NUCLEAR

Fred, I think you will agree

Never mind though; we are more likely to find common ground in less analytical matters. So this time I will change the subject.  Who is this rahajoon29 on the right side of my screen? She's lovely, don't you think?

Chaffless

I thought your point was that the Islamist republic is needed to hold the nation together till a viable alternative is found. I see now it is about the pros and cons of sanctions. I am sorry I’ve gone through this merry-go-round too many times to feel compelled do it once more. Changing subject midstream is unbecoming of you and that is no chaff. 

Fred, splitting hairs

Substance:

1. Ari argues that lifting sanctions and including Iran in global affairs would be a fast way to weaken IRI policies because national accomplishments would raise our level of politcal confidence. Let's call this the "feed a fever" theory.

2. Fred's argues that lifting sanctions is morel likely to raise the confidence of the IRI because it would appear the world community is legitimizing the regime. We can call this the  "starve a cold"theory.                           

Chaff:

1. Fred says Ari proposes the "feed the fever" idea becasue he is either in cahoots with the IRI, or is profoundly naive.

2. Ari says Fred proposes his "starve the cold" theory because he is a so mad at the IRI he has lost his sense of reason.

Jim Crow Laws

Are you being serious? Hope you are not spitting hairs or being glib. The situation is as in Jim Crow laws, removing the hindrance for the people to make their choices freely and NOT making it for them.  The Islamist republic is being empowered by foreign capital, removing that the playing field is somewhat leveled giving Iranians a fighting chance. As to the writing style, go for the substance, if you find any that is, and virtual- edit the parts that irritate you.

Fred, just to understand you better

Part of why I'm having trouble seeing your line of reasoning may have to do with how you pepper your discourse with bouts of political passion. If possible, edit those out. If that's just your style of writing, I'll live with it.

Haji babab novelet

Writing Haji babab novelet is not my cup of tea. Those who are into pipe dream of reformation within this Islamist regime and are willing to wait for it to the last enslaved Iranian from their perch in the West are more suited for the task.
All I know the last regime was warning that Iran will become “Iranistan”, something that never happened and with Iran being homogenized will never happen. That is precisely the tenet of your argument with “IRI finger in the dike” and “none keeps us together specifically as Iranians. For now, Shiism is performing that function.” That is patently untrue.The “we” that did the confronting the Shah should know that by now.
 As to my recipe, it is quite simple, nothing extraordinary, empowering the Iranians to freely make their choice. If as the lefties say and the Islamists chime in that it is the end of Iran as we know it, so be it. If their imagined Iran is such fragile entity that requires maniacal murderers to keep it together, one has to question the wisdom of such unity.
Of course the actual Iran is nothing of the sort and far from it, but with revisionist historians abound one has to dust off actual credible history books to realize that.
You want it 1,2,3. Here is one way of weakening the Islamist regime’s grip on Iranians’ throats. 1- Stop all, and that is all oil imports from Islamist republic, there is an oil glut and it is definitely doable. 2- Stop all refined petroleum including gasoline exports to the Islamist republic. 3- Declare an Internationally guaranteed general amnesty for lower echelon functionaries of the Islamist regime.
The rest is up to Iranians inside Iran, no one, absolutely no one has the right to decide their fate from outside. The way thing are going the Islamist are eliminating the best and the brightest and facilitating the flight  of others to be left alone to do as they wish with enslaved Iranians. At this rate the oil income will not suffice the growing population and the best outcome is a Bangladesh in our not too distant a future.

No nation in such situation has ever succeeded in emancipating itself without help from outside and betting Iranian lives to be the first to achieve such feat is the height of arrogance and irresponsibility.

I trust Iranians’ judgment to make the right choice it seems to me there are those who don’t and like to act as their guardian, isn’t that precisely the definition of Vali-faghih?

Fred, bake me a pie

Pie in the sky

On the issue of the Islamist republic’s crimes Iranian lefties kept silent throughout the last U.S. administration’s time in office. Their logic was not to legitimize and give added ammunition to those who wanted militarily change the regime in Iran. In furtherance of this strategy some even became active Islamist apologists. 

Now the formulation of the status quo proposition is a pie in the sky strategy warning not to mess with the grout i.e. the Islamist republic which is holding the nation’s bricks together.

 As it has been throughout the ages the same self-serving erroneous warning was sounded by the last regime and proven wrong, again.

ganselmi, the risks.

We’re not ready to loosen the IRI finger out of the dike.

To bande

No country with an inflation rate of 30% can be called "prosperous" -- and that has nothing to do with UN sanctions.

Oh and: WRITING IN ALL-CAPS WILL NOT, I REPEAT, WILL NOT AMPLIFY THE POWER OF YOUR IDEAS!

Dual communication

TO THOSE WHO CAN'T SEE PROSPERITY OF IRAN AND IT'S
INDEPENDNESS:MANY LIKE YOU HAVE TRIED TO GIVE USA GOVERNMENT ADVISE DURING THE LAST 30 YEARS , NONE HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL. YOU IF REALYY LIKE IRAN AND IF YOU DON'T LIKE TO SELL IRANIANS INTEREST FOR YOUR OWN
GAIN IS BETTER TO ASK PRESIDENT OBAMA TO LIFT ALL THE SANCTIONS THAT HAS BEEN IMPOSED BY HIS
PRECEDORS ON IRANIAN AND SEE HOW THE HARD WORKING
PEOPLE OF IRAN WILL FLURISH.

What's the matter with the poor?

Regarding supporting a government who works against your economic and social interest, as the mullahs have done. This phenomenon is not unique to Iranians.

Did you know that in election 2004, The 10 states with the lowest household median income, where people are least likely to have healthcare and most likely to live in or below poverty, all voted Republican in 2004. Not only are they poor, but they're getting poorer. The five states with the steepest falls in income backed Bush. Why? Thomas Frank describes this paradox.

In his book What's The Matter With Kansas?, Thomas Frank described the tendency of working-class people to vote Republican as a form of derangement. He said that the working class had been hoodwinked into voting against its economic interests by "values" issues such as abortion and gay rights, both religious issues. The poor white usually vote republicans because they are more relgious and Republicans manipulate their religious sensibilities.

Now replace republicans with the mullahs, and you will see why despite their worsening condition, they still support their mullahs. It is a tragic situation and in the absense of free press, free education, free information, Iranian will continue to support those who don't have their interests at heart and they continue becoming poorer and poorer and more religious and superstitious.

It's a vicious cycle.

//www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/080507774X/...

Logic 101

All I said was that the majority of people in Iran still support IRI.

What do you think "Support" means? If they are behind the gov't, it follows that they also support/endorse the 'said government's policies, both domestic and foreign. It means they are in agreement with the vision of their government for their lives.

Definition of support

a. To aid the cause, policy, or interests of: supported her in her election campaign.
b. To argue in favor of; advocate: supported lower taxes.
8. To endure; tolerate: "At supper there was such a conflux of company that I could scarcely support the tumult" Samuel Johnson.
9. To act in a secondary or subordinate role to (a leading performer).
n.
1.

//www.thefreedictionary.com/support

wind,

I didn't say any of the things that you suggested. Those are your words not mine. All I said was that the majority of people in Iran still support IRI. And I'm talking about the whole Iran, not just northern Tehran. Prove me wrong if you can.

Dual Communication

As you mentioned this is a matter of national pride and followings should be considered in regards to this issue:

First: Building Nuclear Power stations was a Shah's idea and the first contract for this was with US (rather than IRI's idea).

Second: We can not have the policy of "Yek bam o do Hava" in the region for this, the issue of double standard by western powers.

Third: Why the Iranian people should suffer and pay price for this issue, I am talking about sanctions and the restrictions which is very inhumane and un-ethical.

Fourht: Persians are well known for being a peaceful nation as we do not have an aggressive culture (when was the last time that Persians attacked their neighbours?) even with an extreme government I dont see this issue as dangerous as it is in Pakistan or Israel.

This is another tactic to make Iran as a new ENEMEY in the region and sell more arms to the SMART! Arabs and deplete their national resources...

Payendeh Iran

Tanha dar Ahmadabad

Build it

"Build it, they will come"

ganselmi,   I truly

ganselmi,

I truly like to applaud you for a great article and phenomenal logic and reasoning. Very impressive.

I wish to see much more contribution on your part, and people like you, on this site and elsewhere in support of the Iranian people and against the Fascist regime in Tehran.

Thank you again.

must watch video

Ahmadinejad on science of Nuclear technology:

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfFOMn5EK1Q

if they build it they deserve it!

If IRI manages to build the nukes, it definitely deserves it, conversely if it is all noise, IRI does not deserve it. In final analysis to a large extent it comes down to a few dedicated politicians and scientists.

You can't stop science! by

You can't stop science!
by Anonymous.... (not verified) on Wed Jan 28, 2009 11:43 AM PST

More Maghlateh and sophistry by Q and his minions.

The type of nuclear technology the IRI is buying is a 70-years old antiquated, inefficient, and out-dated. We all know that the IRI is anti-science.

Why not research and develop up-to-date technologically advanced/efficient nuclear technologies?

Why is the IRI against cutting edge new technologies and science?

This population in Iran is

This population in Iran is so informed that the President of this country tells his supporters/constituents that a 16-year old girl was able to obtain/make nuclear technology by what she had in her kitchen and the subsequently, she was hailed as a national hero...If anyone remembers the story or has a link, please provide them.

This is country where people are waiting for their 1000-year old savior to jump out of well in Jamakaran any minute to improve their lives and make the world and Islamic Nabe Mohammadi. Give me a break ari, You're insulting our intelligence.

You can't stop science!

Just a few years ago, while Iran was in the midst of it's internal chaose of the 79 revolution, the west unleashed Sadam and sparked a war that killed hudreds of thousands of iranians. As Sadam attacked Iran, the US warships sank iran's docked naval vessels, and downed civilian airliner to send a message to Iran's fighter jets. At the same time (by a US official's own admission on 60 minutes) the west sold military aircrafts to Sadam, while Israel sold their to Iran, and since Sadam couldn't produce and train pilots fast enough, the french provided french pilots to fly Mirage jets (flying under Iraqi flags) on bombing missions inside Tehran.

In the midst of all this the western propeganda machine went in full motion to brand the muallahs as the monsters that the zionist, it's cronies or their naive fense post followers label as " expansionist, interventionist, confrontationalist, totalitarian, faciest, terrorist....blah! blah! blah!)

Don't treat Iranians as if they are a bunch of stooges. They don't view history as if it began a 100 years ago. Their youth see how we took democracy to Iraq while we turn the blind eye to Israel and Saudi Arabia, Darfur etc. They also know about how over the past 2000 years different imperialist powers succeeded in occupying Afghanestan.

Obama may be the new face, but everyone around him in our government has been there and done than for last 30+ years, and if our internal and external affairs is any indication, many of them are obviously suffering from Dementia.

If we continue with this naive, degrading and insulting phrase "All options are on the table" we will continue to expand the mullahs popularity at our own expense and doing. And with all do respect, if this essay and few of the posts in this thread are any indication, we fail to recognize that at this time and juncture our "Think Tanks" lack the knowledge or the IQ to match up with the mullahs.

Iranian know when and how to deal with their own government and under their own terms and conclusions. For now, if we aren't willing to eliminate our own nuclear aresenal, the west is best served to get use to the fact that Nuclear Technology will always remain a matter of national pride for Persians and Iranians alike!

False premise!

"good conscience and sound judgment"

How could they form "informed judgment" when they are kept the dark via censorship and brainwashed to be soldiers of Islam??

If all the details including better nuclear technologies , pros and cons including their dangerous and unsafe locations (e.i, populated areas and quake-prone locations) , costs and benefits, regarding nuclear power technology and how it is obtained, I'm certain that the most Iranians would rather spend their oil revenues on much better and profitable form of nuclear technology or other alternative and superior technologies than nuclear.

Ari, I Agree -- But!

"Beyond their own good conscience and sound judgment, Iranians don't need a stamp of approval to pursue any kind of technology."

In principle and as an Iranian, I fundamentally agree with what you've suggested here. It's all the more unfortunate then that the IRI's systematic misrule divests the average Iranian of the right to follow her conscience and exercise sound judgement. Or to use the language of constitutional patriotism: the absence of the rule of law and freedom of information prevents Iranians from being able to endorse -- freely and in good faith -- the decisions made by the regime. This profound injustice discredits any claims to national consensus cited by the IRI.

Which is why I think the legitimacy (or, really, lack thereof) of the "guardianship of the jurisconsult" or the other dubious categories on which the IRI rests its sovereignty should be the focus of efforts to dissuade Iranians from going down the path of nuclearization until such time as the regime's behavior is sufficiently modified that it can boast an authentic national consensus -- at that point of course, Iran will have (re-)entered the community of responsible powers.

But again, in principle, I very much agree with you. 

Mildly insulted by this article

US lacks moral credibility

The US has no moral credibility to complain about the IRI's human rights record, and the US has blatantly violated its own obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Countries that train and arm nun-raping death squads in Central AMerica and provide chemical weapons to Saddam are not to be relied with nuclear arms. Thats a reference to US, in case you didn't get it.

to: TP

TP: Based on your assessment, the US should infer that the majority of Iranians support the IRI's expansionist/interventionist/confrontational foreign policies including defeating "imperialist" US via "noble act of terrorism/resistance".

By your description, the majority of Iranian people are extremist who are staunch believer of militant Islam and its eventual goals of world domination a la Khomeini and wiping out Israel off the map. Your analysis of Iranian population also implies that majority of Iranians are Islamists/Jihadists who are willing to kill/jihad against the Satanic "WEST" in their "Noble" to create an Islamic Utopian world per Khamenie's orders.

In conclusion, you have branded the most of Iranian nation as fascists who are hell bent on challenging the Infidel West as prescribed by Koran in a new wave of Jihad of 21st century. In other words, the Iranian people are ready to destroy Iran and give their life and treasure in pursuit of this "holy mission".

If that is the case, I hope the supporter of the regime are also ready for the consequences of achieving their "holy project". I hope they don't expect the West to sit idly by and allow the jihadist/crusader mob to take over the world...

Let the crusade begin!

It was just an example

Like usual, most people are not capable of understanding the post. So let me make it so that your average iranian.com reader can get. In the western ideology we use a cost/benefit to value each alternative.
In the Eastern method your personal relation ship to the right person is the key. You can threaten IRI with annihilation, in fact Dubaya at one time had 3 nuclear air craft carriers in Persian Gulf, but IRI does not get that. Capiche.

dual communication

I read it twice to convinc myself that calling it a piece of crap would be justified. Obviously, by not knowing the author,my verdict could not be personal but hardly a day passes that the so called 'Iran analysts' living in the west don't make an ass of themselves by widely demonstrating, either, their ignorance or their prejudices. On the highly emotive and controversial question of Iran's quest for a nuclear capability, while personally against all nuclear weapons,wherever they might be, I could understand the fear of those in Iran who might be pushing for it, because I could name a couple of nuclear powers who have their nuke missiles targetet on Iran. But, for the life of me, I could not imagine any known nuclear power, including Israel, who have Paris or London on their sights, the two countries who passionatley defend spending billions on keeping and updating their useless arsenal.For that matter, I'd love to know where are the huge number of American,Russian and Chinese missiles targeted on! As for India and Pakistan, it is only a 'Delkhoshi' for imagining that they are virile, like an old man with a pill box full of Viagra!! So, my plea to all 'Iran analysts' is either have the guts to say it openly that its only OK for West's client states to have them, or politely shut up.

Fred , you have audacity to

Fred , you have audacity to feed us this domcracy crap ? when pals excercised democracy they denied FOOD and water and electricity , not to mention your us made cluster and tungestan and phospours and depleted uranium ..

and where are those western decomcracies that CRIED for TIBET few months ago ? how many kids china clustered ?

you talk democracy when us government are isreali citizen or her supporters , %23 of us senators are isreal citizen serving interest of a foreign country

thats TREASON punishable by death according to US LAW , is this wishes of american people = democracy ?

us presdient kenney was killed because he opposed isreal nuke program , so you need to obey your masters ( this is DEMOCRACY ), but in this case you get stronger mullahs and weaker europe

you streighten the regime as every iranian backs the nuclear program , even monarchist back nuclear program ..

you make europe hostage to russian (gas)and lost all its political power

because you dont want irans gas go to europe because DEMOCRACY means obeying your masters