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This Revolution Might Take a While
13-Jan-2010
“There is no other state figure whom I could appreciate and like more.”
-- Jimmy Carter, to the Shah
"We welcome you here as not only an old friend, as a progressive leader of your own people, but as a world statesman of the first rank."
-- Richard Nixon, to the Shah
Since the disputed election there’s been a lot written about parallels between the unrest we see in Iran today and what happened in the late 1970s. The combination of massive street protests, and a government that resorts to violence to put down these protests, have led many to conclude that we are witnessing a reprise of that era.
And perhaps we are, in some fashion. Certainly the current regime has suffered a grievous loss of legitimacy, and that does not bode well for its long-term survival. But I’d be surprised if this revolution proceeds with the same speed as the last. Beyond the fact that the Green Movement at present lacks a Khomeini-like figure it can rally around, my skepticism stems from the fact that Khamenei, unlike the Shah, is a cornered man whose only real option is to fight it out.
One of the reasons the 1979 revolution ended the way it did was that the Shah, when he was suffering from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and his regime was crumbling, had the option of leaving Iran to live in relative comfort outside the country.
This option was open to him because, over the course of his long reign, the Shah had formed friendships and bonds with ideological allies all around the world. So in 1979, when he was at risk of being drawn and quartered by angry revolutionaries in Iran, it was not surprising that one of these allies—Anwar Sadat of Egypt—offered him sanctuary. This despite the IRI’s insistence that he be extradited back to Iran to be tried and likely executed. Morocco, the Bahamas, and Mexico followed suit. And, of course, the Carter administration eventually allowed Shah to receive medical care in the United States, an act of mercy which precipitated the embassy takeover and hostage crisis. (I don’t mean to suggest that the Carter administration was rolling out the welcome mat—they weren’t. But the Shah’s ties to the US were deep and he had powerful political allies—particularly Henry Kissenger and David Rockefeller—who eventually helped persuade Carter to grant the Shah a visa.)
Fast forward to the present. Khamenei hasn’t traveled outside of Iran since becoming Supreme Leader, and rarely meets with foreign leaders who come to visit him. And no other country in the world subscribes to the notion of velayat-e faqih—so, unlike the Shah, Khamenei has no natural ideological allies. Even the Shiite Grand Ayatollahs in Iraq don’t support him.
When the opposition in Iran eventually prevails — as I believe someday they will — certainly the Bahamas won’t be offering Khamenei a get-out-of-jail-free card in the form of a house on Paradise Beach, which is what the Shah was offered.
What about Russia, then? You can bet that Putin, or whoever else is running Russia at the time, is going to be a lot more concerned about not pissing off the new government in Iran than they will be about ensuring Khamenei’s safety.
China? The communist government is officially atheist and disdains organized religion. The Chinese tolerate Khamenei and his gang because of oil. While there’s some genuine warmth between the people of China and Iran, given that they’re both ancient cultures that have been ill-treated at times by the West, there’s no personal affinity in China for Khamenei the man.
Maybe if push came to shove Khamenei could find someplace to hole up in. (The sanctuary Idi Amin received in Saudi Arabia gives hope gives hope to dictators all over the world.) But I doubt anyplace short of a virtual prison would leave Khamenei feeling secure. He’s made quite a few enemies over the years.
Which makes me think this revolution we see unfolding in slow motion isn’t going to end the way the 1979 one did, despite some superficial similarities between the two eras. The Shah had a choice of fight or flight and in the end decided leaving Iran was the more prudent option. Khamenei’s choice is more stark. He’s backed himself into an ideological corner that is crazy, dark, and without any exits. So he’ll fight as hard as he can, for as long as he can—not because he’s brave and fighting for a cause, but simply to survive.
Which is one of the reasons why this revolution, already in progress, will likely take a while.
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But I'd argue that 'changing
by vildemose on Mon Jan 18, 2010 09:10 AM PSTBut I'd argue that 'changing the system from within' is just code for a velvet revolution. Top opposition leaders want to weaken the system of velayat-e faqih and strenghten the office of the Presidency, essentially turning Iran into a democracy in which you have a ceremonial Supreme Leader. Jafari, the head of the IRGC said as much himself:
//www.payvand.com/news/10/jan/1126.html
Indeed, that is the plan. However, everyone is underestimating Ahamdinejad and the Hojatieh sect. They have a completely different plan for Iran; one without a republic whatsoever and without VF.
Weighing In
by DM on Sat Jan 16, 2010 05:42 AM PSTOnlyiran: You make a great point about South Lebanon and Hezbollah. I tend to think it would be viewed as an absolute last resort, however, rather than a safe place to seek sanctuary.
Mamadali, you wrote: "Is there a 'revolution'? No there isn't. The fundamentals don't exist. A few burned cars and green scarfs by a few discontents a
revolution doesn't make." While I think its certainly fair game to dispute whether or not what we are seeing in Iran amounts to a revolution, you are grossly mischaracterizing what has happened since the disputed election. Leaving aside the fact that millions have taken to the streets, there's still the Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khatami, and Karroubi factor to consider...these guys are some of the top power brokers in the IRI. They're not just a 'few discontents'. To be sure, they're not talking about completely getting rid of the IRI. They, and no doubt many others in Iran, want to change the system from within. But I'd argue that 'changing the system from within' is just code for a velvet revolution. Top opposition leaders want to weaken the system of velayat-e faqih and strenghten the office of the Presidency, essentially turning Iran into a democracy in which you have a ceremonial Supreme Leader. Jafari, the head of the IRGC said as much himself:
//www.payvand.com/news/10/jan/1126.html
Shushatri
by Cost-of-Progress on Fri Jan 15, 2010 06:58 PM PSTGol gofti.
mamadali wears Islamic specs.....
Also referred to madali, mamali, mali,....baraboom, barabeem...
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IRAN FIRST
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mamadali....
by shushtari on Fri Jan 15, 2010 01:58 PM PSTwith all due respect, it's you that's out of touch brother....
you really believe the evil mullahs who have raped, killed, stolen, and committed every sin in the book, are willing or able to change????!!!!
come on, don't make us laugh......
nobody wants the US or anyone else to step in and help, but the akhoonds will NOT go quietly, they need to feel the pain of brute force....before they will crawl back into a cave somewhere....
have no doubt, these people in the streets who are shouting death to khamenei don't want a mellower version of the akhoonds.......it's time to pack up and get the hell out of iran.....
these are the majority of the population who have been born and raised under the mullahs.....you can't rule when your people hate your guts!
Faulty Logic, Even More Faulty Premise
by mamadali on Fri Jan 15, 2010 11:12 AM PSTIs there a 'revolution'? No there isn't. The fundamentals don't exist. A few burned cars and green scarfs by a few discontents a revolution doesn't make.
A vast majority of the people want change but within the 'system'. This is not unusual and very normal. Let's mature and not use the semantics of inferiority like 'revolution' and 'maybe America can help'. We are Iranians and we are better than that (which a vast majority are). Yes much can be improved, but let's keep our heads high and make change ourselves and ignore these types of 'deep analyses' from questionable 'analysts' with very little information at best and at worst as ill-wishing tools against the our dear Meehan-intentional or not.
They will end up in South Lebanon
by Onlyiran on Fri Jan 15, 2010 09:55 AM PSTThey sure have invested enough money there to be a good sanctuary for them. And at the end, all the survivors of the top echelon of the IRI mafia, including Khamenei (if still alive), will take a plane across Turkey to Syria and from there they will drive by land to South Lebanon. Once there, with the help of all the weapons and billions of dollars of Iran's treasury that they have already hidden there, and more money that they will take with them, they will set up a mini extremist Shia Hezbollah "state within a state". And given the weak state of the Lebanese army and central government, there will be no way that it can stop this from happening.
It actually kind of make sense for them to end up in South Lebanon. It will almost be a homecoming for them. After all, many of the top members of IRI's mafia came from there to begin with.
dm....good analysis....
by shushtari on Fri Jan 15, 2010 08:09 AM PSTbut you must give shah A LOT OF CREIDT....
he chose not to slaughter these animals that are destroying iran. he could have very easily stayed and unleashed the imperial army on the mullahs and vultures like yazdi, khamenei, rafsanjani, etc.
generals like oveissi, rahimi, khosrowdad, neshat, and badrei would have stayed loyal to the very end, and killed as many akhoonds as they could.
but the shah chose to show mercy and not to spill blood- he left and was treated horribly but everyone except saddat, who was a great man in his own right.
one could argue whether the mullahs and their felestini thugs should have been exterminated or not, but the shah's mercy allowed them to turn iran into the mess it is today, with millions of exiled iranians, addicts, prostitution, billions stolen by the akhoonds, etc.
either way, iran will be free very soon, MARK MY WORDS
Dear Mr. Gilani,
by DM on Fri Jan 15, 2010 04:30 AM PSTWell, I hope you're right. But I'm doubtful.
The stages of a revolution that you cite have more often than not been used to describe the stages of a novel or screenplay. That having been said, they're still a helpful framework for approaching the current situation. I just don't think we've reached the climax part of the story. There's been no general strikes, no real threat to the power of the Revolutionary Guard, etc. Calling these things is absurdly difficult, however--few people (certainly in the US at least) predicted the Shah's reign would end when it did, and conversely, there were many that thought the Shiite uprising in Iraq, following the first Iraq war, would spell the end of Saddam Hussein, or that the 1983 strikes and demonstrations in Chile would lead to the end of Pinochet's rule, or that the 1956 uprising in Hungary would mean the end of Soviet rule in that country, or...you get the idea. Either of us could be wrong--maybe we're not witnessing a revolution at all--but here's hoping that your more optimistic view prevails.
Thanks for weighing in,
DM
I beg to differ
by Mort Gilani on Thu Jan 14, 2010 08:07 PM PSTDear DM,
I don’t know what scales you are using to measure the speed of this revolution. The classic stages of a revolution are in the order of inciting incident, progressive complications, crisis, climax and resolution. If we step back to take a more comprehensive look at the economic and social conditions of Iran in 2009, we realize that IRR was amid a crisis before the election. The June 12 election put into motion the climax element of the story despite claims that the election was the primary cause for everything that has followed since.
Responding to
by DM on Thu Jan 14, 2010 03:27 PM PSTResponding to mahmoudg:
Predicting what happens next in Iran or any other country has left many experts looking foolish in retrospect, but since I already opened up that Pandora's box with my article, I'll go ahead and say I don't find your violent civil war scenario to be wholly implausible. Khamenei isn't going quietly into the good night, and even if he did, say dying prematurely of natural causes, the Revolutionary Guard would take his place. And they ain't going quietly either.
Having said that, I think the US bombing Iran at this point wouldn't shake the foundation of the IRI in the slightest. In the eighties, when Iraq attacked Iran, the eight years of war that followed allowed Khomeini to consolidate his power in a way that would not have been possible had the new govenment not been able to hide all their domestic policy failures behind the veil of a common enemy. Right now roughly ninety percent of Iranians support the development of nuclear power in Iran. We start bombing those nuclear sites and people are going to be pissed to hell. Most of the Green Movement supporters will be pissed to hell. Same goes for most of the readers on this website. (Not all, to be sure...) Now, we might do it anyway (I doubt it, and I doubt Israel even will given the cost-benefit equation), but if we do it sure won't spell the demise of the IRI. Far from it.
Finally, as a US citizen, I'm thinking our country already has plenty to worry about without getting into a third war. Not to say we can't help the opposition, but rather than bombing I think our energies would be better spent developing and disseminating technology that will allow the opposition to evade the IRI's Internet censors, so they can organize and plan more effectively.
Best, and with thanks for your comment,
DM
I beg to differ
by mahmoudg on Thu Jan 14, 2010 02:09 PM PSTI agree that this is a revolution and it will succeed, but i disagree that that it will end in anything other than a civil war. These murderers will fight the people street to street and kill millions before they are wiped out and only at that point by the interference of the US military. cause they have to open the oil supply lines. so it is best if they start their surgical attacks right now and shake the shakey foundation of this system, and the people will finish the rest.
Agreed, but
by Cost-of-Progress on Thu Jan 14, 2010 11:07 AM PSTThese perople are different than Shah was. They can shave that beard, put on a regular suit (with a tie I must add) and leave house like nothing has happened. They can then get on a plane for one of the islands purchased by each one of the band of reesh-o pashm. Most of these islands are soverign territories that do not belong to one nation - at least not publicly, so the parent nation can still pretend they're neutral and have normal relations with the new SECULAR regime.
In any way, I am all for them getting the hell out peacefully so the country can get on with rebuilding and reclaiming its rightful place in the world. Alas, we all know it is not that easy and these murderers will not go quietly into the night.
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IRAN BEFORE ISLAM
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Good Point
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Thu Jan 14, 2010 07:23 AM PSTYou have a good point. I am all for a dumping place for ex dictators. The truth is that the Hague is not a really inviting place for dictators. I and most likely many Iranians will gladly fork out 1000$ per year for 20 years if that would get the current dictators to leave Iran peacefully and allow a democratic regime to form. I will drop any request for prosecution. Just let Iran be free and get out without bloodshed. How about that
In the present situation Khamenei should move to Venezuela! If not there is Russia or China.
Here is the deal: go now and take a few million with you. Stay and join Mussolini.
Just read the original
by DM on Thu Jan 14, 2010 04:03 AM PSTJust read the original NYTimes review of El Otono del Patriarca ( //www.times.com/books/97/06/15/reviews/marque... )and will definitely put the novel on my list. And although I'm not much of a Disneyworld fan, if they ever decide to put together a crazy ex-dictator zoo, I'm there.
Dictator's asylum
by AgaPablo on Thu Jan 14, 2010 12:20 AM PSTI like Gabriel Garcia Marquez's idea on his novel "El Otoño del Patriarca" (pa'ize pedarsha) for a place where overthrown dictators would be dumped together and torment each other with their fancy dreams.
It could even be profitable should they be displayed like at the wax museum. So some place near Dineyworld could be O.K. just to take advantage of the tryp.....