Don't Bother

An agreement with the mullahs would be not worth the paper it is written on

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Don't Bother
by Hossein Askari
03-Dec-2010
 

It seems that the on-again, off-again meeting between the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Lady Catherine Ashton, and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, is on again in Geneva for December 6-7. The talks with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany are expected to last two days to afford "sufficient time for a full and in-depth exchange of views," according to excerpts from the invitation letter to Iran. The Obama administration and its European allies appear to be champing at the bit to talk with Iran regarding a range of matters, but especially about putting a halt to Iran’s nuclear enrichment and presumed weapons program. This past Wednesday saw U.S. officials even holding out the promise of more economic support for Iran. The Iranians, on the other hand, are still playing hard to get and say that they are willing to talk about anything except their nuclear-enrichment program.

First some facts and then a different vision of how to deal with the mullahs.

The Obama administration has little or no comprehension of the mindset of those who are in control behind the scenes in Iran. U.S. officials and their advisers have hardly had any meaningful engagement with them. These street-smart Iranians are nowhere to be seen in public. In their mindset, the United States is weak and wants an agreement with Iran at any cost whereas they, the Iranians, hold all the cards. To them, Europeans, for example the French, are even weaker; Iranian intelligence operatives were laughing when they got the French authorities to release an Iranian who was being held for the murder of a former Iranian prime minister in France! These shadowy Iranians have contempt for weakness. The willy-nilly ratcheting up of sanctions further supports their beliefs of U.S. indecisiveness and weakness. Although Washington has numerous ways to make the sanctions truly “crippling,” it has declined to do so on the premise that the average Iranian may suffer too much. When have realists lost sleep over the sufferings of average Iranians? The Iranian authorities know that they will not be attacked because: a United States that is unwilling to adopt effective sanctions will not take military action against them; U.S. hands are tied in Afghanistan and in Iraq; although Israel is the only real military threat, America is unwilling to give Israel carte blanche because things could go horribly wrong; and Washington has learned the painful lesson of the Iran-Iraq War if nothing else, that is, if Iran is attacked, then Iranians will rally behind the mullahs.

In today’s Iran the plain truth is that the regime is unpopular as never before. The only supporters of the regime are those who receive direct benefits from their association, including: a minority of clerics (since the devout have long divorced themselves from the likes of Khamenei), the Revolutionary Guards, the Baseej, the intelligence services, the families of “martyrs” who receive regular subsidies and businessmen who are directly connected to regime insiders, all told about five million out of a population of 75 million. The average Iranian no longer supports the regime because: their economic condition has become intolerable and they have no hope of improvement; income disparities have grown since the Shah’s reign; Iranian citizens have fewer personal freedoms than under the Shah; dissidents are treated much more harshly than they ever were under the Shah; and many feel ashamed of where Iran finds itself today, especially in comparison to Persian Gulf Arabs who have historically been regarded as inferior but whom Iranians today envy. And importantly, the majority of Iranians have become totally disenchanted by the entire apparatus of their clerical regime. They see how their religion has become perverted and brutal. They see the devout clerics distancing themselves from the political mullahs. There is a forced religiosity in the today’s Iran and far less religious freedom than there was under the Shah. The clerical regime has brought severe costs, such as economic mismanagement, brutality and religious pretensions, and no tangible benefits. Reminiscences about the Shah’s regime are becoming increasingly frequent and nostalgic.

The clerics and their supporters believe that the United States is bent on getting rid of them and that their best hope for long-term survival is the nuclear program, which they cannot abandon.

Realists in America and in Europe know that the real problem is not Iran’s nuclear quest but its regime. An agreement with the mullahs would be not worth the paper it is written on. The regime with nuclear capabilities will be many times worse than it is the regime of today.

For the imagined “average” Iranian what is better? An attack on Iran (and covert operations in Iran by the United States) to overthrow the regime? Cooperation between Tehran and Washington? Or all-out pressure on the regime with crippling sanctions in the hope to overthrow it?

A military attack on Iran (and covert operations that could be exposed) is not in the interest of anyone, Iranians or the West. Simply said, the regime will receive widespread support, thus increasing its lease on life. Cooperation with the mullahs would reduce pressure as the economic noose would somewhat loosen, in turn affording the clerics more room for maneuver and more domestic support.

The real hope for average Iranians is the third approach—crippling sanctions (on Iran’s central bank, stiffer U.S. fines on those who circumvent sanctions and measures to initiate a run on the Iranian currency) coupled with a demand that the regime respect human rights and free elections, including free elections for a change in the constitution (demands that would enrage the regime but hearten average Iranians), all in the hope of toppling the clerical regime at the hands of the Iranian people. Why won’t the United States adopt such an approach? For sheer lack of will. It’s that simple. However, the reasons given are two—the average Iranian will suffer “too much” and nothing will succeed in overthrowing the Tehran regime.

These are manufactured reasons. The average Iranian hopes for a better future, but there is no hope as long as the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards are in charge. Average Iranians cannot cope with the economic pressures of their daily lives. It is my deeply held belief that they would rather suffer a little more if there were a reasonable chance that mass demonstrations might ensue and that the regime might be overthrown. Most rational people anywhere in the world would choose the same rather than suffer for the foreseeable future.

Will there be mass demonstrations, will they lead to massacre at the hands of the Baseej and to the regime’s downfall? I believe that all of the above are likely. Iran is ripe for street protests the likes of which this regime has not seen. In the face of such protests the bazaaris and other rich merchants with close links to the regime will in all likelihood shut down their businesses, further damaging the frail economy. The regime’s thugs, the Baseej, especially those from outside Tehran, will at first kill demonstrators at will. These developments will contrast the “brutality and un-Islamic” behavior of the mullahs to the “humanity and Islamic” behavior of the Shah! Soon the protests would spread into other cities and become so massive that clerics, with the exception of a few around Khamenei, and the Revolutionary Guards (who effectively control the Baseej) will throw in their lot with the protesters in their quest to survive. There will be pain and much turmoil but that is the nature of the beast.

The indicated policies are clear. All the U.S. administration needs is political will to support the people of Iran in their struggle for freedom, human rights, a say in governance and a better future for all Iranians.

First published in nationalinterest.org

AUTHOR
Hossein Askari is Iran Professor of International Business and professor of international affairs at the George Washington University.

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LoverOfLiberty

Mola,

by LoverOfLiberty on

Mola: "There are no documents or evidence from any credible sources including CIA that Iran is planning to produce atomic weapon. The 2007 NIE's report completed by 16 U.S. intelligent departments who had announced Iran was not trying to make nuclear weapon." 

The following is part of what the 2007 NIE on Iran actually stated:

A. We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program1; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.


• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.


• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (Because of intelligence gaps discussed elsewhere in this Estimate, however, DOE and the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.)


• We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.


• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.


• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.

Source: //www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release...

So, if someone is going to reference the 2007 NIE regarding Iran, then, at minimum, that person should cite what that report actually stated.


shushtari

very well written....

by shushtari on

I agree with many of the points dr askari....

 

the mullahs will be gone soon, that is a fact 


Shutruk

Bi-Hoosh-ang

by Shutruk on

 

Sub-standard cars? I wouldn't call the Samand, Soren or Runna "sub-standard": they have some of the most efficient engines in the world for CNG and duel-fuel powertrains.. There are still some shitty paykans on the streets, but the smog is there because the metropolis is too big - 14 million people  live in or around Tehran.

Once again, we have an Iranian attacking the achievement of the Iranian people - in the automobile industry .


Hoshang Targol

Shotorak you're full of قرائت فاشیستی

Hoshang Targol


those sub-standard cars you proudly refer to are causing the worst smog and air pollution in Tehran, Isfahan and many other cities in Iran. Not sure which planet you're living in but back here on Earth in the  cities of Tehran, Isfahan,... all official activites were canceled for two days, a ritual on the increase. How many relatives do you have in Tehran that have had heart attacks because of the quality of the air?

____________________________________________________________________

And if you think all this talk about fascism in Iran is from abroad take a look at this statement issued today by students INSIDE IRAN, it refers to "the fascist reading of religion" who do you think it's referign to?

عالین دانشجویی دانشگاه خواجه
نصیرالدین طوسی هم در بیانیه ای گفتند: "ما جمعی از دانشجویان همیشه بیدار
دانشگاه خواجه نصیر اعلام می داریم تا آزادی میلاد اسدی، شرف و آبروی
دانشگاه خواجه نصیر از پای نخواهیم نشست و تا آخرین نفس در جهت نابودی
استبداد دینی و زوال قرائت فاشیستی خواهیم جنگید و این کاخ استبداد را
ویران خواهیم کرد."
همچنین دانشجویان دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد و دانشگاه علم صنعت با دیوارنویسی و
پخش تصاویر شهدای جنبش سبز فضای امنیتی و سرکوب را به تمسخر گرفته و آمادگی
خود را برای حضور در مراسم اعتراضی ١٦ آذر اعلام کرده اند.


Fesenjoon

"worth the paper"? hah....

by Fesenjoon on

Agreement with mullahs? Since when has a muslim lived up to his honor and promise? Their God permits lying! 

What guarantee do u have that tomorrow, some mullah doesnt wake up suddenly declaring nuclear Jihad as halal? These mullahs think with their penises. If deprived of sexual gratification, they will reverse a fatwa the next morning. Simple as that.

joke meegeen... 


Shutruk

Pishraft : hamishe hamishe

by Shutruk on

 

Amir,

Let's face it: You hate Arabs. Their rulers are indeed bastards who want to bomb Iran like the Israelis, but the Telhami survey shows that they support the Iranian people and nation more than you ever could:

//www.brookings.edu/reports/2010/0805_arab_op...

Iran is popular in the Islamic world and the NAM countries. That is thanks to 30 years of Revolution and opposing U.S. hegemony.

Now, Iran has overtaken Britain in motor vehicle production:

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

You can hate Iran's progress all you like, but it won't stop it


Mola Nasredeen

Mobarak Basheh, "Iran in full control of nuclear fuel cycle now"

by Mola Nasredeen on

Eat your hearts out Zionist groupies and Israel's defenders. This has been accomplished while Iranian scientists are being kidnapped and assassinated.

"Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said the uranium ore concentrate, known as yellowcake, was produced at the Gachin uranium mine in southern Iran and delivered to the uranium conversion facility in the central city of Isfahan for reprocessing.

The Gachin uranium mill near Bandar Abbas processes ore extracted from a nearby mine into yellowcake. The processing is part of the early stages before actual enrichment of uranium.

Yellowcake is then taken to the Isfahan facility to be processed into uranium hexafluoride, which later can be turned into a gas used as feedstock for enriching uranium. Uranium enriched to low grades is used for fuel in nuclear reactors.

//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/iran_nuclear

There are no documents or evidence from any credible sources including CIA that Iran is planning to produce atomic weapon. The 2007 NIE's report completed by 16 U.S. intelligent departments who had announced Iran was not trying to make nuclear weapon. He also indicates there is a new NIE report indicating Iran is not planning to build nuclear weapons.

//iranian.com/main/blog/moosirvapiaz/new-york-times-beats-drums-war


AlexInFlorida

This Article Isn't worth the Paper it is written on!

by AlexInFlorida on

Too many unlikely wishes is how you can describe this article.  Who ever wrote this is reading the papers a little too much as an only source for their info. Please don't take my assesment of your article personally.  Thats how Iranians got into the mess of betraying their own shah... that is by listening to ridiculous self serving views of others and not based on reality.

First Official US Policy is not written in a way that an ordinary person can understand it, but here it is in a Nut Shell:

The US Governmet and all its allies want the fundamentalists in power, the only thing is they are not so happy with these fundamentalists that don't do as they are told, so they want their own group of ignorant, uneducatable, corrupt, immoral thieves.

Their objective is to continue to dominate Iran, using mullahs, as they have for the past 31 years since they destroyed the shah at the hands of his own people by paying for a vast populist opposition to overthrow a man that was portrayed through disingenuous propaganda as a crook, a despotic tyrat and a megalomaniac.  Of which clearly he was none, infact he was far more democratic than the people and ahead of his time.  And left his coutry without taking any money as was clear when the Iranian Jewish community paid the Iranian Monarchs widow money to live and support her family after the revolution and death of the shah.

If this article had any value, other than being a view made from a person who is not aware of the sophistication of the problem at hand they would have titled the article

"Why democratic republics like those of the USA and her allies aren't worth the paper they are written on".

Example: The Shah, before the IRI, had a pact with the USA for the defense of his government.

Explanation: A pact is the most sacred agreement a government can make.  It is more important than an Agreement, or even a treaty, a pact is not breakable by law from one side or the other unilaterally without having support by both governments.  That is written in the constitution of both countries involved in the pact.  So really... Americas Dirty work on the Iranian people is just as bad as what it did to Iraqi's... infact many would Argue Americas betrayal of the Shah was even more damaging to Iranians than the US lead occupation of Iraq, which is likely to be ETERNAL or until they get kicked out.

And during the late 1970's as the shah was being overthrown and betrayed by US Government at the highest level, he also had to deal with the USA refusing Iranian police the sale of plastic bullets and tear gas to contain and defeat the protests.  That is why everything eventually went wrong... not to mention the CIA training of Khomeini's Terrorist Thugs and paying Khomeineis private accout over $150 Million Dollars each wire transfer.

Irony is not even khomeii knew why the USA supported and wanted him.  Because a radical theocracy could be used to keep Iranians Economically backward and controllable. Irans Nuclear scietists in the usa are first rate, but the ones in Iran are worthless.

For Example:  Experts from USA/Russia/China/France/UK all know for a fact Iran can not produce even 1 nuke in the next 40 years.  This is a fact documented by many many nuclear scientists... Why? because it does not have the people in Iran nor does it have the capability to produce such people and such an effort requires many many educated people. 

This whole Nuclear story is just a charade to manipulate regular uninformed people like Hossein Askari and other uneducate, uninformed Iranians.

Now Hossein Askari, why would the USA do what you are saying to help Iranians breate a little easier later on?  They are not crazy after what they have done to Iran... with the help of people like Hossein Askari... why would they now all of a sudden change their hand.. when their is zero threat from an Iran Nuclear Program.

This Group Of Mullahs will go and unless Iranians are wise, which I know they are not, another group will take their place like the hand picked green movement and Iranians will be left eating GOH or pursing the dream of a republic (which is worse than GOH) for the next 30 years, due to their inability to rally around their own flag and traditional Culture I.E. Shah-han shahi.

 


AMIR1973

VPK,

by AMIR1973 on

The accusation of "racism" from IRI Groupies is as credible as the charge of "warring against God" (mohareb) or being "anti-Iran" that the Islamic Republic and its errand boys and girls on this and other websites make. It has as much value as the rial (and we know what's happened to the value of that currency in the past 31 years) or attempting a "dialogue" with the Khomeinist "republic", i.e. none whatsoever. The "racism" charge is all the more amusing, given that the IRI hosted a former KKK Grand Wizard and European neo-Nazis at its Holocaust denial conference in Tehran a few years back. 


Hoshang Targol

How about an incredibly obtuse

by Hoshang Targol on

and an un-paid (volunteer, perhaps?) apologist for IR, as opposed to a traitor and a paid agent?cheers


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Amir Jaan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Good advise. By the way I missed the racism. Shuturk claims you are racist so it must be true since everything else he said is 24 carat gold! 

Q says I am a racist so that must be true to. I guess I am in good company!


Shutruk

Amir and racism

by Shutruk on

 

There are 5 million Iranians living or studying abroad: Amir believes that anyone who defends Iran from the propaganda of the royalists, zionists, imperialists, communists, marxists, separatists etc should be sent back to Iran even if they have personal or professional ties in the West.

Amir advocates a perverted form of racism and fascism. If you don't agree with the stupid and self-defeating policies of western governments then f*** off back to your own country!

But should this surprise us? The anti-Arab racism of many Iranians on this site is despicable, as is the fascistic view that anyone who supports the IRI is a "traitor" and a paid "apologist".


AMIR1973

"Don't bother" is exactly right

by AMIR1973 on

When it comes to an attempted "dialogue" with West-residing IRI Groupies, the best advice is to follow the title of the article by Hossein Askari: "Don't bother". The IRI Groupies are right: The IRI has afforded Iranians more political and media pluralism and openness than they have ever known, certainly more than is the case in the U.S. The unbelievable level of basic freedoms and rights in the IRI is actually quite astounding and considerably greater than some people (i.e. Zionists, imperialists, capitalists, and other such traitors to the "Meehan") would have you believe. Overall, the political and economic situation in the IRI is fundamentally sound, and things are continuing to get better on an almost daily basis. Soon, things will be so good there that even the West-residing IRI Groupies living in North America or Europe will pack up their belongings and settle down permanently in the People's Democratic Islamic Republic of Iran. Take care. 


Hoshang Targol

Take out Basijis from streets for two minutes, everything will

by Hoshang Targol on

collaps in one minute. 16 Azar is coming up, cheers


Shutruk

Face up to some facts, Sean

by Shutruk on

You just want Iran to return to the master-slave relationship with the United States that it languished in under the Shah. You have no intention of allowing Iran to pursue a nuclear program no matter what government is in power.

You are an imperialist and a fascist whom the Iranian people have nothing but contempt for.

If you refuse to accept the evidence, then your opinion is worthless. People like you have been talking about the collapse of the IRI for 30 yeas now - it hasn't happened nor will it.

The Revolution continues.....


Sargord Pirouz

Good for you Amir

by Sargord Pirouz on

Many of my family members live close by, so I see them regularly. I'm just a short motorcycle ride away. Unfortunately, today it's raining. I might still ride out to the coast.

The discussion on this thread is rather mundane. But then, so is the article it refers to. 


seannewyork

it is not evidence and the IRI is facist

by seannewyork on

again the iranians have the right but not this regime.  when iran is free the nuclear issue will be revisited.

it is evidence for you because you are a part of IRI, not the rest of us, your evidence is as good as toilet paper.

 have a nice life.  i am sure you are losing sleep as the collapse of this regime is in your mind when you go to bed at night.


Shutruk

Sean denies the evidence

by Shutruk on

 

So, you think that any evidence that contradicts your point of view is worthless?  Such disregard for the truth is "Fascism" with a capital "F".

Sanctions won't endear the Iranian people to folks like yourself. It only makes Iranians more determined than ever to pursue their rights.


Hoshang Targol

What's the difference between a " Forced Labor Camp"/prison

by Hoshang Targol on

in Tehran and the ones opend up by Nazi in Germany, back then?


seannewyork

IRI supporters are so twisted

by seannewyork on

they think the world is stupid and they can throw out polls and stats from the regime and it is credible.

they dont get it.  nothing about IRI is credible and that is why the world will allow IRI to get nukes.

Iran has the right but not this regime.

I agree that the mullahs should be squeezed more with sanctions.


Shutruk

The jails are not full

by Shutruk on

For goodness sake, of the 5,000 people arrested in the election riots of last year, only 100 remain in prison. Kahrizak was closed down.

Recently, more prisoners were released.

I don't know in what country, the authorities would allow the opposition to both deny and slander the outcome of the ballot box and take to the streets burning buses and throwing rocks at police. And these "greens" claim to be democrats!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Shuturk

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

It is a waste of time talking to you. Fine you think whatever; IRI is just the example of freedom and openness. That is why the jails are full and they hang people 3 at a time. Frankly I have not heard so much BS even from SP.


marhoum Kharmagas

old communist!? (to Targol Margoli)

by marhoum Kharmagas on

Targol Margoli, granted that evolution forgot about your case, and even at an old age you still think like an 18 year idealist/communist, ....., you are still much better than likes of Mossad Kazemzadeh. Why do you regurgitate his  ***+ and call those who don't think like you "Intelligence Minsitry's Mouthpieces".


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Banning Todeh

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Parties do not commit treason; people do that. If a man commits treason they should be punished. You don't ban a whole ideology just because some members of that party did wrong. 

By that philosophy we should ban Islam because IRI is committing crimes. Hey not a bad idea is it? I am not a Marxist but their main "crime" was to be a rival to the Mollahs. When we have a truly  Iran they will be free to run like others.


Shutruk

Give me a break

by Shutruk on

I hardly think NPR's "Mike Shuster" can be expected to offer an objective account. Is this the sort of nonsense you read? Is this the sort of "information" you get?

The fact is that reformists had candidates in *every seat*. They ended up winning about 90 in total, with the independents included.

75% of those who registered were qualified to run. Of course, it should be nearer 95% like in the 2000 Majlis election, but as Niloufar says, it is a heck of a lot better than the situation back in 1975 with the Shah's one party (Ratakhiz) state the only permitted.


Hoshang Targol

Which ones are the Intelligence Minsitry's Mouthpieces in here?

by Hoshang Targol on

Shuturak, Abji Narima.


Niloufar Parsi

vpk

by Niloufar Parsi on

i think the argument is not so much that iran's system is superior, but that it is far more open and democratic than some claim. it needs to evolve into something better. but in terms of popular participation and openness to opposition, it has evolved from something inferior: the one-party rastakhiz fiasco.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

How about

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

this?

//www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?story...

Please say something that is not so easily refuted.


Shutruk

Veiled prophet or knowledge?

by Shutruk on

The candidates are not "approved" - they are qualified to run. Obviously, criminals and terrorists cannot be allowed and must be banned. Sure, some candidates have been excluded unjustly, but there is an appeals process in place to prevent any unfair disqualification.

The reformists have been arguing that, as long as one accepts the country's constitution, one can stand for election in the Majlis. I agree.

In the municipal elections, there is hardly any vetting/screening at all. These elections are completely free and fair by any standard.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Shutruk

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

It does not matter how many candidates run if they are all pre-approved. It is not hard to find 4600 people in Iran who would be in the pocket of IRI rulers.