2010 more like 1938

The question is not whether to appease Iran or not -- but whether Iran is appeasable

Share/Save/Bookmark

2010 more like 1938
by Tony Blankley
27-Aug-2010
 

Neoconservatives, Reaganites and other militarily assertive factions in the United States are sometimes accused of thinking it is always 1938 (Britain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich) -- that there is always a Hitler-like aggressor being appeased and about to drag the world into conflict. There is sometimes merit in that charge.

As, likewise, is there sometimes merit in the charge against isolationists and other doves that they always see 1914 (start of WWI) or 1964 (beginning of escalation of troops in Vietnam) -- the imminent and foolish entry into or escalation of a war that can't be won -- or even if victory were to be gained, it would be Pyrrhic.

Knowledge of history can be as much a snare as a guide -- if it is wrapped in a dogma that distorts the current facts to match the preferred historic lesson.

Our actions -- if any -- in the Iranian nuclear weapons development controversy cry out to be based on a careful assessment of facts -- and a heartless rooting out of assumptions, hidden or otherwise, that may be driving policy.

Those who are or will be calling for U.S. military action to damage and delay Iran's ability to develop operational nuclear weapons -- that is those for whom it is now 1938 -- make a number of assumptions: 1) The Iranian regime intends to develop nuclear weapons; 2) once it has them, being fanatics, they may actually use them against Israel, as they have repeatedly threatened; 3) even if they doesn't use them, it will change the dynamics of the Middle East by inducing a nuclear arms race between Sunni Muslim countries and Iran, and by giving Iran a huge capacity to intimidate and dominate the region; 4) both Europe and the United States will eventually fall within the missile shadow of a nuclear Iran -- thus giving Iran capacity to be a world player and possible precipitator of nuclear war even beyond the Middle East; 5) the regime is inherently hostile and aggressive, particularly against the U.S. and Israel, and will keep pushing until pushed back; and 6) even tough sanctions will not deter Iran -- moreover, Russia is too invested in Iran to truly cooperate with us, and even Europe will not enforce tough sanctions.

The 1938'ers further believe -- or claim to believe -- that while Iran can create havoc in response to our military action (threaten oil transport out of the Gulf, terrorist attacks in the Middle East, Europe and probably the United States, further harm to our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan), they would be even more dangerous -- and just as ill intentioned -- if nuclear armed. And they make the factual assumption that the threat will emerge sooner rather than later. John Bolton warned last week that we have only days.

The Obama administration, on the other hand, holds vastly different assumptions: 1) Iran may actually not want nuclear weapons. 2) If they do want them, Russia will help us stop them. 3) If we settle the Israeli/Palestinian dispute that will reduce any nuclear aspirations Iran may have. 4) If we were to attack Iran, Iran could create more chaos than we can manage. 5) But if Iran did develop their nuclear weapons, we can deter their use by providing a nuclear umbrella for both Arab and Israeli.

And, factually, they assume the danger is off by at least a year -- and that Iran is running into technical problems. Of course, predicting when Iran reaches its nuclear threshold is usually driven by policy goals. The CIA in 2007 -- which did not want war -- actually concluded that Iran had given up its objectives. Now they technically claim we have a year.

Back in 1938, British Prime Minster Neville Chamberlain could have gone down in history as the greatest diplomat of the 20th century -- IF he had been right that Herr Hitler had limited ambitions that could be appeased. There is nothing wrong with appeasement if the aggressor can be appeased at acceptable costs. But as we know, Hitler could not be appeased -- he had to be defeated.

So the question today is not whether to appease Iran or not -- but whether Iran is appeasable. And if not appeasable, whether its threat can be defeated with acceptable costs. Those are factual questions -- although all the facts cannot be known before the event.

For me, having observed the Iranian regime, as we all have, I find the Obama administration's factual assumptions to be mostly wishful thinking, at best. Although, the almost certainty of Iran's terrorist response to a military attack by the United States is a factor to sober the mind and hesitate the hand. Nonetheless, the grim assessment of the 1938'ers seems sadly more realistic.

First published in HuffingtonPost.com.

AUTHOR
Tony Blankley is a syndicated columnist in the United States.

Share/Save/Bookmark

 
default

Dariush

by Doctor X on

Thank you for that analysis Dr. Dracula.:)


Dariush A

Doctor X

by Dariush A on

You wrote,

 Dariush, You eat , Breath and sleep on this don't you?   Anything and everything that goes wrong around you, i guess is blamed on Israel? Even pronouncing words???

No Doc, I just go to WC on this.

When did I ever said they are to blame? I haven't even started yet.

How else could "jigar baaz" be spelled "jgarbuz" other that an Israeli trying to speak Farsi?  

I had a friend name Sima, she spelled her name "Sikhma" 

So I used to tell her "sikh to you later" instead of see you later, just to make sure she understands me. 

I know these devils.  When you see a Zionist, you only see half of them, the other half in under the ground.

I hope you are convinced.


 


default

Darisuh

by Doctor X on

You eat , Breath and sleep on this don't you?

Anything and everything that goes wrong around you, i guess is blamed on Israel? Even pronouncing words???


Dariush A

Doctor X

by Dariush A on

I thought of that. But jgarbuz is way off from jeegar baaz.

I just realized, that is how an Israeli would probably spell and pronounce it.


default

Jeegar Buz?

by Doctor X on

 

Jeegaresho eshgaas.


jgarbuz

I said Long Live Iran WITHOUT AHMADINEJAD and Khameini.

by jgarbuz on

I can also say "Long live Germany" but without Hitler and the Nazi party as well.


jgarbuz

I said Long Live Iran WITHOUT AHMADINEJAD and Khameini.

by jgarbuz on

I can also say "Long live Germany" but without Hitler and the Nazi party as well.


jgarbuz

Hitler was only a Chancellor

by jgarbuz on

Khameini and Ahmadinejad will find "emergency powers" loopholes to stay in power as well.


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

I thought you wrote, Long Live Iran. My bad jarguz. we cannot be friends.


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

Now you are whining again.

The key words are;

You, pressing ahead, stupid ideas, sooner or later, you will turn, yourself , into bars of soup.

There is nothing there initiating Ahmadinejad or in his time. The emphasize is on you and your stupid ideas bring that upon you, some how, sooner or later. To avoid that, you should get rid of stupid ideas and start acting wisely, fairly and humane!!!!

Good to see you back Abarmard, How was your weekend? i have been wasting mine on this jarguz.

That is what I said after the election, there is no need to chaos and etc. he will be gone in a few years, but see what they did.

As for Ahmadinejad, whether he is president or not, he will still "long live".

jgarbuz, First you defend Israel and now you say long live Iran? Why didn't you say that in the beginning?  I guess we can be friends after all.

peace


Abarmard

Yousef; good

by Abarmard on

Then sit back and chill for now, why a sad face luti ? (masalan!)


yousef

"Ahmadinejad is gone in a few years"

by yousef on

So will the entire terroristic Islamist regime, and you'll be left out of work,  Haj  polofossor cyber bassiji!


Abarmard

Ahmadinejad is gone in a few years

by Abarmard on

He is only a president.


jgarbuz

Long Live Iran WITHOUT Ahmadinejad!

by jgarbuz on

Thank you for wishing us to become bars of soap. I think pretty much every word out of your mouth proves the correctness of this article. Ahmadinejad, like Hitler, cannot be be appeased. And I think his end will be the same. And, like Hitler, he will not care if IRan goes down with him as well.


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

Now you are jumping from Zionist's low grade balls to camels and horses. 

As I said before, you might fool a few fools like yourself here and there, but world knows who you are.  You press ahead with the same stupid ideas you have, sooner or later you will turn yourself into bars of soap.

Long live Iran and Ahmadinejad. 


jgarbuz

I suppose you are referring to the traitor Mordechai Vanunu

by jgarbuz on

The fact that they let him out of prison at all is amazing to me. In the US, that kind of traitor would never see the outside again in his life. Anyhow, what he revealed still proves nothing. It does not prove that Israel has even one atomic bomb.

And there are no "disappeared" people in Israel. It's not possible in Israel. For one thing, it is too small a country and people know each other. Second, it is a truly flourishing democracy with a really out of control free press. Nobody could just "disappear" without everybody knowing about it soon enough. 


jgarbuz

Jews don't steal clothes

by jgarbuz on

What is garbuz? Ask a Ukrainian.

Jews don't steal clothes, and in the time of Moses, the Egyptians called that land Retenu, and others called it Canaan. And Moses never got to the Promised Land so the whole story is a joke for idiots. And the Hebrews were called Israelites. IN a 1200 BC stele of the Pharaoh Menreptah, now in the Cairo Museum, the pharaoh brags about his conquests in Canaan. Among many other things, he writes "Israel is laid waste; his seed is destroyed." So some group called "Israel" already existed in that land over 3200 years ago.

A better story told by Bedouins is how they acquired the camel. At that time, the Arabs used only horses and there were no camels in Arabia. A group of Bedouins found their way up in some narrow high country, and there they saw some Jews with these strange animals they had never seen before. When they were asleep, the Bedouins crept in and stole the camels. That is how the Bedouins claim they acquired camels. 

 

 

 


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

Here is just one who was jailed for speaking the truth and exposing your Zionist government. He was jailed for 18 years and since his freedom he has been arrested for several times. The dead are not alive to talk and tell you their stories. If you want to hear their stories get a two way ticket. I will even give you a million dollar check payable to you, so you cash it there and spend it.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk_fqooGe3o


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

So is Israel, The angel of death. At least Iran is Iran and Ahamdinejad is Ahmadinejad, but Israel is Israel.  You cannot deny that.

Peace or war? it is your choice. the options are on the table. you garbuz


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

I think everyone has read enough of your lies and false numbers and illogical reasoning what you call logic. You latest comment is what we call "Gondeh Goozi". This one can have very bad side effects on you. specially in such and old age.  You referred to your book. I don't think Torah is what you have been reading. You must have be reading the Book of BS written by veiled prophet of khorasan.

One day a man was telling a story about Moses and how he was swimming in a river in Palestine and some Jews went and stole his cloths and he had too come out naked and.....

Suddenly a Jew from the crowd yield, That is a lie, The Jews weren't even in Palestine back then to steal his cloths.

Now, it is the same story with you garbuz.

I must go now. But I'll be back.  By the way, what the hell is garbuz?


jgarbuz

Satan was an angel

by jgarbuz on

Some Germans still believe, deep in their heart, that Hitler was an angel. Some Russians still pine after Stalin.

What I do know is this. Any leader who tortures and shoots HIS OWN PEOPLE is on the evil side. It's one thing to harm the enemy, but when you are crushing your own people with violence just for questioning you, then you know what kind of "angel" he really is, regardless of how charming or well-spoken he or he may be. 

Actions speak louder then words. Have you heard of an Israeli government shooting its own people for demonstrating? I was in many large Israeli demonstrations against some policies of the Israeli government back in the time when Yitzhak Shamir was PM, but never was there ever a thought that Israeli police would shoot down or torture their own people.


Dariush A

tehran e azad

by Dariush A on

keep in mind that the Jews were Germans and Minority and if you compare the minority executed in Iran, the numbers are a few hundred in Iran VS a few hundred thousands in Germany. That is of course, if we go with actual numbers not the exaggerated numbers. 

what makes it worse is that the Germans didn't harm their own Christians, while IRI has killed tens of thousands of Muslims.  I must agree with you on that part of your comment.

I don't agree on Ahmadinejad though. He is an Angel. Did you hear that garbuz?


jgarbuz

No, peace can only be reached by FULLY recognizing the

by jgarbuz on

JEWISH STATE as the legal, historical and rightful homeland of the Jewish nation by all Muslim and other states. In exchange for FULL recognition of the Jewish National Home (words used by the League of Nations in 1920), and full recognition of the Jewish State (words used by the United Nations General Assembly in Res. 181) I would cede considerable amounts of ancient Jewish lands to the Arabs for a totall democratic, peaceful, demilitarized 22nd Arab state, which they can call Palestine if they so wish. That can be the Palestinian homeland, if they so wish. Basically, I fully agree with Netanyahu's position on the matter.

As for Ahmadinejad and Khameini's threats, he should be grateful that Israel had not dropped 50 atomic bombs on Qoms and his nuclear sites by now. This is due to our Jewish kindness and decency. We have had the power to physically eliminate his country from the "pages of history" but have not used it. I don't know if it was wise not to do so, but Israel tries to restrain itself and act in a decent, moral way. Khameini and Ahmadinejad shoots and tortures his own people, so we can understand what he would do to us if he already had the means to do it. 

No, the choice of peace of war is up to the Muslims to decide. Jews  only want peace., We never had  a warlike people, and never had a huge empire. Our empire is of logic and law and the desire for peace, as our Torah prescribed for us. We are not people of the sword, but people of the book. However, if we will be forced to draw t the sword again, it will be a day of terrible shock and awe, the likes of which has not yet been seen on earth. SO I hope and pray the Muslim world comes to some signs of sanity before the unthinkable is unleashed.


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

You wrote:   The threats by the Iranian theocrats and the dictator to wipe the "Zionist entity" from the "pages of history" is naked aggression against all principles of international law. No different than the aggression by Germany and the USSR against Poland in 1939, a state they too had decided to "wipe from the pages of history."  Something my parents paid a high price learning about first hand.

Isn't that what the rabbi (your God) advocates? the annihilation of Palestine? Besides, which one is a wrong? To speak of it or to actually doing it as your government has been?

Old man, you should hit your head to a hard surface. maybe that get some sense into your head.  If you really feel for Israel, you should know war is not going to save it, but destroy it.  Iran is not Syria or Egypt. Iran can piss on Israel with bombs, if you ask for it.

 


tehran e Azad

IRI is worst than Nazis

by tehran e Azad on

IRI is worst than Nazis for Iranian themselves! 

sepah=gestapo

ss=Basij

hitler=Khamenei

Gerbels= Ahmadi

Goering= ahamad Khatami

Himmler= Yazdi

 


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

You wrote: We lost 1 million children, including my four year old brother, to Hitler, and we will not see the blood of any more of our children go unavenged. If you wish to spare the lives of all children, best throw your ideas of "martyrdom" into the trashheap of history where it belongs.

If that is what you want, then you are on the wrong track. That can only be prevented by peace and peace can be achieved by recognizing the rights of the Palestinians and other nations in the world.  The solution is very easy. You get your behind back to borders in 1967 agreement. But you really don't want peace. What you want is the annihilation of your neighbors and expansion of Israel.  You have had it easy so far, fighting the rocks with advanced war planes and bombs. Well times are changing. 

If you lost your younger brother and rest of your family, you should know how the Palestinians and others feel, but you don't. So that tells me you a 100% pure blood sucking Zionist.  If you had balls, you would turn around and take revenge from the Germans not Palestinians.  But you traded off your brother's and rest of your family's blood with a few sq ft of land in Palestine. Then you come here and cry wolf, thinking we will fall for your crap.

Peace or war? It is your choice. Ahmadinejad said, all the options are on the table. "you garbuz"

 


jgarbuz

Yes, by TOTALLY LEGAL meaning 100% LEGAL!

by jgarbuz on

In accordance to Herzl's pronouncements at the 3rd Zionist Congress in Basle in 1897, that the Land of Israel would be reacquired by "public law," after WWI, with the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the Council of the League of Nations in 1920 and 1922, ruled that the "Jewish National Home" is to be reestablished in "Palestine," and gave Jews the RIGHT to return to resettle "wastelands," "State lands," and any lands that the Zionist land purchasing agencies would buy from landowners. However, unfortunately, the lands east of the Jordan river were closed to Jewish resettlement and give to Emir Abdullah of Mecca and renamed "The Emirate of Transjordan." However, all empty land west of the Jordan river were open to Jewish resettlement.

However, due to Arab intransigence, violence and disturbances, the United Nations in 1947 voted on a compromise, to partition western Palestine, all of which had previously been promised by the League of Nations to the Jews, to be divided into a "Jewish State" and "an Arab state." But as we know, the Arabs rejected the UN compromise, UNGAR 181, and attacked the newly authorized Jewish state with 5 armies - a signal violation of the first principle of the UN CHarter against committing aggression. The Arab attempt to eliminate the newborn Jewish state backfired and instead of driving the Jews into the sea, 725,000 Arabs left instead. Israel accepted an armistice in 1949, but the Arabs refused to accept the Green Line as the final borders, nor to recognize the Jewish state. 

Without going further into subsequent history, the point is that the rebirth of Israel is possibly the most legal creation of a state in all of history. First the commitment of the early Zionists to reacquire Jewish land by lawful means; second the ruling by the League of Nations that the Jewish National Home is in Palestine; and the UN authorization by 2/3rds vote of the creation of a Jewish state are all hallmarks of international legality that few other states can claim for themselves.

 

The threats by the Iranian theocrats and the dictator to wipe the "Zionist entity" from the "pages of history" is naked aggression against all principles of international law. No different than the aggression by Germany and the USSR against Poland in 1939, a state they too had decided to "wipe from the pages of history."  Something my parents paid a high price learning about first hand.


Dariush A

jgarbuz

by Dariush A on

You wrote: As for Zionism, I am very proud that the Jewish nation has been able by legal means to restore a part of its occupied homeland back to its displaced people who had to live in exile in the lands of others.

By legal means????????    and you speak of truth????

At least we admit to our governments internal wrong doings and we are not proud of that part, but you with all your crimes against humanity and genocide are proud ?????

Zionist's statistics lie, but common sense doesn't !  I go with common sense.

So what is the reason behind your claim of decrease in Jewish population?  That Israelis don't have balls? Is that why they are offering $10K for a set of balls to Iranians to move there?

What is your point from all these false numbers that don't add up? Is it an excuse to kill as Niloufar wrote?

Ahmadinejad is right on and he knows better. 

You can pay and import low grade balls from around the world into Israel, but with those you will never reproduce such high grade balls like Ahmadinejad's!!! You garduz.

 


jgarbuz

Arafat specifically told Palestinian women to give birth to an

by jgarbuz on

army of martyrs who would retake "Palestine." The cult of martyrdom, so cherished today in Shia Iran, spread to the Arabs thanks to Iranian backing of Hamas. Iran has considerable Jewish blood now on its hands. But I can assure you, no amount or number of children "martyrs" are going to reclaim Jewish land back from us. Those who seek to harm our Jewish children will not see their own spared, if that is what it comes down to. We are not the barbarians. Those who preach the ugly, barbaric concept of "martyrdom" and going to paradise for spilling Jewish blood will end up like Pharaoh in Egypt after the plagues.

We lost 1 million children, including my four year old brother, to Hitler, and we will not see the blood of any more of our children go unavenged. If you wish to spare the lives of all children, best throw your ideas of "martyrdom" into the trashheap of history where it belongs.


jgarbuz

My numbers add up, and anyone can check them.

by jgarbuz on

You and those who continue these anti-Jewish libels are the liars. Anyone can check the population figures of Jews before 1940 and today. Anyone can check the number of Arabs in Palestine and their numbers today. Anyone who bothers to take a little time to check facts and figures can figure out who is lying.

 

The fact is, the Jewish population is still less today than it was 70 years ago. Only in ISrael is the number of Jews growing. But the numbers of Arabs is growing even faster. 

As for the Iran and Iraq war, the next thing you will tell me perhaps is that Jews killed the Prophet's grandson Ali. Yes? Maybe you will tell us next  that we are responsible for the Sunna-Shia schism, eh?  Maybe we  Jews are also responsible for the schism between Catholics and Protestants too, eh? 

The neo-Nazism that drives Islamist ideas today is indeed every bit as frightening as 1938! Perhaps more so, because then Hitler didn't have an atomic bomb, and didn't get one because the Jewish scientists had left in time for Britain and America. Sixty five years later, the Iranians have caught up. Congratulations.

As for Zionism, I am very proud that the Jewish nation has been able by legal means to restore a part of its occupied homeland back to its displaced people who had to live in exile in the lands of others. If you are so concerned for the "Palestinians"  why don't you take them in? Iran is very big country. And a very rich one. Many Persian Jews left Iran, so surely you have the room for them.

As for Saddam, Israel never had nothing to do with him. If anything, only Israel was helping the Kurds for  a while until Kissinger told Israel to stop doing so back in the early '70s. Instead of being so concerned about Israel and the Palestinians, why aren't you equally concerned with the Kurds whose lands are occupied by others? 

Have you ever thought that maybe YOU should start facing the truth?