انتخابات 24 اسفند سال گذشته به دیدگاه من آخرین نفس اندیشه “اصلاح طلبی” برای بقای در فضای سیاسی ایران بود. گرچه مطمئنم هنوز احزاب اصلاح طلب به فعالیت خانه موشی خود ادامه می دهند، اما برای من که از طرفداران جدی مشارکت در انتخابات هم بودم اصلاح طلبی امروز بیش از اینکه یک پدیده سیاسی باشد، یک پدیده تاریخی است. به عقیده من نقد واقعی جریان اصلاحات را با یک دیدگاه برون جنبشی از امروز می توان آغاز کرد.
تا کنون تمامی نقدهای اعمال شده بر جنبش اصلاحات نقد درون جنبشی و ضمن حرکتی ای بوده که نقد را برای پیشرفت و عدم تکرار اشتباهات گذشته ضروری می دانسته است اما امروز اصلاح طلبی نیز به دیدگاه من مانند خیلی دیگر از حرکت های دمکراسی خواهانه ایران به موزه سپرده شده است. گرچه این واقعیت تلخ است، اما راه گریزی از آن وجود دارد.
بخشی از دلایل شکست اصلاح طلبان را می توان در اشتباهات گذشته آنان بررسی کرد. در این میان طیف رادیکال اصلاح طلب طیف محافظه کارتر را به باج دادن به محافظه کاران و طیف محافظه کار اصلاح طلب طیف دیگر را به خروج از ارزش های انقلاب متهم می کند. گرچه در “شکستی” که امروز اصلاح طلبی با آن مواجه شده است هر دو گروه به اندازه ای مقصرند، این نکته نیز قابل توجه است که رسیدن به دمکراسی به مفهوم واقعی کلمه در چهارچوب اصلاحات پارلمانتاریستی احزاب داخلی اصلاح طلب ناممکن است.
امیدهایی که طرفداران این احزاب برای استقرار تدریجی دمکراسی در ایران دارند بیشتر حاصل یک “آرزو” ست تا “منطق.” به بیان دیگر شرایط قانون اساسی ایران اصلاحات پارلمانتاریستی را چه در شکل رادیکال و چه در هیئت کندروی محکوم به شکست میکند. اینجاست که متوجه می شویم اندیشه هایی از قبیل “انقلاب آرام” یا “نافرمانی مدنی” اگر چه شاید در نگاه اول ناممکن و دست نیافتنی به نظر می رسند، اما برای رسیدن دمکراسی که بخش بزرگی از طیف روشنفکرگرای اصلاح طلب با خواندن کتب فیلسوفان مدرن آرزوی آن را دارند لازم است.
در حقیقت اصلاح طلبی پارلمانتاریستی باید یا آرزوی خود برای رسیدن به حکومت دمکراتیک توسعه گرا را به سطل زباله انداخته با اسم فریبنده اصلاح طلبی در پی بازی های سیاسی برآید یا این واقعیت را که قانون اساسی ما قدرت نهادهای انتصابی را بر نهادهای انتخاباتی افزون تر قرار داده است بپذیرد. تازه در این صورت نیز اصلاح طلبان امروز یک گروه بدون اعتبار سیاسی محسوب می شوند. در حقیقت سرمایه سیاسی این گروه امروز بسیار اندک است و این گروه هم اعبتار خود را در نزد رهبری از دست داده و عمال خودخواسته یا ناخواسته آمریکا تلقی می شوند.
قبول کردن عدم کارآیی اصلاحات محدود به قانون اساسی و صندوق رای برای بخشی از گروههای سیاسی ما همانقدر اهمیت دارد که قبول کردن عدم امکان براندازی نظام جمهوری اسلامی برای گروه دیگری. اولین گام رسیدن به روشنفکری رئالیست روی آوردن به منطق چالش گراست. شخصا احساس می کنم بسیاری از فعالان سیاسی مفهوم “بن بست سیاسی” را درست ادراک نکرده اند و یا ادراک کرده و سعی می کنند خودشان را با دلایلی بچه گانه فریب دهند. تا روزی که عمق فاجعه را درک نکنیم طبیعتا آن را درمان نخواهیم کرد.
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I think those of us who
by AnonymousK (not verified) on Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:46 AM PDTI think those of us who outside of Iran and those inside of Iran have a problem of reconciling two different worlds and societies.
We in the West try to call for a Post-Modern society in a Pre-Modern (Ghroon Vostayee) world--given the fact that STONING and MAD-Dahi of the "Leader" are recurring features of Iran's society--
We are living in the 21st century and the Iranian society has the mentality of the 18th century...
Should we lower our standards and turn a blind eye on at the speed with which the world is moving forward and regress as a society even further into swamp of Medival mentality and traditions??? How did the Modern and post Modern world got here? Was it through gradual "Evolution"??? I think not.
... Remember the 100 year war between the Church and the State in Europe...Let's be honest with ourselves and look at historical percedances to get a clue in this mythical "gradual Evolution" process...
It's a painful to face the truth but the sooner we face it, the better.
Interesting quotes for your reading pleasure:
"A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves."-- Bertrand de Jouvenel
"Silence against tyranny equals complicity".
"The sin of silence when they should protest makes cowards of men.--
Abraham Lincoln
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.--
John F. Kennedy
"Those who profess to favor freedom, and yet depreciate agitation, are men who want rain without thunder and lightning."--
Frederick Douglass
//www.revolutionsolution.com/revq.html
M. Ram
by Abarmard on Sun Mar 30, 2008 09:23 AM PDTI have always said that we need to resolve our issues ourselves without the outside world. I am not sure about anything, but my guess is that many people in Iran would be happy with IR if the economy is good! If that's a true statement, then I wonder why. Where are we from a social point? What have we learned from the revolution?
I don't believe in to walking into unknown and findout what's in the basket for us, like the last revolution. I also have many artilces that talks about the road to democracy, check them out.
R.HD / Abarmard's entlightment
by M. Ram (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:50 PM PDTTo emphasize again this fact that Mr. Abarmard is not supposed to enlighten you on how the IRI can evolve into a democratic state because he belongs to a clique who only transfer IRI's messages on this site. He is a pour pawn, a simple devotee who has never told us and would never tell you how the process can develop. For further enlightenments, you may pose your question to his masterminds in Ghom or IRI's Information Ministry.
Where are you?
by HD (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 02:30 PM PDTMr. abarmard;
Where are you?
democracy is democracy which in a gist, means rule of people over people, where majority rules with the rights of minority fully respected and maintainedby the majority! So what is this "Iranians style" democracy you are talking about?
Individual civil rights are individual civil fundamental rights as human beings all over the world as mandated by the UN's universal declaration on Human rights.
maybe what you mean by "Iranian style" is that we should add a ghormehsabzi flavor to all the above ... LOL
Facts
by Reality (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 02:14 PM PDTOnly ruling mullahs, their cronies, their progeny (i.e. aghazadeh) and people with strings attached to them are doing well; not average ordinary folks who have to hold onto two or even three different jobs to be able to put the food on the table.
There is so much financial corruption going on among the ruling elite that nobody knows where most of those oil revenues end up.
In time they might crumble, yet they might not, America and the West can do a lot of constructive things to help precipitate mullahs' downfall, other than waging a war with unknown consequences, but since they do not know what/who will take mullahs'place, they are hesitant.
Khomeini didn't say HE is going to do jack.
by Anonymouse on Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:09 PM PDTHe said america isn't going to do jack shit. He knew he wasn't going to do jack. I don't want to entice america or the west to do anything in Iran like a war. Normal people will suffer on both sides. Bush was so stupid as to say "bring it on" when americans were being killed by the day. He later said he was sorry for making that comment. But it wasn't just one or two comment like that. It was plenty.
The point is when you see America and the west (sargozy) huff and puff about doing jack and ruining a country, look no futher than Iraq where by all accounts everyone is now calling it a disaster. The biggest mistake in american diplomacy. Wait till Bush leaves office and see how much more we're going to learn about what he did and how he did it.
Iraq was the good old days by the way when the Army was fresh and they were coming out of victory in lifeless Afghanistan. Now everyone wants to leave Iraq let alone start another war with Iran.
Iran's revenue and prosperity was and is always tied to oil and oil subsidizes 80% of Iranian economy. At $104 a barrel they are doing good for now. But mullahs are so stupid that they encouraged bigger population and now they're not going to be able to feed them or keep them in check. So in time they will crumble under their own weight. In their own time. America or the west can wait or they can sing abu atta.
You are confusing the Issues, Mr. Oazadi
by Mirza Mohammad-ibn Fukuyama (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 09:33 AM PDTMr. Oazadi:
I appreciate your efforts for expressing your opinion. But, you are confusing the issues.
Reform or eslaahaat has historical roots in Iran. The Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1908, and the Revolution of 1979 both wanted to reform the system, but both were highjacked by antireform forces. These were POPULAR REFORM MOVEMENTS.
These reforms movements were initiated by people. What we saw in Iran from 1997 up to now is GOVERNMENTAL REFORMS. That, reforms by a political group within the present political system. The two are not the same, which is why I believe you are confusing the issue.
But, even within the political reformist camp in Iran one has three groups, and you are mixing all of them together:
(1) Those whose only goal is to be part of the power hierarchy, with minimal true reformist tendencies. They belong to the Karroubi group.
(2) Those who are part of the power hierarchy and want to stay there. They are Rafsanjani and his supporters. They mostly want some economic reforms on the Chinese model, but not much of political reforms.
(3) Those whose only goal is to change the system gradually, because they believe sudden and drastic changes will lead to bloodshed.
A big majority of common people make up this group. A small part (not all) of Moshaarekat, Mojahedin-e Enghelaab, religious-nationalists, and university student groups are also part of this group.
Regarding the defeat of what you collectively call reformist group, I believe that you are wrong. Yes, they were defeated in 2005 when Ahmadinejad was elected. But, even then, if we add up the votes that all the above three groups got (Rafsanjani, Karroubi, Moein), they were a big majority. In the elections for City Councils in December 2006 - elections that are not controlled by the Guardian Council - the reformists and independents that are usually allied with the reformists receive 70% of the votes. Ahmadinejad's supporters got only 4%.
Even in the recent elections, the reformists could compete for only a third of the seats, not with their best known people, but with their second or 3rd choices. Despite this, they won roughly 50% of those seats, with some other fraction going to the independents.
To summarize: I believe that reformist political groups within the political hierarchy are weaker than they were a decade ago. But, they are making a come back. Whether they can change the system deeply enough is a totally different question.
But, the most important point is not to confuse the two that I described. Popular movement for reform is strong, as evidenced by the feminist movement, the labor movement, the university student movement, and even among some part of the Rouhaaniyat who believe that this system has not only not helped Islam, but in fact has hurt it badly and want to get out of it.
Besides, even if we agree that the entire reform movement, be it popular or by the political groups within the system, is dead as you claim, what alternatives Iran have? It seems to me that leaves only foreign intervention, which I and people like me totally oppose.
anonymouse, You are talking
by Turtle (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 08:50 AM PDTanonymouse, You are talking about invasion and war. That is only one option. Rest assured Americans have other painful means of coercion up their sleeves which they have not used yet.
Correction: Khomeini said America cannot do jack shit, not the West.
But since Khomeini said those famous words about 30 years ago, Iran has been in deep shit economically, much less politically. hasn't she? and this is in spite of the fact that mullahs have had full political and economical relationships with all of Europe except maybe for a few years right after the revolution. So I guess America can do plenty and has.
Turtle
by Anonymouse on Fri Mar 28, 2008 08:15 AM PDTThey said the same thing about Iraq. How is that working out? Western powers can say whatever they want, as Khomeini once said and proved, West can not do shit. I am no fan of Khomeini but he was right.
A word to the Wise
by Turtle (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 07:35 AM PDTWestern powers cannot wait 50-100 more years for the turtle-paced Iranian people to slowly catch up with the rest of the democratic world in order to reform their theocracy.
For them, the danger from that brutal regime which considers itself God's representative on Earth seems to be imminent. They have to deal with it sooner than later.
wanna to be enlightened
by HD (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 07:29 AM PDTMr. abarmard;
Could you please enlighten us as to what you mean by Iranian style democracy? is it the same as the oxymoron "Islamic democracy"? and by the same token, Islamic human rights?
Regards;
HD
In the long run
by Abarmard on Fri Mar 28, 2008 07:00 AM PDTدر اين ميان ايرانيان بيش از هرچيز به زمان احتياج دارند. شايد به همين دليل است كه دولتهای غربی می خواهند فشار را بر ايران زياد كنند كه مردم را از حوصله بندازند. با اين حال اين رژيم چه بخواهد يا نخواهد برای حفظ بقای خود بايد كه اصلاح شود، وگرنه به طور كل عوض خواهد شد.
Some of it not your fault.
by Anonymouse on Fri Mar 28, 2008 05:51 AM PDTSome of these terminologies are new to many of us. God damn Mullahs try to bullshit us about using new "farsi" terms for many things. Like nan-e keshi for Pizza or Yavar-e nazm for Mobser or bullshit like that. While many younger generations grow up like this and don't know how nan-e keshi sounds, we as those who have heard of Pizza can use it until the day this kind of bullshit goes away and we can call Pizza a Pizza.
So you can use easier terms, speciallly in this website where so many's heads' smells Ghormeh sabzi. Look right below about facist and cult of human worship or other dahan por kon words. They are waiting to pounce on you for anything that resembles discussing change from within in Iran.
For Eslah-talab you can use dar-o daste Khatami, eslahtalab is not that bad you can use it as is, or even reformist in farsi. Reformist is not that bad, I think. However, for eslah-talab-e "chap" (left wing) you can use dar-or daste Dr. Moin or Khatami's brother or something like that. For Eslah-talab-e "rast" (right wing) you can use dar-o daste Karoubi. For eghtedar-gara you can use Hezbollahee. For moderates (not sure how they say it in farsi) you can say dar-o daste Rafsanjani or technocrats. Techno-cruts in farsi is ok too, I think. Like Aristocrat which can be used in Farsi.
As far as Ganji, he definately paid his dues to Iran and the cause of freedom and democracy. We followed him from when he was modeling for latest floral designs on pillow sheets at the time. Then he came to US and then it went downhill from there. At first he was giving long speeches. Then he started longer letters. Ahmadinejad was writing 10 page letters to Bush, so Ganji wrote 20 page letters. It is as if he was having a pissing contest with Ahmadi. So now I don't read his stuff anymore. Too long and boring. Like this comment I suppose :-)
Anyway, Ganji has broken the bridges behind him and like the Shah he is no longer a player. Too bad but I'm not that serious, it is good to still read and listen to him. He does have things to say. My final comment is to make things simple for people. and one question for you. I thought I read that some reformists were added to the list of candidates. They were few but they were still reformists. Did they get elected? if not, why not? People didn't vote for reformists? I'd imagine if they are on the ballot you'd vote for them, even if they are added at the last minute.
Omid Azadi
by Ahmad Zarnegar (not verified) on Fri Mar 28, 2008 02:16 AM PDTYou are a newcomer to this site and to America so you think you can shed a new light on the current discourse. Fine, keep deliberating but remember something: if you are critical of the cult of human worship (as you are by rediculing the Shah supporters) you must equally stop worshipping such characters as Ganji!! Otherwise, you are just a hypocrite. Ganji and his likes are aslo finished, They are used up and their function is done and over with. They have their hands in the establishment of the tyranny of the Islamic Republic and yet they are not repentent of what they did. They are proud as well. Perhaps you are too. In that case, your words are equal to hypocracy too. I don't mean to belittle you but if Ganji is regarded as "bozorgan" for you, you have to redefine the term "bozorgan"!
oozadi, this method you
by Farhad Kashani (not verified) on Thu Mar 27, 2008 05:57 PM PDToozadi, this method you promoting for does not work with a fascist, fundamentalist, Armageddon-anticipating regime. “Social conditions” would not , or it will very very gradually, weaken this regime. Unless you want to spend the next 50 years or so under the fascist regime in Tehran, the least we need to engage in is absolute social and civic disobedience.
ضمنا با بخش دوم
oazadiThu Mar 27, 2008 04:20 PM PDT
ضمنا با بخش دوم نوشته ات هم موافقم. شرایط اجتماعی نهایتا بخش اقتدارگرا را مجبور به کنارزدن قدرت می کنه
دوست
oazadiThu Mar 27, 2008 04:12 PM PDT
دوست عزیز
ناشناس عزیز
بحث دمکراسی خواهی یک بجث فرای جاوید شاه هست. من اصلا راغب نیستم راجع به شاه صحبت کنم چون دیگر شاهی وجود ندارد و خوب یا بد بودنش هم در سرنوشت ایران تاثیری ندارد. ترمینالژی من هم برای کسانی که مقالات بزرگانی چون گنجی را میخوانند چیزی جز یک تقلید ساده نیست. ضمنا ایرانیان خارج از کشور نسبت به وضعیت داخل ایران کور شده اند. آنها از موانع داخلی گذار به دمکراسی ناآگاهند و به همین دلیل آنالیز مناسبی از شرایط داخلی و پیچیدگی آن ندارند.
What parliament?, democracy?, election?, and What's your point?
by aaj sr (not verified) on Thu Mar 27, 2008 03:24 PM PDTThere is no major difference between "eslah talab" and "osool-gara", and we know the reasons why "osol-gara" did not get enough parliamentarians!!?? in the Majlis?
So what is your point?.
These type of arguments/commentaries relate to a true election, a meaningful democracy, election and finally, with elimination/absence of "velayate faghih" and existing constitution.
Therefore you should write about avenues how to topple down the regime by organizing general strike? civil disobedience? or take up arm, etc.
Hajiagha what do you thinks?
by Anonymouse on Thu Mar 27, 2008 01:53 PM PDTThis article is in farsi so please comment and mostafeez us.
Ghormeh sabzi
by Anonymouse on Thu Mar 27, 2008 01:52 PM PDTMany of the people in this website don't have the hoseleh to go through your terminology and new style of roshanfekree. They prefer the old smell of ghormeh sabzi where it is easier for them to just say Javid Shah with their fist in the air. They have done it for the past 30 year and will probably go to their graves whispering Javid Shah.
I think some of our mullahs or semi-mullas politicians in Iran may start looking for another business once inflation gets worse. Yes worse than this looks like. When inflation gets to 40% then they may start bringing reformists and blaming it on them. We shall see how the next general presidential elections in Iran goes and how our roshanfekr jamaat and the reformers act or react, since Ahmadi is such a polarizing figure. Especially after what he has done with the economy and the gasoline rationing and black market and now high price gasoline, as in high priced call girls in NY. You can't even get subsidized call girls anymore!
گل مولا صحت
FredThu Mar 27, 2008 01:51 PM PDT
گل مولا صحت خواب