Shoring Up Assad

Iran's proxy war in Syria

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Shoring Up Assad
by Marc Ginsberg
31-Jul-2011
 

If the current trajectory of Syrian street protests continue at their current, bloody pace, last Friday (July 22) may be remembered as the epic day Syria's Assad dictatorial dynasty began a fateful, accelerating process of unraveling.

Finally, after over four months of country-wide protests, every major Syrian city witnessed massive simultaneous demonstrations against the regime. From Aleppo in the north to the capital Damascus, hundreds of thousands of Syrian citizens defied the live fire aimed at them by Assad's security forces chanting the newly-minted forbidden revolutionary anthem "Come On Bashar, Leave!"

Hey Bashar, hey liar. Damn you and your speech,
Freedom is right at the door. So common on, Bashar, Leave!

It is an appalling travesty that because of the media blackout the world cannot witness the wanton killing of innocent Syrians at the hands of their own government. Last Friday, over 32 people were shot dead, bringing the total number of Syrians murdered by the regime to over 1,600. No one has a credible estimate how many more have been abducted or injured.

Numbers are abstract. Casualties in raw numbers do no justice to the mayhem Assad has condoned against his own people.

Visualize this eyewitness report. A solemn funeral procession for a young, married Syrian protestor en route to burial at a cemetery on the outskirts of Homs. Suddenly, Syrian security forces start shooting point-blank into the procession. Within seconds the grieving mother and the son of the protester were struck and instantly killed. Six more grieving relatives were killed, as well.

If Assad's power base is unraveling how long will it take for the coup de grace?

Unfortunately, if Iran has its way, Assad won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

Iran has reportedly provided an emergency financial lifeline to the regime in the amount of $5.6 billion as billions pour out of Syrian banks by nervous depositors seeking safe haven in Beirut or Istanbul-based banks.

As I reported earlier, intelligence analysts have irrefutable proof that Iran has dispatched advisers from its domestic secret police forces (The Law Enforcement Service or LED) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) to take over direct supervision of anti protest suppression.

The savage repression being committed by the joint Syrian-Iran strike forces is being directed by leadership elements of Iran's so-called volunteer marauders squad known as the Basij (those civilian clad thugs who roamed the streets of Tehran beating Iranians senseless and kidnapping protesters).

Confirming the Iranian intervention, the European Union imposed sanctions against the leadership of the IRGC and certain Syrian security forces, charging IRGC commander Mohammad Al Jafari and Al-Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani and IRGC deputy commander for intelligence Hussein Taeb for directly providing command and control as well as logistic and equipment support to aid the Syrian regime suppress demonstrations. Not too long thereafter, the U.S. Treasury Department slapped further sanctions on key Iranian commanders aiding and abetting the crackdown against Syrian civilians.

In addition to its shock troops, Iran has also provided Syrian commanders with sophisticated road-side bombs to take out any defecting Syrian military vehicles (which Iran has also provided to Shiite militias in Iraq to be used against Americans), as well as Iranian-built sniper rifles.

According to other Middle East media reports, Iran also constructed in Syria an advanced Nokia Siemens Network (NS) devices for disrupting internal internet communications which permit Syrian forces to identify activists using social media -- the same type of telecommunications interception equipment Nokia was forced to admit in 2008 that hit had sold to Iran.

Given the magnitude of Iran's direct intervention in Syria and Assad's deference to his Iranian riot-control masters, it would not be too much of a stretch to assert that Iran, rather than Syria, is largely overseeing the repression given the extensive role Iranian forces now have in putting down the revolt.

For good measure (and despite the usually untruthful protestations to the contrary), the free-for-all being directed against Syria's citizens also includes elements of Lebanon's terror group and Iran proxy, Hizbullah.

This morning, Syrian/Iranian forces commenced a new, more massive crackdown on the eve of Ramadan, which the Assad regime fears will transform every day into a Friday of demonstrations.

If the regime is not being pounded militarily into submission, like in Libya, what will trump its Iranian-funded rescue and cause it to erode and collapse from within?

Surely, it will take more sure-footed, hard-nosed leadership from the Obama Administration -- whose approach toward Syria until now has been -- to put it as charitably as possible -- disappointingly callow and erratic. Even the New York Times accused Secretary of State Clinton in a July 18th editorial of diluting her own message to Assad after finally declaring him illegitimate in an unscripted aside.

While foreign military intervention against Assad is a non-starter, the U.S., along with the European Union have not fully unsheathed their economic swords.

Unfortunately, the longer the protests continue the more likely Assad will provoke grim sectarian strife to save itself, a fear the White House has expressed on numerous occasions. That is why urgent, additional economic sanctions are needed now to accelerate the regime's demise and forestall the very sectarian strife the Administration fears.

So what more can the U.S. and its allies do short of military intervention?

Andrew Tabler, one of our country's leading experts on Syria, wrote an instructive essay in Foreign Policy on July 19 declaring that the U.S. and Europe should begin boycotting Syrian oil exports -- setting forth 6 specific rational steps which could be taken to hasten the regime's downfall.

According to Tabler, Syria produces 390,000 BPD, of which it exports 148,000 BPD -- accounting to 1/3 of state revenues. If the European Union were to slap sanctions on the sale of Syrian crude to Europe (imported by Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands), no more foreign currency from oil imports.

How many more body counts must the US and EU receive before turning off the oil spigot?

The U.S. could also pressure the United Kingdom to halt the operations of Gulfsands Petroleum -- a former Houston-based refiner/extractor, which is tied at the hip to Assad's cousin, Rami Makhlouf. And the U.S. could also pressure the EU to cease all banking ties with the Commercial Bank of Syria, which is used to convert oil sales into hard currency. Finally, the U.S. and the EU should selectively target imported refined gasoline and diesel products -- a sanction already leveled against Iran.

Admittedly, there are no silver bullets by which to topple the Assad regime. As the unorganized protest movement morphs into a more coherent, representative and legitimate National Salvation Council the U.S. has a unique opportunity to put behind it its past regrettable policy missteps and play a far more constructive (and not a tell-tale obstructionist role), in expediting this transition.

Iran has much to lose should Assad & Co. topple. The U.S. has much to gain by their loss. Syria's fate and future (unlike Libya's future) have far-reaching consequences to the region. Assad is not indispensable. He is merely the devil we know and that does not make him the better choice in that equation. The people of Syria deserve better and it is high time before the very violence we most fear tears Syria apart and help accelerate an end to their suffering and plight.

If the Syrian people have risked their lives to muster the courage to proclaim it, Madame Secretary, there is FAR more this Administration can do to leverage additional painful economic sanctions against Syria to hasten its demise. For good measure join them in declaring "So Come On, Bashar, Leave!"



First published in HuffingtonPost.com.

AUTHOR
Marc Ginsberg is former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco.

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Mohammad Alireza

Hook Line and Sinker

by Mohammad Alireza on

It seems most posters here have accepted the "facts" presented by Mr. Ginsberg.

It is extremely unlikely that Iran would send over billions of dollars........why?

Because the regime here is very broke. Thousands of projects sit idle. Thousands of government run companies have not paid wages for months.

Then again if Assad falls the regime here will be greatly weakened. And not just geopolitically but it will provide great encouragement for Iranians to also rise up and once again attempt to bring about democracy and the rule of law.


Zamin

Who needs the CIA, Mossad,

by Zamin on

Who needs the CIA, Mossad, or MI6, when you can just ask the all knowing gods on Iranian.com?

 

"Iran has reportedly provided an emergency financial lifeline to the
regime in the amount of $5.6 billion as billions pour out of Syrian
banks by nervous depositors seeking safe haven in Beirut or
Istanbul-based banks."

 Who reported this? Where is the credible source? Six billion is a lot of money people, you don't just throw it in a plane and ship it over.. 


vildemose

Divaneh jan:

by vildemose on

 There are a number of IRI cronies who constantly shower us with comments and articles about the Palestinian human rights. I have not seen them defending the Syrians human rights. It was just to see if they had any shame, but I know the answer to that question already.

 Amen...

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx


Bavafa

Amir Agha: Being allied with US is a great thing ...

by Bavafa on

And to be desired, such as England, Japan, Germany are, but being subservient to US not as so great. I believe by accepting US/West moral & political support but doing the leg work ourselves we will have far greater chance to become an ally. Having US do the fighting for us and kick IRI out of Iran (their money & their blood) will be the surest way to have them also choose the next regime for Iranians and that regime will undoubtedly be to serve the interest of US first (i.e. a subservient regime as there are many of them in the ME)

Divaneh jaan: great post and comment as always.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


AMIR1973

VPK jaan,

by AMIR1973 on

I agree. Take care.

Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Divaneh

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I agree with your posts as I mostly do. Thank you for clarifying your position. In general I find you to be one of the most intelligent posters on IC. 

As for "Pan Iranist": I mean I want Iran to have influence in the region. I want to recover lost territories. Not by IRI but by a real Iranian government. I want to see Iranian people reunited. From Ctesiphon to Tajikistan. We are like a body that was chopped into parts. We need sow the parts back together. Form a union or at least a federation. That will give us more power to bargain; a common market and benefits of sharing our natural and human resources. 

Hope that clarifies what I mean by Pan Iranist. 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Amir

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I agree that being aligned with USA is generally beneficial to a nation. But I mistrust the NeoCon groups. They are relatively new to US policies. They are enemies of Iran. Just read the posts by Simorgh where he was arguing for separation of Khuzistan. Then he stopped probably realizing he was going too far.

Having said that I would gladly ally with USA if they were to give us a good deal. My point is that we should bargain for the best terms.


divaneh

Dear VPK

by divaneh on

I think you have interpreted my comment wrongly. It was not directed at those who care for Iran or the wellbeing of the ME people. I made two clear points.

1. The real enemy of the ME people are their kings (Whatever titles they want to assume) who seem to be far more brutal than Israelis when their interests are threatened. I condemn both.

2. There are a number of IRI cronies who constantly shower us with comments and articles about the Palestinian human rights. I have not seen them defending the Syrians human rights. It was just to see if they had any shame, but I know the answer to that question already.

I don't know what can a Pan Iranist mean but I am against any negative influence by any Iranian government in its neighbours. That will be a failed policy in the long term. The way forward is to have cooperation and positive cultural and economical exchanges and ties (without assuming that we are better or superior in any way). For that to happen we first need to have a secular and positive government in Iran.

 


AMIR1973

Dear VPK

by AMIR1973 on

Yes, everyone individual and every state in this world looks after its own interests, and the U.S. is no different. I agree with you on that. But let us look at the countries in the past few decades that were most closely in the "U.S. camp" and see how those states turned out compared to other states: compare West Germany to East Germany. Compare South Korea to North Korea. Compare Taiwan to Communist China (where tens of millions died under Mao Tse-Tung). Even in the Mideast-North Africa region, which is full of rotten dictatorships, those states in the "U.S. camp" (e.g. Iran under the Shah, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, etc) are far less bloody and brutal than those states not in the "U.S. camp" (e.g. the IRI, Baathist Syria and Iraq, Qaddafi's Libya, Sudan). People say, "What about Saudi Arabia?" As bad as the Saudis are, the viable alternatives within Saudi society, a very "backward" and reactionary society even by Mideast standards, are Jihadist religious fanatics that are even worse than the lousy current Saudi rulers. Name me one country in the world today not in the "U.S. camp" which is a democracy with civil rights and a decent standard of living for most of its people. One should always be sceptical of other states' motives, but one should also acknowledge these realities too. Regards.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Dear Divaneh

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Many people criticize Asad. I do not see too many people here worrying about Palestinians. I do not. Therefore I am not sure what you getting at. Who is supporting Asad expect for IRI? 

I do support Iranian influence in the region because I am a pan Iranist. However I oppose IRI. They are not the same thing. IRI is an enemy of Iranian people and I agree. However I do not see any problem with Iran; not IRI calling the shots.


divaneh

Does Asad kill more than Israel?

by divaneh on

Can anyone tell me how the number of Syrians killed by Asad compares to the number of Palestinians killed by Israel? I can't see many of those who criticize Israel for killing Palestinians to show much objections to Bashar slaying the Syrians.


Bavafa

And I am saying سلامِ گرگ بی‌‌ طمعه نیست

Bavafa


 

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Amir Jan

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I normally agree with you but let us be fair. Nations have their own interests. The USA; China or Russia are not philanthropists. They are not good or bad guys. They are just after what their own interests are. That is all.

Both Russia and China suffered a great deal at the hand of the West. Britain practically had the whole Chinese population addicted to opium. Russia was promised NATO would not expand. Then when they let go of East Europe NATO went right ahead and expanded. In other words the West lied to Russian. Then conspired to "democratically" elect a drunk idiot for their president. Do you wonder why they totally mistrust USA? I would if I were them. China is very consistent in its policies. It does not like outside interference in any national situation. The reasons are because they have a lot to fear. They have separatists; and minorities whom they repress. The last thing they want it to set a precedent for UN justice. 

Russia has similar issues with their own population. They voluntarily gave up an empire. What did they get in return: humiliation and ridicule. No wonder they do not support the West. 

Iranians should recognize there are no good guys here. We are our only hope and better listen to Mehrdad. It is only working together that we will prevail. I am not saying do not take help from outside. Just know what you are getting and be ready to outsmart them. 

No other nation is out to help us. Neither USA and specially not the EU with their MEK love affair. Take help but know the price and negotiate the best terms possible.


vildemose

 Syrian regime TV is an

by vildemose on

 Syrian regime TV is an insult to anyone's intelligence.  You watch the news and think that Syrian regime is fighting Israel, and not its own civilian population.  They list casualties among the "regime/order preserving forces", but not the civilians unless they talk about "the criminal gang" (arazel obash)  that roams the country and shoots at people and Syrian regime forces alike.  

 They claim that there is a conspiracy by roving armed terrorist groups all over Syria.  

 

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx


AMIR1973

Bavafa,

by AMIR1973 on

What I'm saying is that opposing outside assistance or a "hands off" approach to the IRI on the basis of "anti-imperialism" (which, in reality, often means anti-Americanism) is a gift to the regime and leaves its opponents with little to no chance of success in getting rid of it.


Bavafa

Amir Agha: Are we agreeing or disagreeing?

by Bavafa on

It is really hard to draw a conclusion from your comment to see if we are in agreement or disagreement, not that it matters much.

The resistance has vastly been by Syrians and the help, albeit tangible it should be welcomed if it is for the Syrian people. Sadly, Iranians got far less of moral or otherwise support during the 2009.

One wonders why? Could it be that it was a grass root effort? I don't know but I wonder...

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Anahid Hojjati

what a great thread

by Anahid Hojjati on

This is such an important issue. How corrupt is IRI that it is leading the killing of protesters in Syria. Not that I am pro any type of military action against Iran; I am not opposed blindly either.  However, to those who naively oppose any military action against Iran, I would say, can you blame other countries if they attack Iran when Iran is interferring to this degree in affairs of another country?


AMIR1973

Response To Bavafa

by AMIR1973 on

They surely have not got any tangible help from outside and that may well serve them better in the long run.

This is a a matter of dispute. Of course, most of the work is being done by Syrians inside Syria, but there have been a number of opposition meetings outside Syria (especially in Turkey) laying out political platforms; there have been sanctions imposed by the EU and US (with filthy Russia and China so far opposing UN sanctions, though that might change); Turkey has allowed many thousands of Syrian refugees to cross into the country and has expressed its support for the protests; the U.S. and French embassies have declared their support for the protests, and the U.S. ambassador has traveled to the city of Hama to show his support. Moreover, there have been claims that weapons and other assistance has also come from Lebanese Sunnis, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia (true or not, this has been alleged). There is no major modern revolution or regime change that has been accomplished without some outside assistance. Of course, the Syrians revolted in 1982, and Assad's father crushed that uprising by using tanks and artillery to inflict tens of thousands of casualties -- but the good news is that there was no outside assistance from "imperialists" (translation: The Great Satan), and so that rebellion remained "pure" and free of "imperialism".


Cost-of-Progress

If the current wave is truly

by Cost-of-Progress on

that of people, then more power to them.

Actaully, if true, that would say something about Iran and why our ancestral land is in the shape she is today. 

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Two may play

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

at this game. The "West" or whoever is behind Islamic Brotherhood may have plans. But they do not have to be our plans. Iranian or Syrian people may have their own plans. Fight the oppression.

But do not give into whatever the "outside" wants. Iranians overthrew the Shah; fine. But they did not have to listen to BBC pushing Khomeini. They may have opted for Bakhtiyar. We must stop being stupid and leave our fate in hands of other people.


Bavafa

VPK jaan, I agree completely. As they say...

by Bavafa on

سلامِ گرگ بی‌‌ طمعه نیست

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Bavafa

COP jan: I am trying to understand your point...

by Bavafa on

As you may well be speaking above the 12th grade for my level, but on a quick review… I would say Syrians so far have been banking on the bravery of their own people.

They surely have not got any tangible help from outside and that may well serve them better in the long run. Its been many months now that they have raised against their regime and arguably the Syrian regime has been far more brutal then IRI in dealing with the dissident, yet not only they did not go back to hiding, the opposition has just grown city by the city and ever more stronger.

As for the Islamist Brotherhood in Egypt, that is why I wished them victory with a caution that they should safeguard their new freedom. It is however noteworthy that it is not just the Islamist that may steal the victory.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Cost-of-Progress

Yes, good point, but

by Cost-of-Progress on

who is supporting and cheerleading the Syrians that the Iranians did not have in 2009? Iranians put their fate in the hands of a couple of akhoond and akhoond-zade (mousavi and karoubi) and at the end the two figured that by supporting the people, they would end their own religious reign as well. So they crawfished.

Yes, the Iranians can learn from the Syrians, they should learn who's behind this wave in the Arab world?

For Egypt, it appears that the moslem brotherhood "has gained" momentum....Surprize...surprize..

____________

IRAN FIRST

____________


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Good points Mehrdad

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

My point is also that we should not assume those opposing IRI are "good". By that I mean the NeoCon and West. There are a lot of bad players in this game. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend.

The only good types are the people. Both Iranian and Syrian people. The problems is that they are easily misled and many forced are working on it. People must beware of this or we have IRI all over again.

 


Bavafa

One thing to keep in mind....

by Bavafa on

As IRI is teaching Syrian security forces, Iranians can learn from Syrian people.

Their steadfastness and bravery in opposing this dictatorial regime is truly admirable. The hope is for a quick victory with fewer casualty and the bigger hope is that they can safeguard their victory so it will not be hijacked by Islamist or the imperialist.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad


Reality-Bites

Pendar

by Reality-Bites on

To answer your question, maybe it's because are an anti-Israeli IR supporter who dislikes any talk of the horrendous acts of the Islamic Republic.

And the writer is not criticising your "homeland", but the tyrannical regime that rules over it. While on the subject of your "homeland", if you care about it so much how come you don't live there and instead chosen to live in the nasty 'ol US of A, which you despise so much?


Roozbeh_Gilani

It must feel sad and lonely for these birds of a feather

by Roozbeh_Gilani on

Dont blame these two criminals for backing each other. They know darn well that even Moscow and Bejing would not be a safe heaven for them when angry people start knocking on the gates of their palaces  

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

The whole thing

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

is a joke. IRI is executing people with kangaroo trials. USA is executing people by war. Israel is executing people by starvation and disease. Taliban just do it the good old way. Saudi murder Bahraini. West does it by putting on sanctions. There are no good guys here. The idealists should pull their heads out of their ***. All the forces there are selfish and out for themselves. I say the best we had was Reza Shah! At least he was a "mihan parast". Which is better than all the above.


AMIR1973

Both Hilarious and Hass-terical

by AMIR1973 on

IRI is the Number One executioner in the region (Number Two worldwide after China, which has almost 20 times IRI's population). The IRI has killed exponentially more of its own citizens since coming to power than the repressive Saudi regime has killed during the same period. Finally, there is no comparison between Bahrain, where about 32 people were killed over several months of protests and Syria, where several times that number have been killed on many days. Talk about crocodile tears! Is there anything more hilarious, hypocritical, and hass-terical than a Groupie of an anti-Western terrorist regime residing in the West, using Western political freedoms and Western technologies to vomit up cyber-drivel on behalf of said anti-Western regime? Cheers  :-)


hass

LOL!!!! You're a funny guy

by hass on

All this crying about Iran's support for "savage repression" is SOOOOO funny in light of the US's support for the most repressive dictatorships in the region, including Saudi Arabia, and Saudi repression of Bahrain's democracy movement.