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Why the Green Movement is doomed
30-Jan-2010
Change, revolution, transformation, reform is a project. Like any project, it has to meet certain requirements to succeed. Every project has some common principles. The outcome must be clearly defined, right team must be assigned, a clear strategy must be put in place, risk assessment must be implemented and most importantly … the process must be executed by the right leader. The leader must be able to sell his/her vision to the team. The team must be able to sell the leader’s vision to the stakeholders. The leader must consistently explain the outcome to the team, anticipate roadblocks and recalibrate strategy. The team must share the vision and trust the leader. The leader must execute, foresee, inspire and reiterate. All stakeholders must be onboard.
There are many examples in history that support this theory. Ayatollah Khomeini for example ran a successful project to overthrow the Shah of Iran. He clearly defined the outcome: “Shah must go.” He then defined the vision, “independence, freedom, Islamic Republic.” He assigned a team of nationalists to run the campaign inside and outside of Iran which gave his movement a nationalistic credential. In his taped speeches he reiterated the vision which included phony catch phrases that brought all factions of the opposition together. He inspired people and executed his project (revolution) with tight grip. And ultimately his project succeeded and his goals were achieved. Some argue that the Ayatollah was a con artist who deceived the populace to establish a form of government that served only an exclusive segment of the society. That might be true, but it does not change the fact that Khomeini was an effective project manager.
Nelson Mandela is another example of superb project management. He too defined his goals clearly: “Apartheid regime must vanish.” He developed a roadmap that directed his team to pickup arms and fight the government of South Africa. But he cleverly changed course when he realized that his original strategy did not bear fruit (flexibility). He quickly purged his team of leftist radicals and replaced them with lawyers, political experts and clergymen (recalibration). From his prison cell, he explained the reasons behind the change of strategy to his new team (risk assessment) and invited his team to go out in the field and sell the vision to the community. The common goal brought the stakeholders (residents of the townships) onboard and the roadmap gave the team a clear path to follow. The vision was defined, the outcome was explained, strategy was in place and the execution was carried out. Mandela won. Apartheid lost.
Gandhi and MLK took the same path. They too followed successful project management principles. During the life of any project, things will go wrong all the time. But a great project manager maneuvers his/her way around obstacles with the ultimate goal in mind.
Now, here it goes: the green movement lacks most, if not all elements of a successful project management. There is no clear leadership. Therefore no clear path has been set by the leader(s). No vision, no cohesive strategy and most importantly: no clear goal. The team can not define its objectives with a unified voice. The vision has not been communicated to the stakeholders; therefore, just about every participant has its own version of the outcome. People are not clear as to exactly what the goals of the movement are. Other than participating in demonstrations during IRI national occasions, there is no clear roadmap. Lack of cohesive strategy has allowed IRI to easily manipulate the movement’s rank and file.
Some argue that people are the true leaders of the green movement. Though sounds romantic, the argument holds no water as it implies that a car with strong engine but no wheels can get you to your destination. One thing that the green movement has clearly going for it is passion. But passion alone will not achieve goals. At some point a project manager with strong leadership skills must emerge or this movement will eventually flicker out.
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While Khomeini received
by vildemose on Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:33 AM PSTWhile Khomeini received most of his financing from the CIA, while in Iraq and France. He was not the person organizing all the activities of 1979. Experts in propaganda were used on the continents of USA, Europe and Middle East within days after the Shahs Oil Price hikes in 1970 (forget exact date), paid for by oil companies, out of their assets to 3 secret services.
Documentation- The Secrets Of The States, by the President Of France Valery Giscardestang. A good buy and read for people that want to go over the heads of the media to the source.
See //www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCjOk2t6Ah4&feature=related
Unfortunately this is misrepresented as a conspiracy because over throwing Shah was all done in plain sight. Just like when George Bush lost in his 2nd bid as President to an unknown William Clinton. Ending Shah was open US National Policy and so was supporting Khomeini.
Precisely. The US in principle still supports the same vision for Iran. Keep it backward, deeply mired in religious superstition, exploiting the shia/sunni divide, selling their number on export: Arms and more Arms all over ME to illiterate radical Islamists hoping to have their own Islamic empire soon...
Interesting article
by Abarmard on Tue Feb 02, 2010 07:27 AM PSTSome quotes to go with the article:
"Vision without action is merely a dream Action without vision merely passes the time. Vision with action can change the world." Joel Barker
"You can have anything you want, you just can't have everything you want"
"However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results" Sir Winston Churchill.
Siamak you're cherry picking Project Management "principles"
by Anonymouse on Tue Feb 02, 2010 07:00 AM PSTI wrote a blog partly in response to your article. Weekend Warriors defining a revolution. Where does timing and durations come in play in your project analysis? Revolution and change are messy and once you have more tasks accomplished in your "project" you can see it take shape.
You used these principles to deny it as a revolution but you can easily use the same principles and arguements to establish it as a revolution. On paper anyway ;-)
Green movement is definately not doomed. Once the cat is out of the bag there is no going back. How can you stop or ignore this crack in the regime that has taken 30 years to mature?
Everything is sacred.
Factually Inaccurate.
by AlexInFlorida on Mon Feb 01, 2010 06:31 PM PSTWhile Khomeini received most of his financing from the CIA, while in Iraq and France. He was not the person organizing all the activities of 1979. Experts in propaganda were used on the continents of USA, Europe and Middle East within days after the Shahs Oil Price hikes in 1970 (forget exact date), paid for by oil companies, out of their assets to 3 secret services.
Documentation- The Secrets Of The States, by the President Of France Valery Giscardestang. A good buy and read for people that want to go over the heads of the media to the source.
See //www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCjOk2t6Ah4&feature=related
Unfortunately this is misrepresented as a conspiracy because over throwing Shah was all done in plain sight. Just like when George Bush lost in his 2nd bid as President to an unknown William Clinton. Ending Shah was open US National Policy and so was supporting Khomeini.
Dear Hakeem, the first rule of politics is not speaking down to
by Hovakhshatare on Mon Feb 01, 2010 10:59 AM PSTyour audience/readers. let alone the country which you are doing intentionally or inadvertently; So internalize the learning you seem to be conveying. As an Iranian do not refer to Iranians as them/they.
Now listing discrete pieces of highly arguable and out of context information on various countries and conclusions about those discrete statements barely qualifies as political insight or even historical knowledge; and I do not mean any disrespect by that. For example, U.S. England and France are G3 & prime world governing bodies only in your view that can not be substantiated by facts or on the ground or political events. They are players and U.S. is G2 along with China but in material influence the BRIC along with several others rank higher or at least as high.
Your information on Turkmanistan, Kazakistan seems rather misplaced and have little to do with what has been and is ongoing there. One example is boiling humans as a torture and that is current, not history. Let me know if you are interested and I'll provide credible politicos, academics and intel resources.
Various countries rise and fall to power and that has little to do with the comments you make and associating them with history and timelines. "Oil is the biggest constraint. But politics is a game of resources and constraints." sounds good but that is as far as it goes. making that statement does not imply astuteness in exercise of politics nor it accounts for realities beyond politics, as you have demonstrated here.
The street government was imposed on Iran based on political and military realities encompassing Iran and missteps by previous regime. The current regime will fall by other sets of mistakes and at a great cost to the nation unless the uprisings work. We lack institutions of democracy for sure and I addressed that in my previous comments. But there is no consistent logic or evidence in the blog or your comments to suggest or presuppose the failure of the Iranian uprising or another street regime replacing it. Indeed what has transpired so far was not predicted by anyone even on June 12th.
To use your surgeon or McLaren analogy, projecting and theorizing about future based on historical dots and project management is a task best suited to futurist who are wrong 98% of the time, not politicians or politics.
Chon Nik Nazar Kard .....
by Hakeem on Mon Feb 01, 2010 04:09 AM PSTBa Salam to ALL IC Bloggers.
Who can fix up a McLaren engine or a Lamborghini engine?
who can fix up a Concorde engine?
A painter or a carpenter? A relevant Engineer.
Who can take out a cancerous tumor out of a patient's brain?
A butcher or a tailor? A neurosurgeon like Dr. Sameei.
Who can design a tower as big as Burj Kalifa 828 meters?
Who can lead forces in a global warfare?
Of ALL the Great Sciences(Engineering, Medical, Architecture, Astronomy, warfare etc. etc.) Politics is the King of ALL. It deals with standard of living of millions and billions (only in China and India).
Politics is NOT a child's game.
Politics is Science of administrating ALL available resources effectively and efficiently within the persisting Constraints.
How Nepal should manage being between 2 big powers as India and China? Can Nepal incline towards any one of them? What will be the consequences then? Can Nepal, by all her means, manage a balance between these 2 giants?
How Mongolia manages with Russia in North and China in South?
What sort of policies she should adopt to make most of them?
How Singapore should manage being surrounded by Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, China, Taiwan and HongKong?
IRI was a Street Government (Dowlat e Khyabani) from day one, because instead of resolving politics in chambers, those were managed on the streets.
Dowlat e Shahanshahi Iran (Mr. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) was also a Dowlat e Khyabani as things were managed on the streets.
IRI creation excels Shah's regime in sense that Mr. Khomeini (we should learn to be civic, impartial, logical & respectful. Politics requires cryogenic temperatures and never high tempertures with traces of humor to pleasant the discussion) was inside Iran and alongwith the masses when IRI was formed. Shah was in Rome and when all was in order, he was invited to come and put the Crown on his head.
Shah was educated in prestigious Swiss institutions and could speak several languages while Mr. Khomeini could hardly speak proper Farsi and seldom anybody could understand what he was talking about.
Shah had background of his father while Mr. Khomeini had no such backgrounds.
Shah had 35 Golden years to set a concrete political establishment that could lead Iranian nation on forward. He lost the chance.
Mr. Khomeini had no plans at all. Just WISHES like 99.99% of Iranians.
Shah was compelled to flee (2nd time) while Mr. Khomeini was expelled to exile.
Shah died in exile while Mr. Khomeini died in Iran.
Our discussion was Street Governments. That was a brief comparison between Shahanshah Aryamehr and Imam Khomeini.
You cannot expect anything from a Street Government. These will bring about Great Miseries and ultimately fall aground, causing still much to lose.
Other example of Street Government is Union of Soveit Socialist Republic. It was created on the streets and collapsed after 70 years causing much havoc and calamity to Russian nation than had caused by Nazi invasion of Russia in 1941 or Batu Khan's invasion of 1238.
Soviet Union's collapse (1985-1991) was NOT through street protests as in 1917. This time Russian establisment was a BIT wiser. The transfer took place in chambers. They just announced and the Union collapsed, bloodlessly. Due to this we expect they are on a better path than before.
Mr. Fidel Castro's Cuba is another example of Street Government. After 51 years of its formation a Cuban's average income is $20 per month. Sheer lack of electricity and cultivations resembles primitive mode 10,000 years back.
People's Republic of China in another example of Street Government
It's just another USSR. Cosmetically it looks prosperous but gravely lacks foundations of a political institutions. Still a 3rd world country.
If I would ask a 20 years layman to fix a McLaren or to take out a tumor out of a brain or lead an army to combat everybody would laugh at me as if I am carzy.But if I would ask the same layman to protest in the streets of a country (any country, not necessarily Iran) in hope of a better politico-socio-economic future I am justified.
Politics is far far more sophisticated than just fixing cars or doing complicated surgeries.
Such expectations from laymen depicts the depth of helplessnes and bewilderness of a nation.
And people never make a civilization without a POLITICAL leader.
Cyrus made up his masses and they in turn made the Achaemanid Empire.
Numa Pompilius made up his masses and they created the Roman Empire.
Meiji Emperor was the root cause for today's Japan.
George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Jhon Fritzgerald Kennedy are responsible for US supermacy of today.
I do not see Street protests would lead to supermacy of a nation or country.
As of today, there are 3 politically advanced countries, The US, England and France. I call them G3. They are the prime governing body of today's world.
Germany and Japan being highly technologically advanced but due to sheer lack of military independence, act as Robots for G3. Having so much and still be a Robot!!! This is really an irony.
Oil is the biggest constraint. But politics is a game of resources and constraints. ALL countries do have their own constraints but why some act better than others?
Qatar, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia seem to act better then Iraq and Iran. Also Azarbaijan, Turkmanistan and Kazakstan, at least till now.
Countries as big as Brazil, Russia, India and China cannot compete with G3.
Some Iranian (Religious) live in 1400 years back while some other (Non Religious) live in 2500 years back!
Iranian intellectuals, if any, should strive to resolve these sticking to past bahaviour of the Iranians.
How Japan could manage to become a world power (techno-economically) without a Cyrus or DariusI (NOT Darius III)? Without Islam or 2500 years of civilization?
Who set the criterion that if a nation had a Cyrus or 2500 years civilization should lead the world or become a world power? Or even to be something of minor importance?
What are the main rules and regulations that a nation should comply in order to become SOMETHING? (Japan, Norway, Singapore, etc)
What are the things when a nation acts upon would become NOTHING? (Afghanistan, Iraq, Zimbabwe, Cuba, North Korea, Burma etc.)
What is the Bull's Eye reason for a nation to Rise or Fall? Cyrus? Darius? Islam? 5000 years civilization? Angelina Joli???!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chon Nik Nazar Kard Par e Kheesh dar aan did
Goft az ke benalim ke AZ MAST KE BAR MAST
I am an Iranian. By the way.
Peace be unto those who follow the Right Path.
compelling argument by Didani
by Monda on Sun Jan 31, 2010 07:54 PM PST"In a corporate environment, people are confined to the structure of the corporation and “the project”. In a movement, people are not confined to the will of their leaders. Specially in recent Iran events, people have crowded the streets even without Mousavi and/or Karoubi’s blessing."
This movement is Unique by its spirit. Corporate models of management don't/ won't hold.
Leaders are not as needed now since...
by Anahid Hojjati on Sun Jan 31, 2010 07:38 PM PSTWhen revolutions had leaders, there were advantages that these leaders had over common man/woman. For instance these leaders had access to information about situation in country and also had means of communicating with many people. Khomeini knew about how Iranians were feeling about situation through network of mosques and he was able to distribute his tapes. Nowadays average person through Internet has excellent access to information and is also able to communicate with many people through tools such as blogs. So average person can assume laedership position if that person has a message that is in line with what people need at that cross section.
Shaho Jonroy
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:52 PM PSTThere is truth in your words. After the loss to Alexander we lost the original text of Avesta. Because Alexander destroyed it. I believe its loss was probably the greatest single blow to our people. I know this sounds strange but from a bits left i.e. Gathas we know there was amazing wisdom in them. Specially for that age and would have given us a good 2000 year head start in Civil Rights! It was that wisdom which allowed the greatness of Hakhamaneshian kings.Without them we lost our guidance. The Sassanian version of Zoroastrianism was far from the Gathas and led to inequities which eventually led to our loss to the arabs.
I am not as gloomy though. We are no different than anyone else. Other great nations have had disunity. When you get a large nation specially in old days local cultures vary. Now a days tv; movies; and instant communication will homogenize culture to a degree. We just need to remind ourselves that we are all Iranians and in general it does not matter what political view we hold of what race we are. The only exception is criminals but that is no different in any nation.
Veiled Prophet of Khorasan you are mistaking
by XerXes. on Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:30 PM PSTThe West had nothing to do with the revolution. People must stop talking like my grand father generation and begin to grasp the reality. Iranian people do matter. Shah didn't think so, but things have changed. Enter our time, you might like it.
The disunity among our people is reason number one
by Shaho Jonroy on Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:58 AM PSTWe are the people lost after our land was conquered by Alexander Great. We never regained back our dignity back after that. We had Parthian and Sassanid dynasties according to the scholar Hamma Mirwaisi but we never learn to be united after the destructions of Emperor Darius the Great brought upon our nation.
We Iranian believe that we are very well educated people without even reading a book. We learn how to hate each others, dividing our nations along the line of Persian, Kurds, Azeri, Elamite, Lori and so forth.
Scholar Hamma Mirwaisi found our 2500 years old Aryan language. The Language is good for the people from Pakistan to Turkey and From Kurdistan to former Soviet Union countries.
Emperor Darius the Great did very bad thing because he divided our nations for the first time. But he did very good work by living us a language can unit us again if any one really cares about Iran and Iranian.
One has truly study the subject and tries to understand without following the Turkish Shah and Arab Mullah. The educations are the key to understand our language, culture and heritage, without educations we never going to be united, without union we never going to be librated.
I love all of you from our old country. The country builds for us by Median, Cyrus and destroyed by Darius. Read the document and articles by true Iranian Hamma Mirwaisi below:
BEHISTUN_INSCRIPTIONS by HAMMA MIRWAISI
//sites.google.com/site/behistunmin/from-behi...
Behistun cuneiform inscriptions
Discovery of 2500 years old Aryan language (Kurdish, Elamite, Persian and others languages) below for your information’s
From Behistun (Behishtan) cuneiform inscriptions to the Kurmanji Kurdish Alphabet
Dear reader
Please let me know if you find anything wrong or you do not agree with meaning of words. Write me and I will communicate with you to fix any error you might find. I appreciate any assistance to have the document for the people to be enjoyable.
Hamma Mirwaisi
hmirwaisi@gmail.com
//www.opednews.com/author/author43208.html
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Iran: President Obama's Credibility is under Question Mark
Calling on President Obama to be careful with his statements.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
President Obama's visit with President Massoud Barzani of Kurdistan
Calling on President Obama to support free elections and rule of laws in Kurdistan.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Iran the land of Emperor Dayukku and Cyrus the Great- Part I
Iran and Iranian Culture and heritage stories
Monday, January 4, 2010
Iran and the Spirit of the Airyanem Vaejah Nation
(5 comments) The Cultural stories
Oil has set the tone, agenda & infrastructure of power
by Hovakhshatare on Sun Jan 31, 2010 05:55 PM PSTThat is why we have not had the institutions of democracy, and when we did have it long before others, it was crushed. Your observation Hakeem have some truth but hardly reflective of reality and facts. Your example of Turkey whose Ataturk is a person I admire, would be in a very different situation if it had the massive oil reources of Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Algeria as so on. A few years ago among very few useful things UN has done was a study of Oil rich nations in which all were dictatorships and/or otherwise in turmoil. The only exception being Norway which was educated, rich & democratic long before oil discovery. Being European did not hurt either. I recommend The Prize from mid 90's that reviews oil and its historic/political influence and impact. In 16th century the British figured out, that the 'mastery of the sea was the key to the mastery of the world'. In 20th into 21st every one knows in that phrase you only replace seas with oil and now the broader term 'energy'. Iranian people have paid the price in the center of this global power play so speaking of institutions of democracy for Iran, a civilization, that has given so many gifts to this world is less than kind. Iran does not lack the talent, energy or will but it has had to contend with all major powers of the world and often with several of them in collusion with each other. I assure you Turkey or any other nation will have been crushed and pulverized by now under a fraction of that kind of pressure (Turkey and others as neighbors have not been very good friends meanwhile). Iran has always risen from the ashes and will do so again. That we persist, is a testament to the Iranian spirit and heritage. That the slogan is now 'not eastern or western, but Iranian shows the awakening of a nation that sees its future in its past. And when it does, it will have given another gift to a world that seems to have lost its moral compass.
These pedestrian project management ideas are not indications of any facts on the ground nor they represent the spectrum of ideas and innovations we have that will come thru in near future. 30 or 60 years while historical tyranny is not a long time in Iranian timeline.
Khomenei was NOT the
by benross on Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:33 AM PSTKhomenei was NOT the project manager for 1979 revolution
It doesn't matter now but it's a misleading concept. He was the leader, he was the one giving directives. The puck stopped with him so to speak. Who carried out directives accordingly? Those who are currently in power or had their share of power at some point. It is immaterial now. Unless we want to draw a conclusion. I wouldn't put too much faith in anonymous green leaders, even if they existed.
Mr Hakeem, great comment. Thank you. In Iran lack of political establishment is due to lack of established political process. We always asked far more than we could handle!
Re: Khomenei was NOT the project manager for 1979 revolution
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Jan 31, 2010 09:59 AM PSTThat is 100% true. There were several foreign powers in the West including England; France and the Carter administration actively involved. I don't know exactly who managed it but you can bet it was not Khomeini.
I agree with MasoudA
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun Jan 31, 2010 09:52 AM PSTIt would be stupid for the movement to show its leaders. Just to get IRR shoot them? They are there don't worry. And they know how to remain in touch.
I also agree that this is very poor timing for your article. Why try to demoralize people. They are risking their lives to liberate Iran.
If you think Khemeini was good at managing you must be talking about a different person. His mismanagement got Iran in a war and devalued the currency by 99.9%.
Khomenei was NOT the project manager for 1979 revolution
by Sheila K on Sun Jan 31, 2010 09:51 AM PSTThose behind the revolution were Hezbollah founders and fundementalist from Lebanon and Iranian sympathizers.
Hakeem: Excellent
by vildemose on Sun Jan 31, 2010 09:41 AM PSTHakeem: Excellent observation. How do we go about Making political Institutions? Please elaborate. thanks.
BTW, are you from Turkey?
Mr. Bani Ameri
by masoudA on Sun Jan 31, 2010 08:41 AM PSTI am surprised you of all people have trouble understanding the concept of a "Cyber Revolution", and terms like "Collective Wisdom" - You have been posting on IC long enough!! Not on;ly I challenge your vision for not envisioning the Green Leadership - but I also challenge your logic on not understanding the Green leadership in and out of Iran will be greatly endangered if it comes out. I also challenge your motive, at making such a negative post at this point - despite raising some goor points.
No Political Establishment
by Hakeem on Sun Jan 31, 2010 01:23 AM PSTSince demise of Qajar Dynasty, there hasn'e been any attempt to set a political establishment. Therefore when you remove a person or a few persons the whole system collapses as there is no foundation no structure nothing. The agony of Iranian politics is it has been unable to make any political establishment. Regarding Iran a muslim country or at least a 3rd world country one can easily compare wher we stand politically. Look around and see some examples. Look at Turkey, what happens if the current regime is dismissed by the Turkish Army. a marshal Law and the country will be in the hands of the Army but still it would continue to survive but at a slower pace. I beleive that Turks are about or already made a political establishment. By removing Saddam Hussain, Iraq has lost its government and its army. Politically Iraq does not exist. The probabilty for a fragmented Iraq is at its peak and in line with Big Powers' interests. Afghanistan has no government as well as no army. This is the most vulnerable country in the globe. You remove Hamed Karzai and thw whole Afghanistan would collapse. Pakistan is a mysterious country. After Zulfiqar Bhutto, Zia-ul-Haq, Benazir Bhutto and so many it tested 5 nuclear bombs, a clear indication to the world that it has developed and got a political establishment. No matter who is on the scene they are fully capable to move forward in the right direction. Most of the Arab countries from Morrocco to Yemen are vulnerable, politically. You remove a few persons and whole system comes down. They have NOT been able to set any political establishment.
The agony of Iranian regimes is that they have been unable to make a political establishment. By removing a few IRI leaders the whole system collapses down. The Tragedy is so dire that even Iranians outside Iran could NOT make a unified opposition against IRI. This is a great pity.
IRI was rotten from day one. After 31 years it is only due to internal disintegration of the system that has led to Green Movement, otherwise once IRI gets united, they could reign for another 31 years. IRI has been a Net Profit for the whole world since its existence. There is no reason for Big Powers to remove it. The only and only losers of IRI formation were Iranians. All of them whether inside or outside.
Let alone a unified political opposition, through surfing many Iranian weblogs, even they are NOT kind and respectful to each other. They cannot even tolerate each others differences in politics, religion, ethnics. They are common in one thing only. No IRI. They all WISH to have a Free, Democratic and Prosperous country, without any leadership, without any plan, without any unified opposition.
Last but not least, eminent figures as big as Dr. Hassan Dabashi, Dr. Milani, Reza Pahlavi, etc. etc. have reckoned the youths and youngs in the streets as their leaders!!!
IRI was formed as result of street revolts 31 years ago instead of political institutions. A new regime is again to be born, again due to the street protests. IRI was and is a Street Regime. The next would be definitely a street regime again. No doubt.
Iranians should learn to make practical and workable political institutions, after 2500 years of civilization.
mr. baniameri, thank you
by hamsade ghadimi on Sun Jan 31, 2010 07:59 PM PSTmr. baniameri, thank you for your informative article. while your article describes the classical business model and matches its elements and consequences with characteristics of some of the successful revolts in the world, it may be narrow in scope. some of the commenters alluded to this restricted view. one can come up with examples of innovative leaderless enterprises that have been successful such as the internet, alcoholics anonymous, some automobile production lines, ebay, etc.
another shortcoming of the argument falls on the difference between the profit-maximizing (private sector) and welfare-maximizing (government and social movements) behaviors that are at length discussed in economics literature. the profit-maximizing behavior is much simpler to analyze since the metrics used are dollars (or other currency), and the objective is to maximize the profit of the firm which in turn increases the income of the participants and stakeholders of the enterprise. on the other hand, a welfare-maximizing enterprise has often multiple objectives. these objectives may be antagonistic and the metrics used may be inconsistent across individuals or groups. take for example the 1979 revolution that you described. you’re correct that khomeini was successful in his lifelong endeavor (at least formally from 1963), and so were his followers. however, the non-islamists who also participated in the revolution and were stakeholders came out as losers. this so-called “free riding” phenomenon is at the core of public (welfare) economics and illustrates how a minority group can reap the benefits of the efforts of other groups. therefore, i cannot categorize the 1979 example as a true success.
i agree that it's much easier for an enterprise with a leader to succeed. and perhaps a legitimate leader will emerge to lead this movement. it's also true that passion alone does not achieve goals. but not anything alone achieves goals, not even hard work (e.g. slavery). but you have to admit, the persistence that the brave iranian people have shown this past year in face of such brutality has been phenomenal and i believe (and hope) something has to change for better because of it. and i also hope that we won't make the same mistakes or be hoodwinked and end up in misery again.
To think of Green in terms of 'a' movement or project
by oktaby on Sat Jan 30, 2010 07:33 PM PSTImplies a stage & maturity that is not here yet. To use your project analogy, requirements not yet agreed upon or stake holders bought into deliverables. Meanwhile, business has sunk into red with no hope of recovery. The 'poison pill' option is in play, while within & without the business all kinds of alliances and agreements are forming including hostile take overs by larger entities.
Your examples are applicable only on the margins. islamic regime is a hybrid beast and born of convergence of many foreign interests & missteps and khomeini was a subset of that not a manager of it. A regime that will kill anything that looks like an opposition makes a 'domestic' long term leader impractical & an exile leader is pre-mature. The foreign interests & context of South Africa was not the same & it would not have worked were it not for Deklerk''wisdom', as MLK's Civil rights will have been all for naught, were it not for LBJ. While MLK mimicked Gandhi's path, the movements and methodologies had little else in common both historically & socially.
This is a unique movement at a unique time in history and while we can use many different tools including project management, that approach can only go so far. Iranian women have been in forefront of this and that itself is a first in history of modern street uprising. The Iranian diaspora is mobilized for first time in 30 years and that is a first. The prospects of a costly war are part of the context and ....
Lack of a clear leader while demands of the people are rather clear in broad terms is an advantage. This tea just started brewing.
OKtaby
Blinded by flawed perception Sargord.
by Paykar on Sat Jan 30, 2010 04:43 PM PSTFrom the business as usual aspect of foreign policy, to the ability
of
security apparatus( I despise military jargon,) to control the
activity of the opposition, you seem to be infatuated by false
appearances as opposed to considering tangible, albeit, often not so
crystal currents of change that have been taking shape in the last 30
years. The opposition is vast , strong, and consists of many
tendencies, united around a single goal of bringing an end to the Coup
government.
To ignore the paramount shift that has occurred since
the June election, the rapid erosion of regime's legitimacy in the
eyes
of vast majority of Iranians, would lead any commentator astray - let
alone those of us who are predisposed by our occupational training to
see and analyze everything in rigid terms. The fluidity of political
movements and the minimum aspiration of the Iranian youth to live a
dignified life, they so rightly deserve, does not lend itself well to rigid
interpretations of any flavor.
P.S. I sense a distinct dislike for the freedom seekers in your posts. Calling a very clever and least costly tactics of people hijacking national events, opens a small window into your psyche.Whose side are you on?
We are countless.
Truth is so bitter, but we have to accept it
by mostafa ghanbari on Sat Jan 30, 2010 02:37 PM PSTmg
Truth is really bitter especially when it is to unveil and reveal the weak points of a self-suffered nation like the Iranian nation.
What are the meaning of the words, 'Project' 'Plan' 'Outcome' 'Outline' 'Direction' and...?Are not theses words to describe the whole philosophy of life? To understand the implications of theses words, we are in need of a very pure and superb FAITH. Are we a Faithful nation? if yes, what are the specifications of our faith?
Freedom, prosperity and elevation of man are located in the heart of the faith and certain beliefs...
AOL-Time Warner
by vosough on Sat Jan 30, 2010 02:17 PM PSTAll of what you cited in your theory were what all CEO's of all failed mergers try to present to their stakeholders and yet their plans failed.
So although the basic framework that you suggested are logically sound albeit more for the biz world rather than multi faceted world of politics but still they are not the end and be all for having a successful outcome.
Moreover you need to stop comparing the events in 2010 to 1979. Just as 1979 wasn't like the latter Iranian revolution of 1906 or the Bolsheviks 1917 revolution. Prof Dabashi of Columbia U. has suggested that Iranian green movement is like the American's civil right movement. A fair comparison but that doesn't mean we or folks like you can with absolute certainty go around and make a prediction by looking at your crystal ball by comparing every thing to that movement.
Just a thought!
Poor hostages are forced to choose between ..... and .....
by Louie Louie on Sat Jan 30, 2010 02:07 PM PSTMaghsoud yeh chize digast,kabevo botkhaneh bahanast. Who are we kidding?
A rescuer is needed for sure.
.
by Fatollah on Sat Jan 30, 2010 01:25 PM PST.
greens were worth voting for, not worth fighting for
by marhoum Kharmagas on Sat Jan 30, 2010 12:35 PM PSTMr. Baniameri, you have a valid point, but I believe there is another factor at work here, and that is many of us Iranians still have a fairly clear memory of 1979 revolution and we can't be easily fooled. I voted for the greens and I believe they were worth voting for, but then and now I had/have no illusion that they are are NOT worth fighting for.
sad but true
by gitdoun ver.2.0 on Sat Jan 30, 2010 12:28 PM PSTgood critique and you may be right.
This is a fair critique. To
by Sargord Pirouz on Sat Jan 30, 2010 11:54 AM PSTThis is a fair critique.
To date, I have not seen a single credible scenario provided for a Green victory (whatever that is). The only best case scenario at this point in time is a sustained undercurrent of opposition, expressing itself by attempting to hijack the half dozen or so national events around the calendar year.
On the other hand, the IRI government continues to function, foreign policy initiatives continue and economic moves are being planned and executed. If anything, the coming economic moves provide the closest thing to an opportunity for the Greens. Should the government mishandle those expected changes (which are, comparatively speaking, quite extensive) then a further opportunity might open up for the Greens.
Otherwise, the undercurrent of opposition remains quite manageable, from a security apparatus perspective.
Paykar, some of your points ...
by Harpi-Eagle on Sat Jan 30, 2010 09:37 AM PSTare correct. However, in one aspect, revolutions and uprisings can be described in business management frame that Siamak tried to explain, and that is hostile takeovers by infiltration into the board of directors (i.e. Karoubi).
Mousavi better make his final decision soon, this is the point where he will be either with people or with V.F., can't have your cake and it too Mir Hosein. As far as Karoubi, how many more times are we going to trust the Ammameh? First Khomeini, then Khatami, and now him. Don't we all know "A kniffe will never cut its own handle !"
Payandeh Iran, our Ahuraie Fatherland