UN Sanctions…Going Through the Motions

by DM

All the bluster about UN sanctions is just that. They won’t work because:

1. China won’t support them.

2. Russia won’t support them.

3. And even if China and Russia did support them in some watered-down form, the IRI would simply use the sanctions to camouflage their own gross mismanagement of the economy, thereby prolonging the amount of time they can hold onto power.

I bet the IRI is even hoping for sanctions on gasoline imports, so that when they lift the subsidies as planned and the price of gas quadruples, they can blame the US and rally some less-than-committed reformists around the flag. Forget about that last “election”…the West is trying to keep Iran down.

I believe that sanctions can sometimes be effective. And if I thought sanctions would help bring down the IRI, I would support them in a second. But better to do nothing than give the IRI a rallying point by pushing for something that doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of coming to meaningful fruition. 


Recently by DMCommentsDate
Wicked Wisdom
Jan 28, 2010
This Revolution Might Take a While
Jan 13, 2010
Jumping the Shark
Dec 03, 2009
more from DM

I'm not against all

by DM on

I'm not against all sanctions, Argebam, I'm just sceptical that the UN has the collective will to apply meaningful ones that couldn't be easily circumvented by the IRI.

I do support some of the unilateral sanctions that currently prevent US companies from selling advanced military technology and things of the like to the IRI, although I also think there's a lot of pointless restrictions of common dual-use items on the list as well. Sanctions or not, you can buy almost anything in Iran, it's just a matter of whether the IRGC or other black marketeers get a cut. I don't see how that's helping to bring the regime down.


Also remeber

by argebam on

If there are no sanctions, companies like Nokia and Siemens can sell all kinds of survelance technology to IRI in order to supress the democratic movement. We may not understand that the green movement and "Etesaab" by Iranians is an internal "Civil disobedience" and it translates to internal sanctions. So why should we be against external sanctions!!!!!!!!!!


Sanctions are not for bringing down IRI rather stop the bomb

by argebam on

Sanctions are not for bringing down IRI. They have not worked in recent years for two reasons

1-They were not strong sanctions (considering, Yugoslavia, Sierra leone, Lybia, Iraq,...) the reason for being weak were Russia and China

2- Price of oil was high and IRI paid the price (price of oil since then has stabled and decreased and IRI can have less of a chance to flex its muscles in Syria, Lebonan etc.

US or other countries will not try to change the government, it is our job as Iranian people. They just want a leverage to negotiate over the ATomic bomb. This time it may work or at least bring IRI to negotiating table if they are not sucessful we will have more of chance to face the war. Therefor I support sanctions unlike NIAC which is has been preaching a grand bargain to US congress.

Sanctions most likely will not pass through the UN but will imposed unilaterally by US and EU. Recent history has shown that when economy in Iran is in trouble , Iranians will blame the conservatives, that is why Khatmi got the votes. I conclude thet our 1st priority is to weaken Ahmadinejad's government then we will handle the Iran's government as a whole. And if Ahmadinejad get the bomb then we are in trouble and will face a complete militirazation of the country.


To Vildemose and Jigsawnovich

by DM on

For what it's worth, I agree that the IGRC profit greatly from the non-UN sanctions currently in force.

Most of the sanctions do squat in terms of keeping items out of Iran--you can buy pretty much anything in Iran that you can in the US, it's just that the black market/IGRC gets a cut and Dubai sees a lot of business. I'm sure there are exceptions--high-end military technology that isn't dual use, etc.--and I support efforts to keep that kind of stuff out of the hands of the IRI. For the rest of it, why bother. I'm not saying we should welcome the IRI into the international community with open arms, but we should be realistic about what we can achieve and not try to do things that: a. don't work, and b. give the IRI something to demagogue. 


to: vildemose

by jigsawnovich on


if you are right, then loosening rather than tightening sanctions would not only take some of the hot air out of the IRGC, but could create legal competition with the black market that could also hurt the IRGC financially? that's intense, partly because if:

- sanctons = - IRGC profits,

then perhaps it would also be true that 

+ sanctions = + IRGC profits.

still, some sanctions might hurt the IRGC, if the sanctions specifically make buying some tech more difficult and/or expensive for them.





to: jigsawnovich

by vildemose on

The IRGC is in total control of Iran's economy and military. They don't want free market to interfer with their monopoly on all economic lever of the country.

 The IRGC will not allow the sanctions to be lifted because it will get in the way of their profiteering.



what would happen if sanctions were loosened instead?

by jigsawnovich on

what would the impact on the IRI regime be?  what would the impact on the Iranian pro-democracy people be? would it be possible to loosen sanctions on businesses that do not have an impact on international security while tightening those that do?  could the US tighten sanctions against companies like Nokia-Siemens, who sold spy tech to the IRI, but loosen sanctions against companies that do not deal with spy tech, nuclear, military or defense tech?  or does Sepah have so many business dealings at this point, that loosening any sanctions against Iran would help oppressive elements in the regime?

hmm...loosening rather than tightening sanctions would seem to take the wind out of the regime's sails in terms of their rallying rhetoric, but how many Iranians inside Iran are really listening or believe the regime's rhetoric at this point any way?