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Bomb First, Worry Later
29-Aug-2010
In his Atlantic piece designed to elicit an Obama endorsement of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, Jeff Goldberg undermines his case by realistically predicting what the effects of an attack would be.
He predicts thousands of deaths -- not only Iranians but also many Israelis and probably Americans. Oil prices would skyrocket, Jews in the diaspora would come under attack, the United States would be embroiled in the worst Middle East crisis ever, and Israel would become the "leper of nations."
Pretty horrible.
In January, James Phillips, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs at the very hawkish and right-wing Heritage Foundation, produceda strong report which, among other things, describes what an Iranian retaliation to an Israeli attack would look like. Here are the "highlights."
Iran's retaliation for an Israeli strike is likely to be fierce, protracted, and multi-pronged. Iran is likely to bombard Israel with its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles, possibly armed with chemical, biological, or radiological warheads. Such a missile barrage would amount to a terror campaign, similar to the "war of the cities" during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, when the two adversaries launched hundreds of SCUD surface-to-surface missiles at each others' cities....
In addition to direct attacks on Israel, the Tehran regime is likely to launch indirect attacks using a wide variety of surrogate groups, such as Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hamas, all of which are armed with Iranian-supplied rockets.... Hezbollah has received longer-range and more lethal Iranian rockets that would threaten many more Israeli civilians than during the 2006 war.
Iran also has armed Hamas with increasingly sophisticated long-range rockets... capable of striking Tel Aviv, Israel's largest city, from Gaza. Terrorist attacks on Israeli targets outside Israel, as well as against Jewish communities abroad, would also be near-certain....Iran could activate Hezbollah sleeper cells to attack Israeli targets not only in the Middle East, but in South America, North America, Africa, Asia, and Europe.
The Heritage paper also describes the horrific effects an Israeli attack on Iran would have on US interests -- including on our men and women in uniform throughout the region.
But that is for another essay. After all, few of the major proponents of bombing Iran are arguing that it is necessary for US security -- let alone that a bloody blowback against Americans is a risk worth taking. No, at this point, the argument is all about Israel and the threat an Iranian nuclear weapon might pose to it. That is why virtually all the personalities and organizations agitating for war are strongly identified with the Israeli right.
And that is ironic.
Imagine if an American politician declared that it was necessary for the security of the United States that we take an action that would result in missile onslaughts against our cities. Imagine the South Korean government -- which has a truly crazed neighbor next door -- proposing a solution to its security problems that would leave thousands of people in Seoul dead or dying. Imagine the Republic of Georgia deciding that the best way to defend against Russia is by bombing Moscow and then seeing what happens next.
Of course, these scenarios are unimaginable. People who advocate policies that would lead to missile onslaughts against civilians in their own country tend to be dismissed as lunatics -- unless their country is already under attack. (Londoners bravely withstood the blitz that took 50,000 British lives, but they were defending themselves against Hitler, who attacked their island.)
But, in the case of Israel, those who claim to love it most would tolerate mass carnage to preempt a threat that is completely hypothetical.
I am being generous.
Few Israelis, in contrast to the "pro-Israel" organizations here, argue that Iran would use a nuclear weapon. They admit that their concern is that an Iranian bomb would limit Israel's freedom of movement -- in other words, its regional hegemony.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Goldberg that the "real threat" is that an Iranian bomb might cause an Israeli "brain drain," with some Israelis deciding to leave the country for greener pastures abroad.
"Jews know that they can land on their feet in any corner of the world. The real test for us is to make Israel such an attractive place, such a cutting-edge place in human society, education, culture, science, quality of life, that even American Jewish young people want to come here." This vision is threatened by Iran and its proxies, Barak said.
And Goldberg devotes a sizable chunk of his piece arguing that war is inevitable because Netanyahu has to impress his fanatical right-wing and seemingly unhinged 100 year-old father, Ben Zion Netanyahu.
Goldberg writes:
"Always in the back of Bibi's mind is Ben-Zion," one of the prime minister's friends told me. "He worries that his father will think he is weak.
One of Netanyahu's Knesset allies told me, indelicately, though perhaps not inaccurately, that the chance for movement toward the creation of an independent Palestinian state will come only after Ben-Zion's death. "Bibi could not withdraw from more of Judea and Samaria"--the biblical names for the West Bank--"and still look into his father's eyes."
Still look into his father's eyes. Binyamin Netanyahu is 61 years old and the prime minister of his country. And yet he makes life-and-death decisions for the children, women and men of his country based on his need for parental approval. What can one say?
There is no evidence whatsoever that a nuclear-armed Iran would behave any differently than any other country that possesses the bomb. It is no more interested in national suicide than the United States, France, Pakistan or even North Korea.
But the hawks and neocons in Israel and here say, "What if they are suicidal? Then it will be too late."
Well, welcome to the atomic age. Since 1945, every nation on the planet -- and particularly those, like the United States, with nuclear-armed enemies -- have had to live with the possibility that one of their enemies would do something insane. Americans, to put it rather inelegantly, freaked out when they learned that Stalin, a monster who had killed millions of his own countrymen, had the bomb. But only the crazies proposed preemptively bombing the Soviet Union -- or Maoist China, when it got the bomb a decade later.
And why? Mostly because they knew that Americans would not tolerate the mass destruction at home that attacking our enemies would produce, destruction which the advocates of attacking Iran are willing to accept for Israel.
The neocons will respond that Israel is in a uniquely precarious situation. And, they will say that after the Holocaust, Israel has every right to do everything in its power to ensure that the State of Israel survives. I totally agree, and the whole point of Israel's nuclear arsenal is to serve as the ultimate guarantee that no one can attack Israel with the deadliest of weapons.
And that is precisely why smart Israelis, and their friends abroad, must prevent the "bomb Iran" zealots from convincing the United States government that Israel is so helpless and vulnerable that it needs to "Pearl Harbor" Iran. Attacking Iran would begin the terminal unraveling of the Jewish state. What kind of friends would allow that to happen?
You don't destroy the village to save it, especially if the existence of the village is a miracle.
Those who support an Israeli attack on Iran are indistinguishable from Israel's worst enemies. The only difference is that their plans can actually be realized.
First published in HuffingtonPost.com.
AUTHOR
Follow MJ Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/mjmediamatters
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Chalabi thread, Iranian version ! (to KouroshS)
by marhoum Kharmagas on Tue Aug 31, 2010 07:06 AM PDT"You are the one who knows all about how many names i go by here"
KouroshS, one does not need to be smart or spend any energy to realize you and your other IDs have many things in common. As related to this topic, one of them is the Chalabi like thread! You see even Americans, and some of the staunch supporters of Israel are starting to see the common thread (Chalabi thread, Iranian version). After all, it is only less than a decade that they were suckered by Iraqi Chalabis!
BTW, your other ID, KouroshS, is still active, that is why I addressed you as KouroshS! Enjoy this clip from the Pirates of the Caribbean
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EnOjGuQkNs&feature...
The punchline is
"the trick is living with yourself" Doctori!, I could care less that you have multiple IDs.
Simorgh555 and load of
by Dariush A on Tue Aug 31, 2010 07:47 AM PDTSimorgh555 and load of misinformation crap.
Bavafa is right.
Bavafa - Please read
by Simorgh555 on Tue Aug 31, 2010 02:20 AM PDTThis reponse is coming a little late- hope you read it.
American and Iranian hostilities did not begin in the bombin of a US airlines in 1988 as you are well aware. First of all the there is no conclusive evidence whether the tragic shooting down of an Iranian airliner was a deliberate act of agression or negligence on part of the US navy. I was not there, neither were you, so the jury is out.
However, you also seem to forget the other hostile actions of the Occupying Monkey Mafia regime against the US. the bombing of the US barracks in Lebanon in 1983, the hostahe taking and even the current impriosnment of the US hitchikers being held in Iran? Did that escape your radar? To mention nothing of the Friday religious sermons of "Death to America" and the bruning of the American flag which insults the sentiments of normal Americans.
You mentioned America's betrayal of Iran over the lat 60 years. What rubbish! Iran, and just about every country in the Estern himisphere relied on American protection from the Soviets expansaionist policies. Imperial and Soviet Russia have occupied our territory and annexed a large part of it and controlled the governemnt - as they are doing now to a large extent- but the US helped shape Iran's economy, equipped the Iranian army and saved Iran from a catastrophe which was theinvasion of Afgjnaistan.
Iran needed American technologies. I agree that the US bargaining power was greater but the realities were that they had theadvantage which is a natural. This may be a cause for frustration but not the deep seated anger you have towards the US. Just look at civil aeroplanes in Iran crashing because they do not have US made parts.
But I know what you are alluding to - Mossadeq. Mossadeq qas a well intetnioned man but his support was largely from the Islamists and Tudeh. He was old and regularly suffered from fatigue which meant he had to do business literally sitting up in bed and in his pyjamas. He closed down the well confiscated the refnaeies but had no clue what to do next. when he couldn't get his way he did what any other wanna be dictaror does - ask for more power. If the Americans did nothelp overhtrow Mossadeq what would have happened? Imagine if he stayed and died? Does the information whuich you know now not tell you? Do you thinkk Kashani, the Islamists and the Tudeh were going to hold democratic elections?
What complete and utter rubbish! The Americans actually did a SERVICE to Iran by removing Mossadeq.
magasaoghli
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 07:11 PM PDTWait a minute there. You are the one who knows all about how many names i go by here and I end up being the one keeping track of your comments? de inke nemished ke.
I saw your name on one blog and then on another one. did not need to have advaced math skills. Yes yes. I do have many ID's. Please go deep down and dig them up and expose me. LOL. There is a shiny nickle in it for ya.
Dariush.
You are a muslim? yeah Ok.. whatever. As if i can really tell and be sure of that LOL. that was a good one.
Doctor X (WHERE X= .......)
by marhoum Kharmagas on Mon Aug 30, 2010 06:03 PM PDTDoctor X says: "dude. You are there,. you are here, You are everywhere."
I have no problem that you keep track of my comments, which by the way if you know math, you already know they are much much fewer than yours. BUT, you also have had many IDs (e.g., KoroushS, Sheeshaki, Shamsheer, .....) and I am sure still have multiple IDs.
Doctor X
by Dariush A on Tue Aug 31, 2010 06:13 AM PDTYou wrote, I think you are getting Ismael haniyeh and Abbas's status mixed up.
No Doc, I haven't got them mixed up and I don't do Booze. I did Coke for a while, but the bubbles irritated my nose.
You know I am a Muslim. Anything that harms my body is haram. It's that simple.
Doc, i think you are alright. I just wanted to see who is under the sheep skin.
I must go now. But I'll be back.
Boy???
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 03:18 PM PDTI do not worry about you one bit. I have much better things to do,
I think you are getting Ismael haniyeh and Abbas's status mixed up.
You are still ranting and raving and making more accusations such as me "running every country off" something that i am advising and wishing . Get off the booz and then go to your computer and type up stuff.
You have not even clarified what you meant in your previous post. Finish what you started.
Unlike you, I do not Turn my anger at any one particular individual or nation. Only stupid people do that.
Doctor X
by Dariush A on Mon Aug 30, 2010 03:07 PM PDTEasy boy! Don't you worry about me. My head is as clear as it can be.
I cannot blame a devastated and desperate nation for ever for one mistake. Besides, this is not the same Government and leader. There don't seem to be any objection with Mahmoud Abbas Palestinian, But there is plenty with Ismail Haniyeh Palestinian. I wonder why? Oh, yes, one has been elected by the people and the other by US/Israel. .
You can consider Palestine and Lebanon as allies, like Israel and US. They need us now, we might need them tomorrow. If we run every country off as you are advising or wishing, then we will be alone and an easy target.
Human rights are for everyone.
Also, this blog was about bombing Iran by Israel. You should turn your anger at Israel not sacrificing helpless people to the devil.
Bavafa and Darioosh
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 01:43 PM PDTBavafa
I know that. But who went first? did americans Start blowing thing apart palestinian style? Were they the ones who took the initiative to do so? Please don't mix things up.
Stop tormenting my words! All i said was that it was your choice to come here to the west and get educated and be a part of THE INSTITUTION YOU ATTENTED. Where did i give you the impression that you were somehow on a mission to explore the criminal history of various US admins. At various time points based on the education that you got? If that is indeed what you did then Good for you. BUt that was not what i said. Please let me do my exploration on my own time, You can do that can't ya?
In a sense you are not only biting it, you are severing the whole damn thing. You can only make it a better place if others allow you to do so. You can not do it by force.
Darioosh
I am not defending Crimes by any criminal regimes. Don't you use your Bullying crap on me and putting words in my mouth!! Your whole comment is about Rad gom Kardan, Big time. All you did was to accuse me and then you just left it hanging there kinda sorta. You don't even make sense when you say I am defending criminal regimes because they fed me???!!! chi mikhay begi aslan? What regimes? I only spoke of One of them.
You are going a I-am-going-to-stick it-to everyone-while i am at it, rampage here.
Since palestinians committed that horrible crime against our people and took us for fools. they do not deserve a blown-out of proportion sympathy they are getting. We are being asked to devote ourselves to them and their goals. They are helpless? I am sorry there man. So are so many MIllions of others and all of them happen to be muslims too. There are different reasons for their respective helplessness of course, But it is what it is.
Why don't you clear your head first and then come back and we will pick up where we left off. You are fighting too many battles (you are on too many blogs at the same time).
Escape:
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:37 PM PDTWell labeling folks as "Palestinian brothers, etc" is hardly "keeping the truth and sanity on hand"
Perhaps you can spend some time understanding your intention and methods before expressing them so willingly.
Mehrdad
درشهر به ما پیشنهاداتی شد؟
afshinazadMon Aug 30, 2010 12:23 PM PDT
هموطنهای عزیز قبل از اینکه هندیگر را لت و پار بکنید مطمعن باشید که هیچ حمله ای یا بمبارانی نخواهد شد.
تمام اینها برای بیدار نگه داشتن اقای انتری نژاد و اخوندها هستش و اگر قرار باشه حمله ای باشد خوب تمام اینکه ایران نمیدونم بمب باران بشه بعد ایران تمام خاورمیانه را به اتش میکشه. منرا یاد همسایه مینذازه که فقط ادعای کشتن و زدن بود ولی هیچ بخاری نداشت الان این شده مسعله اسرایل و ایران. خوب به فظل اگر جنگی شد و یک مقدار ملت کشته شدند ایا فرقی به حال ایرانیها میکنه چون هرروز که جمهوری خدائی داره صدها ادم را یا تیرباران و یا حلق اویزمیکنه و حالا چه سر اسرایل میاد جهنم و تا زمانیکه این ملخ خورها هستند ملت ما ازادی نخواهد داشت. زمانی که هرروز مادر ما تجاوز میشه با اینوموزدورها حالا یک عده از شما دوستان فکر وطن پرستی افتاده اید. وطن پرستی حذب و سیاست نمی خواهد و اگر ما ابلخی مثل خمینی را اوردیم حالا چقدر سخته که این ملخ را بیرون کردند. من میگم خواهش میکنم ما را بمباران کنید چون ما عرضه هیچی را نداریم و فقط دنبال یک احمقی میگردیم که ما را نجات بده از این زندان بزرگ و من اجازه میدم من را بمبارن کنند چونکه این اگر زندگی است من نخواستم چون حتأ عرضه خودکشی را نیز ندارم.
Well they can't......
by Escape on Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:02 PM PDTIt's a Military Dictatorship.They can't choose their regime in Iran.They can't even protest.
My intention is to keep the truth in mind ok?Keep some sanity on hand.As soon as the words 'Bomb Iran' are in the mix,hysteria follows..
Doctor X
by Dariush A on Mon Aug 30, 2010 12:00 PM PDTNa agha doctor, We are not saying the same thing. You are defending criminal regimes because they have fed you, I am defending a helpless country and feeding them. You say Palestinians betrayed Iran. I agree. We have Iranians who betray Iran for a piece of Apple pie. Not that you have.
Every anti Iran and Iranian here starts his/her comments with freedom,democracy,human rights, love, peace and etc, but soon they come out of their sheep skin and show their real face.
"Tell me about your Palestinian brothers"
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:45 AM PDTIs your intention to have a conversation or just to stroke tension and division?
"So you would let insurgents control your decision"
You have lost me completely here? Is there any insurgency in Iran that I didn't know about?
But since you ask about my decision and if that is regarding to the context of this article, Iran that is… I would think and hope the decision is for Iranians living inside Iran. They need to choose what regime they want to have and what is the price they want to pay for changing it.
Mehrdad
So you would let insurgents control your decision
by Escape on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:32 AM PDTand terrorist's to keep an agressor regime in control..Tell me about your Palestinian brothers,is one of them Abu Nidal?
Escape:yeap, along with hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:29 AM PDTIs this what you have in mind for Iran?
We have an aggressor regime in Iran as well, but this is not an acceptable price to pay for getting ride of them, at least not for me.
Mehrdad
Bavafa where's that agressor now?
by Escape on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:20 AM PDTWhere is Saddam now?
What other way was there to remove him?
Some magical wand?
When innocent civilian are
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:14 AM PDTWhen innocent civilian are killed, they don't care if they were in a bus and were exploded by a suicide belt or when they were on an airliner and were blown out of sky by a navy ship. Both are terrorism one only does it more effectively then the other but equally condemnable.
You said it, I got a higher education and as a result learned and understood some the atrocities committed by this nation. Had you chosen to educate yourself, you would have undoubtedly come to the same conclusion.
And no I am not biting the hand that fed me… this is my new home and I am using my education to make it a better place, one person at the time.
Mehrdad
eee
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:44 AM PDTeee
Bavafa
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:42 AM PDTOhhh. Take it easy now.
Fairness, Justice and Logic were all flused down the toilet the moment the first CAR BOMB f... exploded killing innocent civilians or when they were on the bus.
You never complained when these same ugly beasts Let you in to their country and gave you a chance to get an education, become a part of an institution of higher education here in the west, did you? You were not being loud and demanding to see logic and fairness back then. So why all of a sudden changing gears?
LOGIC dictates that had you felt that you had been wronged by such misbigotten and ill-devised policies and wanted to show how much you hate the country that was behind the invasion and was the real player in all this, You would not have applied for a visa and permission to enter. It was that simple.
are we doing the "biting the hand that fed you" kinda thing here or what?
Dariushe Kabeer
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:36 AM PDTLOL
Khob mage man chi goftam? manam hamino migam dige baradar.
The only thing that gets on my craw is the fact that Our Dear friend Bavafa is being rather unfair towards The US admin. and puts them solely on the spot. Let's be fair. We were betrayed by our Palestinian brothers and they were not there when we needed them.
Well,
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:28 AM PDTYou ask your American/Israeli brothers and I ask my Palestinian brothers. We will see if any of us will get a response that has 2 cents worth of logic, fairness and justice in it.
Mehrdad
Doctor X
by Dariush A on Mon Aug 30, 2010 09:27 AM PDTYou know better than that. It had nothing to do with helping. They gave arms to both sides for ten times the cost for huge profits and at the same time getting us to kill each others as many as possible. Hitting two birds with one stone. For us it was about the risks. For them it was about the rewards/profits.
Bavafa
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 09:25 AM PDTCan one fix a wrong doing with yet another wrong doing?
In this case, Americans promoted themselves from the backer of an aggressor to be the aggressor themselves.
Mehrdad
LOL! Good point. Why don't you ask your Palsetinian brothers that same exact question?
Bavafa
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 09:21 AM PDTNo, It is not cool, But it has been this way for a long time as far as we can recall. Do you deny that?
You do not have a case when you place the blame on US solely and Give palestinian's a free pass. There is a difference here, one that you and your like-minded fellows always intentionally ignore.
Instigation and provocation of conflicts is the only Legitimate case you have here. That is all.
Doctor X:
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 08:52 AM PDTSo, are you saying that it is cool that Americans gave arms to both sides to kill each other?
Based on your confirmation, it looks like I do have a case here, that is Americans instigate smaller countries to fight each other just to protect America's interest.
Mehrdad
Oh yea,
by Bavafa on Mon Aug 30, 2010 08:39 AM PDTCan one fix a wrong doing with yet another wrong doing?
In this case, Americans promoted themselves from the backer of an aggressor to be the aggressor themselves.
Mehrdad
Bavafa
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 08:34 AM PDTOne wonders how Iran supported itself and Procured Arms and equipments had it not been for these mean and bad and ugly americans? Hmm. Just making a wild guess there: Somalaia? Afghanistan? Cuz heck, even if that was the case, guess what hell hole they had got their goodies from!!!
THe US has been involved in selling arms all over the world for centuries, So you really have no case here. They have sold it to freedom fighters, the dictators who beat the crap out of them, all alike. So where is the beef and what is your problem?
So don't undermine the significance of Their (arabs) betrayal towards iran, by overmagnifying The US and its role in Various world conflicts.
Oh yea
by Escape on Mon Aug 30, 2010 08:27 AM PDTAnd it was a horde of Iranian's crying in dismay when American's removed Saddam Hussein with endless bitching about the War.
Marhoom jan Stone-throwing again?
by Doctor X on Mon Aug 30, 2010 08:26 AM PDTdude. You are there,. you are here, You are everywhere. Nakone You have become the Sooopoor man?
As if you are not Committed to any "different" country your own dear , shiny cheek self? Show us your lack of committment by "jam kardane basat" and going back to vaaalaaayat.