SECURITY

مرسی‌ شراب قرمز جان، همینو کم داشتیم!

حالا دیگه به مقام معظم رهبری، بزرگ ارتش گاوان، گزارشات دست کاری شدهٔ امینیتی میدند! حقم دارن کی‌ ما کجا شنیدیم که اصلا آب از آب تو ایران تکان میخوره؟ مگه ایران جزیرهٔ صلح و آزادی نیست؟ مگه انتخابات ایران منصفانه‌ترین و آزاد‌ترین انتخابات دنیا نیست؟ رهبر هم باید همین‌ها رو بشنوه دیگه، غیر از این خیانته!

Everything is sacred

خامنه‌ای همچون شاه معتاد دریافت گزارش‌های امنیتی شده است

//www.greencorrespondents.com/2010/08/blog-post_13.html

Situation is much Worse than reported even in this article

Dear Fellow Iranians,

I have been to Iran 5 times since last June due to my parents' sever illness because of old age after 27 years (1982) when we finally threw out the Invading Arab Hordes out of country and Khorramshahr was free again, as I had no desire to go back to witness Mullahs' Murderous Regime ruining our country.

However, to my horror with every trip I realized first hand that Iran is in deeper abyss than I had ever imagined. The Anger and disillusionment among the population is rampant, and the Khameie's Malijak, Ahmadinejad and his Gang are just delaying the inevitable Implosion.

The current situation in Iran parallels what happened in China under Mao in the 50s (Great Leap) equivalent to Khatami (Supposed Moderate and Reformist) Election in order to identify and suppress the inside and outside opponents, and 60s (Cultural Revolution Fiasco) equivalent to 2005 & 2009 Ahmadinejad's Fraudulant elections which were to completely get rid of any elements within or without the regime, and remove any remaining real or imagined opponents. That is until Deng Xiao Ping got rid of the Gang of 4 and made a deal with USA (Carter, Reagan and Bush Sr. Administrations) to bring most of their manufacturing to China for their extremely cheap labor.

However, Mullah's Murderous Regime has a huge Dilemma, and it is that current China's Regime although very brutal were wise enough to provide their Middle Class Technocrats with some sort of economic well being even if it was some what limited. They also understood that by doing this they could keep the General population pacified while creating the fastest growing economy in the world. They also built strong relationship with their old adversaries, and in turn were able to keep their Enormous Population well fed on a daily basis.

The problem with the Mullah's Murderous Regime is that a large number of their ranks have begun to actually believe their own Propaganda Crap about foreign or domestic conspiracies, while some of their Apologists like ABARMARD on this Forum try to color their Incompetent and Savage Behavior by their so called moderate views.

To my other Horror I found out that most of the people whether young or old welcome the Israel or US military attack. I kept telling anyone who listened that, it is PURE INSANITY to wish anything like that, and our country will be reduced to rubble. However the ordinary people are so FED UP and ANGRY with these Goons that they don't listen to LOGIC any more, and want them removed by any means necessary.

The situation is very fluid in Iran, and these guys will not give up easily until they completely ruin Iran.

Salutations to ALL the TRUE Sons and Daughters of Iran.

Mehdi2009

Much of Iran's economy is "domestic production"

Remember the potato production couple years ago?  Iran is producing a lot of crap for domestic production which keeps many afloat but there is limit to this market and once it becomes over produced that is yet another blow.

They can't sell junk to other countries either.  Couple years ago they sold some crop dusters to some poor farmer in Australia and called it major trade with Australia in PRESS TV!

It just doesn't look good and when there is a need and demand for change and better solutions someone has to step up. 

Everything is sacred

If you and you children go to sleep hungry at night, night

after night, if you have to work 2 or 3 jobs and still can't provide a decent life, if the minimum wages of the country are  one third of the poverty line,  the economy has already, effectively collapsed.

IR has been able to impose such a drastic level of povertyand  repression  on Iranian people that economic and societal security simply is non-existent in Iran.

Alas the poor, working-class, and toilers of the country lack country-wide organizations and institutions to fight back. Untill they're able to organize themselves on a national scale and fight for their economic and political rights, no matter who's in power or whoever comes into power, we're all back to square one!

Well what r the 40M going to do when Ahmadi's economy collapses?

Everything is sacred

Irony of all ironies is that Rafsanjani was the one responsible

 for both: elevating Khamenie ( a mere Hojatol Islam back then, if you recall), to Vali Faghieh through his machinations within Experts Council, and he was also responsible for Sepah's initial drive and expansion into civilian economy. As "oktaby" mentioned above this creeping coup was actually started back in 2005.

In 2009 Sepah and AN ( their front man) organized the election and the two weeks of "freedom" before it, over-estimating their ability to control the post-election situation, with the aim of finally dislodging Rafsanjani and entourage ( Musavi, Koroubi, Khatemi,...) for good. Well, as many have observed the bomb they had in their hands, exploded in their hands, hence the current situation. ! 

As far as any notion of "revolution" is concerned, it would be helpfull to keep in mind that according to Islamic Republic's own Statestical Center we have 10,000,000 ( that's ten millions) Iranians living below the absolute poverty line, and another 30,000,000 just under "normal" poverty level, a total of 40,000,000. That's approxiamtely 65% of the country. Unless and untill such monsterous economic discrepencies are taken into consideration, any kind of revolution, " velevt," " green," "red,"...will have little or no impact on the lives of the majority of the population, and we'll be back to square one!.  

~~~

There is little here that is new but it is a good & timely overview nonetheless.

This is the continuation of the Coup in planning that founded its nucleus since at least 2005 if not earlier, fully crystallized in months leading to June 2009 selection and culminated on the election day. The key players, operational planning and fundamentals have not changed as detailed last year (//iranian.com/main/blog/oktaby/pictures-t...)

but they are fine tuning based on facts on the ground that include the uprising that started on election day. They have no intention of backing down and will stop at nothing including burning Iran to the ground.

OKtaby

Abarmad jaan Khamanei is not in the middle, not anymore anyway

The lines are drawn and the Ahmadi camp and conservatives are planning for after Khamanei.  Right now whoever is more Islamic zealot is in favor and will remain in favor until Khamanei dies.  The whole coup in 2009 election was about this very issue, to monopolize the power once and for all.

Once Khamanei dies the conservatives backed by IRGC will swoosh in and dig in their heels.  IRGC is sworn to back the Islamic "values" and it is not going to side with reformists anymore.

Reformists only hope are the people themselves and a velvet revolution, simple and clear.  Either a velvet revolution or Islamic lunacy for the foreseeable future.

Khamanei and Co got what they asked for, a velvet revolution.  Now they either have to kill it or surrender.  This is the battle line. 

Everything is sacred

There is war of power

The entire document from Moshafegh has the hints of what the Islamic system is made of. The different groups who want to play their cards to gain some momentum and power. For the time being Rahbar is in the middle and he is acting as the power hub. How will it turn out, is still unknown.

Mr. Bagher Zadeh is correct to assume that many of Rahbar's policies are based on this types of mentalities, however I disagree that the actual internal struggle means that the power has already shifted and Khamenei has won. The article focuses on Khamenei and future of Iran.

The core base of current system has been split to house many different departments. Some management in other departments want to turn the table to grasp the power, now or in the future. The current power will naturally try to limit that possibility. No question about it.

Although the concept in regard to Moshafegh's remarks are correct, the lesson learned by Mr. Bagher Zadeh is not correct. He mistakenly equates Iranian power struggle with Saddam's regime. The difference is clear. 

During Saddam, or Shah for that matter, if they made a calculating mistake, they would lose the entire country. In this case, if Khamenei makes a mistake the other party will win. That's the most important note that went unnoticed in this article. The stability of power in Iran is not there, considering that the support of Sepah is not rock solid to the current leader. Things as easily could change in our Iran. Make a note of it.

One step closer to the 2nd Coup?

I still haven't read the text of Moshafegh's diatribe, but all these attacks on Larijanis and the "principalist" point to the next phase/aim of the military-security apparatus ( Sepah and its off-springs).

It seems that they're preaparing the ground to put the clregy back into Qum ( "Vatican City of Iran") and present themselves as some type of Ultra-Nationalist, hence Mashayyie's rant on "Maktab Iran," and such.

All these wars of position ( using Gramsci's terminology ) seems even more far-fetched and absurd since Sepah's first Coup ( the Electoral Coup of June 12, 2009) wasn't really a "shining success," to say the least, they weren't able able to dis-lodge the Greens, and their supporters out of the social scene in Iran. 

I was wondering what Mr.Bagher Zadeh thinks about this new "nationalist" face of the Sepah, and the possibilty of Sepah going up against the Clergy?

cheers

-Hoshang 

چه اسم‌های دهان پر کنی‌ هم برای خودشون انتخاب می‌کنن، "سردار!"

علی‌ خامنه‌ای تنها چیزی که نبود و نیست، رهبر و استعداد و هنر رهبری کردن مردم رو دارد. همون جور که آقای سیک از دولتمردان دولت آقای کارتر همین هفته نوشت، آقای احمدی‌نژاد "عوجوب ایه"  بر آماده از سپاه پاسداران. علی‌ خامنه‌ای هم همینطور.  سپاه پاسداران خبر مرگ خمینی که نزدیک شد، ایشون رو علم کردن و ایشون هم تا حالا که هر سازی زدن براشون رقصیده.

همون جور که شما گفتید سخت هم نیست.  یک مشت اراجیف راجع به اسلام آنهم اسلام ناب ملکوتی و اثنا حشری قرقره کنند و مابقی فریب خرده و انقلابی مخملی.

همین هفته مگه نبود که آسپیران فیروزآبادی با اون هیکل لشش به معاون احمدی تهمت زد چون گفته بود پیش بردن ایران بجای اسلام هدف دشمنانه؟ آقای معاون هم از آسپیران شکایت کرد حالا قراره دائی جان جداشون کنه؟  همینه دیگه!

Everything is sacred

One of these Ash-Khors will spill the beans eventually

Sooner or later one of these very "Ashkhoreh Etealatie" will fall out with the regime and reveal all the S***t that's going on, strating right at the top with the so called rahbar downwards. The cracks have appeared, its only a matter of time.

About the picture:

a bunch of drunks wanted to make fun of a kid in a town in Iran, they asked him, do you have pimps in this town, he answered

"Na beh in radif"

Indeed very precarious period for IRAN

& IRANIANS.  WE must do something to prevent a disaster.

Thanks Dr. Bagher Zadeh for your great article.