interesting that the two biggest countries in the region (Iran and Egypt) have been calling for a nuclear free middle east for years. And it is equally interesting that the Shah had the option to go nuclear if he wanted to, but he didn’t.
Keeping the above point in mind, it is also important to remember that Iran has a tragic history of invasion by outsiders. Iran will not create the bomb, but will put itself in a position where it can create the bomb quickly if need be. I know that after the holocaust, there are many Jews that like to say “never again”. But know that after enduring many nights of Saddam’s SCUD attacks and fearing chemical warfare unleashed on its civilian population, there are many Iranians that also like to say “never again”.
Fear-mongering against Iran has a single outcome: it puts Iran’s eye firmly upon the source. Iran will put pressure on Israel as a result, but it will not preemptively attack Israel with nuclear weapons. Iran recognizes that such a move would be quickly countered, and Iran will be turned into glass. With all due respect, the little piece of desert that Israel occupies is not worth the destruction of 7000+ year old civilization. As a people, Iranians would not have been around for such a long time had we been prone to such obvious and costly miscalculations.
Now, if our Israeli friends already recognize the above and truly do not see Iran as an existential threat, then there must be other factors in play. The logical motivation, then, is an attempt by Israel to get the international community to destroy what Israel sees as a rival to regional supremacy. I hope that is not the Israeli agenda because Iran and Israel have a lot to offer each other.
There are venomous tirades coming out of Iran against Israel that are reprehensible. The only way out of this mess is for a rapprochement between Iran and the United States. Israel should in fact encourage this. Once Iran and the United States are on friendly terms, from a diplomatic perspective, it becomes a lot easier for Iran, Israel, the Arabs and the international community to work out a peace plan for Israel. Keeping Iran out in the cold will not motivate it to stop funding Hizbullah and Hamas.
Ephraim Asculai
by Ahmadinejad (not verified) on Sat Mar 01, 2008 06:01 AM PSTBOO. lol
I think Jamaleto got this one right to the point
by Bavafa on Sat Mar 01, 2008 05:52 AM PSTMehrdad
stop blaming Iranians (to farhad chAkhan)
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Fri Feb 29, 2008 08:04 PM PSTKashani claims "This ... regime was established on creating instability".
Farhad chAkhan, it is your neocon/AIPAC friends who created the ongoing instability in Iraq and It was your friends during Reagan era along with Saudis and Pakistanis who created the Talibans and the other ongoing instability. Stop blaming Iranians.
Dear Ephraim
by Daryush on Fri Feb 29, 2008 07:08 PM PSTMay I call you Ephy for short? Just wanted to drop a note and say that you Zionists are soooo cute.
Israeli Agent here now? hamino kam daashteem
by Ruzbeh (not verified) on Fri Feb 29, 2008 06:57 PM PSTlol, that's what we were missing, a zionist pig to teach us about the eeghaniyan aktivity (Iranian activity). lol
Once Natenyahu eats shit on Israeli TV
by Jamaleto (not verified) on Fri Feb 29, 2008 06:52 PM PSTThen Iran will stop its peaceful Nuclear activity. The fucking Zionist pig has balls to come here and tell Iranians what to do. Go fix your shit hole first ass hole.
Ahmadinejad hasn't killed anyone, how many people has your regime killed? don't give me the full figure, just this year alone. Ass hole.
What would a Islamic Republic Rep from the same caliber say about Zionist shit hole? Those Iranians who agree with this guy are Vatan Forush e kha en. Look at the ass hole's title:
Ephraim Asculai worked at the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) for over 40 years, mainly on issues of nuclear and environmental safety. He is a Senior Research Fellow at The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel aviv -- an independent academic institute that studies key issues relating to Israel's national security and Middle East affairs.
Iranwantstrouble, exactly
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Fri Feb 29, 2008 03:35 PM PSTIranwantstrouble, exactly said. This fascist regime was established on creating instability, and has survived and thrived on creating instability. Without troublemaking, this regime wouldn’t last a single day. It took Iran through the longest war of the 20th century, has caused the death, imprisonment and fleeing of millions of our citizens, has been the center of instability in the world, has been the center of inspiration and support of Islamic fundamentalism, and by the last, has created and initiated a horrifying clash of civilization between east and west. Its citizens hate it (except some Iranians on this website!!), its neighbor count the days for it to extinguish, the rest of the world, unfortunately a little too late, has woken up to the extremely horrible danger the regime represents starting by the United States, and the rest of the world is following. (France by the election of Sarcozy, and surely others little by little).