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Five Stages of LOSS of Power in Authoritarian Regimes
26-Feb-2011
Elizabeth Kubler-Ross introduced 5 famous stages of grief in 1969. It starts with “Denial” and ends with “Acceptance”. Although, her theory has been encountered with much criticism as to whether all people go through the entire stages orderly and universally, nonetheless it is still among the well-known theories of the grief and loss. Following the recent uprisings in the middle-east , I would like to extend this theory to the way that the dictatorships deal with revolutions. After all, loss of power for governments can be as tragic as someone confronts with their own terminal stages in real life. Especially, for the corrupted and despotic systems which for long have believed that the government is their unquestionable god-given entity.
This write up of course, is not a scholarly article by any means and I understand that human psychology cannot be simply generalized to collective political phenomena. The sequential process also may not be very accurate and universal but worth to mention. In any event, I tried to bring up some examples to support my idea:
1- Denial: authorities do not believe in what here and there are said about the unrests. The media controlled by the governments are responsible for denying any “disturbing” news. Seda va sima still broadcasts the usual boring programs and formal newscasts. Unsettling news becomes increasingly circulated by unofficial sources and demonstrations become more and more difficult to ignore. “Shahr dar amn o amaan ast...aasoodeh bekhaabid”. The authorities soon realize that the denial only makes them to look stupid! State of shock and disbelief turns to another stage:
2- Anger : the unrests grows to the extent that it could not be ignored any more. So, governments start to act violently. Sandis khoraan va chomaaghdaaraan beat and arrest and kill protesters. Governments realize that the threat is real, so they act to show their power. Supposedly, the unrests spread, because the violence only can provoke people more. Nedaa ha va Sohraab ha va Mokhtaariha start to emerge. In Libya people are massacred. Genocides take place. The governments realize that this cannot go on forever, as the repressive forces can turn their back and join the opposition. Or disarray can bring the country to her knees in the long run; So they start to test other options:
3- Bargaining: governments at the same time try to get a grip of the opposition groups and to understand how they can be bribed. Media may start to confuse people with faked news of coalitions and compromises. They also may try to find that they also have some common grounds with the aspirations of the people involved in the uprising. Koor khoondan!
4- Depression: as the protests mount and become uncontrollable, governments start to give up and realize that the loss may be imminent. They come to terms with the fact that they have to recognize the strength of the opposition and cope with it. They focus on strategy of exit. Start to announce that “ sedaaie enghelaabe shomaa ra shenidam, ei mellat!” powerful figures may start planning how to transfer the big money to abroad. Mullahs may do the same with an eye on their Swiss accounts; while thinking how hard can be saying goodbye to sweet religious power.
5- Acceptance: at this stage, regimes are collapsed. Mubaraks and Ben Alis are given up. Dictators leave the scenes and think how they may physically survive. The mass exodus of the governmental figures starts. Revolutions succeed.
I am not sure at the moment, which stage IRI is dealing with? But they don’t seem to deal with the first stage. Since hezbollahi fanatics believe that they are representative of Imam Zaman, I anticipate a long-bloody stage 2, and then an inevitable stage 5 to come..... but any stage is overdue.
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forgot military force
by Joe L. on Mon Feb 28, 2011 12:32 PM PSTtotally forgot that totalitarian regimes use military to fire on people. dictators do so and leave but totalitarians like china act differently. pro western dictators that feed from foreign military do the bargaining b/c they have no support base and its better for pro western military to take charge then something else. in iran that wont happen. neither the military CAN come out and kill the masses nor there would be bargaining going on. but iranians would love the bargaining part and be happy for a little while if that happens. i think! i see that a lot of conservative people still like the government while majority of taxi drivers, bus drivers, shop owners and factory workers absolutely hate them. iran confuses me a lot! as long as government thinks that they got support they wont change, which is dumb. hey 20% is still 20%, why not bring them in? i think its b/c they r dumb.
Bargaining
by persian westender on Mon Feb 28, 2011 08:01 AM PSTI think bargaining only happens when the regimes are desperate and when the supression by force does not go well.
In liberal governments of course, bargaining with opposition groups seems to be the main process to deal the crisis, other stages even may not exist.
Not in authoritarian regimes!. When the regim is supported by fanaticism, finding common ground for bargaining becomes harder. so if opposition is a "fetneh gar" and is labeled as enemy of imam zaman, bargaining is over...
OMG, this is hilarious, I am sorry Esfand jan.
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Feb 28, 2011 05:32 AM PSTI was not even thinking about Sargord. I am sorry. But Pirooz is not a bad word. It is early morning and I have not had enough coffee yet.
Stages
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon Feb 28, 2011 05:28 AM PSTI don't see the stages that clearly. For example the government is already doing:
But clearly they have not yet given up on holding on to power. The one thing I want to add is any post IR government must hold Swiss Government responsible for the money. If Swiss want to act like a safe house for criminal money then they should be treated as such.
Anahid jaan please! Anything but that rascal's last name!
by Esfand Aashena on Mon Feb 28, 2011 05:05 AM PSTEverything is sacred
Esfand jan, you are correct about bargaining
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Feb 28, 2011 05:03 AM PSTDear Esfand, you wrote:" They may have even wanted to cave in but as I've said before they may
be put in this situation by the people and are caught up in it.
"
Agreed. By the way, your new name is finding more significance with all these plans for Esfand for demonstrations. Perhaps if you change it to Esfand Pirooz, that will bring good luck for movement :).
Anahid jaan there have been bargaining with Reformers.
by Esfand Aashena on Mon Feb 28, 2011 04:57 AM PSTSince 2009 there have been several requests and rounds of negotiations with Mousavi and Karoubi. As you may notice since 25 Bahman Islamic Republic officlas talked about "despite guidance and being patient" in their speeches and Friday prayers and before that there were talks of behind the scene deals being cut. There are links on this very website and some articles and quotes by Mr. Bagherzadeh, I just don't feel like searching for them.
In one case Zahra Rahnavard said flat out that they'll not back down. The reason I've been supporting Mousavi and Karoubi since 2009 and wroting blogs in their support is because they've not back down. At least not yet. Once and if they back down they'll lose my support but for now the jury is out on them. They may have even wanted to cave in but as I've said before they may be put in this situation by the people and are caught up in it.
At the rate we're going I wouldn't be surprised Mousavi or Karoubi or both of them become at least nominees for next year's Noble Peace prize!
Everything is sacred
Thanks PW for your comment . Yes Esfand, least at stage 2
by Anahid Hojjati on Mon Feb 28, 2011 04:47 AM PSTThanks PW for your comment. You wrote:"As it is applied to the original theory,
there is no proof that these stages are orderly and sequential. May be
it is true also for reactions of the governments. "
I think that is true about governments too. As Esfand noted, I believe we are at least at stage 2. Remember that we don't know of all the bargaining that could be going on between IRI leaders and reformist leaders or if not now, it may have happened sometime between June 2009 and now.
I believe Islamic Republic is at stage 2.
by Esfand Aashena on Mon Feb 28, 2011 04:40 AM PSTI was there right after the election results and the street protests and street fightings that followed. For about a few days even though we would witness the riot police, the smokes, the broken stuff left behind from the night before, the traffic jams due to street protests and police stopping ordinary people from walking towards an area, there was not a peep out of media.
It wasn't until about week to 10 days later that they first start talking about businesses closing down and "rioters" making people lose money. Then once they completely beat the people into submission and you could see lines of police on both sides of streets for miles they start talking about the "sedition".
Now this year immediately after 25 Bahman the very next day in the Parliament starts pumping their fists! The rulers talk about punishments for the leaders of the "sedition" and they stage pro-Government rallies.
This tells me they're "angry" and no more in "denial"! It "angers" them much more (much much more) when these protests are being waged at the same time that the entire Middle East is rising up against dictatorships! Islamic Republic is now getting it from both sides, inside and outside!
Everything is sacred
Anahid
by persian westender on Sun Feb 27, 2011 11:47 PM PSTPlease note that there is no analogy here between a grieving person and the dictator regimes themselves, but there seem to be only a similarity between this stages (as proposed by Kubler-Ross) and the reactions that the governments show.
As it is applied to the original theory, there is no proof that these stages are orderly and sequential. May be it is true also for reactions of the governments.
I only have observed these reactions among the many governments which are dealing with crisis and revolutions. Each government may be unique in going through these stages or maybe even skip many of the steps.
cheers
Dear persian westender, thanks for a great blog
by Anahid Hojjati on Sun Feb 27, 2011 06:04 PM PSTI like extending the 5 stage grief model to dictatorships. However there are differences and one difference is why you write that you are not sure stage 1 is finished. While for regular people, stating their denials is easy like hearing a mother repeatedly say they cannot believe their kid is dead, and it gets to end of stage 1 and you hear it from the grieving person that their denial is over. With dictatorships, they are long past their denial stage but for propaganda measures, they keep broadcasting their denial. This should not confuse the matters for us. So when extending the grief model to dictatorships, we cannot look for normal language and signs that a grieving person would use to declare end of an stage.