Iran is Not Winning

Bad news for Iran: Lebanon and Syria

Balatarin
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Iran is Not Winning
by Josef Olmert
28-Apr-2011
 

The current Middle East mayhem is far from over. The situation is fluid in many countries, but one important interim conclusion is coming to the open, and it is positive: The Islamic Republic is not emerging victorious as the sectarian Sunni-Shiite schism seems to have a growing impact.

This is bad news to the Ayatollahs in Tehran. Judging by their propaganda and that of their Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon and the Syrian regime, all can be easily explained with the usual charge: that the American-Zionist plot is in full force. Simple? Not any more, as we can learn from the events in Syria and Lebanon.

Let's start with the latter. For almost three months Hezbollah has been trying, in vain, to establish a new government, to replace that of the pro-Saudi and pro-American Sunni Sa'ad Hariri. By political tradition, Lebanon's PM is always a Sunni Muslim, and so is the Hezbollah choice to the job, billionaire Najib Mikati. The problem is that money does not seem to work this time, as Mikati lacks popular Sunni support which is still given to Hariri. The Sunnis make no bones that the new proposed government is likely to be a Shiite-dominated, pro-Iranian stooge and they express their disenchantment in unmistakable sectarian terms.

Mikati himself tries to show his independence, but he fools no one. When Hariri, who is still the acting PM started to sharpen his anti-Iranian rhetoric, Mikati made some disparaging comments, which were greeted with derision. To be sure, Lebanon's politics are a mosaic of many conflicting loyalties, so pinning Mikati's failure only on his closeness to Hezbollah and its Iranian mentors may be somewhat of a stretch.

But then comes the Syrian factor, and the picture starts to make much more sense. A Lebanese government usually needs to get the blessing of the big brother in Damascus. Rafiq Hariri, Sa'ad's father and predecessor as PM, tried to evade what became obvious, and paid in his life in February of 2005, in what was a joint Syrian-Hezbollah operation.

For awhile, Sa'ad Hariri managed to form a status-quo of convenience with his father's killers, who a few months ago felt strong enough to topple him. They seem to have miscalculated, as Bashar Assad has found out much to his, as well as Hezbollah's and Iran's chagrin.

Syria is burning, and the situation shows no signs of calming down. According to Syrian sources, 200 were already killed, and there are much higher estimates as well. The riots spread all over the Sunni areas of Syria, both the Arab and Kurdish. There are ongoing Sunni-Alawi collisions in the mixed Latakiyya region. The fear factor seems to have dramatically lessened, and the sectarian nature of the uprising in Syria is all too obvious.

No other than the loyal spokesperson of Bashar Assad, Buthaina Shaaban admitted as much. In one of her ever-confused statements, she referred to the situation in Syria as fitna. For those familiar with early Islamic history, as well as modern Arab political discourse, the term fitna is highly-charged and indicates a sectarian conflict. For a change, Shaaban stated the truth this time, and the reverberations are strongly being felt in neighboring Lebanon.

The pro-Syrian and Iranian coalition in Lebanon is not likely to change its hatred of the west, but Sa'ad Hariri and his allies are greatly encouraged by the unfolding situation. What seemed a distant mirage just a few months ago, a collapse of the Assad dynasty seems much more realistic now with the continuing uprising. Under these circumstances, there is no need for Lebanese politicians to hasten anything. Wait-and-see is the name of the game. President Suleiman, taken until now to be Hezbollah's and Syria's ally, is remarkably passive these day -- and he is not the only one. This passivity is greatly encouraged by the successful Saudi show of force in Sunni Bahrain and the much tougher American tone against Bashar Assad.

So, with all that happening, the Lebanese Sunnis are not done, the Shiites are not victorious and the Syrian regime is fighting for its very existence.

Iran is not winning yet, perhaps not at all.

First published in Huffington Post.

AUTHOR
Dr. Josef Olmert is Adjunct Professor, American University’s School of International Service

Balatarin
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Siavash300

Ongoing battle between darkness and lightness

by Siavash300 on Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:44 AM PDT

With regard to uprising of Syrian people and bombing Lybia by western allies, the lightness will prevail over darkness and soon we will see our world free from terrorism. More the less the same as it was in 70's when shah of Iran was on power. Soon criminal gang who occupied Iran for last 32 years will lose their close ally in ME. Fall of Assad dynasty guarantee fall of their buddies in Iran. It also gaurantee defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Ruling mullahs clearly can see this historical fact .They are able to see fall of Assad is fall of them in Iran. As a result,  they bockage all media coverage about Syria in state control T.V in Iran. End of Turban dynasty is getting close as uprising of Syrian people continues. That is a great, cheerful news for all patriotic Iranian people who love Iran.

Payandeh our Aryan Land Iran.


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Mola Nasredeen

...

by Mola Nasredeen on Sat Apr 30, 2011 02:29 PM PDT

"The proof is in the pudding"

S5555, I declare that you as a jew and a self confessed supporter of Israel

who advocate 'sanctions' and 'bombardment' of Iran,

have no softpower on this website. Your over-reaction is pathetic when it comes to the subject of Israel, as usual. You only want to follow the instructions given to you by your handbook for zionist activists, ways to Demonize one's opponent, etc.

You are pissed off because you see the walls around Israel are falling while Iran has survived the sanctions and the threat of military action.

Middle East is in a state of Free Fall and  it's a free fall for Israel too.


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Simorgh5555

Mola

by Simorgh5555 on Fri Apr 29, 2011 08:23 AM PDT

Israel will still kick your Terrorist Ass and still have gas and oil supplied to it at bargain basement priices from the Arab fools.

Mark my words: Israel with outlive Hazrate Shotor and all its descendents! :)  


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Mola Nasredeen

...

by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Apr 29, 2011 08:18 AM PDT

Iran has soft power,

With or without Syria, Lebanon, etc.

That's what it counts at the end.

Something that Israel will never have in the Middle East.


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Escape

I misunderstood his sarcasm

by Escape on Thu Apr 28, 2011 09:20 PM PDT

 Re-reading it I get where he's coming from.My bad,La la-la  la-la


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ziaian

Why your hatred of Iran?

by ziaian on Thu Apr 28, 2011 07:39 PM PDT

Sir, 

You say "Iran is not winning" and seem happy about it. Why your hatred of "Iran"? Think about it.

Dr Shodja Eddin Ziaian


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asadabad

double edged sword

by asadabad on Thu Apr 28, 2011 07:28 PM PDT

Ahmadinejad and Khamenei never shut their mouth when it came to encouraging these arab uprisings, now look who is teetering on the edge of collapse?  It is very likely that Iran will lose its only Arab ally now.

RB, you are spot on.  If Hezbollah and Iran are supporting Assads regime to put down the uprising--which they probably are--then that only fuels the argument that they are religious bigots trying to oppress the Sunni majority in Syria.  Iran is becoming less popular and less popular each passing day, within the Western world and the Muslim world as well.


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Mola Nasredeen

Misinformation

by Mola Nasredeen on Thu Apr 28, 2011 04:54 PM PDT

by an Israeli

Who is Joseph Olmert?

"Josef Olmert's career spans three decades. A native of Israel, he was formerly a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv, Hebrew, and Bar-Ilan Universities in his home country. 

In addition to his teaching work, Dr. Olmert served in senior positions in the Israeli government, such as the Director of Communications under Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Policy Advisor to Defense Minister Moshe Arens. Dr. Olmert served diplomatic missions across the world."


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amirparvizforsecularmonarchy

Islamic Republic Not Winning,

by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Thu Apr 28, 2011 02:08 PM PDT

IRI is very different to Iran, considering majority of Iranians don't support IRI and hate even the mention of Khomeini for betraying their hope of being more democratic.

Sadly The USA still wants Islamic Fundamentalism for the Middle east as you can see by the results of their efforts and actions.

Lets wait and see if this policy changes, before IRI goes Nuclear in 6 -8 years or so.

 


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Roozbeh_Gilani

Thanks for the interesting, well written article.

by Roozbeh_Gilani on Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:16 AM PDT

And I agree with the previous comments to the effect that you should consider changing the title to something like: "Islamist Regime of Iran is not winning....."

It should be quite clear to anyone, that since the 2009 Fraud of the so called election in Iran,  that this regime does not represent the interests of Iranian people on matters of internal or foreign policy.

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


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alaaf

"by Josef Olmert"

by alaaf on Thu Apr 28, 2011 09:39 AM PDT

I stopped reading there. 


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Escape

Huff Post-America's Press TV

by Escape on Thu Apr 28, 2011 08:54 AM PDT

  What should I expect from that site? Even after AOL hooks up with Millions and Millions of people,are they on the Huffington Post? Uh no LOL.God I hope Trump Runs.Change we can believe in! Oh my god,anyone who still believes the Dims and sites like this are beyond 'Hope'...


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Bavafa

Its so sad…..

by Bavafa on Thu Apr 28, 2011 08:46 AM PDT

We keep seeing people write articles, offer opinion, and cheer but seems only about which of these evil regimes are wining or losing, hardly taking into account about the people themselves.

Since I consider all the dictatorial regime of the same,

I cheer when I see the regimes in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Libya and… fall and people take the power.

Mehrdad


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Escape

America has had nothing to do with it

by Escape on Thu Apr 28, 2011 08:36 AM PDT

Just like America had nothing to do with killing the MKO in Camp Ashraf.But reality isn't important is it? Is there even a shred of any evidence?

THERE ISN'T ANY NEEDED IS THERE?

It has nothing to do with the Syrian people themselves,it's all about America and Zionism.But it doesn't matter,down the drain with Hezbollah if it is from the Syrian people themselves all the better isn't it! All the more damaging! Have all the Huffington lies you want,I don't think the Syrians are reading..


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Cost-of-Progress

Joe, indeed the wrong title

by Cost-of-Progress on Thu Apr 28, 2011 05:40 AM PDT

For 32 years almost everyone has viewed Iran and the regime as one in their commentaries and articles. That is not the case and will never be the case.

Yes, there are pockets of "supporters" of this regime inside and outside Iran due to various reasons (ideology, greed, personal gains, etc). However, the anti nationalist regime of the unelected clergy DOES NOT represent Iran or Iranians. This nation has not survived 1400 years of forced assimilation and treachery only to be defeated by piss ant internal elements such as this alliance of reesh-o pashm.

Iran and her people will emerge once again as the jewel of the region that they once were - and deserve to be.

 

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


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Darius Kadivar

Had Obama interfered Firmly on Libya all this could have been

by Darius Kadivar on Thu Apr 28, 2011 04:20 AM PDT

avoided or at least it would have intimidated petty dictators to use Force to crush opposition across the middle east and North Africa ranging from Bahrain to Yemen or Jordan to Saudi Arabia regardless of which type of regime Monarchy or Republic is in Power.

 

Barack Jaan So was it "Yes We Can" Or Was It Just "Hot Air"?


Is There Really an Obama Doctrine? - Room for Debate 

 

If anything it is the "Citizens of the World",  "Liberal Peaceniks" and the Nobel Peace Prize Committee of 2009 who Killed the Arab Spring by Crippling the US foreign Policy !

 

And Guess Who is profiting of this chaos as the New Power Broker in the Middle East:

 

Turkey Relishes Role as Mr. Fixit

 

Including Two PERMANENT MEMBERS of the UN Security Council: 


Russia to double missiles output since 2013: Putin



China white paper highlights US military 'competition'


So Feel Free to Thank Your Incompetent Commander in Chief !


PRECISION DRILLING: Allied Military Operations in Libya in Progress ...


For the Fall of the "American Empire":


PAX AMERICANA: Hitchens VS Kondracke on Reality or Fantasy of American "Imperialism" (1991)


Best,

 

DK 

 

Recommended Readings: 

Arabs Will Be Free : Roger Cohen’s Advice On Libya « Be Ruthless of Stay Out » (NY Times) 



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Soosan Khanoom

Dear RB

by Soosan Khanoom on Thu Apr 28, 2011 04:05 AM PDT

I am totally agree with you on everything you said. All your points are well taken.

IRI does not even care about the Afaghani people who live in Iran.  IRI has been so ruthless to those who seeked political asylum in iran.  Not giving a chance even to the kids who born in iran to Afghan parents. They are not considered Iranian and they are being kicked out of Iran in the most inhumane ways. IRI never blamed Russia for the massacre of Bosnians Muslims and continued its relationship with it ..... IRI has allergey only and only to Israel and for that alone IRI is so hypocrite.  Bunch of retarded ego worshippers are ruling that land of ours .....

 

 

 


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Reality-Bites

SK jaan

by Reality-Bites on Thu Apr 28, 2011 03:57 AM PDT

I know you are a peaceful person (if you weren't, I wouldn't even bother with your comments) and it's fine and of course totally your choice should you wish to engage in anti-Israeli campaigns and comments. And indeed organisations likes AIPAC have been a force behind a lot of problems in ME and should have attention drawn to them.

In the interest of balance and fairness though, I wouldn't place ALL the blame on Israel in its conflict with the Arabs. Their treatment of the Palestinians is utterly shameful and should be condemned without reservation. On the other hand, the proxy war that IRI is running, through Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, against Israel is only making matters worse (though there are signs that Hamas maybe looking to settle things with PLO and possible dialogue with Israel).

But more than anything else, I find a lot of this takes attention from Iran and the plight of people there. And as much as it is sad to see Palestinians suffer, is it any sadder than what's been happening to the Darufris or the Tibetans or the Chechens or the Western Saharans or or or.....?


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Darius Kadivar

Beineh Bad o Badtar: Will Muslim brotherhood replace IRI ?

by Darius Kadivar on Thu Apr 28, 2011 03:51 AM PDT


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Darius Kadivar

Maybe but then Who is ?

by Darius Kadivar on Thu Apr 28, 2011 03:48 AM PDT


Looking Beyond Syria 

Syria crisis could change face of the Middle East (bbc)

 

BBC's Jonathan Marcus writes:



Events there are being watched with equal measures of caution and unease both in the Middle East and beyond.

Syria matters in ways that make Libya appear a largely peripheral country. Syria is a key element in an alliance that brings together Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and other more radical Palestinian groups opposed to peace with Israel.

If Syria descends into chaos, this alliance could also be weakened. But the most serious impact might be felt in next-door Lebanon - another country made up of a patchwork of communities which has not enjoyed Syria's long-term stability.

Israeli watching

One way or another, a strong Syria represents a stabilising element in Lebanon. Chaos in one could lead to chaos in the other.


“

Much of the optimism in the wake of events in Tunisia and Egypt is dissipating. New kinds of authoritarianism may be just as likely as the flowering of democracy”

Israel, too, is watching events in its northern neighbour with concern. Syria has long been a predictable enemy. Even a shaken Syrian regime could pose a different kind of problem.

 

 

 


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Soosan Khanoom

Dear RB

by Soosan Khanoom on Thu Apr 28, 2011 03:22 AM PDT

I would love to but the evidence is overwhelming.

I am actually for peace in the middle east but right wings Isreali won't give it a chance. They are no different than their IRI  counterparts.  

But to take your advise I will quit . It is even better for my blood pressure : ) 

now join me for this event 

"Move Over AIPAC: Building a New U.S. Middle East Policy." 

 


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Reality-Bites

Wrong title: it's bad news for the Islamic Republic

by Reality-Bites on Thu Apr 28, 2011 03:14 AM PDT

Not for Iran and its browbeaten population.

Interesting that the IRI, so supportive of the anti-regime demonstrations in Bahrain and Egypt, is against the very same thing in Syria. There are reports, unconfirmed it has to be said, that Lebanese Hezbollah are assisting Syrian security in putting down the revolt in that country.

Btw Soosan Khanoom, just occasionally see if you can give it a rest with your incessant anti-Israeli rhetoric. I don't particularly care for Israel's policies myself, but even I'm finding you're overdoing it.


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Soosan Khanoom

Question

by Soosan Khanoom on Thu Apr 28, 2011 02:30 AM PDT


 Syria/Iran/Hizballah are axis of threat to exactly what country? 

The answer will confirm the fact that the very same country is 100 percent behind all these middle east and north Africa's events ......

Now, to this guy who wrote the article stating it as  the usual charge: that the American-Zionist plot is in full force.  I have one answer .....this is not the usual charge ...... it is the usual FACT 

Who are you kidding here ?  

but sometimes " Adoo Shavad sababeh kheyr "   at least some countries in the middle of all of this will be going to get rid of the ruling dictators ....... let us hope for true democracy . For that I should say the game is wait and see ....... Things may  turn against the plotters.  Who knows after all people are not dumb ..........  


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