Javad Yassari

For a while I believed...

I actually started blaming myself for not having had the insight to know what was going to happen based on your word!

Until I just saw this:

//iranian.com/main/comment/reply/71122/19...

Friends,

I think JJ has done a great job during the past 2 months.  The fact is
that NO ONE and I mean NO ONE outside or inside of Iran could predict
the events that have happened since the election.  In all fairness with
all his limitation JJ has done everything possible to keep the site
updated with heavy emphasis on Iran’s events.

Apparently people smarter than me weren't able to predict much either... 

I guess if I were a member of the boys club I could have said 4 more years and mix in some toilet humor , then I might have gotten respect from some of you folks.

best to all of you

IRANdokht

Dear Mr Yassari

Well written.

sepaas

Ebi aka Haaji

Kurush

You noted[What you are seeing is not the arrival of freedom liberty in Iran; rather, the inchoate, incipient stages of a full-blown civil war.]

How could you call this a civil war when only one side  is doing the killing? This is not a civil war, it is a massacre by plain cloth Basiji and Sepahi thugs. Give those brave youngsters same arms and watch the Basiji disappear in the gutters, where they belong.Do you recall how security forces opened up the garrisons to the public in 1979?

While you are at it, expose 5,000 Lebanese Hezbolahies who are clothed as anti riot police and see what those brave women and men will do to them. Ordinary people have been saving the injured policemen, after they themselves were beaten by them.

//www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/16/743009/-Ea...

It is an utter shame to call these people human. 

-YT

no special insight Rosie

Just honest support for hamvatans. As Javad said, with all the "political acumen", one would have assumed differently. Her hand has been played.

our hamvatans

deserved better than to roll over at the first word and give up. And it's almost insulting to see such a turn about now with all the public outcry and support. WHERE WERE YOU BEFORE! Who is answering to who, I wonder?

How the West could help Iranians now

I think the West  should immediately remove sanctions against Iran! That is the best way the Iranian people will be helped. That would give great support to those who want change in Iran. It will make their case very valid. Once the perceived threat of war is gone, the regime will have no leg to stand on for its persecutions and oppressions.

The West should also immediately ask for talks for the purpose of resolving animosity between Iran and and the West. These two actions will be a very effective blow to stupidity and ignorance and will remove the sources of oppression from the positions of power. 

NIAC war right, working on normalizing Iran-US relationship is the most effective way to help people in Iran. The excuse of "external threat against Islam or Iran" has been the strongest leg that the opressors have been standing on since the beginning. It is time this leg was taken from under them! 

What kind of special foresight was necessary to see this coming?

As.was.explained.to.me,.you.just.have.to.understand.

"the.Iranian.psyche."

Dear Mr Yassari

Thank you for your reply. I didn't see all the 150 comments on JJ's blog and did not know that you had predicted this.

As you said: 

I think unless they try to pull something stupid, like using those 2.6 million extra ballot sheets they just printed in the Ministry of Interior in Tehran, the winner is Mousavi.

I also thought that if the results were a couple of millions off, it'd be a proof of the election fraud. But the margin was a lot higher so I thought maybe it's my limited knowledge of the voter demographics because I have only seen the green voters in the video clips. 

Did AN not win the last election with a high margin too? How come there was no protest then? Did anyone predict that there wouldn't be an uprising then? I remember there was a lot of talk about fraud but nothing like we saw these past couple of days. I really want to know how I was supposed to know that this time the outcome of a landslide for AN would be different. 

To answer your question: No there was some protest but no blood was shed yet on Saturday morning.

IRANdokht

Assal

You are absolutely right. And this is exactly what the IRI is counting on. I'm sure we can agree that this is one time that western media CAN help.

Worry.

I worry about the media's short attention span more than anything; it's up to us to make sure the spotlight remains shining on these brave people. Email your congressmen, your governor, your assemblyman, your president, your senators, the local newspapers, the local tv news, national media outlets....don't stop emailing....if they see that the people are still talking about it, they will keep on reporting on it. Don't let them move on to the next big thing!

Dear Ms. IRANdokht

If my blog hurt your feelings I am sorry. With all due respect for you and your opinions, I'm so surprised by your comment.  What kind of special foresight was necessary to see this coming? And once the election results were announced, what kind of hindsight was necessary to see it? Even as the rigged results were being announced on Friday, people were already on the streets of Tehran.  Are you really telling me that you had no idea people would challenge and protest these results? Or are you telling me that even for the few hours before news of the unrest broke, you felt the election results were accurate?  For someone with your intelligence and political acumen, this is really surprising. 

You ask:  Did anyone expect an uprising then?  And I humbly paste here a part of a comment I wrote on JJ's blog on June 10th.  //iranian.com/main/blog/jahanshah-javid/here-... .  In no way do I consider myself a fortuneteller or a good political analyst. I think this was quite predictable and as such, the jubilation of some and acceptance of others have been baffling to me.

by Javad Yassari on Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:38 PM PDT

I think unless they try to pull something stupid, like using those 2.6
million extra ballot sheets they just printed in the Ministry of
Interior in Tehran, the winner is Mousavi. 

The young people in Tehran and big cities have already spent the
past week on the streets over night.  If Mousavi wins, on the day after
the elections there might be a huge nationwide party which will not sit
too well with Ahmadinejad supporters and basij.  If Ahmadinejad is
announced as the winner, there will be a huge protest gathering. 
Either way, there will be major unrest in Iran over the coming days
unless the Supreme Leader gets the message and lets the people's vote
stand, calling home his dogs.

Nothing fundamentally different will change in the overall scheme of
things, some tone changes and some minor reforms perhaps, but the young
nation of Iran would submit and stand by their message to the Supreme
Leader again--given half a chance, we will do the exact opposite of
what you tell us to do. 

....

Are our kids dying for a "color revolution"?

To hell with Ahmadinejad but this is starting to look more and more like one of those American "color revolutions".

God damn all those, Iranian and non-Iranian, who are sacrificing our brothers, sisters, sons, daughters, for their despicable agendas. These young people--brave and legitimately angry--are being used.

All you folks who trusted in Mousavi will some day regret having given him benefit of the doubt.

It has been reported that when the Western Media moves onto...

....it's next diversion the Iranian Military and the Revolutionary Guard are planning a massive show of force by executing political dissidents....

they would make the Shah's SAVAK look like children in comparison

Well written Mr. Yassari

the heartwrenching photo may not be the only one by now.

The photo is heart breaking

The works of the men of god!

all sovereign governments

all sovereign governments defend themselves against sabotage. If you had done this in America in 2000 election they will send in the SWAT teams to surgically remove you from the scene (get the point?).
The Western thugs have been waiting for this chaotic situations in Iran for years. Now they can send saboteurs who will selectively attack government buildings and personalities. They will foment civil war just like they did in Iraq and bring down the proud Iranian Nation & humiliate them before the eyes of ther wolrd for having defied the West for 30 years. In order to bring chaos & disorder & anarchy in Iran, first the Western thugs did thier best to render the sovereign national government of Iran illegitimate. Now these young morons with highschool education are going to be the instruments of the West. What you are seeing is not the arrival of freedom & liberty in Iran; rather, the inchoate, incipient stages of a full-blown civil war. Happpy now?!! You can move back to Irn to live in the happy free la-la land the so-called reformers are going to bring to you. Just make sure you take your gun * ammo with you, cause you will need it in the Reformists's Utopia.
This act of treason against the national government of our dear homeland must be prosecuted with utmost decisiveness before it can take root & bear its poisonous fruits.

Reliable Iranian Source:

Reliable Iranian Source: Mohammad Asgari, official w/in Interior Min who leaked real vote count, has been killed

//www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/16/743009/-Ea....

If the claim that is being

If the claim that is being made is actually right, Then that makes BBC the only station to be taking such particular calls. Callers to the other station(S), were absolutely against people taking the verdict and going about their lives, and virtually everyone, from various parts of iran described vicious encounters by the security forces which makes me wonder what form of filtering did BBC employ in order to gather up such specific calls!

Nobody can ever predict the future, but based on previous experience and reasonable expectations, one could not have possibly thought that the thugs would be standing by and ignoring the protests.

a lot changed since saturday morning...

Dear Mr Yassari

I noticed a hint in your blog about the four more years blog that I wrote, so I felt compelled to write this comment. 

When I wrote the blog about the obvious changes in Iran's political scene due to the election, there was no street fights reported yet. As I also mentioned in the summary of my blog, I was confused about the facts and felt too far away to know what was going on and anything that was behind the scenes, nevermind the developments afterwards...

Did anyone expect an uprising then? Did anyone think they'd raid the student's rooms? All the results came out and they called AN the reelected president. Along with the disappointment that I was feeling, I also felt that we're faced with a done deal and the only silver lining in those clouds was the open political air in Iran that was caused by the election, the debates and the demonstrations. That's where "four more years but there's no going back" came from.

I know that after seeing the recent footage, hearing about the brutality of the riot police against the voters, all of us have become extremely emotional and rightfully so. 

you say:

When dialogue between a state and its citizens is closed down for 30 years, when fear reigns, and when people feel helpless with the direction their government is taking them, there comes a moment when no conventional negotiation method, no mediation, no threats, and not even bullets really work.

I didn't have the insight to know that's what's going to happen, maybe because I am ignorant of what a society does under oppression, maybe because I didn't know any other cases to compare the situation to... A lot of people who were calling BBC (which I was listening to at the time) suggested that after a few days everyone will accept the verdict and go home and continue living their lives. So I doubt that I was alone in that assumption which made me try to evaluate what the government would do faced with a high number of vocal and disappointed crowd... I envy everyone who can predict the future, yet again hindsight is 20/20

Sorry for the long comment.

IRANdokht

mashallah

well said !!!! i agree with you

Dear JJ

I am sorry but I had a hell of a time with the line breaks on this text today.  I spent too much time on it and finally gave up.  Could you please help me?  Thank you very much.