Don't Bother

An agreement with the mullahs would be not worth the paper it is written on

Share/Save/Bookmark

Don't Bother
by Hossein Askari
03-Dec-2010
 

It seems that the on-again, off-again meeting between the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Lady Catherine Ashton, and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, is on again in Geneva for December 6-7. The talks with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are expected to last two days to afford "sufficient time for a full and in-depth exchange of views," according to excerpts from the invitation letter to Iran. The Obama administration and its European allies appear to be champing at the bit to talk with Iran regarding a range of matters, but especially about putting a halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment and presumed weapons program. This past Wednesday saw U.S. officials even holding out the promise of more economic support for Iran. The Iranians, on the other hand, are still playing hard to get and say that they are willing to talk about anything except their nuclear-enrichment program.

First some facts and then a different vision of how to deal with the mullahs.

The Obama administration has little or no comprehension of the mindset of those who are in control behind the scenes in Iran. U.S. officials and their advisers have hardly had any meaningful engagement with them. These street-smart Iranians are nowhere to be seen in public. In their mindset, the United States is weak and wants an agreement with Iran at any cost whereas they, the Iranians, hold all the cards. To them, Europeans, for example the French, are even weaker; Iranian intelligence operatives were laughing when they got the French authorities to release an Iranian who was being held for the murder of a former Iranian prime minister in France! These shadowy Iranians have contempt for weakness. The willy-nilly ratcheting up of sanctions further supports their beliefs of U.S. indecisiveness and weakness. Although Washington has numerous ways to make the sanctions truly “crippling,” it has declined to do so on the premise that the average Iranian may suffer too much. When have realists lost sleep over the sufferings of average Iranians? The Iranian authorities know that they will not be attacked because: a United States that is unwilling to adopt effective sanctions will not take military action against them; U.S. hands are tied in Afghanistan and in Iraq; although Israel is the only real military threat, America is unwilling to give Israel carte blanche because things could go horribly wrong; and Washington has learned the painful lesson of the Iran-Iraq War if nothing else, that is, if Iran is attacked, then Iranians will rally behind the mullahs.

In today’s Iran the plain truth is that the regime is unpopular as never before. The only supporters of the regime are those who receive direct benefits from their association, including: a minority of clerics (since the devout have long divorced themselves from the likes of Khamenei), the Revolutionary Guards, the Baseej, the intelligence services, the families of “martyrs” who receive regular subsidies and businessmen who are directly connected to regime insiders, all told about five million out of a population of 75 million. The average Iranian no longer supports the regime because: their economic condition has become intolerable and they have no hope of improvement; income disparities have grown since the Shah’s reign; Iranian citizens have fewer personal freedoms than under the Shah; dissidents are treated much more harshly than they ever were under the Shah; and many feel ashamed of where Iran finds itself today, especially in comparison to Persian Gulf Arabs who have historically been regarded as inferior but whom Iranians today envy. And importantly, the majority of Iranians have become totally disenchanted by the entire apparatus of their clerical regime. They see how their religion has become perverted and brutal. They see the devout clerics distancing themselves from the political mullahs. There is a forced religiosity in the today’s Iran and far less religious freedom than there was under the Shah. The clerical regime has brought severe costs, such as economic mismanagement, brutality and religious pretensions, and no tangible benefits. Reminiscences about the Shah’s regime are becoming increasingly frequent and nostalgic.

The clerics and their supporters believe that the United States is bent on getting rid of them and that their best hope for long-term survival is the nuclear program, which they cannot abandon.

Realists in America and in Europe know that the real problem is not Iran’s nuclear quest but its regime. An agreement with the mullahs would be not worth the paper it is written on. The regime with nuclear capabilities will be many times worse than it is the regime of today.

For the imagined “average” Iranian what is better? An attack on Iran (and covert operations in Iran by the United States) to overthrow the regime? Cooperation between Tehran and Washington? Or all-out pressure on the regime with crippling sanctions in the hope to overthrow it?

A military attack on Iran (and covert operations that could be exposed) is not in the interest of anyone, Iranians or the West. Simply said, the regime will receive widespread support, thus increasing its lease on life. Cooperation with the mullahs would reduce pressure as the economic noose would somewhat loosen, in turn affording the clerics more room for maneuver and more domestic support.

The real hope for average Iranians is the third approach—crippling sanctions (on Iran’s central bank, stiffer U.S. fines on those who circumvent sanctions and measures to initiate a run on the Iranian currency) coupled with a demand that the regime respect human rights and free elections, including free elections for a change in the constitution (demands that would enrage the regime but hearten average Iranians), all in the hope of toppling the clerical regime at the hands of the Iranian people. Why won’t the United States adopt such an approach? For sheer lack of will. It’s that simple. However, the reasons given are two—the average Iranian will suffer “too much” and nothing will succeed in overthrowing the Tehran regime.

These are manufactured reasons. The average Iranian hopes for a better future, but there is no hope as long as the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards are in charge. Average Iranians cannot cope with the economic pressures of their daily lives. It is my deeply held belief that they would rather suffer a little more if there were a reasonable chance that mass demonstrations might ensue and that the regime might be overthrown. Most rational people anywhere in the world would choose the same rather than suffer for the foreseeable future.

Will there be mass demonstrations, will they lead to massacre at the hands of the Baseej and to the regime’s downfall? I believe that all of the above are likely. Iran is ripe for street protests the likes of which this regime has not seen. In the face of such protests the bazaaris and other rich merchants with close links to the regime will in all likelihood shut down their businesses, further damaging the frail economy. The regime’s thugs, the Baseej, especially those from outside Tehran, will at first kill demonstrators at will. These developments will contrast the “brutality and un-Islamic” behavior of the mullahs to the “humanity and Islamic” behavior of the Shah! Soon the protests would spread into other cities and become so massive that clerics, with the exception of a few around Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guards (who effectively control the Baseej) will throw in their lot with the protesters in their quest to survive. There will be pain and much turmoil but that is the nature of the beast.

The indicated policies are clear. All the U.S. administration needs is political will to support the people of Iran in their struggle for freedom, human rights, a say in governance and a better future for all Iranians.

First published in nationalinterest.org

AUTHOR
Hossein Askari is Iran Professor of International Business and professor of international affairs at the George Washington University.

Share/Save/Bookmark

 
seannewyork

rapprochement with terrorists and rapists

by seannewyork on

are you nuts thinking at the US should have rapprochement with rapists.  The regime is not accepted by the iranian people, they are not legitimate. 


Shutruk

The Iran "experts" and the neocons

by Shutruk on

 

Iranian-Americans shouldn't fall this pro-neocon propaganda which is aimed at sabotaging any hope of U.S-Iran dialog and rapprochement.  Askari speaks for nobody except himself and his sponsors. Anything written by him is a waste of web space.


seannewyork

another article by Askari

by seannewyork on

I just found this new article by Askari,

 he is spot on again:

 

//nationalinterest.org/commentary/wasting-lady-ashtons-time-4513


seannewyork

not sure how one is anti iranian if they want regime gone

by seannewyork on

i am in tehran now and have sent this to many people and they all agree with the article.  the regime  needs to go and people who want the regime gone without war are actually pro iranian and pro iranian people.

 Well done Hoessin Askari for standing up for the iranian people.

Some of you want to keep the pressure off the regime and keep filling up the central bank so the can use the money to oppress Iranians.

Free IRan.


marhoum Kharmagas

If it hits the fan (yes, jenaabe Mola)

by marhoum Kharmagas on

"Well, Al Qaeda will try to separate Balushestan, Pezak (the terrorist
Kurdish organization and company) will try to separate Kurdestan,
reactionary regime of Azabaijan will try to take Iran's Azarbaijan,
Saudies united with other reactionary Arab rulers will try to take
Khozestan, etc.
Iranians are surrounded by sharks and cannot afford to have a violent
revolution that would make their central government weak at
this juncture of their history and they know it well.
"

Indeed jenaabe Mola, if the the $H!+ hits the fan, it will not hit people such as Hossein agha, and many other zertekies who advocate sanctions while living in the  U.S, Europe, ...etc. ..... well I should say at least in short term these zertekies will not get hit.


Shutruk

Askari believes what he *wants* to believe

by Shutruk on

 

It really amazes me how these Iranian "academics" based in the United States even try to given the impression that they care about the Iranian people. Askari  wants to punish ordinary Iranians with sanctions and other means for refusing to accept a pro-American regime that does not do his masters' bidding.

The Iranian people, however, reject Askari's treachery and support an independent, dynamic and powerful Iran as is evidenced by numerous polls conducted by organizations in the West itself:

 //www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/652.php?lb=brme&pnt=652&nid=&id=

But let Askari and others wallow in their own delusion and folie de grandeur in the belief that they people of Iran will revolt in support of the royalists, communists,separatists and marxists, bahais and others who are in self-imposed exile and are subservient to their western sponsors.


Fred

Airtight sanctions NOW

by Fred on

"The real hope for average Iranians is the third approach—crippling sanctions (on Iran’s central bank, stiffer U.S. fines on those who circumvent sanctions and measures to initiate a run on the Iranian currency) coupled with a demand that the regime respect human rights and free elections, including free elections for a change in the constitution (demands that would enrage the regime but hearten average Iranians), all in the hope of toppling the clerical regime at the hands of the Iranian people. "


G. Rahmanian

IR Supporters' Logic خوشا به حال انكه كوساله امد و كاو رفت

G. Rahmanian


Such logic dictates that, no matter what, you should never revisit or rethink your ideas regardless of any changes in conditions or circumstances which led to the formation of such ideas!P.S. I only have Arabic fonts. I can't type "gaaf."


Simorgh5555

Good article

by Simorgh5555 on

I am not interested in party politics in the USA - for a start, it's not my country - so I am judgigng Obama by his approach to foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic. The author's assessment of the  Obama administration is correct; he is completely out of touch with reality and is clueless on how to approach the Mullah's intransigence. For a start the focus of the Obama and even previous administrations has been the 'nuclear option'. This is wrong for two reasons: 1) Because the Islamic Republic has been a threat to its regional members including Israel and has been a destructive force in Iraq and Afghanistan where the latest news is that half the Afghan politicians are under their payroll. The Islamic Republic has a long criminal record for the past thirty years including assasination of dissidents and politcal opponents in Germany, USA, Spain, turkey  UK and France including explosion and damage of property; It has been resposnbile for taking Westerners as hostages by using its Lebanese Hezbollah alllies and also targetting American military barracks; it is responsibe for the creation and proliferation of Lebanese Hezbollah and providing them with military and polotical support in its fight with Israel; it has sponsored Fatah and Hamas which has used Iranian money to carry out militant activities in the occupied territories as well as outside Israel. to use the words of Benjamin Netanyahu (a man who I do not admire), "Nothing short of  Regime Change will do".

The problem with the Obama administration and previous administration was its misguided allocation of resources in attacking Iraq whilst not focusing on the real Middle East threat which is the Islamic Republic.

Furthermore, even if the Europeans and the Americans want to engage in dialogue with the Islamic Republic the one non-negotiable pre-condition should be, and always should have been, its human rights issue.  The Obama adminsitration has shown it has cared very little about human right in Iran as evident in his reaction to Neda agha Soltani's death which he called,"I'm not hinting. I think that when a young woman gets shot on the street when she gets out of her car, that's a problem..This is somwthing unjust"

Unjust? This was a murder of a young Iranian by the hands of a wicked terrorist regime. Obama must be quicker to condemn the human right issues. After all the olive brances, gestures of goodwill, wishing the Iran Happy Noruz (he even got that wrong by saying in Arabic "Eid Mobarak", the terrorist regime has hit back at Obama continuing its malign terrorist influence  in Iraq and Afghnaistan, making alliances in South America, Malaysia and Indonesia. They have grown their network of influence whilst at the same time crushing free political expression and human rights at home. I agree with the Molla Nasradeen that the IR are street smart and clever, but so are rats. Just because I admire them for their ingenuity doesn't make them any less of a pestilence on the international scene. Its time for the Obama adminsitration to wake up and to speak the only language the Islamic Republic understands: Violence. 

NOTHING SHORT OF REGIME CHANGE WILL DO. It must tighten sactions,use strategic military force and equip an Iranian Lieberation Army to finish off these terrorist ocupiers of our Great Land. 

 


Mola Nasredeen

3 differences between Revolution against Shah and the Green

by Mola Nasredeen on

movement in Iran: 

1. Shah was the sole dictator. When the head of the regime was cut the whole system collapsed. The Islamic regime of Iran is not like that. The Shia clerics' collective (Velayat Fagheh) who has the executive economic and military powers rules Iran now. They are well organized through thousands of mosques in every single community inside Iran. They can call their followers to action very quickly.

If you cut one head there are still many more ready to replace it. Mojahdin already tried to change the regime by killing them during the early 1980s but they failed. They killed hundreds of clerics and pasdars but regime survived.

2. Iranians have been through uprising, war and hardship. They've had enough. They are in no mood to go through such a huge upheaval again. Politically, Iranians are at least half century ahead of their neighbors. They have observed the going ons in Afghanistan and Iraq. Iranian will never wish that for themselves. They are wise ancient people. 

3. For better or worse the Iranian revolution has created a new middle class who used to belong to the lower class. Many defenders of the present Iranian regime belong to this newly created class. They'll fight nail and tooth to keep this regime and hence their own position . Shah never had sucha dedicated followers.


Demo

Mola "Shah"

by Demo on

Based on our own Mola's comment Shah himself was a Mola who had the exact scary senarios in his chant for the country break up into pieces if he ever left the power!!The history repeats itself. Does'nt it?


Mola Nasredeen

BDL,

by Mola Nasredeen on

Without a strong central government Iran will be divided into many pieces. How you may ask?

Well, Al Qaeda will try to separate Balushestan, Pezak (the terrorist Kurdish organization and company) will try to separate Kurdestan, reactionary regime of Azabaijan will try to take Iran's Azarbaijan, Saudies united with other reactionary Arab rulers will try to take Khozestan, etc. 

Iranians are surrounded by sharks and cannot afford to have a violent revolution that would make their central government weak at this juncture of their history and they know it well.  


Tavana

The Dark Side of "Green Q"

by Tavana on

First Dr. Askari had every right to "change his mind" after he discovered/saw the dark side of "Mola" Khamenie during & after the manipulated elections of 2 years ago. That is for that. Now let's see what real color is underneath of "Green" thing by examining Q's own notes below:

"You can be a heartless traitor who is gladly sacrificing other people's
lives for your own cause. We don't have a shortage of such morons in
the Iranian community and of course they are well represented on IC.
It's a matter of your value system. Some people just don't care about
Iranians, only their own bankrupt fantasies
." 

Very good. Now did not Mola Khomeini sacrifie a great number of both Iraq's & Iranian's lives for his own cause during 8 years Iran-Iraq war (Not to mention killings of thousands of Kurds among many other unexplained "Iranians" executions)???  Did not Mola Khamenie order Basijiis/Pasdars to kill the protesters in the streets 2 years ago for his own cause??? Therefor both are "heartless traitors" (according to the above) who we were also morons who did not care about Iranians, only their own bankrupt fantasies (to rule the world, might add)."

"as well as the clown-troop of anonymous cowards littering cyberspace" 

Very nice. Such "cmpliments!!" are indeed taught by the con-man himself on Q's avatar who can not take any criticism of "Velayat" system from anybody whosoever.

"attacking anonymous peanut gallery below"

Thank you. Such responses are straight from IRI agents/fans who have been left with no healthy cells in their brains to argue with logically & have been losing all their "credibilities" along with their masters "Molas" in power for so long.


bushtheliberator

dear Mola, I share your scepticism

by bushtheliberator on

 If this happy vision of a semi-bloodless democratic revolution were to come true,I'd be glad to spring for the ice-cream, and party hats.

But if it devolves into civil war,I may not be able to cover the cost of the body bags.

 

 


Mola Nasredeen

Shazdeh, The ones who were writing "how to make

by Mola Nasredeen on

cocktail molotof to attack the Iranian police and basijis" while were residing outside of Iran but upon going back to Iran sat down and got high on opium are the liers, pretenders and hypocrites.

Remember what you wrote during the demonstrations in Iran? Remember you were writing how to make fire bombs and attack security forces? But according to your own writing and memoire while you were in Iran you sat down and smoked opium and went partying and eating chelokabab.

Remember, you remember! Why didn't you go on the streets and throw fire bombs at the police, basijis and pasdars?

Now, you sit on your comfortable easy chair and play the part of a 'Revolutionary'.

Jallal Khalegh!


Q

now THATS funny Shazde,

by Q on

Actually, I was mainly attacking anonymous peanut gallery below who suggested that the Dr. has "changed his mind since 2007". A typical hate-blinded overreaction to my mild criticism of the piece -- it is very mild considering the genocide that it advocates.

Quit attacking the writer

However, we all have to admit, that given your long and illustrious history of not attacking writers yourself and coming to the aid of other distinguished writers who get personally attacked by anonymous cowards... your objection to "vicious character assassination" specifically, had me rolling on the floor for 15 minutes!!!

When it comes to your own integrity on this particular issue, you are selling yourself short Shazde jan!

Selling yourself merely short when you're actually microscopic.


Roozbeh_Gilani

A very good article and I agree with Mr. Askari

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

In my experience, apart from the few gullible liberals, the people who constantly howl and complain about the Sanctions are either the ones on Islamist regime's payroll or well off merchants with import export  interests with Iran. The average Iranian has been suffering from increasingly crippling economical conditions under the corrupt, incompetent and thieving islamist regime  with or without sanctions

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


Shazde Asdola Mirza

Hey, don't call me unfunny ... that's not funny!

by Shazde Asdola Mirza on

Quit attacking the writer with your vicious character assassination. Everybody can revise their position and change their minds. Hey, you can use some revision too!


Q

Shazdeh, don't be an unfunny loudmouth, knee-jerker

by Q on

I'm surprised you'are against IRI, you seem to be in love with generic mindless slogans.

I'm not sure who you're talking about in your comment, but since you mention my name in the subject, I thought I respond accordingly.

 


Shazde Asdola Mirza

Q don't be a hypocrite, a liar and a traitor

by Shazde Asdola Mirza on

The person who sacrifices the Iranian people at the alter of IRI is a hypocrite.

The leftist who sells his yesterday's ideals to the Islamist terrorists, is a liar.

The imbecile who betrays the true aspirations of the Iranian people, is a traitor.


Hoshang Targol

Overthrowing of Islamic Republic of Hell

by Hoshang Targol on

by an organized populace through a, mostly non-violent, general strike ( the way we did it in 1979) IS THE ONLY WAY FROWARD FOR IRANIAN PEOPLE AT THE MOMENT.

Mola you don't know me, and I don't know you, suffice it to say I never expected to live this long, never forget: death is only but a transition.

[marde neko nam namirad hargz, mordeh an ast keh namash beh nekoiy  nabarand]

 

On the non-personal side, the only reason IR has been able to last this long is basically due to three factors:

1) Oil money,

2) Lack of an effective opposition,

3) Incredible level of violence.

And all  three are coming to an abrupt end.

Annual budget deficits ( hence the most urgent need to eliminate all subsidies), emergence of a new type of opposition ( mainly thanks to IR's own misatke, thank you midget monkey!) and ineffectiveness of violence as a strategic mean of crisis control(toop, tank, basiji digar asar nadard!), Onward towards 16 Azar.

 

P.S. You still haven't told us: what's the difference between you, Q, NP, NF, and all other, idiots supporting IR 24/7 in here?cheers

 


Q

winds change, politics change, values don't

by Q on

Unless of course we are dealing with hypocrites. 

Sanctions lead to suffering and death. "Crippling sanctions" criple children, destroy civil services, medical system. And also they don't work, they don't change regimes and they don't prevent wars.

There is no argument here, no one -- but idiots and fools -- can deny this. //www.commondreams.org/headlines/072100-03.htm

You can be a heartless traitor who is gladly sacrificing other people's lives for your own cause. We don't have a shortage of such morons in the Iranian community and of course they are well represented on IC. It's a matter of your value system. Some people just don't care about Iranians, only their own bankrupt fantasies.

But you can't say that you have "changed your mind" on an issue this big in just a few years. This is a matter of values about human life. You either never believed it, or you are a hypocrite or just what we called "hezbe baadi". This appears to be the case for the good Dr. Askari, as well as the clown-troop of anonymous cowards littering cyberspace.


seannewyork

he is correct

by seannewyork on

those of you standing up for the regime are anti iran.

 you cant negotiate with rapists.  dictator is khamenei, rafsanjani, and ahmadi.

a free iran by the people for the people


Mola Nasredeen

Targol,

by Mola Nasredeen on

Yes! 'this midget monkey' as you call is ready to die for his beliefs' for better or worse. But are you? Of course not, I'm not either. And there are millions more like him in Iran that's what many exiles don't understand. The Islamic Republic of Iran is organized, they have the money, they have the numbers and they have the experience of war. Don't understimate them they are not bluffing when they stand up to United States.

And you say: " The "official" minimum wage in Iran is a 1/3 of the poverty line. With a minimum wage like that, exactly what the phuck do you expect the people to do? Consent to a slow motion death."

I ask you: why don't they get up and run on the streets? What is that going to accomplish for them? Iranians are an ancient people, they are wise and know when to start a revolution and when not too. Any overthrow of the IRI at the present moment will result more misery,war and dismemberment of the nation.


Sargord Pirouz

Wait, I thought it was the

by Sargord Pirouz on

Wait, I thought it was the IRGC that was running the show, not the so-called "Mullahs". Or wasn't Ahmadinejad supposed to be the dictator everyone was marg bar'n about?

I wish these anti-Iran folks would make up their minds. 


Hoshang Targol

Mola, even your shotor knows

by Hoshang Targol on

elimination of subsidies in Iran has nothing to do with sanctions. Since Rafsanjani, Khatemi and now this clown they all have wanted to eliminate all subsidies and none had the balls to do it. This midget monkey thinks he has the balls, very soon he'll be eating them!

According to IR's own Center for Statestics Iran has 40,000,000 million people living under poverty line. This is in Iran, one of the more resourcefull countirs on earth. The "official" minimum wage in Iran is a 1/3 of the poverty line. With a minimum wage like that, exactly what the phuck do you expect the people to do? Consent to a slow motion death.

 

P.S. What's the difference between you, Q, NP, NF, and all other pathetic, idiots supporting IR 24/7 in here?cheers


Tavana

While Q Was Sleep W/Green Dreams

by Tavana on

From the Askari's linked publication in April 2007 till the one posted here in Dec. 2010, i.e. 3 years, a lot has happened in the homeland. Meanwhile, however, the "Green" con-artist in Q's avatar had been wandering on Mola's avatar in the "Vegha-hat'e Safeeh" dark & bloodish era to reach the rainbow like "mirage" of "reforms for a change at last." 


Manam_Babak

Q you need to go back to your masters,

by Manam_Babak on

Seating at a negotiation table with Mullas is just as stupid as Q's comments. Mullas are as good as gone, it is not the question of if, rather when.


Q

What happened to Hossein Askari?

by Q on

Askari,

 

You used to be quite reasonable when you were writing for Antiwar.com. //www.antiwar.com/orig/askari.php?articleid=1...

First,
engage Iran in a dialogue with no preconditions. Second, discuss all bilateral
and regional issues with Iran and embrace policies to better integrate Iran
into the world economy so that it has demonstrably more to lose by continued
isolation.
Third, accept Iran's right to peaceful nuclear enrichment with the
understanding that Iran will agree to a number of safeguards (including the
most intrusive inspections to date) to guarantee, as much as humanly possible,
that it will not develop nuclear warheads. 

 

 

Now your call for "crippling sanctions" makes you just another US-residing hypocrite who has decided other people's misery and sacrifice is worth your mindless calls for another revolution. What a shame.