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Green Ideas Survive Movement
28-Feb-2011
In the wake of the “revolutions” in the Middle East and “revival” of protests by the Green forces, some American “experts” of Iran are calling for regime change. While the Obama Administration does not endorse this misguided view, it could be persuaded to embrace it if the situation in Iran is not better understood and leaders in Tehran fail to unite the country. This article offers a more realistic assessment of the Iranian situation and a path toward national reconciliation and democratic change in Iran as well as a more productive US policy in this time of crises.
On February 14, 2011, after a long “calm,” streets of Iran became scenes of new “illegal” demonstrations called by the leaders of the Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Sheikh Mehdi Karubi, in support of the “revolutions” in Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab states. February 14 is three days after the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. This act was indeed a slap on the face of the Islamic regime: the opposition leaders, a former prime minister and a former speaker of the parliament, did not want to legitimize the anniversary any longer. Instead, they wished to use the opportunity to show that, contrary to general perceptions, their movement was still alive.
Only future developments can tell if their gamble was worth it. For the time being, their gain is mixed at best: they have established their leadership and have revived the middle-class Green Movement. But they are now faced with solitary “house arrest” and an extremely antagonized regime. Besides, their movement is now threatened by a deadly division between the secular-radicals who wish to “overthrow” the Islamic regime, and the religious-radicals who still hope to “reform” the existing system. Until now, Mousavi and Karubi have remained with the reformers; it is highly improbable that they will ever cross the red line.
Worst yet, the Greens will have now to withstand the onslaught from the Traditional Right (mainly a coalition of clerics and merchants). They control the judiciary, the parliament, and many other key religious institutions of the Islamic regime. Following the demonstrations on February 14th, the ultra-conservative faction within the Traditional Right, with blessing from its mainstream faction, called for the arrest, imprisonment, even execution of Mousavi and Karubi. Their united front against the Greens is bad news for the Green leaders. Before the February 14th, the Traditional Right, convinced that the Greens were no longer a threat, was united against the New Right that controls the executive branch.
Indeed, the February 14th protests have created a breathing space for the New Right (mainly a coalition of young Islamic radicals and the base class), which is also supported by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei and the security-military forces under his command. Interestingly, leaders of the New Right have not joined the Traditional Right in calling for revenge against the Green leaders. Ironically, it was originally the protest against “the election fraud” by the New Right that led to the anti-establishment movement. Convinced that the Greens have split and its leaders are neutralized, the New Right is positioning itself to attract the reformist Greens for the next presidential elections. That strategy may prove not an illusion.
Thus, the Green Movement, as we knew it, that is, a radical restructuring movement dominated by the religious reformers, may have come to an end; it will sure survive as an idea for democratization of Iran. From this point onwards, the movement will increasingly center on the struggle between the Islamic regime and its secular-radical opponents determined to overthrow the entire system. They include a growing number of the radicalized young Iranians who supported the Green Movement, the secularized religious reformers, various exile groups, and separatist ethnic elements. Growing evidence suggest that the hopeful regime-changers are supported by the Western powers and their regional allies.
While the situation remains fluid, the balance of power on the streets of Iran will decisively favor the Islamic regime in the foreseeable future. With the exception of the secularized former religious forces, the many diverse Islamic groups will again unite in the face of a common enemy. They will also have the Islamicized military-security forces on their side. The lack of relation with the US, isolation, and economic sanctions will also help them rally the anti-Western Iranians against their opponents as foreign “mercenaries” and “spies.” Thanks to a large oil and non-oil income, and to the soaring oil prices, the Islamic Republic will have enough money to finance the repression for a long while.
Revolutions in the Arab World will also benefit the Islamic regime. The collapsed or collapsing Arab leaders were enemies of the Islamic Republic. In sharp contrast, the people in the Arab streets have been, generally, supportive of the “anti-imperialist” and “anti-Zionist” agitations of the Islamic leaders. Besides, these revolutions have been influenced by 30 plus years of sustained revolutionary street politics in Iran. The Iranian religious Trotskyites believe in “permanent revolution,” and they just love to engage in street politics! This is yet another advantage the Islamic regime has over its opponents. Its “street politics” is much harder to defeat than the “palace politics” of the Arab dictators.
Yet, the most critical factor that will help the Islamic regime to survive is the leadership, ideological and organizational weakness of the “regime changer.” They have no known leaders inside the country, and the leaders outside Iran have no mass following. The various groups are also antagonistic toward each other, and among them are “too many chiefs but only a few Indians.” The lack of unity and the absence of an over-arching political organization will further diminish their prospect to form a united front. The only common ground on which they now stand together is their animosity toward the Islamic regime. Their reliance on foreign powers for funds and propaganda is also problematic.
While the Islamic Republic may have relative advantage over its opponents in the immediate future, its long-term survival is by no means guaranteed given the growing public disillusionment and dissatisfaction. Even if we were to assume the death of the Green Movement, we must not forget that the Iranian people, its upper, middle and base classes, will continue to struggle for their corresponding needs, namely economic development, political reform, and social justice. Given the national discord, the Islamic Republic will hardly be able to provide for these needs. Meanwhile, its opponents, which have centered on the middle class, are also growing among the upper and the base classes.
Moreover, the strength of the Islamic regime is by no means permanent while the weakness of its opponents may be transient. For example, the union among the various rightist factions may not last in the face of systemic contradictions, and the subsidy-reduction program may begin to take its toll on the poor after the honeymoon period is over and increased household bills arrive. The US and its allies also plan to continue expanding their “crippling” sanctions until a satisfactory resolution is reached with Iran over its nuclear programs. Meanwhile, the anti-Iran forces in the West are trying their best to impose a war on Iran as is evidenced by the “documentary” called “Iranium” (Iran plus Uranium).
What happens next will depend on the Supreme Leader. He should not allow the ultra-right groups to destroy the faithful Greens, including their leaders. Instead, he should isolate the extremists on both sides, unite the realistic religious and secular Iranians, and call for national reconciliation. Forming a Constitutional review panel, securing free and fair elections, freeing the innocent political prisoners, and removing some of the social restrictions on women and the younger generations will be steps in the right direction. Some 32 years ago, the Iranian revolution set in motion a “wind of change” that has now engulfed the Arab World. The wind is now blowing back into Iran and should be welcomed.
Finally, the Supreme Leader should also consider reducing tension with the US over Iran’s nuclear program. It is unfortunate that some Western leaders are listening to pundits that have changed their mind on Iran from event to event. Fooled by the revolutions in the Arab World and street protests in Iran, many such “Iran experts” and their media backers are now urging for a more interventionist policy of “regime change” on behalf of the Green Movement. The Western “regime-changers” are as delusional as their Iranian expatriate and domestic allies. While all dictatorships are overthrown at some point, the authoritarian Islamic Republic is not a candidate for immediate collapse.
Even if the Islamic system was to fall down per the wishes of its enemies, the alternative may not be as hospitable as most predict. The likely scenario will ensue chaos, civil war and territorial disintegration, which will not serve the Iranian democrats and nationalists nor American interests in the region. The US already has too much on its shoulders to carry – from Afghanistan to Iraq, and now the changing Arab World. A political rupture in Iran will also jeopardize the prospect for democratic transformation in the region. It is time that the Iranian leaders and their enemies listen to voice of reason and mange the Iranian democratic transition and US-Iran relations peacefully and in the best interests of all involved.
AUTHOR
Dr. Hooshang Amirahmadi is a professor at Rutgers University and founder and president of the American Iranian Council. www.amirahmadi.com; hooshang@amirahmadi.com.
| Recently by Hooshang Amirahmadi | Comments | Date |
|---|---|---|
حذف مجاهدین از لیست تروریستها و سود و زیان احتمالی آن | 2 | Aug 25, 2011 |
| For the Sake of Reconciliation | 96 | Aug 16, 2011 |
| No Rush | 7 | Feb 15, 2011 |
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Good question reality-bites
by بت شکن on Wed Mar 09, 2011 03:58 AM PSThow cone [sic]all these "preserving the status quo" advocates live in the good 'ol US of A?
The answer: because only by "preserving the staus quo" can they finance their presence in the US of A!
Not quite getting this
by Reality-Bites on Mon Mar 07, 2011 01:59 PM PSTI don't wish to be disparaging towards Dr Mirahmadi's article, but it comes across as a confused, convoluted and a rather contradictory piece, which while appearing to criticise the actions of the Iranian regime in some instances, essentially argues for the status quo and, therefore, the IRI to continue.
What takes the biscuit (and the cake and the chocolate along with it) is this extract in particular:
"....What happens next will depend on the Supreme Leader. He should not allow the ultra-right groups to destroy the faithful Greens, including their leaders. Instead, he should isolate the extremists on both sides, unite the realistic religious and secular Iranians, and call for national reconciliation. Forming a Constitutional review panel, securing free and fair elections, freeing the innocent political prisoners, and removing some of the social restrictions on women and the younger generations will be steps in the right direction...."
My good Doctor, the Supreme Leader himself is the head extremist. It is directly he (with his pet, Ahmadinjed, the IGRC and their street thugs in tow of course), who have blocked and suppressed free and fair elections and any possible chance of national reconciliation, as you are suggesting. In short, how can the Supreme Leader be the solution, when he IS the problem?
Also to state that should the regime fall then (and I quote) ....The likely scenario will ensue chaos, civil war and territorial disintegration,.... is presumptuous speculation, which appears designed to argue for the IRI to be preserved at any cost and scaring away any possible alternative because, according to your baseless scare mongering any fundamental change in the governance of the country "will" (not might or possibly even, but "WILL) result in the country facing oblivion.
On a separate point, a question: how cone all these "preserving the status quo" advocates live in the good 'ol US of A?
pass ....
by Kashk on Wed Mar 02, 2011 08:03 PM PSTI will not read a paragraph written by an opportunist who gets funding from exxon,conoco,halliburton,boeing. a person who shakes the bloody hands of ahmadinejad ... shame on you shame on you ...
Disclaimer: read it only once (so I'm still confused)
by Ari Siletz on Tue Mar 01, 2011 08:37 PM PSTFinally the article degrades into "why can't we all just get along?" No need to repeat the well expressed replies of previous commenters to this question--especially since on a hypothetical second read I may discover that the question was intended as humor.
Yawn.....
by Roozbeh_Gilani on Tue Mar 01, 2011 07:57 PM PSTGave up after the first couple of paragraphs. Next time just cut the you know what and say in one paragraph that you love the islamist regime, khamenei, ahmadinezhad, and are extremely concerned that with all this "marg bar dictator" cries from stuborn demonstrates, they'll both end up being strung up by their necks off the lamp posts outside the syrian embassy in Tehran.....
Finally some realistic analysis here!
by Jaleho on Tue Mar 01, 2011 07:37 PM PSTJaleh
What is these garbages?
by Siavash300 on Tue Mar 01, 2011 06:45 PM PSTSupreme leader? A bunch of the stinky ragheads occupied and destroyed our beautiful country for last 32 years, now supreme leader of who? what a waste of time to read these garbages.
Aynak: You're so spot on.
by vildemose on Tue Mar 01, 2011 06:10 PM PSTAynak: You're so spot on. This article is written for Khamenie. He is writing as Khamenie's advisor.
Thank you VPK
by بت شکن on Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:56 AM PSTHow can we forget :) that was good answer.
Yes COP
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:26 AM PSTYou got it. His pay check is the main thing. He pretends to be worried about USA. I would love to see USA deport these losers back to IRR and let them go back to the Mollahs. Why does Rutgers hire these ***holes is beyond me.
The same scare tactics . "If not IRI then all hell will break loose". You know what? I am willing to risk chaos and all that. If the other option is to live with rape and murder and Islam. To heck with the whole *** house of cards. No more of the IRR.
Read the last paragraph only
by Cost-of-Progress on Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:21 AM PST"Even if the Islamic system was to fall down per the wishes of its enemies, the alternative may not be as hospitable as most predict. The likely scenario will ensue chaos, civil war and territorial disintegration, which will not serve the Iranian democrats and nationalists nor American interests in the region. The US already has too much on its shoulders to carry – from Afghanistan to Iraq, and now the changing Arab World. A political rupture in Iran will also jeopardize the prospect for democratic transformation in the region. It is time that the Iranian leaders and their enemies listen to voice of reason and mange the Iranian democratic transition and US-Iran relations peacefully and in the best interests of all involved."
Another words, "leave Iran be or there'll be more chaos in the region. Besides my paycheck will be at risk."
Clever though, this bunch, ay?
____________
IRAN FIRST
____________
Botshekan
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:12 AM PSTwhy should anyone read this article (I didn't).
To remind ourselves what a bunch of treasonous losers Iranian "an-tellectuals" are.
Give me ONE reason, not two!
by بت شکن on Tue Mar 01, 2011 07:10 AM PSTwhy should anyone read this article (I didn't).
Who is this analysis for, Amir Ahamdi?
by aynak on Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:05 PM PSTYou write: "This article offers a more realistic assessment of the Iranian situation
and a path toward national reconciliation and democratic change in Iran
as well as a more productive US policy in this time of crises."
Since the election/coup, which accroding to the regime at least had 14,000,000+ (including Karoubis votes) for the opposition camp, what signs of concession/compromise have you seen from Khamaneh-ee? Do you forget that before results were announced, Khamaneh-ee already congratulated Ahmadi Nejad, and one week after, he threatened the eyes of the objectors to the coup to be taken out?
As late as last year, Mousavi put out the 17th statement, when he backed out from his candidacy but put forth simple requests like freedom of political prisoners.
This regime, not only has not given an inch, it wants more. Not only have they not relaxed much in terms of their barbaric laws, as of late they have been raiding people's homes for things that are not even political in nature! That is along with daily news of murder of political opponents for fake and made up charges.
Students are expelled in the hundreds, and as if to show its true savage nature, they have condemend to death a student whose only "crime" was to hold a picture of Ahmadi-Nejad in his hand calling him a dictator.
Mr.AhmirAhmadi, forget U.S, focus on Iranian regime. If you have any leverage I beg you to use it. It is nothing external that is driving Iran to complete destruction and disintegration, but dumb foosl, who have no idea what they are doing to the people of their own country. Incompetent, ignorant individuals, at highest level of decision making.
Time is running short. (It appears Khamaneh-ee Jalad already responded to your plea by placing both Karoubi and Mousavi in prison).
May we all have good dreams.
AIC and NIAC
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Feb 28, 2011 06:10 PM PSTThanks Mehrdad for pointing the difference. They are not the same. I am still not sure of their relation. But they are not the same.
Would someone more familiar please post what is the relation. I will do some homework myself.
"Radicalized"
by Bavafa on Mon Feb 28, 2011 05:33 PM PSTAghaye Amirahmadi:
If I had a penny for every time and every group you identified as "Radicalized" I would be a rich man.
"Indeed, the February 14th protests have created a breathing space for the New Right"
Are we blaming the victim here for the crimes of "new right" here? Should people just take what ever it is being dished out to them just so the "new right" does not feel it has to come and beat the crap out of people?
"Growing evidence suggest that the hopeful regime-changers are supported by the Western powers and their regional allies"
And can we see some of this evidence? Or is it more like the evidence often referred to by Israel regarding Iran's nuclear weapon?
"With the exception of the secularized former religious forces, the many diverse Islamic groups will again unite in the face of a common enemy"
And who is that enemy please?
"In sharp contrast, the people in the Arab streets have been, generally, supportive of the "anti-imperialist" and "anti-Zionist" agitations of the Islamic leaders"
To the contrary, in sharp contrast, the people in the Arab streets have been, generally hating of IRI as much as the imperialist and Zionist
"Instead, he should isolate the extremists on both sides, unite the realistic religious and secular Iranians, and call for national reconciliation. Forming a Constitutional review panel, securing free and fair elections, freeing the innocent political prisoners"
How long has he been the supreme leaser now? Doesn't that sound more like the Mubarak's attempt in reconciliation and openness?
"Even if the Islamic system was to fall down per the wishes of its enemies, the alternative may not be as hospitable as most predict"
And what do you mean "Even", there is no even, only when
And Shushtari jaan
American Iranian Council is a different organization then NIAC. Nice try though.
Mehrdad
So I
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Feb 28, 2011 04:00 PM PSTfinally managed to read this rather long winded and confused article. I dislike to read something where the writer is deliberately obfuscating the position.
So I will try to summarize it.The writer appears to think:
He then repeats the usual appologies talking points: Khamenei is somehow a sane person to deal with; IRR has massive street support {vs paid goons}; it is in the interest of USA to keep IRR.
This proves to me he is an IRR mouthpiece.
Folks: I am sick to my heart of "an-tellectuals"; left wing Professors and other relics. Thankfully their henna has lost its color. As the readers show people are not at all impressed. The letters "Dr." or "Ph.D." no longer hold any weight.
Regarding NIAC: I said a few months ago I will give them a one year try. This is definitely a big negative. People like him Amirahmadi and Aslan do not help NIAC. If this is the pattern I fear NIAC will fail my test when the year is up.
Shushtari: He also had
by vildemose on Mon Feb 28, 2011 03:10 PM PSTShushtari: He also had nominated himself as a Presidential
candidate of IRI,but didn't get approved by the Supreme ignorance.
//www.amirahmadi.org/pages/php/bio.php
when I read
by shushtari on Mon Feb 28, 2011 02:28 PM PSTthat this guy is part of the NIAC, then it all made sense!
these guys, along with parsi, our the waning mouthpieces for the mullahs in the US....
the akhoonds only respect and fear force....that's it......they have to be crushed to make sure they don't come back, ever again.
no mercy should be the policy
justice, and law should be reserved for human beings not a bunch of gutlless animals
Joe
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Feb 28, 2011 01:56 PM PSTthats why many still believe that top
iranian decision makers are capable of change, for their own sake. nice
read and this article is very close to what i hear from iranians
Who thinks IRR is capbale of change? Unless you mean getting more repressive. I do not think you are talking to "Iranians". I am Iranian and not one person I outside in real life thinks these goons will reform. This is specially true of Iranians in Iran. They know they only good Mollah is a *** Mollah.
PS: Are you Sargord by any chances!
NASSER SHIRAKBARI has a point
by Joe L. on Mon Feb 28, 2011 01:31 PM PSTi would like a discussion pro and against.
Nonsense
by NASSER SHIRAKBARI on Mon Feb 28, 2011 01:27 PM PSTA long winded nonsense. Khamenei is not educated in what is the norm of the current century. During the June 2009 demonstrations, he is the one put his foot down and told the security forces, Give the people one notice, then crack down with no mercy. Present intolerant oppression is his policy to maintain power. Any reform is viewed as weakness and beginning of the end. They have many excuses and no shame. Your ideas are wishful thinking.
it's a matter of survival
by Joe L. on Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:23 AM PSTthats why many still believe that top iranian decision makers are capable of change, for their own sake. nice read and this article is very close to what i hear from iranians
No reconciliation with IRI
by seannewyork on Mon Feb 28, 2011 08:44 AM PSTIt is way to late for reconciliation with IRI, maybe in 1980 that would have worked.
Also, he sounds like one of Mubarak spokesman saying after Mubarak leaves the next group will be horrible and the place will implode.
I think a secular democratic Iran is not scary.
Seems like a mouthpieces for Khamenei.
by Cost-of-Progress on Mon Feb 28, 2011 08:41 AM PSTSupreme Leader
by Jahanshah Javid on Mon Feb 28, 2011 07:52 AM PSTI agree with much of your analysis. Especially about the longevity of Green aspirations.
But what I don't agree with is your apparent belief that Khamenei can be a fair, just and sensible ruler.
You say Khamenei "should not allow the ultra-right groups to destroy the faithful Greens, including their leaders. Instead, he should isolate the extremists on both sides, unite the realistic religious and secular Iranians, and call for national reconciliation. Forming a Constitutional review panel, securing free and fair elections, freeing the innocent political prisoners, and removing some of the social restrictions on women and the younger generations will be steps in the right direction."
On what basis do you think Khamenei has the capacity to appreciate and carry out such steps? He has never been anything but a ruthless dictator. Why would he change? When has he ever retreated or compromised? He's becoming progressively worse.
Khamenei is an absolute ruler. Nothing of significance happens without his direct involvement. He's directly and primarily responsible. It seems like you have too much faith in the Supreme Leader's ability to reform his ways. Just his title alone should be warning enough that it's a hopeless case.