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What will Israel do?
31-Jan-2008
Though the White House press release read "President Bush to travel to Middle East to follow up on progress made at Annapolis," his January trip actually centered on Iran, a country he did not visit.
America's friends -- the Persian Gulf monarchs as well as Israel -- fear that the publication of the recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) means the United States is weakening in its resolve to confront the rising threat from Iran. President Bush made his Middle East jaunt, in part, to assure them that that assessment was premature.
Since its appearance in December, the NIE has given pause to Israeli policy makers and provided succor for State Department analysts who believe the Bush administration is overestimating the case for Tehran's nuclear intentions. That is because the report implies that the threat from Iran has diminished. But in fact, a careful and close reading of the NIE does not warrant this interpretation. In the end, the report will only make it harder to address a growing threat to world peace.
Indeed, Americans might believe we no longer have to worry about Iran's nuclear program. In fact, the problem is worse because diplomacy may be more complicated, though not necessarily impossible. The most troubling prospect is that the United States and Israel are headed in opposite directions, which could lead to a severe strain in their relationship.
The NIE begins: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." That's nice, but it does not matter very much. As the NIE states, "We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so." The key word in that sentence is "eventually" because the most vital question is when Iran will be able to produce its first nuclear weapon. The NIE says nothing about how the reported halt of Iran's nuclear weapons program affects that date.
Despite the impression given by the wording in the NIE, Iran has by no means stopped its nuclear activities. In fact, Iran proudly shows off the progress it is making with its huge uranium-enrichment facilities. The Nobel Peace Prize-winning director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, has said that when those facilities are completed, Iran would need only "a few months" more to build a nuclear weapon. That estimate suggests that the hard part is enriching the uranium -- not making a bomb. In other words, the wording of the NIE is deceptive: building a bomb is relatively easy. Producing nuclear material is not.
That is why the 40-year effort to verify and enforce the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has been based on controlling the production of fissile material -- that is, enriched uranium or plutonium. NPT enforcement is based on safeguarding nuclear material, not only looking to see if a country is building a weapon. Iran does not need to have a weapons program -- that is, a bomb-design program -- until it is close to producing fissile material. After all, Iran does not need a sophisticated warhead such as the ones that go atop missiles. It could put a bulky, heavy nuclear device into a ship container or a truck -- similar to the truck Iran's proxies used to bomb the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983.
So what does the NIE say about when Iran will be able to make sufficient fissile material for a bomb? The old estimate, made in 2005, stated this was "unlikely before early-to-mid next decade." The new NIE says, "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU [highly enriched uranium] for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame." The only caveat is from the State Department's intelligence arm, which "judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013." How nice -- we may even have as long as five years. That is better than nothing, but it is not very good.
International Pressure, U.S. Engagement or Military Force?
The NIE argues that Iran can be persuaded through sticks and carrots: "We judge with high confidence that the halt [in Iran's nuclear weapons program] was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran's previously undeclared nuclear work."
Iran's decision to suspend its nuclear weapons program, in fact, came in the fall of 2003, after the British, French and German leaders bluntly told Iran: suspend your nuclear program or suffer the consequences. Their stand was unprecedented in its forcefulness for the usually mild Europeans. And, of course, they acted in the wake of what then looked like a successful U.S. invasion of Iraq. The lesson the NIE draws is that when Iran sees a united international community, it backs down.
"Our assessment that the [nuclear weapons] program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously," the NIE reads.
I think that is correct; a longtime theme of my work has been Iran's vulnerability to influence on the nuclear issue, so it would be comforting to think that the NIE is accurate in this regard. But honesty as an analyst compels me to report that the NIE provides little reason to come to this conclusion.
The alternative, more cynical interpretation from many of my Israeli friends is that Iran understood that suspending its nuclear weapons program would have no effect on its progress toward nuclear weapons, yet would reduce the risk that IAEA inspectors would discover Iran's true intentions. In other words, the NIE displays undue confidence that the U.S. intelligence community knows not just what happened but the reasons why.
That over-confidence fits a pattern. The sad reality is that the U.S. intelligence community's track record on Iran suggests that its knowledge has been not much better than it was about Iraq or North Korea. As the new NIE points out, the 2005 estimate assessed "with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons," whereas the new estimate is that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in fall 2003 -- well before the 2005 estimate came out.
Since the intelligence community has now decided it was wrong in 2005, one might think that U.S. intelligence agencies would be more cautious about what they now purport to know. It is possible that the new information is the last word on the subject, but it is vital to remember that deciding whether or not Iran is "determined" is a matter of interpretation, not just information.
According to the NIE, Iran did in fact have a covert nuclear weapons program up until 2003. If that information is correct, then Iran has been in complete violation of its obligations under the NPT, both by having a program until 2003 and then not reporting it up through the present day. Only full disclosure can provide confidence that Iran will not restart the program.
What if Iran gets to the brink of a bomb?
If Iran gets to the brink of a bomb, then there will be a vigorous debate about what to do. The two obvious alternatives are: stop Iran's nuclear program by force or live with it by deterring it. Military force is always a terrible choice, so we need to carefully consider whether there is a better alternative. Deterrence sounds attractive; after all, it worked during the Cold War.
But deterrence is not a simple policy. Even during the Cold War, it meant accepting great risks, as evident from the Cuban missile crisis. And deterring a nuclear Iran is likely to prove much more difficult than deterrence was during the Cold War for a host of reasons:
* The Cold War required committing hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of billions of dollars a year for decades. The international community may not have the political will to assemble a broad coalition of states ready to commit forces to deter a nuclear Iran or the staying power to maintain such a military coalition over a period of decades.
* The Cold War saw mid-size powers like Germany and Italy reluctantly accept protection from the superpowers rather than build their own nuclear weapons. It will be no small challenge to deter the dozens of other potential proliferators who may conclude from Iran's experience that there is little price to be paid for violating the NPT or withdrawing from it. Since Iran's clandestine nuclear activities were brought to light, nine Middle East countries have announced they are rethinking their nuclear options.
* The Middle East security environment is much more complicated than the straightforward East-West Cold War. The Iran-Iraq war killed a half million people, at least 10 times more than have died in all Israeli-Arab fighting. Introduce nuclear weapons into this messy situation, and many more may die.
* The Soviet Union more or less lived up to agreements it made. The Islamic Republic of Iran has a long history of dissimulation. Iran may be tempted to try covert, deniable nuclear weapons delivery -- for instance, by terrorist groups -- which the United States would have difficulty attributing to it.
* For all its faults, the Soviet Union was a tightly run ship. Iran's regime is dotted with factions that seem to pay little attention to any central authority. What's worse, the Revolutionary Guards, the same radical elements that provide support to terrorists, control aspects of the nuclear program. To say that there are potential command-and-control problems is an understatement.
* The Soviet communist system wanted to rule the world. In Islamic Iran, some radical elements appear to be willing to destroy the world. They are so highly confident God is on their side that they are ready to risk bringing on the apocalypse.
What Will Israel Do?
If the United States decides to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, Israel may not accede. For the United States, Iranian nuclear capability is a big problem but by no means an existential threat. By contrast, Israel has to worry that Iran will supplement the hundreds of millions of dollars it spends each year to arm those fighting to wipe Israel off the map (Hamas and Hezbollah) with nuclear threats aimed at the same purpose.
If Israel decides to use force on its own, that would have many disadvantages for U.S. interests. An Israeli strike would convert a global issue about Iran's failure to comply with its obligations under international treaties into an Iranian-Israeli dispute, where many around the world would automatically take sides against Israel.
An Israeli strike could engender such international criticism that Iran would be confident it can rebuild without fearing international disapproval, much less a second round of strikes. Many around the world would assume that Washington gave Israel permission, if not assistance, so the United States would face much the same reaction as if it had carried out a raid itself. That could mean vicious Iranian responses against U.S. interests.
If Israel acts against the wishes of the United States, the worst of all situations would be created if it does the job poorly. In such a case, the threat from Iran's nuclear program would be magnified, and the U.S.-Israel alliance would be damaged. Unfortunately, this case is distinctly possible. This makes it all the more urgent that we reinforce diplomacy with tough sanctions and close international coordination at the highest levels to maximize the chances, admittedly fading, that Iran agrees to a compromise.
Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is the author of several books on Iran. �
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Plague of Zionism cannot be
by Wondering (not verified) on Tue Feb 05, 2008 10:17 AM PSTPlague of Zionism cannot be erased with bombing Israel or killing the Zionists. Racism hidden under any fancy name, hatred and paranoia hidden any fancy name cannot be erased by wars or more hatred. Somebody has to be better than such low-life's. Otherwise we're stuck in a vicious circle. They are doing what Nazis did to them. We shouldn't do what they now do. I say IRI or anybody else will be successful by setting a better example, and not by doing what they do.
IRAN THE BLESSED, IRAN THE POWERFUL
by LOVE MAKER (not verified) on Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:14 PM PSTLOOKING FORWARD TO THE DAY WHEN IRAN WILL INSERT A NUCLEAR MISSILE IN THE SMELLY ASS OF EVERY ZIONIST AND ZIONIST BACKER. IRANIANS OF ALL FAITHS WILL REJOICE ON THAT FATEFUL DAY, JOINED BY PEOPLE ALL OVER THE GLOBE, AS THE PLAGUE OF ZIONISM WILL BE ABOLISHED FOREVER, GOD WILLING.
wake up iranian
by Farhad2008 (not verified) on Mon Feb 04, 2008 12:58 PM PSThello partic. This is what im trying to say in months here in this magazine, thanks for waking up irnaian from being sleepy..Israel wont accept a necular iran with mullah / without mullah.. Its about Iran, its position in the area and how iranians mentality is, not the regime.
They are the anti-Christ
by mama (not verified) on Sun Feb 03, 2008 02:23 PM PSTWho said that our problems are because of Jews or Turks? When did I ever say that?
The anti-Christ Jew in Israel wants to bomb my country. I look at the pictures of my mother and innocent pictures of my nieces and nephews and I start to cry. They say if somebody wants to put a bomb in your mother’s house, put a bomb in his mother’s house first. If the little weakling Jew attacks Iran, they will burn so hard that Hitler ovens will be child play in comparison.
The monster Jew is the anti-Christ. It hates humanity. It wants to kill everybody. Look at Jews in general. They kill and maim anybody around them. But if you say anything they cry anti-Semitism. I say the less Semitic people (Arabs and the blood sucker Jew) in this world, the better humanity will be.
Don’t shake hand with the monster, don’t associate with them, start anonymous mailing (similar to the political mails) to warn the people in your neighborhood of the anti-Christ among us.
Don’t let the monster Jew get away with murder under the cover of anti-Semitism.
Mama at least you have the courage
by Bijanam (not verified) on Sun Feb 03, 2008 07:45 AM PSTEven under the shield of anonymity you speak your true mind and feelings which is representative of millions of other Muslims. You are not an intellectual, but you by far have more integrity than those who claim to be intellectuals and hide or wrap their sentiments in some mumbo jumbo debate over Zionism, apartheid, state of Israel, etc…
Yes, the likes of Daryush, yahya, Q, concerned, choob dosar gohi,….
They claim rationality and intellect and criticize any talk of attack on IRI or Iran. They can concoct all kinds of justification for any action at any price that IRI might take to defend the citizens of Iran against even a remote threat of attack. But, when it comes to clear declaration of destruction of a Jewish state and annihilation of its citizen, these same so-called intellectuals demonize any action taken to avert such threats or defend the lives of its citizens.
Shame on you and on your bigotry to human race….
Israel is not at the top of
by Wondering (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 11:52 PM PSTIsrael is not at the top of the food chain of the imperialism. It will never be able to do anything serious that the top dog does not approve. If they do their Jewish ass will be in serious trouble. Israel is not an independent state. It was established by the West and it cannot survive without heavy support of the West. So it is practically impossible for Israel to take any action without first receiving permission from the West.
These people live in a paranoid fear that if they lose the support of the West, the world will swallow them. So they are slaves to their own fears.
To Lebabon
by Yahya (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 08:44 PM PSTDear Lebanon,
Even if all what you said is correct, and that is big IF, nothing would change about what I wrote. My comments were NOT about Irael-Lebanon war. The examples I gave from Israeli barbarism in that war just serve as evidences of Israel's state-planned terror campaign against the people of Lebanon.
If you think that Israel is justified in such savage destruction of Lebanon and in killing so many civilians, then I have nothing more to say. If, on the other hand, you can hold Israel accountable to its own alleged standards of democracy and human rights, then read my comments carefully again with the following in mind:
The crux of my comments, which you seem to have chosen to ignore, were two simple fact:
1. Israel itself is a state with a long record of utter disregard for human life and with a heavy record of war crimes in various stages of its life so far. As such, it has no right, whatsoever, to attack any other country. Just like the U.S. did not have the right to attack Iraq.
2. Any political "expert" or "analyst," such as Mr Clawson or anybody else, who puts his intellect and talent and abilities into justifying a possible future attack by Irael on Iran shares the responsibility of all the innocent blood that would be undoubtedly shed if such attacks take place. His article is in fact nothing but justifying a possible future attack on Iran under the political disguise of "lets hope the U.S. can resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy or else Israel would have 'no choice' but attacking Iran." This line of argument has been around for a while and serves nothing but preparing the stage for an Israeli attack.
These are the core of my comments.
One wonders why a country like Israel, which adevertizes itself as "the only democracy" in the Middle East, and has accumulated the most deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, and has the full military, political, technological, security, financial, and public relations (propaganda) support of the world' only superpower, is also one of the cruelest kiiling machines in our world. It has a long, well documented, and internationally condemened, record of mass murder not only in the Lebanese conflict of 2006, but also in a series of wars and conflicts in the Middle East.
Israel is the only country in the world which carries out civilian killings and massacres and civilian infrastructure destruction as official state policy. Lt. General Dan Halut's statement, among many others, and Israeli army's actions in the field provide the best testimony to this fact. Other countries in the world do the same, but they never admit it. Israel is the only country which kills civilians and executes acts of collective punishment in areas under its occupation and is proud of it too. It leaves no room to have any sympathy for it.
Throughout my years from childhood to adulthood, I have seen and heard the news of tens of thousands of Palestinians being killed, wounded, imprisoned, their properties confisctaed in Israeli Kangoroo courts, their children orphaned, humiliated, raised in refugee camps for three generations, and countless other painful crimes. These are hard facts. It would take months if not years to just gather all the existing references and reported news on these crimes against humanity committed by the state of Israel. There is nothing anybody can say, write, or do to change that.
So, stop defending Israeli actions. They are indefensible. Israel, if it wants to survive and live peacefully among the civilized nations of the world, must really think hard and depart from its stained past. I hope it finds the will and the strenghth to do that and allow the whole world to learn from and enjoy the deep well of wisdom and goodness which sits deep in the Jewish psyche and has been tarnished by this awful 60-something-year experiment called Israel.
Mama you are Yoaps
by Anonymouskalimi (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 03:42 PM PSTI am sorry Mama but your story makes no sense. Please try again with your story Mama. It is obvious that the plight of your Naneh and her refusal to give up on her Sigheh profession has gotten to you.
You are making no sense boy. Relax, take a deep breath and give it another try. Also, try being a little more creative.
A story
by mama (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 03:15 PM PSTOne day a Juoad was drowning. The rescue people were trying to help the penny-pincher. The rescue people were shouting at the ugly savage, give me your hand, give me your hand. And the beast was refusing. One clever rescue person shouted, take my hand. And the dirty Jew was rescued.
The moral of the story is that these blood suckers must be put in their place. Every few decades somebody has to do it. Any where that these dirt Jews go war and destruction follows. They are cursed and Satanic.
Shame!
by Farhod (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 09:46 AM PSTMama,
I feel ashamed of being an Iranian when I hear such anti Semitic comments. The problem is not our fellow Jewish Iranians or Israelis. We should stop blaming others for our problems. One day it’s the Turks, one day it’s the Arabs… Let's look into the mirror first.
Farhad
Mama- We changed our mind About Helping your Naneh
by AnonymousKalimi (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 09:29 AM PSTMama, I just got out of the Synagogue. One of the members of the Elders of Zion and I had a conversation.
He said "so what that they saved our asses 2500 years ago? We saved their asses 20 years ago when we agreed to sell missiles to their Imam Khomeini during the Iran /Iraq war. We also saved their asses when they failed to destroy Saddam's nuclear reactor. Our pilots had to risk their lives for these sinehzan hayeh madarjendeh so Saddam could not get his hands on nukes. Now they are threatening us again and its better to let Mama's Naneh be stuck with the Akhoonds. The Sigeh business will get better because Ahmadinejad has allowed for the importation of Viagra in to the IRI"
Sorry Mama, but the Elders of Zion were correct. I have to agree with them that us Kalimis have saved your sorry Shia, arab loving, asses as well. No can do. You Naneh will stay in Iran and if the EU and US decide to attack (maybe we will even help them this time), she has to face the consequences.
Mama I spoke with your Naneh Last Night
by AnonymousKalimi (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 08:37 AM PSTShe told me that the Sigheh business was no longer profitable and that she wants to join you in America. She said she is to old and the Akhoonds make her enter into at least 3 sigheh contracts a day. The sigheh husbands alway eat some Kaloh Pacheh before they pay their visit to your naneh and she does not like the smell. Not fun. I will
call AIPAC first thing Monday. They are closed today because of the Sabbath. I will see if AIPAC has any "Liberate the Irooni with Sigeh Background" program.
Because you Persians saved us Kalimis 2500 years ago, I feel that the least we Kalimis can do is save your Naneh. It does not matter that you have sold your persian principles and culture to the Arabs and that your akhoonds love Arabs more than persians. As Kalimis, we love persians more than the akhoonds.
Little Jews
by mama (not verified) on Sat Feb 02, 2008 06:25 AM PSTJews are a bunch of losers. Look at their history. Everybody f***ed them. People used to stand on line lol.
Iranians saved the in-breading Jews a couple of times from total destruction. But since Jews are descended from Satan (just look at their noses, it is modeled after Satan), instead of appreciating Iranians they hate them.
Nobody should be afraid of these little Semitic garbage people. I’m sick and tired of being PC
Isreal could not handle Hezbollah. How can they .... ???
by Ahmad Bahai (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 08:45 PM PSTThe zionist blood suckers could not handle a small army of only few hundreds to perhaps few thousands of determined Hezbollah fighters who were equipped by Iranians in the summer 2006. How can these blood suckers face a war with mighty iran which probably will be a war of attrition and will eventually destory them (as it is doing to USA in Iraq)?
A/B
To Yahya Re: Lebanon
by Lebanon (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 08:09 PM PSTDear Yahyah,
You leave out crucial facts regarding the 06 Lebanon war to make your point. If you want to make a point that sticks and has any meaning the arguments have to be fair and you got to include the whole story- not just the part that promotes your weak argument.
Israel held a buffer zone from 1982 to 2000 after it kicked the PLO out. Israel unilaterally decided to withdraw from the buffer zone (certified by the UN) after it saw that the price of confronting Hezbollah was not worth on holding to the zone. Before the withdrawal, however, for many years, it had asked for UN/Lebanese Army presence in the area to insure that no more attacks were conducted from the territory on Israel once Israel withdrew from the territory (the first Lebanon war started as a result of Palestinian attacks on Israeli territory- Israel under Begin and Sharon were looking for an excuse to get rid of the PLO from Lebanon and they got their break in 82 finally).
Israel withdrew in 2000 however, without the help of the UN and the Lebanese government and Hezbollah succeeded in liberating the land. Hezbollah comes in and takes control of the entire South. Additionally, Hezbollah, refused to acknowledge full Israeli withdrawal (remember, the UN certified the withdrawal) claiming that Sheba Farms (a few acres of land), belonged to Lebanon and therefore Hezbollah was still trying to liberate Lebanese territory. The problem was that Israel claimed that it had captured Sheba farms from Syria in 1967 and Syria refused to acknowledge that Sheba was Lebanese territory. This was all a ploy. How could Hezbollah, who gets support from the Syrians claim that Sheba is Lebanese, but the Syrians refused to agree that its Lebanese (by the way I think the Syrians have now, after the fact given up on the Sheba farms)? Hezbollah, used this as a pretext to occupy the area and lunch raids against Israel. During the 6 years after the Israeli withdrawal, the Iranians and the Syrians armed Hezbollah to the teeth. Rockets and the latest in Iranian (North Korean) missile technology was given to the Hezbollah. Hezbollah sucssefully captured 3 Israeli soldiers (dead) after a raid in 2004 (sheik Obeyed was released for the 3 soldiers- sheik obeyed was captured as a negotiating chip on Ron Arad- Hezbollah was supposed to give info on Arad in an earlier deal but breached the Agreement).
In 2006, prior to the Lebanese war, Israel also withdrew from the Gaza Strip. You have Kassams landing in Israel ever since (although I agree with Israel’s Decision to withdraw from Gaza- it was the right move)
Additionally, you left out:
1) The 30 year Syrian occupation of Lebanon.
2) Syrian attempts to destroy the Lebanese democracy by multiple murders of its leaders (just a month ago one more Lebanese parliament member was assassinated- Hezbollah blamed Israel)
3) Hezbollah’s stance against Syrian withdrawal (why?) (Hmmmm).
In 2006, the war irrupted because, Hezbollah, wanting to free a murderer terrorist, captured 2 more solders and killed 8 more in the process. During the raid to capture these soldiers, Hezbollah, as a diversionary tactic, fired missiles into Israeli towns.
Lebanon can not have it both ways. It can not have the “Democracy” and have Hezbollah do whatever it wants at will in its territory. Israel withdrew from Lebanese territory. What should it do, just sit there and do nothing when its soldiers are kidnapped and its towns are fired at with rockets?
Israel withdrew from Gaza and Rockets were coming. Israel withdrew from Lebanon, rockets were coming. Why? Who was behind this? Both Hezbollah and Hamas are funded and supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Any move Israel makes to diffuse a situation (withdrawal from Lebanon, withdrawal from Gaza) unfortunately backfires because of an invisible instigator called the Islamic Republic of Iran). All of this with Syrian backing of course.
The attitude in the Arab world, as a result of Israeli withdrawals and with Iran's support of groups like Hezbollah, resist Israel and they finally will be destroyed. This was the perfect example- Look they left Gaza but we will not stop until every inch is liberated. Israel has the duty to defend its borders. Israel has to also make it clear that its withdrawal from Gaza or Lebanon is not a sign of weakness. Israel has to send a message to the Iranians/Syrians that your adventures next to our borders will have consequences. Accordingly, you have every bridge destroyed in Lebanon (mind you that the Hezbollah was using the Lebanese infrastructure (the bridges) to transport weapons and supplies during the conflict). Since the Lebanese army refused to occupy the territory, since the UN refused to bring in troops to watch over the area, Israel had no choice but to respond in the way it did. Now have your read the news articles from regarding the initial Arab reaction:
Go read this and read the NY tim article at the end of this article:
//www.nysun.com/article/36373
Do you see how the Arab world viewed this. Yes they were later appauled by the destruction but they were happy that Hezbollah was hit because they see Hezbollah as Iranian influence and they don't like it.
This war was just a mini war. There is potentially a bigger one coming. This was just practice. The Major Arab countries do not want this future war and Israel does not want it either. Its all up to the Iranians and Syrians right now.
The Arabs
Militia Rebuked by Some Arab Countries
Article Tools Sponsored By
By HASSAN M. FATTAH
Published: July 17, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 16 — With the battle between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah raging, key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming Hezbollah, underscoring in part their growing fear of influence by the group’s main
Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts” at an emergency Arab League summit meeting in Cairo on Saturday.
The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel, “These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we cannot simply accept them.” Prince Faisal spoke at the closed-door meeting but his words were reported to journalists by other delegates.
The meeting ended with participants asserting that the Middle East peace process had failed and requesting help from the United Nations Security Council.
It is nearly unheard of for Arab officials to chastise an Arab group engaged in conflict with Israel, especially as images of destruction by Israeli warplanes are beamed into Arab living rooms. Normally under such circumstances, Arabs are not blamed, and condemnations of Israel are routine.
But the willingness of those governments to defy public opinion in their own countries underscores a shift that is prompted by the growing influence of Iran and Shiite Muslims in Iraq and across the region.
The way some officials see it, Arab analysts said, Israel is the devil they know, but Iran is the growing threat.
“There is a school of thought, led by Saudi Arabia, that believes that Hezbollah is a source of trouble, a protégé of Iran, but also a political instrument in the hands of Iran,” said Adnan Abu Odeh, a Jordanian sociologist. ‘This school says we should not play into the hands of Iran, which has its own agenda, by sympathizing or supporting Hezbollah fighting against the Israelis.”
Hanna Seniora, a Palestinian analyst with the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information, lauded the Arab opposition to Hezbollah on Sunday.
“For the first time ever, open criticism was heard from countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan against the unilateral actions carried out by radical organizations, especially Hezbollah of Lebanon,” wrote Mr. Seniora, who favors coexistence with Israel and opposes radical Islam. “It became clear and beyond doubt that the most important Arab countries did not allow their emotions to rule their judgment.”
The willingness of the leading governments to openly defy Arab public opinion, which has raged against Israel’s actions in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, underscores the readjustment of risks Arab governments say they face.
It also reflects pressure from Washington on its Arab allies to stand against Hezbollah’s actions, American officials said. At the Group of 8 summit meeting in Russia, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice noted with approval that a number of Arab countries had criticized Hezbollah.
That criticism could pressure Hezbollah to give up its weapons. It could also help American efforts to contain Iran.
“Who’s benefiting?” asked a senior official of one of the Arab countries critical of Hezbollah who was granted anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “Definitely not the Arabs or the peace process. But definitely the Iranians are.”
There may be no material proof of Iran’s involvement in the conflict, the senior official added, but all indications point to an Iranian role.
Arab leaders have long been wary fof Iran. But with Iran exercising increased influence in Iraq and stirring the emotions of Arab and Muslim masses frustrated about the occupation of Iraq, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and America’s role in the region, fear of Iranian influence has increased.
“You have Hezbollah, a Shiite minority, controlled by Iran, working, and the Iranians are embarrassing the hell out of the Arab governments,” said Riad Kahwaji, managing director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai. “The peace process has collapsed, the Palestinians are being killed and nothing is being done for them. And here comes Hezbollah, which is actually scoring hits against Israel.”
From its start in 1982, Hezbollah has relied on Iranian support and weapons, and logistical support from Syria. Iran has made no secret of its support for Hezbollah, and in recent months boasted to visiting scholars about providing it with missiles.
Israel has accused Iran of providing Hezbollah with sophisticated weaponry and said Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard has trained guerrillas in Lebanon. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hamidreza Assefi, brushed aside the accusations on Sunday. Mr. Assefi denied that Iran had trained guerrillas in Lebanon, and added: “It is not true that we have sent missiles. Hezbollah is capable enough. The Zionist regime is under pressure.”
A number of Lebanese have also publicly complained about Hezbollah, saying its attack on Israeli soldiers last Wednesday was carried out unilaterally and has drawn the country into a conflict it did not seek.
At the Arab summit meeting on Saturday, Syria’s foreign minister, Walid Moallem, lashed back at the critics of Hezbollah, The Associated Press reported, demanding, “How can we come here to discuss the burning situation in Lebanon while others are making statements criticizing the resistance?”
The countries supporting Syria included Yemen, Algeria and Lebanon.
In a speech broadcast on Sunday, Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, derided the Arab criticism. “It is clear that they are unable as governments and leaders to do anything,” he said. “The people of the Arab and Islamic world face a historic chance to achieve a historic victory against the Zionist enemy.”
Some in Beirut said they were deeply disappointed in their fellow Arabs. “I am ashamed of the Arabs,” said Omar Ajaq, who with his family escaped the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs to a shelter in central Beirut. “They are utterly useless. People are now betting on the resistance. We no longer have faith in Arab leaders.”
Reporting for this article was contributed by Nazila Fathi from Tehran, Suha Maayeh fromAmman, Jordan, Mona el-Naggar fromCairo and David E. Sanger fromVermont.
Samad-Agha or Yahya?
by MargbarIRI (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 07:18 PM PSTLets do the vote. I'd rather do that than read the hypocritical selective memories of people like Yahya. Again, intellectual dishonesty in defense of the IRI.
Turning the clock back....
by Yahya (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 07:10 PM PSTOn July 11, 2006, at the beginning of a war imposed by Israel over Lebanon under the excuse of freeing two Israeli soldiers captured by Hezbollah, the Israeli Army's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz, told Israel's Channel 10, "If the soldiers are not returned, we will turn Lebanon's clock back 20 years."
"//www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/index.html
Turning the clock back they sure did. And they turned it back much more than 20 years. Perhaps 3000 years back to the times of barbarians who knew no other way than savage killing.
This was at the beginning of a massive and barbaric arial and ground bombing campaign by Israel, which left hundreds of women and children dead and thousands wounded and displaced. The billions of dollars of intentional planned damage to Lebanese infrastructure pale in comparison to the magnitude of war crimes committed by Israel.
Just to know how barbaric Israeli army and air force are, remember the Qana massacre, in which Israeli warplanes bombed a residential building in Qana killing all 54 civilians, mostly children and women, taking refuge in the basement. This pediatric bury-bombing was only one of the hundreds of murderous military accomplishments of Israel during the war in the summer of 2006. (In 1996, Qana was the scene for another episode of massacre of Lebanese women and cgildren when Israel bombed UN's UNIF camp killing 52 children and more than 100 women. See UN report here: //domino.un.org/UNISPAL.nsf/2ee9468747556b2d85256cf60060d2a6/c2a9efb804d4155685256e5a006d2c41!OpenDocument
And, if you think that the Israelis were sorry or regretful at all, listen to what Dan Gillerman, the Israeli Ambassador to the UN, said in his speech at the UN, broadcast on CSPAN on July 29, 2006, the day after the massacre under intense international condemnation of Israel: It was Hezbollah’s fault. We strongly suspect that they prevented the children from leaving the basement!!
By the way, this guy, Dan Gillerman, is a piece of work when it comes to justifying any sort of political and military crime. Check him out. You will learn about the evil side of man and you would be unpleasantly surprised.
Human Rights Watch later reported that Israel was widely using cluster bombs in Lebanon causing intentional large-scale killing and wounding of civilians. See the report here:
//blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/2006/0...
Now, these same people, criminals of the calibre of Lt. General Dan Halutz want to bomb Iran and Mr. Clawson is setting the stage for them with his so called analysis. Mr Clawson, by the way, works for The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a so called think tank founded by the former research director of the notorious American_Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC), the largest jewish lobby group in the U.S. with controlling influence over U.S. policy in the Middle East. Enough said.
My last word to Mr Clawson and pseudo-analysts like him, Iranian ones included, is that earning a living does not have to be through providing intellectual and analytical services to the killers of human beings. There are less bloody ways to feed your family.
Patrick Clawson
by Guz-Man (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 06:32 PM PSTMr. Patrick Clawson, please pull my finger...did you hear that? That's Israel's threat :)
thank you for your support
samad agha magase ane har Iruniye
by Samad_agha (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 06:05 PM PSTFilmi az khar magas. Leila ham baahaaleh, fek konam behtar az googooshe
//youtube.com/watch?v=dgMvFr4T12o
I think we should have a vote on Iranian.com as who is the hottest oldie singer and who is the hottest of all time.
Samad-Agha- At least you have a sense of Humor!
by MargbarIRI (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 05:44 PM PSTOK you can have googoosh. She is to old for me anyway. I take Leyla if you take googoosh though. Daryush will get behrooz vossoghi because he has no sense of humor.
Daryush
by MargbarIRI (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 05:39 PM PSTWhat are you talking about? Pro Iran? Where do you read that from? So if you do not support the IRI at any price, you are not pro Iran? Sir, Iran does not exist as a country. There is a country that is called "the Islamic Republic of Iran". That is a different entity than "Iran".
I love Iran. You however, will protect the IRI at any price. You do not realize the danger that the IRI is posing to the world. First, I am in no way for an attack against the IRI because innocent Iranians (including my family members) my be killed. If Iran goes nuclear, the likleyhood of innocent Iranians dying increases however. If you don't see that (because your cheshm is koor), then there is nothing I can do for you.
I was not having a disgusting dream, my previous post was in response to your comrad's stupid movie scenario. I just juiced it up for him I see that you have a good sense of humor to.
MargbarIRI
by Samad_agha (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 05:31 PM PSTHey, leave Googoosh for me. And I didn't like the bomb part.
"Kaash keh man ham Googoosh mikardam", filmi az Samad agha
Oh Boy
by Daryush on Fri Feb 01, 2008 05:25 PM PSTHey MargbarIRI, you just showed that you are not pro Iran. wow, what a disgusting
dream you're having! Not funny.
Samad-Agha
by MargbarIRI (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 05:15 PM PSTIn the Movie "Kaash Ken man ham Khaayeh dasshtam". Googoosh takes her clothes off for MargBarIRI, then Samd_Agha becomes so hasood (because viagra is not available in the IRI) that he threatens MargbarIRI with the typical Chesh Koor Mikoonom nonesense. MargBar IRI tells Samad_Agah: Aghe Khaayeh Dashti viagra lazem nadashti. Samad-Aga becomes so hasood that he goes to the local Komiteh building and files a formal complaint against MargBArIRI as a vatan fooroosh.
Right when the Komiteh, pasdar's and Basijis are about to enter the building, the American F16's drop multiple bombs around Tehran. The liberation of Iran begins and the real vatnforoosh people (Daryush, Xerxes, Farook2000, concerned, Mama, IranIrooni, Jamaleto, Anonymous-Zartoshti) are exposed and jailed by the new Iranian government. MargBarIRI
starts the first ever porn business in Iran and lives with Googoosh happily ever after.
MargbarIRI
by Samad_agha (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:56 PM PSTA movie that will rock the nation. "Kaash keh man ham khaayeh daashtam". Asari az Behruz e vosughi. Kaash keh man ham khaayeh daashtam. Vaghti keh vatan forushan hamleh beh khaake Iranzamin mikardand, yek mard baraye yeh khareji kunash ra ghonbol mikonad. Kashki keh man ham khaayeh daashtam. Baa sherkate MargbarIRI dar naghshe yeh Iraniyeh vatan forush. Kaash keh man ham khaayeh daashtam. Coming soon to the theater near you!!
And that's why we care
by Mashty (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:47 PM PSTWe are a nation that has defined the declaration of human rights by Cyrus the Great 2500 years ago. That's the connection between us and the Palestinians, who had joined the war against the Iranians with Saddam. But we are Pahlevan nation and humble to the fortunes that life brings to us as a gift. If we have a chance to stand, we will. Yaa hoo. Irani harf na-daa-reh. Be salamaty
Daryush The Great Judge of Character
by MargbarIRI (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:41 PM PSTDryush you have such great standards and values and you are a great judge of character. You were OK with all the none sense from this Mama character. In fact you even protected his views and comments. What a Hypocrite!
Rock on Craig. Good job in exposing these frauds. They are the ones who are vatanfroosh (they have sold their
country). They support the Mullah regime who have raped our country for 28 years. They fail to see the danger these turban heads pose to all the region and Europe. You mention anything and you are automatically a Jew AIPAC Zionist. Real bright.
Again, Than you Programmer Craig!
programmer craig
by Daryush on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:27 PM PSTI don't care to continue discussion with you. You have no respect and come across as arrogant.
You Guys
by Mashty (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:06 PM PSTThree things. No foreigner can save Iran. Israel is a threat to Iran not the other way around. Islamic Republic is an evil regime.
Hey margbarIRI
by Jamaleto (not verified) on Fri Feb 01, 2008 04:01 PM PSTCan you spell kiss ass? What a loser. Programmer Craig (aka The comic book guy) is not right regardless of whether IRI is good or bad. We all know IRI is bad. As if I talk about the right or wrong of Iraq war and you say, these people are against the west...what is that? Listen, I am proud to be Iranian and I don't have any doubts about my position. I can respect an opposite position but I don't respond well to any threats. I am willing to put my position on the table without being labeled and I don't expect any less. Is that too hard for you Democracy minded people? You can like or dislike any regimes, but don't sell your country to a Zionist loser like this dude. Could you imagine this arrogant bastard thinking so highly of himself after has drag America into a quick sand of Iraq? This article talks about the possible Zionist Attack, fuck them, dream on. Haala zer zer e vatan forushio bezar kenar, vaghti keh yeh khareji behet tohin mikoneh. ajaba, eh.