SYRIA
به زبان فارسی
PICTORY
LATEST MUSIC
SEARCH
Assad's Iranian Shadow
26-Nov-2011
Unlike any other Arab country, Syria holds the key to several conflicts in the Middle East. The future of the Iran-led "resistance block" (along with Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas), stabilization in Iraq, the conflict with Israel, as well as Turkey's "new eastern policy" all depend on what will happen in Syria in the wake of the ongoing uprising. Now, after eight months of protests, with thousands of people killed, tens of thousands arrested and no end in sight, what can be done to stop the carnage and inhibit, if not end, Iran's direct intervention to keep Assad in power and extricate Tehran from Damascus through a regime change? A general look at the scene suggests six major elements that characterize the current situation in Syria which make it unlikely for Syria's President Assad to stay in power.
First, as the crackdown continues, international sanctions, though still far from crippling the regime, have started to drain the regime's economic as well as diplomatic resources. Oil revenues will dry up as export contracts largely expired in mid-November after the European Union implemented a ban on Syrian oil. Turkey, which has held the United States from taking action against Damascus in the hope that Assad will make reforms, has also finally abandoned Assad. Not only has Turkey hosted the establishment of the Syrian National Council (SNC) by opposition groups in Istanbul, but Turkey is also currently conducting military exercises on the Syrian border, with plans in place for a possible occupation of northern Syria to provide a safe haven for refugees and military defectors to escape the killing.
Second, the regime has lost legitimacy and is unlikely to restore it. Unlike democracies, authoritarian regimes can still maintain legitimacy through means other than being elected as representatives of their people, particularly by providing basic public goods and services. Assad's loss of legitimacy was not, therefore, for "failing to lead a democratic transition," as President Obama stated in mid-July, but the result of the regime's gradual failure to deliver public goods and later the indiscriminate killing of its citizens, especially when the sanctions continue to undermine the patron-client relationship that the regime has maintained for decades with the business elite.
Third, the majority of the Syrian people are being increasingly alienated. It is not unusual for authoritarian regimes to face dissent but the ability to crush protests is always situation-specific. In 1982, Bashar's father, Hafez Assad, quelled a revolt in the city of Hama by killing an estimated 20,000 of its residents and his regime survived for two more decades. In 2011, the recurrent, though qualified, victories of Arab revolutions as well as the media scrutiny (social media in particular) has emboldened the protesters and restricted the regime. Even if the protest is crushed now, the hatred that the government's violence has fed makes it only a matter of time before protests are resurrected with even greater force.
Fourth, the prospect of a civil war looms large on the horizon. Syria's Alawites ruling minority and the Sunnis are becoming mortal enemies. Random killings against the civilians are committed not only by the government forces but also by members of the Sunni and the Alawite communities against one another. With the rising toll of civilian deaths, protesters are becoming more militant and people on both sides are buying weapons which are being smuggled in from Lebanon for self-defense and offensive operations. Uncontained, such a situation runs the high possibility of turning into another post-Saddam Iraq, where vendetta prevails between the Sunni and Shiites.
Fifth, there is military defection. Though figures have not been quantified accurately, there is no question that a growing number of the Syrian military's rank-and-file (mostly Sunni) are now defecting for refusing to shoot upon their fellow civilians. This is a very bad omen for the regime. Not only is defection contagious, threatening the coherence of the regime's backbone, but there is the likely chance that these combat-trained soldiers could soon form the base for an organized armed opposition supported by the international community, paving the way for a regime change a la Libya.
Sixth, the Arab initiative to end the violence in Syria has reached an impasse. On November 12th, the Arab League suspended Syria and imposed political and economic sanctions at their Cairo meeting due to the Syrian government's continued violence against protestors. After nearly two weeks of wrangling between the two sides, Damascus and the Arab foreign Ministers failed to agree on a plan that would permit 500 monitors to enter the country. The Arab states rejected what it saw as Syrian efforts to change drastically the Arab League's peace blueprint which also called on the Syrian government to immediately remove troops from cities and towns and conduct negotiations with the opposition. The failure to reach an agreement made it more than likely that the Arab League would recognize the opposition in Syria, once unified, as the sole representative of the Syrian people, very similar to Libya's National Transitional Council.
Combined, these elements lead to the conclusion that it is already too late for the Assad regime to make reforms or lead transition in Syria. Though practically doomed, the regime, the Alawite elite, the military and internal security remain resilient and generally united and will almost certainly persist in the crackdown, in what they see as a fight for their own lives and tinged with the unrealistic hope that the tide can still change in their favor.
The international community cannot sit aloof while the massacre continues in Syria, as a largely peaceful demonstration is not likely to succeed in toppling the government on its own. Thousands of Syrian people will continue to be killed either at the hands of Assad's security forces or in sectarian violence. Meanwhile, a Libyan-like international military intervention does not appear feasible as the United States (in the midst of presidential elections) and the EU have no desire to get involved in yet another Middle East conflict, especially one laden with dangerous geopolitical complications and unforeseen consequences.
A coherent strategy is urgently needed to ensure the fall of the Syrian regime and the strengthening of the democracy-seeking protests in Syria while substantially eroding Iran's grip on Damascus.
First, fearing that he may meet Qaddafi's fate and concerned that he may never regain the legitimacy needed to lead, President Assad might be willing to negotiate a safe passage and immunity from prosecution for himself, family, Alawite leaders and several dozen of his top military, internal security, and intelligence personnel. This is particularly urgent as it would need to occur before Assad and his brother are indicted by the International Criminal Court, which can happen as soon as charges of en masse killing are brought against them. Once Assad is indicted (and fearing that he will be caught and stand trial) he will be discouraged from opting for this course. For this reason, the Obama administration, in consultation with its allies, (in particular Turkey) should fully and aggressively explore this option with key Arab states, in particular Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where Assad might find safe haven and spare his country from racing ever so rapidly toward the abyss.
Should these efforts fail then other, severe measures must be considered. The international community will have to intensify the sanctions on Syria. With or without a new Security Council resolution the US and the EU must make sure to close all the loopholes and make the sanctions smart enough to target the Syrian leadership and its ability to utilize its weapon and communication systems. Moreover, failing to reach an agreement with the Arab League (in particular Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE whose merchandise exchange with Syria is close to 40% of its international trade) are more likely now to impose their own sanctions similar to Turkey.
The United States and the EU should help (and at the same time pressure) the newly formed Syrian National Council (SNC) to become a more organized and representative body of the Syrian people and its political, ethnic, and religious mosaic. The SNC must close ranks, offer a clear vision of a future Syria and an unambiguous alternative to the current regime with a specific agenda and form a "shadow government." Indeed, for the Syrian people to rally around the SNC they must have a clear sense where and how such a body is planning to lead Syria post -Assad's era. An empowered SNC, viewed as a viable alternative which demonstrates cohesiveness and a capability to manage a peaceful transition, could then receive international recognition and support (already offered by Turkey and foreshadowed by the Arab League) which would further embolden the protesters, galvanize Assad's illegitimacy to rule, and speed his departure.
The US should lead a coordinated effort to provide material support through Turkey to the protesters. While not necessarily arms, certainly logistical support, aid, and protection for the besieged communities along the lines of the Berlin Airlift of 1948-9 would be in order. Facing the full fury of the regime's security machine, Syrian protesters need to fight in self-defense and feed their families. If the international community cannot help with the former, it certainly can with the latter. Moreover, to silence Syria's air-defense system, the United States needs not launch air strikes but could instead employ cyber-warfare, an option it considered against Qaddafi's Libya.
Perhaps most importantly is the Iran factor that has become extraordinarily more worrisome to the US and its allies as the Syrian regime is becoming increasingly more dependent on Iran's material, logistical and military support. For Iran, maintaining its grip on Damascus is central to its ambitions to become the region's hegemon exercising unprecedented influence over a contiguous landmass extending from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, especially as Tehran is coming closer to acquiring nuclear weapons. This dimension has far-reaching implications for the security of US and its allies in the Gulf and presents an imperative, historic opportunity for the US and the Gulf governments to ensure a transition of power in Syria.
Only through a regime change in Damascus will Iran's exploitation of Syria's heterogeneous make up in pursuit of its hegemonic ambitions (as it has, and continues to do, in Iraq) be stopped. A stalwart suspension of Syria by the Arab League would, no doubt, open the door for bolder Western intervention to further isolate the Assad leadership and send a clear message to Iran that it will not be allowed to have a free hand in Syria.
The choice between "Assad regime-or-chaos" is no longer relevant, if it has ever been. The US with its European allies, especially Turkey, must now muster all possible means to end the slaughter in Syria. It is certainly a tall and most complicated order. There is, however, no other viable option that would also limit, if not end, Iran's direct involvement in keeping Assad in power and spare the region from a potential war that could involve Iran and Israel.
AUTHOR
Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies >>> www.alonben-meir.com
| Recently by Alon Ben-Meir | Comments | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Guns & No Roses | 11 | Jun 18, 2012 |
| Damascus & Tehran: A Separation | 31 | Feb 23, 2012 |
| Forceful Measures | 2 | Dec 21, 2011 |
RECENT COMMENTS
IRANIANS OF THE DAY
| Person | About | Day |
|---|---|---|
| نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
| Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
| Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
| احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
| Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
| Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
| گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
| Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
| محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
| Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Amirparvis part II
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Nov 29, 2011 04:54 AM PSTRegarding keeping Iran backwards: yes I know who funds MEK; Taliban and so on. I have not been under a rock. I also see another phenomena and want your opinion. That is the claim "Iranians love IRI". It comes out of fake polls. Fake analysts like Leverett / Mann. As well as those who try to dishearten Iranians. Noticed all the blogs about "Iranians are bad"; "Iranians love Islam" on IC? In my opinion it is a part of the effort. Deliberately trying to convince us of a false premise.
Regarding the WWIII I: I hope it will never happen. You should realize it will be a very destructive thing. Of course it depends on how you define it. If you mean a few localized wars that is different.
But an all out war is a disaster: best be avoided.
Amirparviz Jan
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue Nov 29, 2011 04:42 AM PSTThanks fair enough response and I need to think about them. In my opinion USA may rethink its policies for its own good. Policies you mention work if secret but fail if people know about them.
Russia: they did the hatchet job with Yeltsin. The Harvard economics goons headed by Summers took a dump on Russian. I know some Russians and had a long discussion with on over the weekend. I have also been observing developments there for decades. They have been lied to and cheated by USA since overthrow of communism. They naively thought USA was going to help them. Instead got their lands divided and economy destroyed. Therefore picked Putin and will not be trusting the West any time soon.
Iran: people as sick of Islam and we all know if. Putting aside claims by some on IC reality is Islam has run its course and is done. Iranian Islam is "pretend" Islam. People are getting educated. We lost a good 30-40 years. But now nationalism is on the rise. AN and his gang are jumping on the bandwagon and becoming nationalist. The only ones naive enough to go for the Western trick are Arabs right now. I feel bad for them but they have to find out for themselves. A shame people do not learn form others mistakes. But so it is going to go; not our problem.
Look at this Hatchet Job they did on Russia
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 07:49 PM PST2 videos //www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15926608
not exactly fair or balanced, we also know nothing of these individuals for real.
US Isn't making Iranian Youths fall in love with islam,
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 07:05 PM PSTGood questions by the way VPK.
1) How is US making Iranians youth fall in love with Islam?
For now some still wish they can have islam and freedom, less than half, their base erodes gradually. When you look at who holds power in libya or Iran, the machine guns the money and see how far away from what people want you realize how hurtful US foreign policy will be for the people and their future. Keeping these guys in control. The manipulation is to think the people even get a say, they don't. The tyranny is real. They can't remove this weight over them on their own, if they could they would have 20 years ago when a majority wanted them gone. It is the USA's foreign policy teams that loves Islam, not the youth, the manipulation is they coax the youth based on freedom, democracy, human rights, love, justice, peace and get them to rise, when they have Mullahs/MeK/muslim brotherhood ready with arms. People are powerless & used as patsys. Its worked like a charm so far. Thats the real agenda behind US funding parazit, to get as many people to make the logical error the USA wants your freedom and democracy. Sadly they don't.
2) Also why does it help US to make a bunch of frothing at the mouth maniacs.
What is the number 1 goal of the USA for resource rich nations that its economy depends on? To keep the people weak, backwards, and get what it needs for close to free, by exchanging resources for weapons. Maniacs accomplish so much for the USA, it is the usa that is in a deep love affair and just won't let go of this policy, Mullahs sell their weapons, money out of the region back to west, their madness raises oil prices, while taking less % of income, both these factors help profits, people go backwards, economy is for donkeys and allah is the law.
3) In greater scheme Iran simply does not near India or China in "threat" to USA.
Read Geopolitics of today, #1 threat is russia, #2 threat is any of these north africa or middle eastern countries becoming educated/developed etc. As long as they stay backwards, uneducated, poor, mismanaged corrupt, USA loves Islam as its goals are achieved. Both Russia and Iran have all they need for world domination/replace the USA if they chose to go for it. Shah made a peace pact with USA to be allies, but USA had other plans to maintain control of iran and it worked like a charm.
Long term this will eventually lead to WW3, but US power does not look far down the road and couldn't give a damn about down the road, just short term like a tiger seeking food. Russia is going to be the next major target after all this arab spring armed uprisings curb irans power and increase the US's goal of setting more countries backward and weaker.
What goes on!
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 28, 2011 05:53 PM PSTHow is US making Iranians youth fall in love with Islam. USA is not in a position to make Iranian youth love Islam. Besides I do not see youth or even grown ups in love with Islam. Therefore I am getting confused I am sorry really.
Also why does it help US to make a bunch of frothing at the mouth maniacs. It made some twisted sense when Soviets were around. But why should USA want to keep Iran or Africa backwards. Iran does not have the population to be a threat.
India and China are together much bigger than Iran. To keep Iran backwards while China moves along makes no sense. It is like putting out a torch while bonfire is blazing. In greater scheme Iran simply does not near India or China in "threat" to USA.
How is the US Govt keeping Iranians subdued?
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 05:18 PM PSTThat is a huge subject Rea, the subject of several books and I'm no author on the subject. US Foreign Policy says one thing and does another, its policy varies from place to place based on its interests/motives. The basic way we know for sure the USA keep Iranians Subdued is by being in Love with Islam in politics & power for Iran and playing every game to strengthen the regime at the expense of the people of Iran who don't want it now and never did want what was created.
This is not just a policy for Iran, but a policy for north Africa & the Middle east. Al Quaeda, the muslim brotherhood, Talibans, MeK Mujaheddins these all need vast amounts of money, organization, supplies etc etc to be created and function. That is who the USA helps, that subdues Iranians.
Question, Were you aware of this before you asked me?
amirparviz
by Rea on Mon Nov 28, 2011 05:02 PM PSTI've seen your link 3 or 4x on IC already. I also read in different newspapers about the same filtering system being used by IRI, N. Korea and Myanmar.
But it still does not explain how is the US Govt keeping Iranians subdued. After all, young Iranians got their messages out in 2009 just as they get them out nowadays.
Dear Rea you don't know what you are talking about
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 03:40 PM PSTIn terms of capabilities you are ignorant and so was I which is why I ask experts in the field. I'm not trying to convince you either way, just speak with non iranian experts. I'm not talking conspiracy theories and green men, I'm talking real politics, something else I would refer you to professional politicians as you are a civilian in that area too.
Throw you a bone? Okay look at this //www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/william-h... It was used by the IRI to capture one by one tens of thousands of demonstrators, put in cells and tortured and executed by the thousands. IN THE LARGEST KNOWN CASE alone over 300 demonstrators were taken with out trial and executed. THAT WAS ONE OF THOUSANDS OF LOCATIONS REGIME HAD, GOD KNOWS HOWMANY REALLY DIED. I think you have a good idea now why the US govt funds shows like Parazit, to uphold its credentials as for democracy, human rights, freedom, justice etc allowing that manipulation in will cause a grave amount of hurt Rea.
amirparvizfsm
by Rea on Mon Nov 28, 2011 02:53 PM PSTAccording to you, in this age of internet and information available to everybody, Iranians are so backward that Americans and British are still keeping them behind and subdued.
While I do agree it was valid 30 yrs ago, this is 2011, your theory no longer holds water. If anything, it has a taste of "little green people hiding behind curtains".
Amirp: I am still correcting
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 02:45 PM PSTAmirp: I am still correcting anyone who abuses the name of Iran. It works and it makes the point. Once that is done, the rest is academic.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
Yes LOL, I think we need to change our approach
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 02:15 PM PSTWe Need the politics to change behind the curtain so on this side the games are different.
IRI aside, America has made itself an enemy of democrats, they gave the president of the USA the power to Kill American citizens with out court order. This was not to kill Red Neck Americans, but to kill Naturalized citizens like iranians who want democracy for Iran and are working on regime change.
Not only is the politics against Iran, its gone so far that if you are an Iranian Living in the USA you really aren't safe if you have impact against Islamists. According to proof from wikileaks, the internet is the biggest surveilance machine ever built and used for that purpose against Americans.
Amirp: oh yeah right. You
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 01:44 PM PSTAmirp: oh yeah right. You mean the shit that keeps me busy. lol
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
By Games I mean
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 01:42 PM PSTThe Corruption of the Press & Its bias. The way news presents issues, so that governments can Manipulate large numbers of people and hurt them badly, referred to as soft power. The media is basically a tool used to keep islamists in power, due to the political power that has already decided on this policy.
Amirp: what do you mean by
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 01:25 PM PSTAmirp: what do you mean by games?
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
VPK Great Point! Ali the agendas and policies how to change it?
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 01:21 PM PSTVPK The people that I communicate on IC that don't use bullie tactics or wish to sensor me, those are the ones who based on their actions I can say are really for democracy in Iran, the rest are not real democrats & they won't stop at insulting and humiliating those they want to shut up.
Alimostofi. The point is the mainstream media and politics in the USA is controlled by money, what we see in the papers is more a reflection of political policies already decided, the games reflect that (not the other way around) so how does one change the political element so the media element handles itself.
RPII is basically surrounded by jasoos-ha, and he can't change the political dynamic as he has been check mated for now from doing anything. Ideas? People wrongly assume the USA/UK are after Regime change, they're totally manipulated, they never have been and aren't now. Syria proves they just want to contain IRI's power. Islamist Growth policy continues!!!!!!!!!
Things are changing daily
by Rea on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:52 AM PSTOf kors, nothing to do with the ongoing crisis.
Amirp: The Taliban of Iran
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:51 AM PSTAmirp: The Taliban of Iran ...
Time and time again, we end all these discussions on the same note. Call a Spade a Spade they say. If the NYT BBC referred to them as The Taliban of Iran, then no one would bat an eye-lid, if the USS Enterprise knocked the shit out of them. So why don't they tell that son of a bitch whateva, you are not Iran, and get the f... out of UN. The reason is that USS Enterprise wants to be funded. That is the root of the problem. Obama wants to instigate 1 trillion dollar arms budget reduction, and the US forces are shitting in their pants. They want some hairy Hezbollahi, to get into the ring with them, and tear up the Persian carpet together.
Ugly words. But I had to vomit.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
Dear Alimostofi
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:48 AM PSTYou are right about delusions. If IRI is so popular why do they buy phone tracking software from Britain. Why do they not allow any kind of gathering. Or march their 30 thousand goons in Tehran to scare the *** out of people.
A popular government needs not do that kind of thing. But sadly we have people who think they know it all. Reason and logic go nowhere because they don't care. Good news is it does not matter. Because venting on IC makes no difference.
Meanwhile who say they are "democratic" people bash anyone who differs 1% from them. The best proof of things is how people behave. I am seeing it right now on this blog.
This Alon Ben Meir Guy Consciously Lies about Iran
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:48 AM PSTHe knows the IRI or "the Hezbollahi Party In Power In Iran" is not Iran, yet he drags Irans name in the dirt.
There may be Nothing Iranians can do to stop this kind of Manipulation from continuing, but we as a community must not fall for it, because if we do then we are allowing a Huge amount of Pain and hurt into our lives. So first stop this manipulation being effective on you and allowing the hurt in, second awaken others as to what is going on.
Call the Mullahs in power what they are, not Iran, but the Hezbollahi Party in power in Iran. The Author Shamefully, disgracefully misrepresents IRAN.
Fesenjoon what some Iranians want is not a possibility.
by amirparvizforsecularmonarchy on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:49 AM PST"They want to have an Islamic system, but also want freedoms and prosperity in it." LOL
They want to remain ignorant, yet be a force for good, for themselves and for others. Well it's just not going to happen. My recommendation is that they list all their wants and put it in one hand, then got to the mostara and S$%t in their other hand and reflect on which happened and which did not.
What you are saying makes perfect sense for a large group of Iranians which is why they will remain manipulated and badly hurt, a victim of their own ignorance, however there are a growing majority of Iranians who due to the immense pain they are suffering have realized this will just not work and Religion needs to leave politics. Islam is losing in Iran daily.
Hezbollah Elections in Iran
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:20 AM PSTTiming of Hezbollahi elections in Nowruz, is there for one reason only. The Hezbollah have realised that they would be ignored. So they try to capture Iranians, when they are in a good mood. That good mood makes them jealous. They would not dare, to have their lousy election, on some Shiite holiday, would they? They wouldn't dare have it on Feb 11th. Facts. Enough said.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
AO
by Fesenjoon2 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:14 AM PSTI swear the God, man. Sometimes I see some of these educated posters, and it's as if theyre directly defending those IRI bastards.
Like take Mohammad Ala. His intentions may be good, but when I read his posts and blogs, it's as if he's protecting IRI!
I mean, there would be no navy conflict if those morons would not be insisting for war everyday shouting "jang jang taa piroozi!" During the entire 8 years, they kept shouting that slogan everywhere! They kept saying "raah-e Qods az karbalaa migozarad".
There would be no scientific sanctions if Iran didnt have a culture of shouting "marg bar een...marg bar oon".
There would be no negativity about Iran everywhere, if each time Ahmadinejad came to NY, he would focus on economic ties instead of mocking the holocaust and spewing shit about Israel and the the west.
I dont understand why these people go to such lengths to protect and appease those blood thirsty bastards. Their Imam even has a bloody name for crying out loud: "Hosein, blood of Allah".
What is there to defend when the core is rotten?
F: dellusional .... If the
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:54 AM PSTF: dellusional ....
If the Hezbollah Party in Iran was as popular, then why do they create a fake opposition. Please please wake up. Watch how they banned the opposition. Karoubi et al. are Hezbollah Party members, but pretend to be opposition. Iran culture as in Nowruz is a 70 million opposition. Face the facts. Enough said.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
Fesnejoon - very true
by Anonymous Observer on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:53 AM PSTThey would rather take sides with a mullah, than with a "beegaaneh" or "ajnabee", even if the mullah is fucking his wife.
Very true. That's the misplaced pride that I'm talking about. Plus, Iranians are xenophobic to begin with. Lastly, they think that the world revolves around them and that every country on the planet is thinking about Iran and how to take over Iran and kill Iranians 24/7.
AO
by Fesenjoon2 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:43 AM PSTThe interesting part is that American policy makers often make the same error as well, not just our resident IC posters.
They dont see the true picture of Iran: People are critical of the government and the system, but not critical enough to want to pull it down altogether. They want to have an Islamic system, but also want freedoms and prosperity in it. They would rather take sides with a mullah, than with a "beegaaneh" or "ajnabee", even if the mullah is fucking his wife.
F: Anarchy ..... No one runs
by alimostofi on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:42 AM PSTF: Anarchy .....
No one runs Iran. A lot of people are trying to ruin Iran, and they have failed too. Gangsters run their own little quarters, but do not step outside their ganglands. Critical areas are under certain IRGC people. Bombs will remove their ammunitions. So it is very easy to change it. Next question is why hasn't it happened? People need to see a proper government in exile appointed by UN to make sensible decisions. It is very simple. Just do it. Stop the natter. Enough said.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
No, you didnt prove ANYTHING
by Fesenjoon2 on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:32 AM PSTYour version of "proof" is pretty similar to Salman Farsi's proofs.
You have absolutely no clue whatsoever about who runs Iran, and how it is run.
My point proved
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:00 AM PSTIf you want to count me as an IRI supporter then sure you get 99%. It is all in the counting. I am one of the most anti-IRI people you would find. But by Fesenjoon's accounting I go in the "supporter column". Hence the results.
That is great because it really proves my point.They are counting opposition as supporters. I don't have to be foaming at the mouth to oppose IRI; I do it in my more calm fashion. If people in Iran think as I do then you may say bye to IRI right now.
I want IRI gone but I have no intention of killing Muslims. Nor do I support bombing Iran back to the stone age. It is called being reasonable and level headed. People may choose my path or another.
Example of tacit support of the IR
by Anonymous Observer on Mon Nov 28, 2011 09:52 AM PSTby Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Nov 25, 2011 03:13 PM PST
...
As for anti-Jewish pictures yes they are. And there is an anti-Iranian picture in Texas. It does not mean Americans want to lynch Iranians. It is a stupid picture just like those.
//iranian.com/main/blog/fesenjoon2/how-destroy-israel
Equating three decades of well funded, official, government sponsored militant anti-Semitism with some idiot's poster in a shit town in Texas. That is how IR's image is glossed over and presented to the world with the help of Iranians inside and outside of Iran who are either too stupid to realize what they're doing, too brainwahsed by 32 years of IR propaganda, or carry too much misplaced pride to realize what a toilet their country has become.
And trust me, you're not alone, you are the 99%!!
AO
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Nov 28, 2011 09:38 AM PSTRepeating the same thing does not make it true; although you are welcome to do it. Remember Khomeini died in 1989. That is 23 years ago. People who worshiped him were the generation that brought the revolution.
Most Iranian population is 26 years. Meaning more than half the population was not born or under 4 years old then! How could you possibly draw conclusion you make now? If Iranians support IRI as you say then:
Now assume you are right and Iranian majority supports the system. I don't buy it but for the sake of argument let us go with that assumption. In the short term there is no hope. If Americans did a regime change they will hold elections. If Iraq or Afghanistan are models then you just get another IRI. Maybe not quite as bad but pretty bad,. Why do you bother with debating. You are an American citizen or on your way to becoming one. As I hope is Fesenjoon. So go live and enjoy your life. What do you hope to gain on IC?