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Play the long game
15-Nov-2010
Sometime in the next few weeks, if the parties can agree on a place and date convenient to all sides, Iran and the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany, known as the "P5+1," will meet for the first time since October 2009 to revive diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program. This is welcome news for U.S. President Barack Obama who, almost two years into his first term, has learned the hard way that diplomacy with Iran is neither quick nor easy.
The posturing has already begun. To create greater political space at home, administration officials have told the media that a new and tougher proposal will be presented to the Iranians. The United States will negotiate from a position of strength, the White House says, as a result of the surprisingly harsh sanctions that have been imposed on Iran, both by the U.N. Security Council and unilaterally by individual countries.
The Iranians are trying to sound equally confident: Sanctions, while biting, have not affected Iran's nuclear calculus, they say. In fact, Tehran contends that it is now in a stronger position due to its larger stockpile of low-enriched uranium, its progress on 20 percent enriched uranium, and the imminent activation of the Bushehr nuclear plant, which is only weeks from going online.
The reality is that neither side has gained the upper hand since 13 months ago, when the last round of talks commenced. The increased international pressure may have sharpened Iran's choices, but the Obama administration has no illusions that sanctions alone will cause the Islamic Republic to relent on its nuclear ambitions. Neither Washington nor Tehran has time on its side.
While the Iranian government has regained control after brutally suppressing pro-democracy protests, it faces growing isolation and dire economic realities. And while the failed talks in October 2009 strengthened the White House's ability to impose tougher sanctions on Iran, the same will not be true going forward. The value of greater international unity around sanctions will be marginal compared with the value of taking first steps toward a diplomatic resolution of the longstanding issues that fuel U.S.-Iran enmity. This time around, diplomacy must succeed for the sake of resolving the conflict, not for the sake of creating an impetus for more sanctions.
So what can be done differently this time around? The Obama administration should carefully study the failed negotiations of October 2009 and adjust its approach to take into account the lessons learned from that round of talks. Although Iran clearly bears a great deal of responsibility for the stalemate of the past 13 months, there is also room for improvement in the U.S. approach. Here is a list of the five lessons that diplomats should keep in mind before stepping into the room with Iranian negotiators.
1) Don't Let the Fuel-Swap Deal Hold the Negotiation Process Hostage
In October 2009, the United States expressed its willingness to discuss a range of issues with Iran -- but only after the Islamic Republic agreed to ship out 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium in return for fuel rods to power Tehran's research reactor. The Obama administration saw this deal as a confidence-building measure and a necessary step to push back against domestic critics of diplomacy, reduce Iran's nuclear breakout capability, and create more time for dialogue.
The plan faltered when the Iranians did not -- or could not -- agree. But the fact that comprehensive diplomacy had been made conditional on the fuel-swap deal meant that much-needed talks on issues such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and human rights were then stalled, leaving all parties in a worse situation.
In the future, any potential iteration of the reactor deal should be treated as the tactical confidence-building measure it is, not a strategic sine qua non. Failure to cut a deal on this single issue should not mean that the entire agenda of U.S.-Iran negotiations grinds to a halt.
2) Get by with a Little Help from Your Friends
Iran's relationship with every one of the "P5+1" countries ranges from bad to worse. Particularly between the United States and Iran, habits developed over 30 years of enmity are tough to break. There is a huge reservoir of mistrust, suspicion, and hostility. Resolving the nuclear dispute through a mechanism almost completely void of trust is a formidable task. Although the Security Council process cannot be sidestepped, it can be complemented by relying on states that -- due to their cordial relations with both the permanent members and Iran -- can inject trust into the diplomatic process.
Turkish and Brazilian diplomats, who worked furiously from November 2009 to May 2010 in an attempt to breathe life into a fuel-swap deal, have spent more time engaged in diplomacy with Iran recently than the entire P5+1 combined. This experience strengthened their relationships with all relevant Iranian parties and gave them valuable insights into the Iranian perspective. If the negotiations are to succeed, the trust that Turkey and Brazil have built will be indispensable.
3) Talk to Everyone in Iran -- Directly
As the only permanent member of the U.N. Security Council that does not have a direct channel to Iran, Washington is at a significant disadvantage. Obama administration officials recognize that, on numerous instances this past fall, opportunities to salvage the fuel-swap deal existed -- if only the United States and Iran could speak to each other directly. Going forward, efforts should be made to quickly establish such a channel. And the belief that dialogue is only possible if a singular authentic channel to Iran is found must be discarded. Such a channel doesn't exist.
Rather, Washington should recognize that there are many power centers in Iran, all of which need to be included in the process. Just as no country expects to sign a significant deal with the United States without addressing the concerns of the White House, State Department, Pentagon, and Congress, no major decision is likely to be made in Iran unless a range of key stakeholders is brought into the discussion. This partly explains Turkey and Brazil's success in getting Iran to agree to the U.S. modalities of the nuclear swap. Their diplomacy with Iran was not focused on a single stakeholder in Tehran. Rather, these countries built confidence with and won support for their mediation from all relevant Iranian power centers.
If direct engagement with the Majlis, the supreme leader's office, and other political centers and factions isn't immediately possible, negotiators must be willing to give them time, so that these stakeholders' inclination to scuttle a deal that they were not a part of is neutralized. Pressing Iran's fractured political system to give a quick yes usually results in them saying no. A first step toward strengthening the diplomatic efforts would be to revise the "no contact" policy that prohibits U.S. diplomats from interacting with their Iranian counterparts.
4) Don't Forget Human Rights
Reducing 30 years of wide-ranging U.S.-Iran tensions to a single-variable negotiation is not a formula for success. As the agenda enlarges and the conversation continues, the United States must address the Islamic Republic's human rights abuses. The human rights violations committed by the Iranian government in the aftermath of the June 2009 presidential election were a clear violation of Iran's international obligations -- regardless of whether there was fraud in the election, regardless of who had won the election, and indeed, regardless of whether there had been any election. The Obama administration hasn't pressed the issue, both to protect pro-democracy activists within the country and to avoid seeming to interfere, something neither the Green Movement's leaders nor the government would likely be enthused about.
But the lack of an adequate response has done more harm than good. In the eyes of some in the Iranian Green Movement, Washington seemed so eager to secure a nuclear deal that it was ready to sacrifice the Iranian people's human rights in the process. The setup appears analogous to the state of relations that existed under the shah: a relationship centered on security at the expense of basic freedoms, and the cardinal sin that poisons relations between the two countries to this day.
A healthy, long-term relationship with Iran cannot be built if the current reservoir of American soft power among the Iranian population is squandered for the sake of a nuclear deal. Just as Iranians' respect and admiration for American achievements, values, and culture would be jeopardized in the event of a military attack on Iran, silence on human rights will likewise deplete this crucial strategic asset.
This is particularly important because an Iranian opening to the United States will likely be accompanied with a tightening of domestic restrictions as the government will not want its policy to be understood as a sign of weakness.
5) Play the Long Game
Obama shouldn't kid himself, or the American public: Diplomacy with Iran is hard, and it's going to get harder. Since Obama took office, political space in Washington to pursue diplomacy with Iran has consistently shrunk. This has primarily been caused by the actions of the Iranian government, including the election fraud and post-election abuses committed by Tehran. And, after the Republican midterm election victory, it's only going to shrink more.
The Obama administration must go into the talks focused on the long-term benefits of engaging Iran. It also must be willing to make the political investment necessary to give the process a chance to succeed. If the administration is going to retreat at the first sign of Iranian intransigence or congressional opposition -- which are both probably inevitable -- then it might be better not to embark on a new round of diplomacy to begin with.
An institutionalized enmity that has taken 30 years to build will not be undone through a few meetings over the course of a few weeks. Neither side should expect that its first offer will be accepted. A generation of officials in the United States and Iran has made their careers by proving how nasty they can be to the other side. It is very easy to slip back into old patterns if an attempt to break the deadlock doesn't yield immediate results.
Success will only come if diplomats are willing to play the long game, placing a premium on patience and long-term progress rather than quick fixes aimed at appeasing skeptical and impatient domestic political constituencies, whether in Tehran or in Washington.
This article originally appeared in Foreign Policy magazine.
AUTHORS
Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council. Reza Marashi is director of research at the National Iranian American Council and a former Iran desk officer at the U.S. State Department.
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Mola No-aid-in-deen
by Tavana on Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:03 PM PSTPicky, picky, picky as with all Molas:
"We even have some evidence that [Ayatollah] Khamenei now is beginning to wonder if [President] Ahmadinejad is lying to him about the impact of the sanctions on the economy,"
Well, well, well. No matter of what Mr. Criminality (Gates) says: Once a lier always a lier. Has the "Most Supreme Mola of All" always been truthful himself?? Did not the regime loose whatever had been left of his "creditability" two years ago?? Only the liers eat their hearts out with their lies.
"Military action would only unite the country against the West"
by Mola Nasredeen on Tue Nov 16, 2010 07:16 PM PSTUS Secretary of Defence Rober Gates addressing the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council in Washington said (today) that military action would only "bring together a divided nation" and make Tehran's weapons programme "deeper and more covert". Eat your hearts out.
//www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11769092
Some of these comments reek with the smell of hatred
by Mola Nasredeen on Tue Nov 16, 2010 07:03 PM PSTtowards Iranians and Iran. My question to this few is:
Why do you waste your time on this website if you hate us so much?
And my conclusion is: That's why we need organizations such a NIAC and individuals such as Parsi to stand with us and protect us from these sharks.
Kind of You
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 01:32 PM PSTfor the disturbed opinion piece.Alot of false premise from begining to end and topics that are opinions,not proven.Also,Zoroastrianism is the oldest Monotheistic Religion,not Judaism.Glad we 'American's recognized that in this so-called 'Polling Data'...
vildemose Jan
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Nov 16, 2010 01:15 PM PSTThe problem with the survey is that it has trick questions in it. There are actully *four* stooges in three stooges. Larry; Curly; Moe AND Shemp.
For beloved Escape
by vildemose on Tue Nov 16, 2010 12:48 PM PST//www.alternet.org/story/148826/16_of_the_dumbest_things_americans_believe_--_and_the_right-wing_lies_behind_them/
Escape: "I don't worship establishment"
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:50 AM PSTThe thing is with you not wearing underpants and your religious tendencies, the Catholic priest maybe worshiping you.
Mehrdad
Oh good one
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:41 AM PSTI didn't know you had a sense of Humour.It is funny too because I don't worship establishment.I leave that to the Kommunist.
Wow Escape, without underpants and new TSA screening rule
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:35 AM PSTThere will be a show to watch when you travel by plane
Only advise, make sure the screening guy is not a Catholic priest.
Mehrdad
Iranians face the same Negotiation of Hamas and Hezi's
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:34 AM PSTThe more I think of this comment I made about Isreal and the Isreali's being expected to 'Negotiate' with Hamas and Hezi's,just remind's me this is the same thing Iranian's face..
Underwear is for people who shove Bombs up their
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:22 AM PSTBackside Mehrdad but I do own some 'China'.Yes 'Kommunism' is a scientifically proven failure and has created AS MANY AND MORE ATROCITIES as have happened to Iranians..Now try to imagine that.
Amen to the Lord,look how the 10 commandments would solve the problems of the world.Now don't argue that too for God's sake..
Escape: Yeap, lets praise the Lord
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:47 AM PSTFor us not have negotiated with "Kommunisum"
Oops, we already have and a good portion of US is owned by the damned Kommunist (Chinese)
The very underpants you are wearing or the laptop you are using to write this is probably made in China
That is OXYMORON for you.
Praise the Lord!!!!
اونوقت میرن خر از قبرس میارند
Mehrdad
Quite frankly I don't trust alot of Iranian's motives as well
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:36 AM PSTEspecially when they went out of their way to 'buddy' up to Saddam Hussein,their biggest enemy.That show's how desperate and scared they became when they saw his devastation.
Negotiation with Hamas and Hezi's
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:31 AM PSTis as big of a OXYMORON as is the words ARAB AND PEACE together.
Makes about as much sense as Kommunism......
Moola, Rahm, & Parsi Alliance
by Tavana on Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:12 AM PSTAs Moola is a slang for Money and it has nothing to do with being religious/righteous, Rahm is for Grace & Obama's aid has no concept of that, and finally Parsi is for Persian & Trita represents none of that. Is not such combo which has currently occupied the trio of Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan???
we have a similar situation here in the US
by vildemose on Tue Nov 16, 2010 09:55 AM PSTwhere the gov't is captured by corporations as Iran is captured by False Gods and False priests.
This is what Keith suggesting.
"An uprising of the reasonable is our only chance." - Keith Olbermann
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=15MKo2VqVM0&feature=player_embedded
"The functionaries of every government have propensities to command at will the liberty and property of their constituents. There is no safe deposit for these but with the people themselves, nor can they be safe with them without information. Where the press is free, and every man able to read, all is safe." --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816. ME 14:384
Escape and Doctor Mohandes
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 09:46 AM PSTThis 'game' is being played on Iranian people's lives and we don't appreciate it.
If some Americans weren't as easily fooled by the propagandist that Iran has no ability or plan to destroy Israel, they would not so sheepishly fooled by it.
If you pull your head out of Israel sand and see for yourself, you will see that Israel has had best opportunity for peace with all Arab nations for years now but its greed for land grab fails them to cease on that opportunity. Go ahead and google Arab peace initiative.
DM: (hope you don't mind abbreviating your name)
It is a case of either/or here and I am failing to see the Oxymoron in it.
I support armed uprising BUT hope AND wish that the regime change and resistance can be accomplished in a peaceful manner by Iranians.
Mehrdad
VPK:
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 09:25 AM PST"I do not trust either American motives or their competence. I agree that change is best initiated from inside Iran."
I agree with you whole heartedly here. I distrust American motive far more and there are ample proof for it. In fact there are hardly any evidence of good will from US towards true democracy in ME and Iran in particular.
"The problem is that change was initiated but was violently suppressed"
I think the problem is more with us and that "pool meekham zyad meekham zod ham meekam" syndrome.
Any regime change/revolution or what ever we want to call it, is hard and painful work, the price is high and the work is tough and we are just not there yet. Those of us specially in the exile (whether self imposed or otherwise) we are just not united, not willing to sacrifice the slightest and expecting much from those kids in Iran. This is specially true, given the violent nature of IRI.
Lets examine this quickly, shall we:
- From the millions of us outside and in opposition, how many did go back to join the uprising?
- From the millions of us outside and in opposition, how much financially have we helped those who are paying high price for fighting the regime?
- From the millions of us outside and in opposition, how many are united under one leadership and one voice?
I think, I don't need to go on here and you get the jest of it, right?
Lastly in regards to foreign fighters whether it is in Arab nature (Hezbollah) or White skin (Americans), it make no difference and my position has been clear. I spent 21 months fighting against Saddam army and I have experienced first hand what war is all about. I will not want to have to go back, specially in my age, and have to defend my mother land against foreign mercenaries again. Nor I want to see the millions of Iranians who were affected in the last war, much like the millions of Iraqis pay that high price again.
If I ever, for the slightest bit, felt that their military involvement is to the benefit of Iranian people, I would probably join them myself. But they have proven over and over again that they sell themselves to devil for their greed and that is the only thing they are after.
Mehrdad
Doesn't register does it Mehrdad
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 09:18 AM PSTThe whole 'game' is about Isreal and the IRI's threat to destroy it.
Read that about 20 times and think it over..
Hopefully with the departure of
by Mola Nasredeen on Tue Nov 16, 2010 08:41 AM PSTBavafa
by Doctor mohandes on Tue Nov 16, 2010 08:37 AM PSTAn armed Uprising against anyone or any establishement By definition can never happen in a peaceful manner :)))
It is a big time Oxymoron.
Mehrdad
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Nov 16, 2010 08:32 AM PSTThe issue of USA Iran relations are intimately tied with nature of regime. In fact to nature of *both* regimes. There is no question some people hope that America will actively help remove the Islamic Republic.
I personally think it is wishful thinking. I do not trust either American motives or their competence. I agree that change is best initiated from inside Iran. The problem is that change was initiated but was violently suppressed. With foreign help: many believe that Palestinian and Lebanese were used. That means we already have outside involvement. Therefore I do understand positions of those who want a more severe approach.
Here is a question: If Islamist Republic unleashes Palestinian and Hizbolah goons on Iran. What would you do? What should the world specially the diaspora do. I think that would be a game changter.
They go that path and they have already opened the door. VPK
Escape, I had to read your post three times to make sense of it
by Bavafa on Tue Nov 16, 2010 08:01 AM PSTHaving said that, if you had read the article itself you would have known that the topic of discussion is US-Iran relationship and rapprochement options and not regime change, a revolution or coup d'état.
For your information, since you are so eager to know, I have been advocating that any change in Iran political system must be coming from within and by Iranian people, hence my opposition to war or any foreign military intervention.
I support armed uprising against the mullah by Iranian people but hope it can be done in a peaceful resistance.
And I really did not understand the gibberish you babbled about Israel so I refrain in making comments in that regard since I didn't understand your meaning of it.
Mehrdad
Nay
by Escape on Tue Nov 16, 2010 12:12 AM PSTNay Mehrdad and Yea you did miss a possible way forward and that is a overthrow and stampeding of Mullahs by thousands of Irate Iranians.Stomp your Palestinian Leaders Heads to the ground with a massive charge of a Million Iranians..But that will never happened as long as they all united against Isreal and the regime is riding the 'Death to Isreal' train..
Why don't you come down off the fence and take that big brave stand you take on Isreal.,against the IRI.Instead of this 'Oh I know they are bad but do you want war with Iran?" tactic of your own.Your own plenty of time blabbing isn't it..We know your own choice is Numero 3 - Do Nothing...Where is your own hints at a possible way forward?
I think you know the only way possible forward is to get off the 'Down With Isreal' train but you love riding it so much.
It certainly isn't the "Peace Train'...
ao
by shushtari on Mon Nov 15, 2010 09:18 PM PSTright on the money again.....
very funny that these appeasers want to 'talk' to these barbarians who have butchered more iranians, and have done more harm to iran, than the mongols
while the shah, despite his mistakes, did NOT resort to violence to crush these traitors- something which he should have done
Shushtari, you bring up an excellent point
by Anonymous Observer on Mon Nov 15, 2010 09:00 PM PSTThese same fossil "revolutionaries" who are here and elsewhere constantly telling us that the ONLY way to deal with the IR is to talk to it, and "reason" with it (LOL) are the ones who were insisting 31 years ago that the ONLY way to deal with the Shah was to forcibly remove him via a violent revolution, regardless of the clusterf**k of a result that was all but inevitable. This is even when the Shah admitted his mistakes and placed one of his arch critics, and a prominent member of the opposition, Shapour Bakhtiar, in charge--something that the IR will never do, even if it has to gun down every man, woman and child in Iran.
They're nothing but a bunch of loudmouth hypocrites. The worst thing is that they-just like the IR which claims that its 60 year old re-painted F-5's are homemade fighter aircraft called "Saegheh"--think that the audience is stupid.
why didn't they try to negotiate with the shah????
by shushtari on Mon Nov 15, 2010 08:46 PM PSTwas that illiterate psychopath, khomeini, a better person for iran???!
they shah was no angel, but he was a trillion times better than the monsters who have destroyed iran over the past 31 years
why do the mullahs always get a second lease on life, when they are about to be pushed over the edge?
the reason is very clear, because that while they rule iran, the oil and resources are quietly being 'given away' to the highest bidder.
there has never been any sort of accountability on the sale of our oil for the past 31 years.....the meters at kharg island have never been repaired after the war- and for good reason, the mullahs don't want anyone to know how much they have stolen, plundered and stashed away in dirty banks in switzerland and other vulture states.
so 'keep negotiating' parsi, since you obviously want to prolong the miserable life of the thieves ruling our country
VPK:
by G. Rahmanian on Mon Nov 15, 2010 05:12 PM PSTAmazing to see a supporter of Ahmadinejad calling those who oppose the ragtime, AIPAC agents! Q should revisit his own posts after the presidential election of last year. It was funny that his "sister" Jaleho was egging him on until another regime supporter told him to call it quits!!! He even changed his avatar after that.One example of his bitter reaction at the time can be found among his blogs. Look for the blog dated, June 14, 2009 and read Jaleho's reaction as well.
VPK, no there really isn't a lot more out of that mob
by Q on Mon Nov 15, 2010 04:52 PM PSTPlease....
I'm actually not the one who came up with "IRI BAD" description. It was written by an American who had the misfortune of reading IC comments a while back.
sure, it's not just "IRI BAD", there's also pent up hatred, anger, character assassination, islamophobia, racist remarks, and occasional calls for war and sanctions, but that's about it!
Any sane person reading such irrational hatred knows that this group is too far gone to be a part of any rational solution. The only thing the mob is good for is for being a tool for other well organized agendas, such as that of AIPAC.
Just look how they consistently get you to attack and rip apart any of your own respected hamvatan like rabid dogs. For what? Just for even slightly deviating from the Israeli agenda!
A "tool" is exactly the right word.
An Internal Toxic Fish
by Demo on Mon Nov 15, 2010 04:06 PM PST“What would any self respecting national leader of any political persuation ???, even a fully democratic one, do in the face of being bullied by global powers? Would that person just give up national rights and expect to stay in power?”
The implied leader in the above question has been once again proving that the real reforms/changes must begin from the bottom & not from the top, especially is such is incited by a “fanciful” movement colored with deceptions/deceits. Like another M&M sweet talker & “human rights” defender(pretender rather) on this site all the questions put as “arbadeh” signs are no more than voices of detractions from the main issues with the current regime in IRAN. People in IRAN indeed enjoy all kinds of rights such as their rights in “vast corruption”, “saying lies”, “hearing lies”, “bribery”, “drugs addictions”. “prostitution”, “buying freedom from prosecution”, “stealing”, “streets arbadeh keshee”, “falsifying documents”, “kissing assess”. & go on & on with a never ending list of mischief. The real “Q” is why, why, why, why, why, ‘’’’’’’??? And these have been going on for past 31 years while the country’s commonwealth has been occupied by only 1% of they population as they are called by the Supreme Chief as “Khavas.” If the country had not been saturated with those mentioned vices & the brains had been functioning properly would anybody with a right mind have had participated in the “phony” elections of 2 years ago after watching the “the 4 presidential candidates’ debates” on their TV’s??? (Perhaps nobody did). STOP! STOP! STOP! Detracting people with Ahmadinejad (A Nobody!!) Presidency, Mousavi Greenish Gestures, Nuclear Issues, Human Rights, Western Democracy, etc. if there is still a bit of love for our homeland. The country is suffering from a long list of internal diseases. Those will eventually lead to its destruction, and not the nuclear attacks by the outsiders.