FUTURE

Excellent Article

Mr. Monzavi Kia, thank you for fitting so many of the fundamental hazards of the present situation in Iran into such a compact article.  To all the ills that you have mentioned if I may add one more.  Given that 2/3 of the population is below 30 years old, I hate to think what the population of Iran may be in ten or fifteen years.    

With a government incapable and unwilling to devise and implement productive political and economic policies, we are headed for the abyss of being engulfed in the most complicated social and economic problems the likes of which some African countries are struggling with at the present.  

Lucifer.....

آیت اللّه‏ خمینی در بالکن منزل خویش ایستاده بود و با هر حرکت دست او، یک هواپیما به زمین می‏افتاد

?Really

I wonder why he did not use this weapon during Iran-Iraq war and instead he drank that Jaam-e zahr

جوون های ایران «شربت» شهادت میخوردند و در راه ایران میمردند ولی حضرت امام جام  «زهر» سر میکشید ولی روز بروز گردنش کلفت تر میشد!!

SMHB: fascism & communism claimed the same "advancements" too

1- Qajar and Pahlavi dynasty's role in Iran: please refer to the full text of my treatise, as linked in my website, as well as my articles and blogs just before this one.

2- Address the key fundamental issues confronting Iran prior to the 1979 revolution: same as 1. 

3- Since the author has used certain statistics I would like him to compare the illiteracy rate in Iran: It has been down throughout the 20th century, due to the Western influence during Qajar and Pahlavi too, when the Islamic Maktab-Khaneh was replaced with secular schools.

4- Is the author able to address the education and the high literacy rate of women in Iran after the revolution: Despite the fact that IRI would rather women locked in houses and under Chadoor!!! It is the momentum left by the liberating force of Western influence, as in 14 centuries of Islam, there was never such a movement toward women's education.

5- Is the author able to address the reduction in infant mortality rate after the revolution: Again this trend had been present all through the 20th century; i.e. Qajar and Pahlavi, as well. The real source of energy for all that is the WINDFALL OIL MONEY + Iranian intelligence, despite all the backwardness, dark ideology and neglect by IRI.

6- Is the author able to address the massive efforts at building infrastructure (roads, hospitals, clinics, ports, airports, primary / secondary and advanced educational facilities, cultural centers, parks and recreational facilities) and key industries after the revolution: No need to explain, because it does not exist! The Iranian industry, except for some military, chemical warfare and nuclear enrichment, has been in complete decline and retreat. Most industrial projects have been stalling at best. Most of the "completed" projects have been old and legacy projects from the Shah's period, which have been finished at 10 to 20 years over the schedule, 3 to 5 times over the budget, and now working at only 40% to 60% of capacity. E.g., today IRI has to import 50% of its gasoline usage from abroad, and at the current consumption and growth rate, by 2030, all the revenue from crude oil export will not be adequate for the required refined petroleum products!

7- Is the author able to address the huge and monumental advances in various fields of science after the revolution: medical, bio-medical, nano-technology, power engineering, aerospace, pharmaceutical, chemical, nuclear, psychology, neuro-sciences, ....: Show us examples of those advancements and I will try to explain! It is all propaganda and show-biz, just like the so called advances by North Korea!!!

8- Is the author able to address the significant and monumental achievements in design and manufacture of military hardware and firmware after the 1979 revolution to safeguard Iran's hard won independence: Yes, fascist and communist and such closed systems as IRI often put a lot of effort and money into militaristic projects. However, in case of IRI, even that is 90% fluff and propaganda.

9- Is the author able to enumerate for us what military hardware was actually produced domestically in Iran before the revolution that actually contributed to our security and independence: same as 8.

10- Is the author able to look at the huge agricultural imports before the revolution and compare the agri output between the two era's: Both are dismal, because the population and consumption growth have been incredibly rapid, and the land is arid. Over the last 40 years, on average, Iran has been importing 30% to 40% of its required foodstuff.

11- Is the author able to compare the number of university seats available to high school graduates before and after the revolution: The number and quantity of university seats have been increased without any respect to quality and substance, because IRI was from the start trying to undermine the educated class in Iran. They have infused huge numbers of their agents (basiji's, hezbollah, etc) into the universities, who have high school grades well below the normal acceptance level (17 to 18 during Shah's era). One can find numerous IRI agents in colleges and universities with GPA's in the 10 to 12 range. Those same agents receive preferential treatment upon education, for jobs in the state-owned industries (80% of positions), hence, creating a legion of unemployed and deserving doctors, engineers and graduates.

IRI is a rotten fascist state and no amount of statistics is required or necessary to dismiss it as such. Similarly, no data on industrial output, number of university seats, etc. would ever exonerate the likes of Hitler and Stalin!

interesting article, answer to smhb

"4- Is the author able to address the education and the high literacy rate of women in Iran after the revolution."

Ill answer this on his behalf

Iranian economy is not able to create solid employment for its citizens. It also lacks proper gender equality which forces most women to remain in school and continue their studies much longer than men. In developing countries, a growing trend doesn't necessary portray development.

In this case female rates for education are increasing because marriage age is going up as most families find it hard to find a proper spouse of their daughters. Notice that i am not making any judgments and rather seek to argue the issue by taking Iran;s traditional backwardness into account.

As for the article, it is a solid analysis on Iran but I do disagree with author's comparison between Iran and Soviet union. Regardless of how similar they may be, Iranian state has been more successful in creating a nation-state (that is a country-wide national ethic) than that of Soviet Union. Though this does not mean that I.R has been successful. I agree with author's overall view on downfall of the regime.

@ commenter: That is the nature of developing countries
Do not compare Pahlavis to current regime, this is largely fallacious. Both regimes were backward and facing with major developing issues that they could not deliver. Hence proving that one is better than other will not reveal and solutions to current problems.

Iran's Future

I would very much appreciate the author explaining the or expanding on the following:

1- Qajar and Pahlavi dynasty's role in Iran's colonization and domination by foreign powers.

2- Address the key fundamental issues confronting Iran prior to the 1979 revolution.

3- Since the author has used certain statistics I would like him to compare the illiteracy rate in Iran from 1901 to 2009 and actually graph it.

4- Is the author able to address the education and the high literacy rate of women in Iran after the revolution.

5- Is the author able to address the reduction in infant mortality rate after the revolution.

6- Is the author able to address the massive efforts at building infrastructure (roads, hospitals, clinics, ports, airports, primary / secondary and advanced educational facilities, cultural centers, parks and recreational facilities, .......) and key industries after the revolution.

7- Is the author able to address the huge and monumental advances in various fields of science after the revolution: medical, bio-medical, nano-technology, power engineering, aerospace, pharmaceutical, chemical, nuclear, psychology, neuro-sciences, ....

8- Is the author able to address the significant and monumental achievements in design and manufacture of military hardware and firmware after the 1979 revolution to safeguard Iran's hard won independence.

9- Is the author able to enumerate for us what military hardware was actually produced domestically in Iran before the revolution that actually contributed to our security and independence.

10- Is the author able to look at the huge agricultural imports before the revolution and compare the agri output between the two era's.

11- Is the author able to compare the number of university seats available to high school graduates before and after the revolution.

Lets talk after these points are properly addressed in your next article.

Tnx

Khomeini was for sure the Satan himself

I enjoyed the article of Arash. To me if a priest can cheat a whole nation in this way that Khomeini has, then he must have been the Satan himself. You cannot find any better description for that evil.

moment Lucifer moment

Imam (god bless his soul) was not downing the US planes with his hand; it was another organ he was using :O))

احتمالات آینده احتمالات آینده آینده ایران در قرن بیست و یکم

وقتی از وزیر دفاع وقت آمریکا درباره چگونگی شکست مفتضحانه عملیات نجات پرسیدند، گفت: «آیت اللّه‏ خمینی در بالکن منزل خویش ایستاده بود و با هر حرکت دست او، یک هواپیما به زمین می‏افتاد

و اوهنورهم ایستاده و تاانقلاب مهدی امت همیشه درصحنه راتنهانخواهدگذاشت تمت