Boom & bust

President Bush's economic mirage faces the real test of markets


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Boom & bust
by Mehrdad Emadi
20-Jan-2008
 

The new economic stimuli of President Bush is not likely to produce the promised effects in terms of preventing the further slowing down of economic growth and negative structural adjustment in the U.S. economy. Though reduced growth is a given, we may even see negative growth in the next two years in the U.S. economy and greater falls in the long term value of the dollar.

The reasons for this inefficacy are;

(i) The magnitude of the increased spending which is based on a tax rebate and tax exemption of $140-150 billion which is about one percent of the U.S. GDP. In real terms, based on the figures from a similar package enacted after the 2001 recession, between one- and two-thirds of this amount will be translated into consumer spending. The short fall in the private housing market and the fall in durable consumer goods are estimated to be in excess of three hundred and fifty billion dollars. The demand-side effect of the proposed package will be too small to stimulate consumer spending in these sectors and generate enough momentum to fight off recessionary pulls,

(ii) The present package is based on assumptions similar to those used to develop the 2001 and 2003 stimuli packages which were designed to cope with the deflationary effects of the mini bursts in the stock market bubble. The present falls in consumer spending and investment demand are caused by the burst in the housing market bubble which is fundamentally different.

The property market boom was the brain child of Alan Greenspan, the former president of the Federal Reserve who after the 2001 recession and the pursuant reluctance of equity investors to resume their engagement in the U.S. stock market decided to reverse the negative effects of the burst in the stock prices through the easing of the money supply and de-regulation in lending in the private property market. This refocus of the credit policy in the banking on the lower end of the market was intended to create a new asset-based growth in household spending in the U.S. economy which was fundamentally debt-driven.

The boom in the property prices in the U.S. between 2001 and 2006 helped to raise consumer spending which was not supported by the raise in their earnings. During the same period there was unprecedented growth in the national debt fuelled by the government deficits, short falls in the external trade accounts and rising household borrowings.

The rise in household spending was mainly fuelled through increased borrowing against the higher property prices which enabled owners to increase their debt even though their income did not always warrant the issuance of the new loans and yet on paper and on the balance sheets of lenders their net asset value showed a positive balance and a growth in the new value because of the bubble in the property prices.

What was ignored during the 'golden' years of Greenspan era was that a significant part of the inflationary pressure in private dwelling market was fuelled by demand from first-time buyers who had credit ranking of poor to very poor (sub 700 points) and yet they were able to obtain mortgages. At the margin, between one-quarter and one-third of these new buyers would have been refused mortgages on the basis of their income stability and their net earnings in the pre-2001 financial regime. It was the gradual but the rising default of this group of borrowers that instigated the first wave of sell-offs of the sub-prime mortgages by the U.S. banks to their European and Asian banks and financial institutions who had less information about the true value of the existing mortgages and the spread of risk in this segment.

American banks diversified their risk exposure in the U.S. sub-prime market through reselling of their bad (un-retrievable) mortgages to the rest of the world which deepened the down side of dollar-denominated involvement for foreign investors.

For all these reasons and the fact that the mortgage market is primarily a debtors/borrowers market (vis-à-vis the stock market which is an investors/savers market) in which individuals have little liquidity to absorb rising insolvencies we should expect a further spread of the decline in the property prices given the fact that we still do not know the true value of sub-prime mortgages which could be in excess of one trillion us dollars,

(iii) Existing statistical correlation between previous bursts in property prices and general economic activity suggest a more pronounced and lasting association between booms and busts and price falls than those detected in the stock market prices and bursts in the bubbles in the equity markets,

(iv) And finally, all major banking crises in the postwar period coincide with collapses in property prices. The volatility in the banking liquidity and the hardship that was caused to households in the late 1980s in England, Switzerland and Japan (albeit was the commercial property prices) indicate a period of three to five years during which we may see even negative growth and painful structural adjustments which may contribute to the further transference of the economic gravity from West to East (China, India, and their neighbouring economies).

The real legacy of the Bush's presidency at the end may not be the failure of its policies in Iraq and Afghanistan or the War on Terror but the fall of the U.S. dollar from being the world supreme currency to one of the major currencies.

Given the deficit-ridden history of the U.S. economy this change may not be such a bad outcome if it encourages the U.S. to subjugate its economy to the same budgetary disciplines that it has advocated other countries directly or indirectly (through the IMF and the World Bank) to embrace.

After all living on 'borrowed money' for nations may be as dangerous as living on borrowed time has been for politicians. Economics governs the weak and the strong, not always in equal measures but its rule is inescapable.


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David ET

then dont make me yawn :D

by David ET on


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Keep up the good yawn!

by Naazokbin (not verified) on

Mr. David ET,

It seems old habits are hard to break, yawning through high school years and yawning now. That's exactly what I meant by, "obstinant ignorance."

Keep up the good yawn while trying to save the world!


David ET

aka nazokbin's originalty

by David ET on

There was NOTHING in what you wrote except a copy/paste of what some of us have read in high school looong time ago and a PERSONAL ATTACK which gained this well deserved response from me:

YAWN


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"The New WORLD ORDER!"

by Naazokbin (not verified) on

Mr. David ET,

There is absolutely nothing NEW about the current WORLD ORDER. Your article proves how little you know about the historical nature of capitalism.

Before I draw your attention to Carl Marx's brilliant dissection of the revolutionary character of capitalism or as it used to be called, the bourgeoisie, I would like you to read this quote:

"In strict confidence, I should welcome almost any war, for I think this country needs one." Theodore Roosevelt, 1897.

Now, here's what Carl Marx said in his Manifesto, 160 years ago:

"The bourgeoisie, wherever it has got the upper hand, has put an end to allfeudal, patriarchal, idyllic relations. It has pitilessly torn asunder the motley feudal ties that bound man to his "natural superiors", and has left remaining no other nexus between man and man than naked self-interest, than callous "cash payment".

It has drowned the most heavenly ecstasies of religious fervour, of chivalrous enthusiasm, of philistine sentimentalism, in the icy water of egotistical calculation.

It has resolved personal worth into exchange value, and in place of the numberless indefeasible chartered freedoms, has set up that single, unconscionable freedom - Free Trade.

In one word, for exploitation, veiled by religious and political illusions, it has substituted naked, shameless, direct, brutal exploitation.

The bourgeoisie has stripped of its halo every occupation hitherto honoured and looked up to with reverent awe. It has converted the physician, the lawyer, the priest, the poet, the man of science, into its paid wage labourers.

The bourgeoisie has torn away from the family its sentimental veil, and>has reduced the family relation to a mere money relation.

The bourgeoisie has disclosed how it came to pass that the brutal display of vigour in the Middle Ages, which reactionaries so much admire, found its fitting complement in the most slothful indolence.
It has been the first to show what man's activity can bring about. It has accomplished wonders far surpassing Egyptian pyramids, Roman aqueducts, and Gothic cathedrals; it has conducted expeditions that put in the shade all former Exoduses of nations and crusades.

The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionising the instruments of production, and thereby the relations of production, and with them the whole relations of society. Conservation of the old modes of production in unaltered form, was, on the contrary, the first condition of existence for all earlier industrial classes.

Constant revolutionising of production, uninterrupted disturbance of all social conditions, everlasting>uncertainty and agitation distinguish the bourgeois epoch from all earlier ones. All fixed, fast-frozen relations, with their train of ancient and venerable prejudices and opinions, are swept away, all new-formed ones become antiquated before they can ossify. All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind.

The need of a constantly expanding market for its products chases the bourgeoisie over the entire surface of the globe. It must nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connexions everywhere.

The bourgeoisie has through its exploitation of the world market given a cosmopolitan character to production and consumption in every country. To>the great chagrin of Reactionists, it has drawn from under the feet of industry the national ground on which it stood.

All old-established national industries have been destroyed or are daily being destroyed. They are dislodged by new industries, whose introduction becomes a life and death question for all civilised nations, by industries that no longer work up indigenous raw material, but raw material drawn from the remotest zones; industries whose products are consumed, not only at home, but in every quarter of the globe.

In place of the old wants, satisfied by the production of the country, we find new wants, requiring for their satisfaction the products of distant lands and climes. In place of the old local and national seclusion and self-sufficiency, we have intercourse in every direction, universal inter-dependence of nations.

And as in material, so also in intellectual production. The intellectual creations of individual nations become common property. National one-sidedness and narrow-mindedness become more and more impossible, and from the numerous national and local literatures, there arises a world literature.

The bourgeoisie, by the rapid improvement of all instruments of production, by the immensely facilitated means of communication, draws all, even the most barbarian, nations into civilisation. The cheap prices of commodities are the heavy artillery with which it batters down all Chinese walls, with which it forces the barbarians' intensely obstinate hatred of foreigners to capitulate. It compels all nations, on pain of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production; it compels them to introduce what it calls civilisation into their midst, i.e., to become bourgeois themselves.In one word, it creates a world after its own image.

The bourgeoisie has subjected the country to the rule of the towns. It has created enormous cities, has greatly increased the urban population as compared with the rural, and has thus rescued a considerable part of the population from the idiocy of rural life. Just as it has made the country dependent on the towns, so it has made barbarian and semi-barbarian countries dependent on the civilised ones, nations of peasants on nations of>bourgeois, the East on the West.

The bourgeoisie keeps more and more doing away with the scattered state of the population, of the means of production, and of property. It has agglomerated population, centralised the means of production, and has concentrated property in a few hands. The necessary consequence of this was political centralisation. Independent, or but loosely connected provinces, with separate interests, laws, governments, and systems of taxation, became lumped together into one nation, with one government, one code of laws, one national class-interest, one frontier, and one customs-tariff.

The bourgeoisie, during its rule of scarce one hundred years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together. Subjection of Nature's forces to man, machinery, application of chemistry to industry and agriculture, steam-navigation, railways, electric telegraphs, clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalisation of rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground - what earlier century had even a presentiment that such productive forces slumbered in the lap of social labour?

We see then: the means of production and of exchange, on whose foundation the bourgeoisie built itself up, were generated in feudal society. At a certain stage in the development of these means of production and of exchange, the conditions under which feudal society produced and exchanged, the feudal organisation of agriculture and manufacturing industry, in one word, the feudal relations of property became no longer compatible with the already developed productive forces; they became so many fetters. They had to be burst asunder; they were burst asunder. Into their place stepped free competition, accompanied by a social and political constitution adapted in it, and the economic and political sway of the bourgeois class.

A similar movement is going on before our own eyes. Modern bourgeois society, with its relations of production, of exchange and of property, a society that has conjured up such gigantic means of production and of exchange, is like the sorcerer who is no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells.

For many a decade past the history of industry and commerce is but the history of the revolt of modern productive forces against modern conditions of production, against the property relations that are the conditions for the existence of the bourgeois and of its rule. It is enough to mention the commercial crises that by their periodical return put the existence of the entire bourgeois society on its trial, each time more threateningly.

In these crises, a great part not only of the existing products, but also of the previously created productive forces, are periodically destroyed. In these crises, there breaks out an epidemic that, in all earlier epochs, would have seemed an absurdity - the epidemic of over-production.

Society suddenly finds itself put back into a state of momentary barbarism; it appears as if a famine, a universal war of devastation, had cut off the supply of every means of subsistence; industry and commerce seem to be destroyed; and why? Because there is too much civilisation, too much means of subsistence, too much industry, too much commerce. The productive forces at the disposal of society no longer tend to further the development of the conditions of bourgeois property; on the contrary, they have become too powerful for these conditions, by which they are fettered, and so soon as they overcome these fetters, they bring disorder into the whole of bourgeois society, endanger the existence of bourgeois property.

The conditions of bourgeois society are too narrow to comprise the wealth created by them.
And how does the bourgeoisie get over these crises?
On the one hand by enforced destruction of a mass of productive forces; on the other, by the conquest of new markets, and by the more thorough exploitation of the old ones. That is to say, by paving the way for more extensive and more destructive crises, and by diminishing the means whereby crises are prevented."

The rest is the world history which you may have read or heard about!

So David,

The U.S. "imperialism" was not discovered by a bunch of disillusioned or ignorant Iranians who want to tell the rest of us that all the ills of the world are rooted in the policies of the current administratation while enjoying the fruits of capitalism or "modern" world order in the Western world or back in Iran.

There's nothing wrong with enjoying one's life, it is the obstinate ignorance among such Iranians that is repugnant.


Food for Thought

Clear Article & Intelligent response

by Food for Thought on

David's got a very good handle on the situation. Booms and busts are created by the elite to claw back money from the poor and middle classes when prices fall. The money-men led by the Rothschilds have cornered the market on this for generations going back to British-French wars of Napoleonic times, and now his descendents and their elite cronies have taken over the money supply in the US through the fed which they control...

And as David says, thier tool now is the mainstream media which they also control, and through it the thinking and the politics of the nation...

You might be interested in these links:

Paul Grignon's 47-minute animated presentation of "Money as Debt" tells in very simple and effective graphic terms what money is and how it is being created. It is an entertaining way to get the message out. Encourage the widest distribution and use by all groups concerned with the present unsustainable monetary system in the United States.

Very interesting in today's financial sub-prime debt crisis...

who will foot the bill?

47 minutes: //video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&hl=en

or a five minute intro in to the broader points touched on by David:

//video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4934150325840063361

which can point you in the right direction...

Enjoy

F4T


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Great article

by Bored iranian dude (not verified) on

But I agree with David ET's response. Bush trip to the middle east had nothing to do with the peace process, Iran, oil or arab security, it had everything to do that the arabs invested back more into US institutions (especially banking) as they get more revenue from the sales. The journalist Greg Palast had a nice article on this, cant remember the title, but the point is that the cleptocratic sheiks in these arab countries are buying more and more into the US as we speak.


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Actions of "W" (the Idiot) does not need analysis

by Asghar Beshalvar (not verified) on

A US president does not have to know everything to run the country successfully. No one can. However, the US president should have the mental capacity and IQ/intelligence to be able to modulate enormous amount of information from very intelligent advisors to be able to make the right decisions. As we have all figured it out by now after 7 years, the "W" guy with an IQ of about 70 has no such intelligence capacity. The country is in a mess; financially, economically, and in all respects including foriegn policy because of that. This does not need deep analysis. An America that once was an icon for the rest of the world is now becoming nothing more than a third world (and going down further). Why waste time with a "deep analysis" of the cause and effect?


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US$ & Economy

by Not so (not verified) on

I tend t accept David's view as the real cause, and Mehrdad's view as how it happened. You see these two are ompletely different. Noting happens ulness you aim for it, and it would not happend uless you plan it correctly. Of course those (Mehradad's ) are the causes, but it didn't need to happend, it hapended cause they wanted it to happen. and that is what David is saying. So it is not impotant how it happened, but why it happend, and the answer to "WHY" is cause they planned and wanted it to happen. David i sright. So is Mehrdad. But Mehrdad is considered simple, and David sophisticated.


David ET

yes but not exactly !

by David ET on

Good summary however I think this analysis is simply a summary of the superficial feed of the mainstream media and wall street while there is much deeper geopolitical reason for the current financial environment which has started long before Bush took power.

The policies of Federal Reserve Board as a governing financial power of the US and the WORLD (along with few other central banks) , baseless printing of dollar, the formation of European Union, export of US jobs abroad, End of Soviet Empire, Chinese elites entrance to the global capitalistic market , NAFTA and many other such globalizations are the results of a major shift of dominance of FINANCIAL ELITE from US and Western Europe to a borderless global elite who also now include the Oil rich sheiks of middle east, Russians, Chinese and other billionaires who no longer see their interest in the nationalistic pursue of capital and in competition with one another but as one global elite who JOINTLY control the financial resources.

In this path US no longer need to have to a financial hegemony but the elite of the world will. The red white and blue has mixed with the green and yellow and others and an American citizen is no longer more important than a Chinese or Arab as far as they are concerned. Wherever there is a more opportunity to PROFIT is where THEY will be and already are. Obviously the greed will create frictions among the elite too but no longer at the cost of jeopordising their own wealth. After all they enjoy each others company in yachts and glamerous private gatherings more than the company of the THE PEOPLE. The political and religious leaders have always been the tools of the few to control the masses and they will continue to serve their purpose or forced to be changed as needed! The Media is the new tool of the new world order and not tanks.

The matured Western economies with legal, labor and environmental restrictions no longer provide the same opportunities for the rich elite as the newly formed middle classes of South America, Asia and Middle East and in this process we will ontinue to see a shift of economic power to those areas where the investor capital will also follow.

Therefore the current economic problems were not a surprise WHATSOEVER to many but an intended outcome of creating more stable and fertile worldwide ground for new horizons for creation of wealth for a very limited few who control the financial markets of our planet and therefore in charge of the new world order.

The concept of one world government has already been formed financially and the political process is in the works.

This is not a conspiracy theory but a factual observation based on what has already happened!. The drop in value of real estate and equities or the recession will only hurt the middle class but it does not effect the elite and actually provide opportunity for those who have unlimited cash reserve to acquire the assets of the middle class at substantial discounts, not to mention that Americans have been rubbed of the value of their assets simply by intentional Fed sponsored drop of dollar.The current US deficit and payment of interest by the tax payer to the elite will also serve as this shift of wealth from the middle class to the few.

The next round of this shift will be served by increased in taxes as well as possible bail outs to be formulated by the soon to be democrat US president. 

What one hears on CNBC (owned by GE) and the elite and corporate controlled major media may only be what they want us to hear and believe. The new wall street journal owned by newscorp, the soon to be centralized stock market with mergers of the exchanges (eg: NYSE/AMEX ) and the formation of International Equity and Hedge Funds, The congressional approvals of the homeland security and wiretapping etc etc are all playing a role in the centralization of power at the cost of loss of individual economic and political liberties.

Yes America was beautiful!


Midwesty

Thanks Mehrdad,

by Midwesty on

Very precise and insightful article. The depreciation of the dollar’s value might have some positive effects for the US economy such as increasing US exports which could translate to decrease in the net export value and reviving the manufacturing sector. Just something I remembered from my college years. There is conspiracy theory also that says this way US is trying to bring the Chinese economy to its knees since a depreciated dollar can hurt China more than the US.

Regards,