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Iran's Stunning Unpopularity
02-Aug-2011
Iran's favorable ratings are in a "freefall" across the Arab World, with Iran's behavior in Iraq, Bahrain and the Arab Gulf region being viewed negatively by most Arabs. These are a few of the key findings of an Arab American Institute poll conducted by Zogby International during the first three weeks of June, 2011.
The poll surveyed over 4,000 Arabs from Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent (in Morocco, Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and 4.5 percent (in Lebanon, Jordan, and the U.A.E.).
Back in 2006, Iran was viewed favorably in every one of these Arab countries -- and in five of the six Iran received a greater than 80 percent positive rating. Since then, the decline has been steady and sharp. For example, in 2006, Iran was rated favorably by 85 percent of Saudis and 82 percent of Moroccans. By 2008, that had dropped to 72 percent in Saudi Arabia and 65 percent in Morocco. By 2009, only 35 percent of Saudis and 57 percent of Moroccans had a favorable view of Iran. And in our 2011 poll, positive views of Iran have plummeted further to a scant 6 percent in Saudi Arabia and 14 percent in Morocco.
The poll further demonstrates widespread Arab concern with Iran's behavior in the region, with strong majorities in every country but Lebanon saying that Iran threatens the peace and stability of the Arab world. Special concern is expressed for Iran's role in Iraq and Bahrain, and with Iran's nuclear aspirations.
In most Arab countries (again, all but Lebanon) the overwhelming preference is for the Middle East to be a nuclear free zone. But when asked "if they had to choose one country, other than Israel, to be a nuclear power in the Middle East," the preferred choice, by a wide margin, is Egypt. Turkey is a distant second, followed by Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. Iran is dead last, receiving little or no support from the publics in almost every Arab country.
Because there is widespread Arab concern with Iran's quest to be the region's dominant power and because its role in Iraq and elsewhere in the Gulf is viewed negatively, pluralities in most countries express support for the GCC's new assertiveness, wanting the GCC to reject Iran's push for regional dominance. Pluralities also give positive grades to the GCC's role in Bahrain and its efforts in trying to hasten an end to the conflict in Yemen and transition to a new government.
Clearly, Iran's behavior has contributed to this stunning turn-about in its fortunes in the Arab World. But there are other factors, as well. To a great degree, in the past, Iran has been able to play off of U.S. bellicosity and blunders in the region. During the Bush years, for example, there was widespread outrage at the U.S. for its invasion of Iraq, its support for Israel's devastation of Lebanon and Gaza in 2006 and Gaza, again in 2009 and the horrors committed at Abu Ghraib. Iran was able to turn that region-wide rage to its benefit, especially when the Bush administration and Israel then directed so much hostile rhetoric against the Islamic Republic.
During the past few years, the U.S. hostility to Iran's role hasn't diminished, but the dynamic in the Arab World has changed. President Obama's policy of "engagement," while falling short of its stated goals, has somewhat reduced the decibel level of the threats. And with the "Arab Spring" underway, the attention of the region has turned inward. The U.S. has become less focused on Iran, and a bit disoriented -- having to deal simultaneously with: turmoil in Pakistan, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain; a failed Israeli-Palestinian peace process; and the need to withdraw from a still deeply troubled Iraq.
In the face of all this, Iran's behavior is seen by Arab public opinion not as a counter to America's hostile domination, but as source of instability seeking to exploit troubled areas for its own gain. Add to this the Iranian regime's brutal confrontation with the Green Revolution, and whatever positive characteristics frustrated and alienated Arabs may once have attributed to the regime in Tehran have now all but evaporated.
It was once believed that it was only Arab governments that feared Iran's push for hegemony, while Arab public opinion viewed Iran quite differently. Our polling demonstrates that while that might have been true in 2006 and 2008, by 2011 this is no longer the case. Iran is not now seen through the prism of the confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. Increasingly, it is seen and judged as it is -- a country ready to exploit every opportunity to become a regional hegemon.
A cautionary note: the one thing that could upset this evolving Arab attitude toward Iran would be an Israeli or U.S. attack on that country.
First published in HuffingtonPost.com.
AUTHOR
Dr. James J. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010) and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American-community
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well
by shushtari on Thu Aug 04, 2011 09:56 PM PDTadd this to the fine resume of the idiot mullahs- not only have the stolen, plundered, wasted trillions of iran's wealth, they have made iran into a pariah......only 35 years ago iranians didn't need visas to visit anywhere in the world, and iran was a well-respected country.
A. Gulf?!
by Arj on Thu Aug 04, 2011 09:28 AM PDTI stopped reading the article two-thirds of the way through the first sentence, where the authour uses the fake name of 'A. Gulf' to refer to the body of water internationally known for the past thousands of years as Persian Gulf. The reason is not blind patriotism, but the doubt about the authour's objectivity generated by his use of a false name that is only promoted by certain lobby groups in the recent years to undermine Iran's territorial integrity!
There's no doubt that IRI is rapidly losing its popular base in the Arab and Islamic world due to its violent suppression of the opposition and its subversive foreign policy in the region. But, utilizing that premise to subliminally promote a false design on a sensitive issue is utterly underhahded and conniving!
Who Cares about Zagby and His Biased Poll??
by afshin on Thu Aug 04, 2011 09:11 AM PDTI'm not so sure about the veracity of this poll. In fact I don't put too much stock in polls all together. Having said that, I would add that if you were to compare America's popularity in the region with that of Iran, there is aabsolutely no comparison. Which goes to show how meaningless these polls are. Iran has major and minor geopolitical interests that would transcend any regime. Our disputed Islands in the PERSIAN Gulf, will ALWAYS be Iranian. No matter who's in power. Our influence over Iraq will remain strong, no matter who's in power. As the only country with a clear Shia majority, our influence over the Shia populations will always exist. These facts will never change. They were present when the Shah was in power, and will remain once this dredded regime has joined the ash heep of history
The Arab Gulf Region?????
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Thu Aug 04, 2011 03:26 AM PDTHow skewed can you get!!!!!!
With people like this, AN does't seem so bad all of a sudden.
Yes, Persian Gulf
by Mohammad Ala on Thu Aug 04, 2011 12:21 AM PDTIf the author does not know the difference between Persian Gulf and A. Gulf, his poll is skewed. Turn the graph (upside), then Iran becomes the most popular. haha :-)
Leave Iran alone to Iranians. Iranians can work together and make Iran a better place for ALL Iranians and non-Iranians who choose to live in it.
So what your saying is that Attack by Israel or U.S. will make
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Wed Aug 03, 2011 07:40 PM PDTIran more favorable in the Arab world??????
Thanks, but no thanks, I'd prefer Iran be UnPopular in Arab world, than get attacked.
No Need to change irans unpopularity in Arab world, it could be a good thing.
COP Jaan -I think you're right
by Onlyiran on Wed Aug 03, 2011 03:53 PM PDTI have several suspects in mind as well. The most likely one appears as a part time poet, has been registered for more than a year, but claims to be "new" to the site.
Why is this stunning? I say predictable!
by MM on Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:31 PM PDT.
I rather think this attitude is more of a reflection ...
by Bavafa on Wed Aug 03, 2011 09:57 AM PDTOn the US (Obama) foreign policy towards ME and Iran then otherwise.
Bush/Cheney bullish and condescending attitude towards ME (minus Israel) had caused support for their enemies, IRI.
One more data point for Obama's successful policy in rebuilding what those two criminals destroyed in their 8-year reign which set the prestige of US 80 years back.
'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory
Mehrdad
PERSIAN GULF
by IranMarzban on Wed Aug 03, 2011 09:52 AM PDT"arab gulf region" stop reading from there, it`s persian gulf you idiot.
FREE IRAN
OI jaan, nice of you to remember the
by Cost-of-Progress on Wed Aug 03, 2011 09:46 AM PDTdead, i.e, niloufar arabi.
However, I believe she lives among us even though she's using different usernames. Take you pick among the newly inducted chest beaters of the islamic regime.
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Ahhhhhh.....where's Niloufar Parsi when you need her?
by Onlyiran on Wed Aug 03, 2011 09:32 AM PDTTo tell us that this is all BS and that she doesn't "believe in polls," and that Iran under the IR is highly popular across the world?
In fact, IRI is popular in Europe
by Rea on Wed Aug 03, 2011 07:56 AM PDTAmongst the hard left and islamists, Ahme is a hero. So is Chavez.
Never understood this alliance, never will.
This chart is a zionist plot!
by Roozbeh_Gilani on Wed Aug 03, 2011 07:34 AM PDTTurn it upside down and you'll see that Iran's (sorry, I meant khamenei's) popularity is soaring!
But seriously, it should be fairly clear that this chart is a reflection on islamist regime's reckless foreign policies, rather than any deep anti iranian feelings amongst our arab neighbours which would remain more or less the same over generations let alone a 5 year time span
"Personal business must yield to collective interest."
Countries Have Interests not Friends!
by Faramarz on Wed Aug 03, 2011 06:59 AM PDT"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." So said Lord Palmerston.
As Esfand said, the popularity of the Regime back then had more to do with the actions of Bush and Cheney. The same way that Osama was quite popular in the Muslim world in the aftermath of 9-11 but his numbers sank too and he is fish food today.
Arabs are giving back the generasities of IRR/IRI
by Maryam Hojjat on Wed Aug 03, 2011 06:44 AM PDTThe bastards akhoonds have given Lebenon, Hamas & Syria too much of wealth of IRANIANS. I wish for the IRANIANS to topple these plunderers, Liers & savages as soon as possible and we will show our Arab neighbors mutual respect only.
This is all because of the anti-Arab propaganda on this website!
by Esfand Aashena on Wed Aug 03, 2011 05:26 AM PDTJJJ you keep posting these articles and the anti-Arab anti-Islam crowd gets more ammunition to go ballistic! (on themselves ;-)
Anyway, I like Jim Zogby and have actually talked to him few times on his shows in the years past. I still watch him on CNN and other news shows. He is a progressive. His brother is the owner of the Zogby polling which does the major polling during election cycles and is well respected. It may not be a bad idea if you can arrange an interview with him (now that you're in Washington since he is here too) as it relates to Iran. Perhaps feed him some of the jibberish we read here and see what he thinks!
Back in Dec 2010 I had a discussion with Divaneh and he mentioned Ahmadi's "Popularity" in middle east. Now looking at this chart the popularity in Dec 2010 was about 30% average! So much for his popularity.
It seems to me that besides what this article says about Iran's popularity being a direct response to W's bellicosity, which I agree with, it also has to do with Ahmadi going crazy around the world calling "Holocaust a myth" and "Israel should be wiped off the map", etc. But now no one cares what he says! He can say Israel should be "obliterated by a nuclear bomb" and no one would care!
Everything is sacred