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Utter Lonliness of Iranian People
27-Jan-2012
We have seen repeated cycles of intensified rhetoric of aggression between the U.S. and the Iranian regime on a regular basis for at least six to seven years now. Every time the rhetoric heats up, the armies of commentators on all sides get into their now familiar routines. The western powers and their allies insist on the usual demands for accountability from the Iranian regime regarding its nuclear program, while the Islamic Republic regime insists on its inalienable right to pursue nuclear energy, and the various west-residing lobbyists for the Iranian regime start their frenzied petition gatherings, letter/commment writing, and warn everybody of the impending and imminent war about to break out, and the disaster such a war would create for the people. As a result, the lobbyists for the regime as well as more 'level-headed' people call for open, unconditional negotiations (implicitly asking the western powers to recognize the Islamic regime as it is as a legitimate entity representing the people).
And of course, a good part of the western left also continues to see things only in a black and white picture, in which the U.S. and its western allies are the baddies and the Iranian regime is a poor, overly oppressed entity; in the process conveniently forgetting all the terror this regime unleashes on the Iranian people on a daily basis.
Just about everybody forgets the people of Iran, who continue to be held hostage by a mad policy of nuclear adventurism, just so the Iranian regime can gain some bullying rights in the region.
The western powers, however, do not seem to want an open war with Iran. Sabotage, yes. Diplomatic and economic pressures, of course. But, no open war.
To this end, in the past week we have seen the U.S. putting pressure on Israel to tone down its war rhetoric against Iran, and now president Sarkozy is warning the world about the dire consequences of a military attack on Iran.
Here are some points to consider:
1) It should be noted that any open war with Iran would actually help the trend to solidify the regime, not change it. Any military moves, much like the current sanctions and sabotage campaign, would be intended as an act to induce change of behavior without fundamentally changing the regime.
This is exactly why the militant faction inside the Islamic Republic regime would actually welcome a limited military confrontation.
The people of Iran will be the only losers, as they are the only losers now. They and only they, as they do now, will bear the cost in life, health, in economic deprivation, in increased social misery, in more violence and terror hanging over their heads, and of course it is the people who will suffer from further militarization of their society, and the dominance of various mafias, including the state-controlled and related ones.
The further misery for the people is exactly what the imperialists want. One major point here missed by a lot of western left is that, by equating the people of Iran with the state, they actually forget that for the Iranian state too, the people are dispensable. The mullahs' regime has a historical record to prove this disregard for people's lives.
During the Iran-Iraq war, by 1982 Iranian forces had repelled the Iraqi forces from all Iranian territory that had been invaded. At this point, the war could have ended, but the war had proven invaluable in the consolidation of the clerical regime, so they continued it for another SIX years; in the process, sending hundreds of thousands of people (on both sides) to their deaths under the slogan, 'The road to Jerusalem runs through Baghdad'.
An open fight with the Great Satan can definitely be put to the same use; especially, considering how hated the regime is by the majority of the Iranian people right now. Such open confrontation can be used most efficiently to more effectively suppress any form of dissent.
2) I really don't think the U.S. wants an open war. They are fully aware of the fact that Iran has TWO SETS of militaries (three, if you include the millions-strong - according to the state itself - Basij forces). This military force, unlike what happened to Iraq before being invaded, has NOT been bombarded for a whole decade and some, and its infrastructure has not been completely destroyed. The Iranian regime has vast capabilities, totally intact, including their own military industries, developed during the Iran-Iraq war and well financed ever since. They have their hands in Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and can make those places put some real heat on the Americans. So, if push comes to shove, the Iranian side is well capable of shoving back.
3) The most reasonable explanation I've come across is that the present rise in rhetoric and covert actions could well be the blustering before the sides sit down to negotiate, so the Iranian state has chosen to go on the offensive of its own (in response to the offensive by the west, and instead of backing down) with the aim of raising the ante and maneuvering for a negotiating position that is to its benefit.
4) I think the path of economic sanctions is the Americans' preferred path to achieving change of behavior by the Iranian regime. The Americans know that the Iranian regime is illegitimate, which is exactly why they want it in place (even if some of the faces have to be changed). The Americans therefore know well how mafia-infested the Iranian state apparatuses are. And because they know this, they also know that the regime needs cash to buy its foot soldiers. So, if they can cut the flow of cash, the foot soldiers can then be bought by the rivals and certain modification can be achieved without a hugely costly war, which if it really breaks out in the open, could truly and seriously be too costly for the Americans, and the end-result of it is truly unknown.
5) On the key question being used as an excuse to put pressure on Iran, the nuclear issue, the argument has long been lost. Neither the Iranian opposition (the people, that is, not the reformists), nor anybody else is calling for a complete and total stoppage of all nuclear activity based on environmental and safety grounds. Even after the horrible and ongoing disaster in Japan, a country that compared to Iran is far more technologically advanced and far more thorough-going as far as safety is concerned, even after it has been established that the nuclear plant in Bushehr is sitting on top of an active tectonic plate, even after is has been established for thirty-three years that the Iranian government is not responsive, accountable or responsible toward the Iranian people and in fact considers them as cannon fodder for its bankrupt and expansionist ideology; even after all these factors have become self-evident, still nobody is talking about the most rational and most people-oriented solution: stoppage of all nuclear activity in Iran.
So, the skirmishes between the western powers and Iran over its nuclear program have become, and will continue to remain, the convenient bone of contention to be picked with the Iranian regime.
Gone is any global attention to the atrocious human rights conditions in Iran, gone are the workers' rights, women's rights, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of press, gone is attention to the extremely dire situation of the political prisoners. There is not even any concern raised over the risks of contamination which would threaten the people living near nuclear facilities, should a serious accident or earthquake happen, for example, at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. In short, gone is any form of love for and solidarity with the people of Iran.
For the state powers involved, as well as for a good portion of the western left, the Iranian people have been collapsed into the Iranian regime, and whatever the Iranian regime or the western powers say becomes the criteria for the discussions. Unfortunately, the western left continues to reinforce this same rhetorical line. We see leftist publications that point to all the horrors and the implications of the Japanese nuclear disaster for the nuclear industry in the U.S., yet the same publications are rabidly support even a military nuclear project of a theocracy, under which not a single one of those western leftists would be willing to live, not even for one day.
The Iranian people alone (in their utter loneliness) remain the only factor capable of enacting true liberation from this madness. Unless the Iranian people take to the streets and intervene with the demand for BOTH no military attacks or economic sanctions AND against the Islamic regime, i.e., unless the Iranian people once again take their collective fate into their own hands, their future will remain one of despair and helplessness, and they will remain the hapless pawns in the power games of the western powers and the Islamic regime.
AUTHOR
Rostam Rakhshian is an Iranian socialist and can be reached at: rostamrakhshian@gmail.com
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Obama's new tax will force
by alimostofi on Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:52 AM PSTObama's new tax will force US companies to leave China. Hezbollahis are there because of the Chinese, who in turn are there because of Apple and Wal-Mart.
//www.nasdaq.com/article/us-industry-frets-ov...
US companies rule.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
Khastan = Tavanestan
by AMIR1973 on Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:39 AM PSTAccording to this line of "thinking", if Iranians (or North Koreans, etc) want change they will get change. End of story. In the meantime, let's just lift the sanctions and do some business with the IRI!
Change will come....
by Mohammad Alireza on Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:12 AM PST...when Iranians are prepared to give their life for (blank).
You can fill in the blank, or blanks.
It's that simple.
Be it freedom,
Be it democracy,
Be it peace,
Be prepared to die for it.
And the Iranian people are not their yet.
Agha Sadegh,
by AMIR1973 on Sat Jan 28, 2012 10:35 AM PSTYour comments are becoming progressively more asinine. Targeted sanctions (e.g. travel bans, etc on IRGC and Basiji thugs who never travel to the West anyway) are meaningless and worthless "feel-good" measures. Those are precisely the measures "which have been tried and have failed". What has NOT been tried and given time to work are comprehensive sanctions (e.g. expelling all IRI so-called "diplomats", oil embargo, sanctions on the Central Bank, etc). The ultimate source of pain and misery for Iranians is the Islamist terrorist tyranny which has been ruling the country for 33 years. And you're point about "moving to Iran" is asinine in the extreme: presumably, supporters of sanctions against apartheid South Africa and Myanmar also should move those countries. Right? LOOLLL!
Rastgoo: I'm inclined to
by vildemose on Sat Jan 28, 2012 09:03 AM PSTRastgoo: I'm inclined to agree with you. As I had stated couple of years ago on this site, the plan is to radicalize the whole region so they will have a legitimate excuse to wipe them all out even nuking them if they have to.
A state of war only serves as an excuse for domestic tyranny.--Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.
Pessiminstic
by Rastgoo on Sat Jan 28, 2012 08:54 AM PSTI am very pessimistic towards this whole situation. The actions of the US and European countries have cornered Iran into a situation where war is very likely. Unless Iran reaches a settlement with the West's "moving target conditions" I believe there will be war after the US elections. Iran and Iranians have been dehumanized by the media and the scene is set to bomb Iran just like they bombed Iraq in 1991. There will be no regime change and the country's infrastructure will be destroyed. Sanctions will continue and lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. The whole region will go up in flames as Iran will retaliate against the gulf states. The only winner short term is: Israel. This is their evil plan for Iran and the entire middle east: to cause regional conflicts so that the attention can be diverted from their apartheid state and their land grab policies. Let's all pray that there will be a coup by whoever that loves Iran and Iranians above Islam and get rid of this corrupt and treacherous regime.
Sadegh Bozorgmehr
by alimostofi on Sat Jan 28, 2012 03:00 AM PSTIranian culture has successfully distilled Hezbollahis. In that respect there is unity. Hezbollahis have the support of mainstream medias' disinformation. They refer to Hezbollahis as Iranians. So we have just one simple problem. It is the way Hezbollahis are described by mainstream media. Obama refers to them as Iranians. The nuclear fiasco forces the media to write about them. That gives them the opportunity to make them look Iranian more and more.
So our qualm is with the media outside Iran. My personal qualm is why the expats do not correct the media, when they call the Hezbollahis "Iranian". Our campaign can be fought right here in the internet, if everyone of you was vigilant and defended the abuse of the word "Iran". That is "The Uprising" that can be done by you right here right now and you have not done it.
Very simple. It is our own fault. Once the Hezbollahis are not treated as representativee of Iran, and the UN votes to have a National Council appointed because of Human Rights abuses, then we are on thr correct path. The King has in this respect taken the first step after 33 years.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
ali mostofi
by Sadegh Bozorgmehr on Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:56 PM PSTNot as "simple" as you claim.
I think Iranian exiles over exaggerate their role in removing IRI (at least direct role).
Iranians in the West can have a decisive impact in changing the policy of their host country toward Iran, and in that way make the atmosphere in Iran more conducive to some kind of an uprising.
Here I think there exists two schools of thought. Some think that pressure (sanctions, threat of war etc.) will make life so miserable for Iranians that they will topple the IRI, and others believe that lack of pressure would open up society and put the preconditions in place for people to topple IRI.
But as far as directly causing Iranians to rise up, I must ask you what realistic thing can Iranian exiles do? Hakha and Zia and others have for years directly asked people in Iran to topple the IRI, and I need not tell you how pathetic the result of their calls have been.
So realistically tell me what can be done. Btw, as much as Iranian exiles are divided into factions and hate eachother, I cannot see a national council as realistic either.
Rostam; National Council
by alimostofi on Fri Jan 27, 2012 11:08 PM PSTAs a socialist, can you think of a cultural unity to oppose the Hezbollahis.
The key question is, why is it that people like yourself cannot think outside politics. Quite simply a national council needs to be appointed just like the Syrians have, that is recognised by the UN and the rest will follow accordingly. Simple.
Ali Mostofi
//twitter.com/alimostofi
a self explanatory EYE WITNESS report from Iran...
by afshin jam on Fri Jan 27, 2012 05:09 PM PSTPersonally I am against war. An Eye witness report , SOME-ONE WHO LIVES IN IRAN, REPORTING COUINTRARY TO WHAT THE AUTHOR CLAIMS HERE
" از یک گزارش دریافتی
مردم، آذوقه جنگی
در فروشگاه ها می خرند!
سلام- من از منطقه گیشا این پیام را برایتان می نویسم. اینجا وضع وحشتناک شده. باورتان نمیشود، امروز رفته بودم یکی از فروشگاه های سپه. همه حبوبات و ماکارونی به مقدار زیاد میخریدند. عده ای به مردم توصیه می کردند کنسرو قوطی بخرید. می گفتند این بار اگر جنگ شود، مثل جنگ عراق نیست، گاز و برق و آب در معرض خطر است و اگر اینها صدمه ببیند، امکان پختن ندارید. کسانی که بچه کوچک دارند بشدت نگرانند. دلهره مثل خوره به جان مردم افتاده است. همه به حکومت فحش میدهند. از بالا تا پائینش که احمدی نژاد است. زیر و روی کل نظام را میگویند. هیچ ترسی از بردن نام افراد هم ندارند، حتی با صفات بد.
نارضائی بیداد میکند. گرانی از یک طرف و خطر جنگ از طرف دیگر. من زبانم نمی گردد این را بگویم که مردم دیگر از موسوی و کروبی هم عبور کرده اند. یعنی می گویند که وضع دیگر آنقدر خراب شده که از دست آنها هم کاری ساخته نیست. همه از جنگ می ترسند، اما در همان حال، علنی می گویند که شاید با حمله از شر اینها خلاص شویم.
یه تلنگر کافیه تا همه چیز زیر و رو شود. این فکر که جوان ها برای جنگ سینه سپر کنند، خواب و خیال حکومت است. هیچکس حاضر نیست برای حکومت بجنگد. زندگی بازماندگان جنگ عراق و اثرات آن جنگ را مردم می بینند. در محلات فقیر تهران، گرانی و آزاد شدن نرخ مایحتاج اولیه مردم مثل نان از یک طرف و تاخیر و ناتوانی در پرداخت یارانه ها از سوی دیگر شرایط شورش را بوجود آورده است.
مردم اسم اختلاف بین حکومتی ها را گذاشته اند قداره کشی مشایی و مجتبی. در همان فروشگاه سپه مردم با اشاره به حمله به ایران می گفتند: نمی دانیم چرا اینقدر فس و فس می کنند!
شما خودتان حدس بزنید که جان مردم چگونه به لبشان رسیده که ویرانی و مرگ را به وضع کنونی ترجیح میدهند.
(پیک نت- ما درعین حال که توانستیم با نویسنده این پیام تماس برقرار کرده و جزئیات بیشتری را از او بپرسیم، خود تفسیری بر این گزارش نمی افزائیم. مگر عکس هائی که دیروز از فروشگاه های خالی تهران مخابره شد را جداگانه، درهمین شماره پیک نت منتشر کنیم که کردیم.) "
پیک نت 8 بهمن
Deal
by Sadegh Bozorgmehr on Fri Jan 27, 2012 03:51 PM PSTTargetted sanctions against the IRI are great. Sanctions that hurt Iranians, different story. You say that without sanctions the survival of the IRI is guaranteed, suggesting that with sanctions the opposite will happen. Since we have had sanctions and the IRI is not gone, the statement you make is meaningless. Therefore, as an advocate of sanctions you must post proof that you live in Iran, Amir. And when sanctions are lifted and the IRI continues to survive, I will post pictures of my shack in Iran.
How about another new rule?
by AMIR1973 on Fri Jan 27, 2012 03:36 PM PSTThose opposing sanctions against the IRI have to live under the IRI's rule (since without sanctions, the continued rule of the IRI is a virtual guarantee).
New Rule (a la Bill Maher)
by Sadegh Bozorgmehr on Fri Jan 27, 2012 03:26 PM PSTAnyone advocating war or sanctions on Iranians from outside of Iran must move to Iran with their families.
Solution
by Fred on Fri Jan 27, 2012 03:13 PM PSTNo sane person wants or advocates war.
You disqualify sanctions which have worked in other similar cases, South African and Myanmar.
Your only solution is: “unless the Iranian people once again take their collective fate into their own hands,” which means Iranians coming out to be once again raped and murdered out in the open.
Unless you really mean status quo is fine, which is not fine for the people being brutalized and the sane world worried about the messianic nuts getting nuke, aren’t you implicitly advocating military option which you explicitly denounce?