Happy hardliners in Tehran?

New U.S. President and the Middle East


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Happy hardliners in Tehran?
by Patrick Clawson & David Makovsky
10-Nov-2008
 

On November 6, Robert Satloff, Patrick Clawson and David Makovsky addressed a Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute. Dr. Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute, Dr. Clawson is the Institute's deputy director for research, and Mr. Makovsky is the director of the Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Clawson and Mr. Makovsky's remarks; Dr. Satloff's will be released separately.

Patrick Clawson
President-elect Obama has stated that the large-scale U.S. presence in Iraq has allowed Iraqis to avoid dealing with their problems and building the appropriate capacity to cope with the issues facing their country. He has also worried that this presence feeds nationalist resentments, thereby exacerbating the situation.

When Obama made this argument with respect to the 2007 U.S. military "surge," circumstances were different, and indeed the surge proved necessary to achieve security. His position, however, regarding the current problem of slow political progress may well be on target. Iraqi politicians have taken far too long to make important decisions about the budget, provincial elections, the oil law, the future of Kirkuk, and the status-of-forces agreement with the United States. Perhaps if Washington wielded both the "stick" of rapid withdrawal and the "carrot" of sustained commitment, progress will quicken. Obama repeatedly has said that if Iraqis do more to resolve their problems, the United States will do more to help them.

The Obama strategy offers the hope that Iraqi politicians will be motivated to deal with their country's problems, especially since there is a strong common will across Iraq's political spectrum to solve these issues. The large risk of this policy, however, is that Iraq could slip back into instability and that Iran could end up dominating Iraq.

Iran, on the other hand, presents a different set of challenges. A major U.S. effort to engage Iran is inevitable, primarily because the United States must reverse the common perception -- in the United States and around the world -- that Washington is at fault for the lack of progress on the Iran front. The United States is going to have to make a major effort to show that it is prepared to walk the extra mile for compromise. Washington has not been able to secure support for greater sticks against Iran; it can only gather such support if it is seen as also offering carrots. In other words, on the Iran nuclear issue, carrots are the only way to get to sticks.

Engaging Iran will be a challenge for several reasons. U.S. diplomatic efforts could backfire and feed deep-seated suspicions, as they did in 1979 when radicals seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran days after a meeting between the U.S. national security advisor and Iran's prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister. The radicals thought the meeting was a plot to undermine the revolution, and the resulting chaos severely damaged U.S.-Iranian relations. Even today, suspicion of the U.S. motives for seeking engagement persists. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has indicated that the greatest threat to Iran is a "velvet revolution" that will stem from foreign powers working with Iranian civil society.

U.S. diplomatic overtures could encourage Iranian hardliners who might argue that their tough stance had forced Washington to make concessions. European diplomats already worry that Western offers to Iran improve every six months, thus encouraging Iran to remain uncompromising. U.S. willingness to negotiate with Iran's hardliners could seriously undermine Iranian reformers, by suggesting that Washington will work with the hardliners in a way it did not with the reformers.

Attempts to engage Iran may also promote grave doubts among U.S. friends and allies. European diplomats, especially those in France, worry that the United States is acting as a lone cowboy, preempting what had been a European-led negotiating process. Gulf monarchies may think Washington is making a strategic deal with Tehran at their expense, leading them to either seek accommodation with Iran or develop their own weapons capabilities. For Israel, such efforts may signal America's willingness to live with a nuclear Iran, in the hope that Tehran can be deterred and contained.

David Makovsky
When it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, a strategy of "engagement without illusions" will most likely drive the Obama administration. Prospects of diplomatic success are worth trying, but at a minimum, engagement would attempt to reverse the slide toward radicalization.

Since Obama will be preoccupied with a recession at home and two wars abroad, he does not have to be personally involved in every detail of Arab-Israeli negotiations. He could delegate that responsibility and time his interventions to maximum effect. The Obama adminstration's engagement will come under circumstances less auspicious than those at the end of the Clinton administration, particularly Hamas's ascendancy in Gaza and the emergence of the rocket threat to Israel.

The new administration should try to salvage the two-state solution, or at least avert a Hamas takeover of the West Bank. The good news is that Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have converging interests in the West Bank, since both parties fear the rise of Hamas. Moreover, both seem to believe the way to stave off this threat is by delaying the Israeli army's withdrawal, bolstering the training of Palestinian security forces in Jordan, increasing security cooperation, and building Palestinian civil institutions. This approach has paid at least some dividends: a million tourists have visited Bethlehem this year, unemployment rates have fallen to the lowest levels in eight years, acts of terrorism have decreased, and polls suggest that Gazans think the PA government in the West Bank is more effective than Hamas in Gaza.

The lack of clarity on settlements, however, threatens the stability of the West Bank and the strength of Palestinian institutions. Amid confusion about ongoing Israeli settlement activity, it is difficult for the PA to tell it citizens to be patient in their quest for sovereignty. Fortunately, the territorial differences between Israel and the PA on the final disposition of the West Bank are miniscule, and both agree to the concept of land swaps.

A joint delineation of West Bank land would diminish the mistrust between the two sides, answering once and for all the question of whether Israel is building on territory that will be Israeli or Palestinian. Such a delineation would show Palestinians that moderates can produce results and would give the PA time to strengthen its institutions as Israel maintains security control until circumstances permit otherwise. The large majority of Israeli settlers who live in areas adjacent to the pre-1967 border would become part of Israel, and the remainder would be relocated.

Additional issues come to the fore as the two disillusioned societies try to create a climate for coexistence: economic progress for the Palestinians and demonstration by the PA that it is educating the next generation for peace. In addition, every step taken by Israel toward the Palestinians should be met by steps from the Arab states to integrate Israel into the region.

Regarding Syria, the Obama administration will support Israeli-Syrian peace talks, assuming the new Israeli government wants it to do so. The new administration could explore offers that would draw Syria out of Iran's sphere of influence, just as Kissinger pried Egypt away from the Soviet Union. Such an approach would also weaken Hizballah, given that Syria has been a conduit for the militia's arms. Without this dimension, it is hard to see peace talks being successful.

Finally, the United States needs to reassure Israel about its likely diplomatic approach to Iran. Israel will want to know that such efforts will not be open-ended, thereby prohibiting Tehran from running out the clock in its advance toward nuclear weapons. Engagement alongside economic sanctions may not succeed, but even failed engagement within a fixed time period could make the other options more credible.

This rapporteur's summary was prepared by Laura Cohen and Becca Wasser.


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!

by Ajam (not verified) on

These fellows still talk about the Middle Eastern nations so shamelessly as if the 19th century British Empire is determinning the fate of its royal subjects in the Indian subcontinent and the sourrounding domain! The subserviant subjects are to be granted just enough authority to regin in the disobedient ones! The American Midlle East policy should only go so far as it does not compromise Israel's interests. The nations in the region, their grievences and aspirations are totally irrelevant to this bunch! How condescending!


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Don't be so sad (to A-Irooni)

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

AnonymousIrooni: "So sad to see the excuse of the neocons and ultra right go away for your types come Jan 20th. .... am sure however that we will for sure blame Zionists and jews"

Irooni_jAn, again you speak wrongly for "we". My comment had no reference to Jews or even Zionists. I however blame the ultra right (Necons, AIPAC, ultra right wing Christians ..) for much of the disasters that have impacted not only the U.S but also the world (including Iran).
Not sure why you are so fixated with Jews ... fortunately some of the best Jewish intelectuals and humanists such as Mr. George Soros are vehemently against the ulrtra right criminals.
Irooni_jAn, Unlike you I don't believe these disasters (Bushes, Palins, McCains, ... and Libermans) will go away on Jan 20th, although they are humiliated, and defeated nationally and internationally...... reetard Palin is already thinking of come back!


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Dear Anonym7

by AnonymousIrooni (not verified) on

Very good comparisons and logic. So sad to see the excuse of the neocons and ultra right go away for your types come Jan 20th. I want to see what excuses you guys come up with next. It will be very interesting. I am sure however that we will for sure blame Zionists and jews for our troubles somehow. Thank you for further proving my point.


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shattered dreams!? (to AIrooni)

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

AnonymousIrooni says: "As a nation we are all a bunch of Khakbarsars"

AnonymousIrooni, Please feel free to put yourself, Fred and a few others in that category, not the rest of us. Also feel free to put in that category those who have miserably failed in Lebanon, Iraq, Georgia, ..., and the U.S., i.e, Necons, the ultra right republicans, AIPAC and their "Iranina" followers.
Go read the news about millions of Americans who have lost their jobs or savings ... because of the international, and national criminal policies that the ultra right has championed past few years.


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To Shadooneh

by Baffled (not verified) on

If my memory serves me right, in another post you reassured everybody that IRI was/is/will be the best regime and form of government in oil rich Iran that U.S. and Britian could ever hope for and there was no way that they would even consider getting rid of it or help people replace it with a transparent accountable sane regime. So why the worries?


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Now We Have more Sher O Ver from smhb

by AnonymousIrooni (not verified) on

Now all the Islamists and the opologists who supported or preferred Obama in their delusional thinking that he was going to take it easy on the IRI or that he was going to bring "change" from what Bush was doing are slapped in the face with the reality that whether there is a Democrat or Republican in the White House, they will treat the IRI thugs with the disrespect that they deserve.

What is the answer for these Islamists? Same lame excuse that Ahmadinejad makes for everything! The Zionists! Obama suddenly can not think straight and logically because he is a Zionist (after spending much of his political life with the likes of Ayers and Khalidi). Obama now is an "ardent zionist".

Whats the matter? Rahm Emmanuel shattered your dreams?

What a load of crap! While 3rd world countries (some Islamic) like Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, India & Brazil are all advancing in the past 30 year, the IRI with all its oil wealth has accomplished jack! None of these countries have oil and they are ahead of us economically, socially and politically. Our President sees the Mahdi at the UN and is in bed with retards like Chavez who are pooping in their pants because the price of oil just went below $59 and they will not be able to continue their idiotic national welfare policies.

As a nation we are all a bunch of Khakbarsars (as evidenced by characters such as Jaleho and smhb) because all we do is blame esstessmary, Zionists and the West. With all this oil money, all we have managed to do is to create a welfare state that can not produce or compete in the world with other nations in a sustained and competitive manner. What a load of crap! "anglo-american- zionist empire"! Get a life people.


smhb

Moronic delusions

by smhb on

Toofantheoncesogreat, Shadooneh, Jaleho,

Nice responses.
However dont forget that its not just the neo-cons but also the
neo-liberlas and for that matter anyone who adheres to the principles
of maintaining and expanding the anglo-american-zionist empire that
espews such garbage. Most of the pundits on zionist corporate owned
radio and tv are part of this cabal of lies and dis-information.

These thinks tanks, an oxymoron, are incapable of
producing quality analysis since they are imbeded with an ideology that
has well expired and they end up repeating and rehashing the same
nonsense over and over again. As if by repeating it and slightly
changing some of the verbage they add credibility to their faulty
precepts.

The spokesmen for the empire dont realize that they are
a bankrupt bunch of charlatans representing a bankrupt polity and
elite. Thats their number one delusion.

The policies they
prescribe has already been used up starting with Jimmy Carter to neo
con king Reagan, and Bush the father and neo liberal Clinton to flunky
neo con Bush. So, everything they had in their bag of tricks they
already tried to no avail.

President elect Obama maybe a neo-liberal by all
accounts up to this point and an ardent zionist and by implementing
bankrupt policies tried in the past 30 years he will only experience more failures.

 

 


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More Shero Ver from this Xerxes Character

by AnonymousIrooni (not verified) on

As usual same old excuses and slogans we hear from the Islamists who have occupied Iran for the past 30 years.


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xerexes: Where have you been

by sickofiiri (not verified) on

xerexes: Where have you been beloved? please be more generous than a mere paragraph when droping your pearls...


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Zionists

by XerXes (not verified) on

Are scared that their policies of war and destruction might have less customer as time passes. Let them talk, they are on the wrong side and eventually would disappear by time.


Mehdi

$570,250,000,000 the cost of war so far

by Mehdi on

Give that money to the mullahs and they will dance for you any way you want. What's the point of war? What's the point of "stick?" US administration is so incapable that with gobs and gobs of money they still find the need to create such a huge destruction in order to gain an incredibly small advantage. Just how useless are these people? $570 bllion is twice the latest annual Iran budget. With that kind of money, it is not hard to creat democracy the right way. But it seems that the war business is more fruitful for a small few so they fake all the reasons and convince people that there is a need for a multi trillion dollar "stick."


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Fred's delusions

by Anonymous1971 (not verified) on

When the U.S. overthrows regimes, ir brings to power right-wing mass murderers: (Suharto and the juntas in Central America), Mobutu in Zaire, Pinochet in Chile--to name a few. And you want the rotten U.S. government to "help" Iranians? It already did that in 1953, when the agents of change were "Shaban bi Mokh" and CIA-paid thugs and gangsters. The U.S. government has 100 times more blood on its hands than any Iranian regime in history--it killed more civilians in Vietnam alone.


Jaleho

Clawson, another neocon DREAMER

by Jaleho on

Mr. Clawson's neocon mind ridiculously reversed the notion of "carrots" and "sticks" from what is in Iraqi mind!

His opinion of what Iraqis consider as "carrots" or "sticks" is as funny, arrogant, and erroneous as the neocon perception of "Iraqis will welcome us with open arms." Right, except that Iraqis meaning of "arms" was completely different from the "arms" that Mr.. Clawson was hoping for!

Now he is dreaming again:

" Perhaps if Washington wielded both the "stick" of rapid withdrawal and the "carrot" of sustained commitment, progress will quicken."


Sorry Mr. Clawson, but for Iraqis your "rapid withdrawal" is the "carrot", and your "sustained commitment" is the "stick."

And, as much as you want to forget this minor detail, Iraqis poured in the streets against SOFA, and Ayatollah Sistani just announced that he will oppose any pact with US which would compromise even an iota of Iraqi sovereignty. His aid said that he would announce his stance on SOFA as soon as Iraqi officials conclude their talks on SOFA, and for sure his position on the pact won't be what you're thinking of!

Patrick Clawson also seems to be in complete denial of reality regarding Iran, he says:

"Washington has not been able to secure support for greater sticks against Iran; it can only gather such support if it is seen as also offering carrots. In other words, on the Iran nuclear issue, carrots are the only way to get to sticks."

Actually, if you recall your neocon buddies in particular John Bolton tried his very best to use sticks alone at first, he failed. Then he was forced to accept "US show sticks and Europe offer carrots," he failed again and got kicked out of his job too.

It has really not been for your lack of effort in using sticks, it was because Iranians under the hardliner president Ahmadinejad, who was elected on the platform of safeguarding Iran's right to nuclear energy, decided that they are neither scared of your "sticks", nor do they care for your "carrots."

And now that everyone here hopes and assumes that election of Obama might open up a realistic possibility of cordial and useful dialog between Iran and US, Mr. Clawson is worried that US might be sending the wrong signals to Iranian hardliners! Too late, they got elected to defeat ideology like yours, and defend Iranian right to nuclear energy. That's irriversible.

Mr. Clawson also seems oblivious to the fact that the "Color Revolutions" lost all their colors. He seems to have some hope for a "velvet" revolution in Iran. I suggest you first look at the ill fate of not only the "Purple" revolution, "Tulip" revolution, or "Cedar" revolution, but you can even take a look at the reversal of the more successful "Rose" or "Orange" revolutions before dreaming of a "velvet" one in Iran. As you noticed, Iranians already had the memory of 1953 CIA coup in Iran which prompted them to be more vigilant the second time they thought US might interfere with their internal affairs.

Finally, Mr. Clawson warn us that engaging Iran will not bode well with US "friends:"

"For Israel, such efforts may signal America's willingness to live with a nuclear Iran, in the hope that Tehran can be deterred and contained."

Actually, it is in America's interest to live peacefully with a nuclear Iran which is a rising power in the region, US can get Iran's help for stabilization of Iraq and Afghanistan too. This is not in Israel's interest. But, Israel is becoming too expensive a liability for the US, and US can not afford to continue to undermine its own interest for Israel's sake. Patriotic Americans should have America's interest as their policy, first and foremost, not that of Israel.


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Last time I checke, Clawson, Satloff and Makovski had no...

by Shadooneh (not verified) on

official positions in ANY branch of the US administration. Obama, I am sure, doesn't give a rat's ma'ghad about what these washed up neo-cons think and say. You can tell Patrick Clawson has started eating crow by the ton when he opines, "Washington has not been able to secure support for greater sticks against Iran; it can only gather such support if it is seen as also offering carrots". Clawson was singing a completely different song by pushing for sanctions and, wink wink, war. The American people have seen through the lies and spins put out by these right wing Israel-firster nutjobs. That's why Clawson, Makovski and their cohorts are trying to be conciliatory to Obam, whom they try to obliterate politically, by giving speeches in one of those Washington Zionist sponsored right wing cesspools they like to call a think tank.
David Makovski, shows his duplicitous right wing Zionist colors in a more outrageous way by putting out BS such as, "Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have converging interests in the West Bank, since both parties fear the rise of Hamas. Moreover, ... the way to stave off this threat is by delaying the Israeli army's withdrawal, bolstering the training of Palestinian security forces in Jordan, increasing security cooperation, and building Palestinian civil institutions." I don't know who posts this kind of nonsense on this site, but I challenge anyone who can come up with a credible quote from ANY responsible Palestinian in or out of the leadership circles who has EVER said they have "converging" interests with the Zionist invaders and they wish the occupiers would "delay" their terrorist army's withdrawal! Finally, any person with a average IQ can see what "other option" this Zionist war monger is pointing to when he says, "even failed engagement within a fixed time period could make the other options more credible". These parasites still believe their brain droppings matter. But the American people have prove they realize their national interests are under constant threat by these Israel-firsters and that's why they are trying to be helpful after they did their best prevent Obama's election as the president by calling him Moslem, terrorists and above all, Hossein.


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This is modernism, this is democracy and western philosophy

by Toofantheoncesogreat (not verified) on

"Finally, the United States needs to reassure Israel about its likely diplomatic approach to Iran. Israel will want to know that such efforts will not be open-ended, thereby prohibiting Tehran from running out the clock in its advance toward nuclear weapons. Engagement alongside economic sanctions may not succeed, but even failed engagement within a fixed time period could make the other options more credible."

"Iran, on the other hand, presents a different set of challenges. A major U.S. effort to engage Iran is inevitable, primarily because the United States must reverse the common perception -- in the United States and around the world -- that Washington is at fault for the lack of progress on the Iran front. The United States is going to have to make a major effort to show that it is prepared to walk the extra mile for compromise. Washington has not been able to secure support for greater sticks against Iran; it can only gather such support if it is seen as also offering carrots. In other words, on the Iran nuclear issue, carrots are the only way to get to sticks."

In short, pretend that you are being civil by trying to solve the Issue diplomatically, crash the boat, then bomb the country while telling the world you had no choice. At the same time, make up excuses for the murder which run in the line of "it would hurt democracy if one talks to the mullah regime".

And this will be Obamas politics, these are the words of his advisors, be ready for it.


Fred

The right thing

by Fred on

Winston Churchill:“America will always do the right thing, but only after exhausting all other options.”

 Helping Iranians both materially and morally to overthrow the despotic Islamist republic has been, is and will be the only long-term solution. The sooner America exhausts all other options the sooner sanity, peace and stability can come to the region.   

 


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