SANCTIONS
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05-Jul-2010
With the most recent round of UN-approved sanctions and seemingly more restrictive additional sanctions introduced by the European Union, Canada, Japan and Australia, there appears to be renewed interest in the effectiveness of sanctions in altering the behaviour of the Islamic Republic of Iran concerning the atomic energy programme of the regime and its real purpose. In this note, I try to explore some of the less often discussed but I hope not less appreciated possible effects of sanctions.
Stated expected effects, sanctions will raise the cost of developing industrial capacity as development of the energy sector in Iran. Given that 80% of government’s budget and 70 percent of investment in industrial projects come from oil revenues which are under the monopoly of government and now significantly transferred in management to Islamic Guards, Sepah, sanctions will result in a fall in the revenue of government reducing its financial capability to pursue and complete its nuclear energy programme which is suspect of having the capacity to develop military potential for weaponization. This line of analysis advocates that in light of a very ambitious long range missile programme which already has the assumed capability of delivering a load, be it very small in weight, to most of southern Europe, world community, in the interest of collective security should use sanctions to cause a substantial reduction in the income earning of the present leaders and their security force Sepah which in recent years has expanded its presence in the oil, gas and almost all layers of the economy. Targeting of the four industries; energy, banking, transport and insurance are seen as weakening of the four pincers which Sepah had developed to complete the nuclear programme to its asserted militarized phase.
What we may see in reality, sanctions are likely to be used by Sepah as an opportunity to use the veil of foreign threat and national security to complete their grip on the economy and increase their revenues from their rent-seeking activities and at the same time displace their private sector competitors. In reality, sanctions may be used to expand Sepah’s economic empire and its share of the economy. At the same time, sanctions if policed effectively will very quickly see a fall in the growth rate of the economy. Combined with the poor management skills of Sepah, sanctions could push the Iranian economy into negative growth rate within 12-18 months. Industrial production is estimated to decline by 15 percent while unemployment rising by as much as another 5-7 percent on top of the existing official 15 percent (22% unofficial). In a young society where around 70% are under 30 years old, this could mean an unemployment rate of 35% amongst those enter the job market for the first time.
Sanctions are certain to increase cost of conducting trade to the economy, in this case by as much as 50% in some sectors. In the Iranian economy where imports use 88% of oil revenues, a rise in the cost of trade will be transferred to higher domestic prices. Those on fixed income, i.e. salaried and waged households will be most affected since they cannot adjust their prices, that is, the value of their labour accordingly. An accelerating inflation rate is almost certain do deplete the last nuggets of savings of the middle classes and push a large segment into the low income category.
As sanctions have often shown to produce, health spending and education are amongst the first services which governments cut their budgets whilst increasing the resources available to the security and intelligent services. Low income and middle income families are most dependent on the public sector provision of health and education services in Iran. It is more than likely that access and availability of these two basic services will be affected negatively. Entitlement to basic health and education are crucial to the development of a healthy and
So, why sanctions are used? They are preferred now since they are aimed to deal with the rising influence of Sepah command that has been transferring massive segments of the economy under its ownership and encouraging the mushrooming of corruption and systemic implementation of rent-seeking behaviour in foreign trade and energy sectors and banking. The rising financial power of Sepah is understood to have significant implications for the military and nuclear programmes approved by the leadership who wishes to see completion of control in the economy as well as over the politics of the country. Going back to business-as-usual not only actually will make a mockery of human rights of the citizens inside Iran, but may also have serious consequences in dealing with future risks under a new power structure in Islamic republic of Iran.
Sanctions are and always will have a negative effect on the wellbeing of the citizens of the targeted country but sometimes, they can accelerate positive change and bring about transition to a more participatory policy making framework of governance. They are the softest of the hard power tools or the hardest of the diplomatic language. In this case, they are displacing military action against Iran and those who talk about positive engagement may wish to pause and think about the behaviour of the leadership in the last 12 months and even in last 13 years when the Supreme Leader has blocked any attempts to meaningful and lasting reform. The dead end is one of the making of policies pursued by the leadership and is neither the wish of the West nor the citizens of Iran who wish to pursue a fruitful life and live in peace.
AUTHOR
Dr. Mehrdad Emadi is Economic advisor to the European Union.
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Aristotle
by fsadri on Sat Jul 31, 2010 04:25 PM PDTMay I suggest the following book’
How Early Muslim Scholars Assimilated Aristotle and Made Iran the intellectual Center of the Islamic World: A Study of Falsafah
By Farshad Sadri
//www.mellenpress.com/mellenpress.cfm?bookid=8001&pc=9
How Early Muslim Scholars Assimilated Aristotle
by fsadri on Sat Jul 31, 2010 04:22 PM PDTMay I suggest the following book
How Early Muslim Scholars Assimilated Aristotle and Made Iran the intellectual Center of the Islamic World: A Study of Falsafah
By Farshad Sadri
//www.mellenpress.com/mellenpress.cfm?bookid=8001&pc=9
Khashayarsha
by IranMilitaryForum.net on Mon Jul 12, 2010 08:44 PM PDTWelcome aboard! I see you have already realized that this traitor bunch is as hollow as anyon's enemy can get.
FYI! VPK is a convert to Christianity. She was never a flower when she was a Muslim and as a Christian she is a continious embarassement to her newly aquired religion as a bigotted facist against anything that bears the name "Islam" In other words, she was a shame to Islam and is a shame to Christianity.
You may have seen this kind of lost individuals before, but this kind of people live for the moment and as such get to be quickly exited and loose their own integrity.
I am sure she will take her dream of di-islamification of Iran to her grave and be yet another unimportant collection to the dust bin of hstory as an insignificant bit! Her other close ilks here would certainly follow!
Again, welcome aboard!
;-)
Amir
by benross on Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:49 AM PDTI turned this blog to a shamble. I hope you are happy now.
Amir....provide a photo
by Khashayarsha on Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:36 AM PDTI really don't care what your "Globalsecurity" and "VOA" friends write - the "keys to paradise" story is a myth. I haveen't seen one photo of a child soldier from the Iran-Iraq war with a plastic key.
It is just one of the "horror stories" put out by the MKO and others.
It is now clear that all your information on Iran is from dubious western sources and nothing first-hand whatsoever.
You are a total disgrace.
به یزدان که گر
Cost-of-ProgressFri Jul 09, 2010 10:13 AM PDT
به یزدان که گر ما خرد داشتیم
کجا این سر انجام بد داشتیم
بابا این طرف را ولش کننین شما فکر میکنید با این مزدور ها میشه با منطق صحبت کرد؟ این طرف دیروز یوسف بزرگمهر بود امروز خشایار. اصلان ایرونی نیست.
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Plastic keys to heaven is not the issue, here are links anyway
by AMIR1973 on Fri Jul 09, 2010 10:09 AM PDTThe issue is sending 12 year-old boys to act as human minesweepers, but since you asked for it, here goes:
//www.crimesofwar.org/thebook/iran-iraq-war.html
//www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1985/SRE.htm
//tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Iran-IraqWar
"During the Iran-Iraq War, the Ayatollah Khomeini imported 500,000 small plastic keys from Taiwan. The trinkets were meant to be inspirational. After Iraq invaded in September 1980, it had quickly become clear that Iran's forces were no match for Saddam Hussein's professional, well-armed military. To compensate for their disadvantage, Khomeini sent Iranian children, some as young as twelve years old, to the front lines. There, they marched in formation across minefields toward the enemy, clearing a path with their bodies. Before every mission, one of the Taiwanese keys would be hung around each child's neck. It was supposed to open the gates to paradise for them.
At one point, however, the earthly gore became a matter of concern. "In the past," wrote the semi-official Iranian daily Ettelaat as the war raged on, "we had child-volunteers: 14-, 15-, and 16-year-olds. They went into the minefields. Their eyes saw nothing. Their ears heard nothing. And then, a few moments later, one saw clouds of dust. When the dust had settled again, there was nothing more to be seen of them. Somewhere, widely scattered in the landscape, there lay scraps of burnt flesh and pieces of bone." Such scenes would henceforth be avoided, Ettelaat assured its readers. "Before entering the minefields, the children [now] wrap themselves in blankets and they roll on the ground, so that their body parts stay together after the explosion of the mines and one can carry them to the graves."
These children who rolled to their deaths were part of the Basiji, a mass movement created by Khomeini in 1979 and militarized after the war started in order to supplement his beleaguered army.The Basij Mostazafan--or "mobilization of the oppressed"--was essentially a volunteer militia, most of whose members were not yet 18. They went enthusiastically, and by the thousands, to their own destruction. "The young men cleared the mines with their own bodies," one veteran of the Iran-Iraq War recalled in 2002 to the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine. "It was sometimes like a race. Even without the commander's orders, everyone wanted to be first."
[anti]-khashayar
by Onlyiran on Fri Jul 09, 2010 09:45 AM PDTas benross already said, does it really matter if 12 year olds had keys around their necks or were sent to battlefields without the keys? Can you stop the IRI "safsateh" and focus on the issue? Tey were child soldiers. That is a war crime and a crime against humanity. Do you agree that those in the IRI responsible for those crimes should be put on trial for their crimes against humanity or are you going to ask for pictures of the plastic keys?
Iran leads the world in science
by Khashayarsha on Fri Jul 09, 2010 09:42 AM PDTFirstly, the "article" from the Brookings institute did not show any child soldiers with keys to paradise. Maybe you should learn what evidence means.
Secondly, Amir compounds his ignorance and contempt for his homeland. From cloning, to stem cell research, solar power to pharmaceuticals, Iran is a major power in science.
Iran showing fastest scientific growth of any country
//www.newscientist.com/article/dn18546-iran-s...
Thanks for Iran's excellenet education system, Iran reguarly gets gold medals at math and science olympiads.
But Amir the traitor doesn't like to know or hear about the achievements of the Iranian people.
Benross
by Onlyiran on Fri Jul 09, 2010 08:43 AM PDTWhile Hitler was in power, there was not one shred of evidence that gypsies and jews were being exterminated.
I don't think the plastic key is the issue anyway. The issue is child solders.
Thank you for this wonderful statement. I have to say, benross, that you are one of the most intelligent and articulate thinkers and commentators on this site. I always enjoy reading your comments.
Dear Goebbels
by benross on Fri Jul 09, 2010 08:34 AM PDTWhile Hitler was in power, there was not one shred of evidence that gypsies and jews were being exterminated.
I don't think the plastic key is the issue anyway. The issue is child solders. Does anybody need one shred of evidence for that too?
Then again, discussing with Goebbels like him or Nilufar of Abarmard and others is a big mistake from the get go. It turns an informative blog to this mess.
Lessons from an Islamist :-)
by AMIR1973 on Fri Jul 09, 2010 08:21 AM PDTOh yeah, IRI represents the very pinnacle of learning and scholarship. It is a leading force in industry and technology. It will soon surpass Japan, the U.S., and Europe (if it hasn't already done so).
BTW, I read Plato's Republic years ago. You can search for "Plato" AND "infanticide" to read more on the matter. But talking to an Islamist is pretty fruitless, you have to admit :-)
[anti]-khashayar - Here it is
by Onlyiran on Fri Jul 09, 2010 08:06 AM PDTCan you give me one shred of evidence that young basijis were ever given "plastic keys to heaven"? This is just MKO lies and propaganda.
Here it is sister:
//www.brookings.edu/views/articles/fellows/singer20051215.pdf
It's on page 5 of the study. It shows how your beloved regime recruited and used child soldiers in its war with Iraq.
More lies
by Khashayarsha on Fri Jul 09, 2010 07:48 AM PDTCan you give me one shred of evidence that young basijis were ever given "plastic keys to heaven"? This is just MKO lies and propaganda.
As for Plato, he recommended abortion for mothers who were too old. As such, he was no different from many pro-choice advocates in the US.
Open a book, read it....for a change.
IRI is the ideal state :-)
by AMIR1973 on Fri Jul 09, 2010 06:34 AM PDTSince Plato's Republic also endorses infanticide, we now apparently have a motive for the IRI giving 12 year-old boys plastic keys to heaven and using them as human minesweepers. Oh, how philosophical and enlightened of the Islamist goons :-)
Your beloved Rapist Regime (though, of course, the love affair is a long distance one since you live in the West in the manner of a parasite) is Plato's Republic and 7th century Arabia all in one. Sure, it is :-)
Amir the philistine - learn something for once
by Khashayarsha on Fri Jul 09, 2010 06:12 AM PDTThe whole concept of a philosopher-king (vali-e-faqih) supported by a council of guardians (shura ye negahban) is a reflection of Plato's vision of the ideal state.
Aristotle's "polity", on the other hand, is a blend of constitutionalism, oligarchy and democracy - the republican ideal.
It is widely acknowledged that Khomeini was inspired by Plato
//agonist.org/story/2004/11/22/161222/84
In the Islamic world, both Aristotle and Plato are regarded as "sheikhs" even though they were pagans.
I really fear that Iran will be plunged into darkness if Amir ever had his way. It would mean the end of Persian civilization.
Amir
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Jul 09, 2010 04:55 AM PDTbetter be careful what you say about Shepesh. Next thing you know the Islamists will say we are racist against Shepesh :-)
Islam
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Jul 09, 2010 04:53 AM PDTwas a cultural coma that Iran went into. Once in a while we open our eyes but Islamists are quick to try to bash us back.
Islam has contributed nothing to Iran rather taken. The whole so called Islamic golden age was their rape of Iranian culture. But Islam used up what life Iranian culture had and returned nothing. Therefore the golden age was over when they sucked out all the life out of Iran. One by one Iranians like myself are waking up. We are throwing aside Islam and joining the civilized world. Pre Islam we had a great civilization. After Islam we will regain another great civilization. With ~1400 years of sleep.
To Islamists like "Kh...": Islam is a part of *your* culture not mine. Don't taint me with your own weakness. You keep saying it because you are afraid that Iranian are rejecting Islam. That scares the heck out of you because the gig is up.
I read this an it is plain that the Khab is Islam and awakening is rejecting it.
IRI: Platonic AND Aristotelian :-)
by AMIR1973 on Fri Jul 09, 2010 04:01 AM PDTWho knew that a bunch of "akhoond-e shepeshoo" and their goons (aka IRGC & Basijis) could wax so philosophical? Thanks, Yousef/Reza, I'm starting to see the benefits of the IRI's savagery. Or is lashing someone 99 times merely Socratic? :-)
Islam is part of Iranian identity
by Khashayarsha on Fri Jul 09, 2010 02:12 AM PDTActually, if you must know, Khashayar is an odd choice because the Achaemenid kings are not given much importance by Shia jurists.
Rather, it is the Sassanian dynasty that is recognized as playing a major role in the beginnings of Islamic civilization.
After all, Imam Hussein married one of the daughters of the last Sassanian king Yazdegerd , i.e. Shahrbanoo, and so the bloodline of the Imams is partly Persian.
Also, much of the Sassanian bureucracy and legal system was borrowed by the Abbasid Caliphate in the city of Bagh-dad (derived from two persian words).
Islam, especially the Shia sect, is now part of Iranian identity. The transition of Iran from Zoroastrianism to Islam is seen in Rozeba's conversion to become Salman Farsi.
Islam was a cultural rennaisance for Iran - poetry, art, architecture, science, learning, music and many things we recognize as "Persian" derive from the Golden Age of the Islamic period.
The Islamic Republic of Iran combines Islamic jurisprudence with constitutional republicanism, the religious with the secular - Plato with Aristotle, if you are learned enough to understand.
Khahsyarshah
by Doctor X on Thu Jul 08, 2010 08:58 PM PDTWhy are we complaining about "anti-imperialistic" terms while there are such terms as "Great satan"? what would you make of that and how do you rationalize/justify/explain that?
Political islam IS an Ideology. It is not same as Islam as a religion , otherwise it would not have had "political" attached to it. It is a doctrine that is employed to directly rule one entire nation. It has a direct hand in every aspect of one government, how, then is it going to fulfill the sacred tenets of a "faith" when it intentionally gets involved with running affairs of a country which is a purely political matter?
why is it that islamists use iranian pre islam names & symbols?
by fooladi on Thu Jul 08, 2010 07:41 PM PDTon internet? I mean wouldnt you think they should use islamic names like "Khadije" and "abolfazl" istead of "niloofar" and "Khashayar"? Are they ashamed of the islamist ideology they defend here or are they try to pretend to be "pure iranians" who just loved to be captured, raped and murdered by arab armies? I think all above.
"Many souls in one body" :-)
by AMIR1973 on Thu Jul 08, 2010 06:19 PM PDTAs for my own identity, I like to think I am many souls in the one body.
Psychiatrists call that Multiple Personality Disorder. A combination of psychotherapy and antipsychotic medications may do you some good. Unfortunately, there is no "cure" for Islamism other than a process of de-Islamistization (in the same manner that Germany underwent de-Nazification). By any chance, are Yousef Bozorgmehr/Reza Esfandiari included among the many souls who have been in your body? Just wondering :-)
I'll be sure to pass your regards on to Michael and Reza (the other one--not Esfandiari/Bozorgmehr), as well as Masood & Maryam, Binyamin, and Barack. With love, Amir :-)
I lived in
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Jul 08, 2010 05:08 PM PDTIran under the Pahlavi regime. It was great. I loved it. I wish it would return again. The biggest mistake he made was to be to soft on Islamists. Savak was way to mild and should have done a better job on Islamists.
So called "Khashayar". This is your Islamist way to insult Persian kings? By associating their names with your Islamist garbage.
I tell you want an Islamist is:
This as opposed to regular Muslims who at least have some degree of peacefulness.
Amir the neo-imperialist
by Khashayarsha on Thu Jul 08, 2010 03:21 PM PDTOnce again, "Islamism" is an imperialist term, like that of "Mohammedanism". It is used by those anti-Islamic forces who want to brand political Islam an ideology when it is the direct fulfillment of all the sacred tenets of the faith.
As for my own identity, I like to think I am many souls in the one body.
besyar ravan, yek tan.
Btw, send my regards to Reza Pahlavi and Michael Ledeen.
Khashayarsha: Speaking of hoqqebazi (aka Islamism)
by AMIR1973 on Thu Jul 08, 2010 02:52 PM PDTI know you said there's no such thing as Islamism, but there is such a thing as hoqqebazi. It starts with claiming that you saw Khomeini's face in the moon and ends with residing in the decadent West while at the same time cheering on the worst regime in recent Iranian history.
This is the twisted mindset of these sick people.
Says the Islamist who keeps issuing empty threats to yours truly. Right now, I am very frightened of Yousef Bozorgmehr/Reza Esfandiari/Khashayarsha's threats. Very, very frightened :-)
Khashayarsha
by khaleh mosheh on Thu Jul 08, 2010 02:36 PM PDTWelcome Aboard!
(I said it so you don't have to!- under a different guise that is)
khashayar
by Niloufar Parsi on Thu Jul 08, 2010 02:36 PM PDTwell said
Peace
Rosie - leave the good pastor alone
by Khashayarsha on Thu Jul 08, 2010 02:30 PM PDTForget Pastor, Amir would dearly love to see Obama bomb Iran and kill thousands of Iranians.
He is not alone. There are some in Iran who want to do the same.
//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10296...
"PARVANEH"
"So, I kiss the hands that sign the sanctions against Iran. I'd love to
see more, I'd love to see Iran bankrupt and the nuclear facilities being
bombed. We are desperate because we can't do anything but demonstrate."
Amazingly she also says:
"I am a complete patriot, I love Iran. But when my husband's course is
finished, we will emigrate to the US."
Don't be Hoqqebaz: If you love Iran you don't want to see her bombed. This is the twisted mindset of these sick people.
Pastor 'Bombin Bill' Rennick,
by Rosie. on Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:24 PM PDTyou wrote:
Trust me bombing does work
Come to think of it, Bombin' Bill. all you EVER write, in one form or another, is trust me tbombing will work'. It's like a mantra with you.
You're kidding, right? You came here to show how sick bombing would be and that's why you have a cartoon character of a rotund Baptist preacher for an avatar, right?
And if wrong, you either need mucho help or for someone to drop you from a plane to bomb a nuclear facility. .
That should work.
p.x. You don't happen to have another account with a black and white photo avatar of a somewhat dour looking gentleman with a distinctly 50's flair and a bowtie, do you?