POSSIBILITY

No way Jose

With the way the US economy is,the chances of USA or Israel attacking Iran is Zero to none.

MRX1

So You think it will be a 48-72 hour war? Granada and Panama took longer than that.

A War of Self-Destruction

Posted on Aug 4, 2008

AP photo / Hasan Sarbakhshian
Iranian protesters burn a U.S flag in a demonstration marking the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

By Chris Hedges

An attack on Iran, which Israeli and Bush administration officials appear set to carry out if Iranian uranium enrichment is not halted, would ignite a regional war in the Middle East and lead to economic collapse and political upheaval in the United States.

“In short and simple terms, we would be plunged into a depression that would make the Great Depression of the 1930s in which I spent my childhood look like boom times,” said William R. Polk, former professor of history at the University of Chicago and a member of the Policy Planning Council under President Kennedy. “Industries would fail, banks would collapse, government revenues would dry up, universities would have to close, health care, even as limited as it now is for roughly 75 million Americans, would virtually cease. In short, something like [what] the South suffered at the end of the Civil War would plague the country.”

The passage of vast amounts of oil and liquefied gas through the Persian Gulf would be disrupted. Iranian attacks, carried out with rocket- and bomb-equipped speedboats and submarines, would be deadly and effective. A classified Pentagon war game in 2002 simulated these swarming attacks by Iranian speedboats packed with explosives in the gulf; the Navy lost 16 major warships, according to a report in The New York Times. Iranian oil, which makes up 8 percent of the world’s energy supply, would instantly be taken off the market. And oil would jump to over $500 a barrel and perhaps, as the conflict dragged on, to over $750 a barrel. Our petroleum-based economy would come to a halt.

Israel would be hit by Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missiles. Hezbollah, with its new store of Iranian-supplied rockets that allegedly can reach any part of Israel, including Israel’s nuclear plant at Dimona, would enter the conflict. Israel would lash back. Terrorist attacks on U.S. targets would become frequent. U.S. casualties in Iraq would mount as the Iranians rained missiles down on U.S. bases and installations, including our imperial city, the Green Zone. Chaos and mayhem would grip the Middle East. The world financial markets would go haywire.

“Even at today’s price, as you know, 14 airlines have gone out of business while others are hovering on the brink of bankruptcy and most have curtailed service and laid off personnel,” said Polk, one of the country’s leading scholars of the Arab world. “At double or triple today’s price, none could fly unless nationalized. A whole range of other industries would be quickly drawn into the quicksand. Ironically, war would push America into a form of socialist economy.”

The U.S. economy is already tottering. We recently witnessed the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, and there are fears that as many as 150 banks could fail over the next 12 to 18 months. There will be 6.5 million foreclosures over the next five years, according to Wall Street analysts. The government is furiously pumping billions of taxpayer dollars into private corporations to keep them afloat. The Congress bailed out the shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These bizarre “government-sponsored enterprises” own or guarantee half the mortgages in the country—some $5.1 trillion. The Federal Reserve evoked rarely used emergency powers to put billions of taxpayer dollars at risk to stop the meltdown of a non-bank, Bear Stearns, which it never regulated. More than $300 billion has been written down so far. Losses, by the time we are done, could exceed $1 trillion.

The already staggering debt generated by the war in Iraq would mushroom with an attack on Iran. Fighting wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran, we would soon be struggling to pay off a debt of at least two or three times the present amount. This is a weight the U.S. economy cannot bear, especially as the dollar tumbles against the euro and other major currencies. The government has borrowed abroad roughly a quarter of our annual national income in order to pay for the Iraq debacle. We have been told for the first time by a sovereign fund (South Korean, one of the world’s largest) that it will no longer buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz estimates that the final cost of the war in Iraq, once all the hidden costs are added up, could be as high as $7 trillion.

“Financial capitalism is crashing,” wrote independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader. “So the lights are on late in Washington’s Federal Reserve, SEC and Treasury Department trying to figure out how socialism (your tax dollars and credits) can once again bail out these big-time gamblers with our money. ... Reckless, self-enriching capitalists get on your knees and thank the rescuing Washington socialists, for without them, you would surely be in chains.”

A war with Iran would also have grave political consequences. The specter of millions of Americans driven out of their homes, no longer able to afford basic necessities, out of work and enraged, would, as it has throughout history, embolden messianic right-wing and proto-fascist movements. Given the potential for social unrest, basic freedoms would be curtailed and in some cases abolished in the name of order and national security. The radical fringes of the Christian right could rise up with a vengeance. They would happily ally themselves with an assortment of oddballs, lunatics and corporate behemoths from Blackwater mercenaries to frightened capitalists at Halliburton. It was economic collapse, along with a climate of fear and instability, that was used to build the fascist and communist movements that plagued Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union during the last century. These same forces led to the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. We are not immune to these distortions.

But maybe those who advocate a war with Iran know all this. Maybe this is what they want. Maybe they understand that a war with Iran would finally kill off our weakened and anemic democracy. Maybe they see this as the dawn of a new era, an era when the last impediments to a global totalitarian capitalism can finally be removed and we can all be ground under the corporate jack boot, from Shanghai to New Delhi to Ohio. There are huge corporations that make obscene profits from human misery. They run our health care industry. They run our oil and gas companies. They run our bloated weapons industry. They run Wall Street and the major investment firms. They run our manufacturing firms. They also, ominously, run our government.

Iran is Germany???

Hey Fellas

Iran is Germany. It is bullshit! IRANIANS are the most educated people in this country from doctors, engineers, and NASA Space Station. Iran never mistreated her citizens like Hitler. Hitler was half Jewish/Half Catholic who had was trained by British to crackdown Communism. If a war breaks out with Iran, it would repeat the same scenerio like Iraq because we don't know where Al-Qaeda is running around these days. It would be like Hostage Crisis days. JAPAN was vicious! They dropped bombs on Pearl Harbor. World War 2 was different. This is a different world. We are going to war with three other nations next: Syria, Venezuela, and North Korea. Yes! Henry Kissinger wants to use German style invasion to disarm them. You have to remember somthing, what happened to Hitler's scientists? They fled into this country and developed our nuclear technology. I advice you to read "The Rise of Fourth Reich" by Jim Marres. The ex-Germans want to turn this country into a police state. IRAN is not the hottest topic but these are just politics and those Iranian nuclear scientists might migrate into the West. hahaha! You never know? AMERICAN economy is in critical situation right now. Let's worry about that.

What about the Russkies?

I admit that I am no political expert or as smart as some of the other people here but can someone please explain to the rest of us what role does Russia plays in all this? After all isn't it the Russkies that are building, running and supplying the fuel for the Iranian nuclear plants? Didn't the Russians just last month invade Georgia? How has anything then changed in the world since the cold war ended? Don't the Russians have the largest conventional,nuclear, biological and chemical weapons after the Americans? Don't the Russians say that they will not support any more sanctions against Iran? Aren't the Russians going to supply Iran with advanced anti aircraft missiles? Isn't it the Russians that have helped develop Iran's missile program?
If all this is true then shouldn't it be the Russians living in the US that should also be put in camps if there is a war? Can you say World War III?

The threat was there...I heard it too..

I had a newborn and we were eating dinner at the country club  when a man...(German descent and drunk...) stood up and said that they should imprison Iranians and their families just like they did the Japenese.  His wife was horrified that he did this.  I went to the bathroom to cyr and the female manager and three female witnesses came in to make sure that I was ok.  When the man's wife left she smiled at me in a kind way. 

I know for a fact that Iranians will suffer here if there is war. 

I also know that the British dupped the US goverment in 1953 and they have sent false concepts to us on other occasions.  I actually laugh when the British claim to be better than us.  You have a lot of global blood on your hands even if my ancestors came from your island. 

I'm not an Iranian apologist either.  How many Iranian citizens has the government slaughtered to solidify their hold?  Over one million would be my guess. Iran is exporting the revolution at the cost of lives in other countries.  How can Iranians ignore this?

 Just read Iranian.com to see the hate that  some Iranians have for the West.  Maybe, it's propangada from the regime, but you can read their "blogs" here.  On every one of these articles, there are those who voice their hatred of America....even if they have chosen to live here.  What's up with that?  Who lives with people that they hate? People with agenda....that's my belief. 

I'm glad that I read articles here.  It has helped me understand people better.  This planet is a mess.

Dear Londoner, hate to break it to ya, but yall have no choice.

I appreciate the fact that some Brits participated in some of the biggest anti-war demonstration in Europe's modern history, but that's not the point. Britain's sole role in the 21st. century is to be the docile lapdog for the US as a marketer and salesman for its wars. Your country has been delegated the task of "sexing up" dossiers and conjuring up sinister plans to attack and kill mainly Muslims-with-oil, as England has been doing for centuries. To that end all British government have consistently cultivated and sponsored all sorts of Islamic terrorists to use them to kill or neutralize the nationalists and democratic forces in Muslim countries by giving such elements sanctuary in England. Not a single day goes by without a made-in-Britain "imam" issuing fatwas to kill or maim other people who are oppose some Aglo-supported despot in the Middle East and Africa. London is has become the favorite parking place for an assortment of Muslim extremists, manly Russian-Jewish oligarchs, gangsters, narco-terrorist money launderers and sex-slave traders. Do all these happen by accident? I sure don't think so. The British government, with or without the British public support, has made it its business to arrange oil wars as well as financing, installing and supporting repressive regimes in the Third World, IRI is but one shiny example of such crimes. What went wrong for Britain after helping to install the Khomeini regime was that he gave you guys the finger after he got what he wanted. I bet you a pint of your favorite ale the British government WILL be serving up whatever the US orders it to help to "sell" the next war with Iran, if it ever happens which I very much doubt. That's what the REAL "politics and culture of the UK" is all about. The Ajax project that helped the CIA to bring the Shah back was entirely put together by the Brits and "sold" to the US administration! Are you still fooling yourself that others "don't understand" the British rotten foreign politics and war mongering "culture"?!!!

rubbish

it's not 1942, it's 2008, so much has changed politicaly, demographicaly, economicaly that even if U.S strikes Iran which will not be full scale war but a 48 to 72 hours series of sorties, every thing will be done so fast that by the time most iranians wake up the oepration is over.

let's face it 99% of Iranian in U.S are primarily middle class, anti IRI and U.S government is well aware of it. Iranians won't be doing any hanky panky.as for that one percent well rest assure FBI will probably be on their asses.
So kurush, relax and have some borbone.

Dear Londoner: then why?

Chera, chera; for our Londoner friend it means: why, why? There is ample evidence that Britain was directly responsible for the installation of Khomeni in Iran. I know that normal English people probably don't know about this. But the results are clear. Why did you do this to us? The Shah was a dictator but he was dying. Why not wait for the next page. Why subject us to this hell? Was the black oild worth red blood? You must put these questions to your leadership. America already removed Carter from Presidency for his naivety. You need to also come to terms with your governments responsibility for its mistakes.

the UK isn't part of this

This current threat of war is a purely bliateral between the US and Iran. Here in the UK we are still p***ed off about being dragged into the Iraq war on the basis of false intelligence from the US and against the wishes of the vast majority. 1 to 1.5 million out of 56 marched against the war and 29% or less supported it. This is in contrast with the US where a majority supported war. The same mistake is not going to happen twice.

Any Americans who think that this back and forth between the US and Iran might result in the involvement of the UK in a war don't understand the politics and culture of the UK. As and EU member state, trade and travel between the UK and Iran is largely free and open. I have met Americans who are even surprised that we Europeans are free to travel there, and free to do trade. Having seen the continual bombardment of anti-Iran propoganda on American television, I have to say that you would never, ever see a prominent politician singing about 'bombing Iran' and continue his career in England. The fact is, we don't have your political right wing madness, it just does not exist and there is not continuous talk of war against Iran in the UK, except in terms of a US attack.

Vote for Obama to avoid a war

Vote for Obama if you want to avoid a war. I want the IRI gone but am not a fan of war. Obama will not get us in a war and if it did happen won't do the camp thing. On the other hand an Obama administration will be more likely to work with the IRI. Personally I doubt they would put us away as most of us are opposed to the IRI. It would be stupid for America to lose our support. We are the best asset against Islamic fundamentalism. But if you are worried then support Obama.

My American wife was so worried "US would put you in a camp..."

That's what she believed during the US embassy take over in Tehran. She was a white American from a major US city and she was more worried than I. She said she heard it a lot in her circles that "Iranians should be moved to camps". It's true. We will feel the pain first In case of a real war between US and Iran. I'm hoping it would not happen. It's a lose lose situation for us.

It's not gonna happen, I hope.

As a student in the US during the hostage crisis I had a constant fear that Iranian students would be rounded up and sent to concentration camps. Senator Hayakawa, who was from Japanese descent even advocated such atrocities but his foolish remarks were swiftly met with resolute opposition and admonishment by the American-Japanese community and other Americans who supported human and civil rights of those who lived here whether they were US citizens or not. I am sure the civil rights of the US citizens who came from Iran are not going to be violated by imprisoning them in concentration camps. But I have no doubt there will be all kinds of surveillance, harassment and interrogations by the authorities in the name of national security. As for the Brits, I know they are capable of all kinds of atrocities without blinking.

No Sunday folly

 To disabuse anyone of his/her ideologically mandated reality, particularly the individuals who in referring to themselves use the plural pronouns, is a folly.   

We've been here before when US hostage crisis hit us

We are living in a new "Time" and new challenges in the United States of America. We Iranian Americans are facing constant bashing by the interest groups and their hired guns in US media and bigots (aka Fred, Zion, etc on this website). And when it comes to racism, we do experience it here as Iranian Americans.

What's going to happen to us when the shit hits the fan and a war is started between Iran and the United States? We are the survivors of US hostage crisis. we know we'll be under more pressure as Iranians and as muslims.

I much prefer, just like our ancestors, to be "patient" when the times are hard. Running on the streets of New York and screeming "Death to Iran" is not going to serve our cause.

Not Quite: Wrong again...

.
.
.
Regretfully Regretful

As long as
Blood runs through
The body of man
Do not believe
His pledge or oath
Even for one bit
Crucify him
And the last drop of blood
Leaves his body for sure
Now this bloodless man
Is somehting that you can put your hand on
To swear you have wintnessed the truth
With no afterward sense of regret

Abol Danesh
Copyright ©2008 Abol Danesh

--Ze gahvaarreh taa Goor Daanesh bejooy---

Now you’ve insulted our intelligence.

Your assumption about IRI as a unified body reaffirms the misconception about their perfection. You’re giving them too much credit; so much that you put them at extremes either at super or sub-human level, depending on the angle you are looking at. (Dehumanization before attack, the first law in the Neocon book)

Perhaps lack of knowledge about IRI and Iranian society leaves you with no option but  to primitively see us in black and white and group us based on, “either you are with us or against us”. (The second law)  

Finally, using the known fear-mongering tactic in which Iranians should act before the buggy man comes out of the bathroom mirror, a cold blooded prescription for any regime change project leading to a very cost-effective budget with an astronomical profit margin. (The third law).

I have one answer for all of these. Have you learned anything from Iraq? (A rhetorical question) 

Cause & effect

Perhaps unsubscribing from the debunked fallacy of existence of a faction other than “fanatic factions of IRI” in the Islamist republic, the self-professed confused ones might untangle themselves to some degree. A healing regiment for the afflicted precludes ignoring the cause and zeroing in on the effect. The only viable solution is for the Iranians to overthrow the Islamist republic before a catastrophic move by others.

I don’t get it Fred.

I don’t get it Fred. Are you compassionately justifying the fact of taking Iranian-Americans hostage for the “crimes of IRI” or ignorantly submitting to the overwhelming weight of reality in the past and the preface of a dark future, as I don’t see anything positive, constructive, and active in your comment? Let me know if there is a third dimension to your thoughts other than sitting on our asses?

It is well understood by mass Iranian diaspora that passiveness from our side has well served the fanatic factions of IRI. However what we all Iranians in exile have in common is the state of our confusion. We have witnessed how the real voices of freedom and respect for human rights has been lost in the havoc of the loudspeakers which propagating the phony emergence of an immanent war, leaving us in dilemma deciding which camp we should belong to, war against IRI or supporting the IRI? And of course your option.

No! There is a third option (forth if we include yours). We all can agree, despite our deep differences to say loudly, ‘No to war!’ while we shout even louder ‘No to crimes against humanity in any shape and form in any country!’ The author of this article has nothing else to say but to remind us serving human rights purposes serves not only the whole body of humanity but also individual rights including that of every single of us with measurable scales that can effect our very existence very quickly.

As the most constructive and beneficial ethnic minorities, it is not too much to ask our respected governments to respect our basic rights and to respect others.

Cockeyed mindset

You say: “We know that unless some drastic political shift, in America, does not occur in near future, the Iranian expatriates may well become a pawn in the ensuing events.” In another word the fear mongering logic dictates that the Islamist republic has no part in this “ensuing event”.

 Could it possibly be the Islamist republic’s state policy of international terrorism and bankrolling on top of its illegal nuke on top of its ICBM on top of its murdering, lashing, stoning, eye gouging of Iranians on top of …, might, just might have something to do with it? Or the priorities of the dogmatic mindset dictate otherwise?