For most of the month of August, U.S. Congress will be on recess. Consider this the calm before the storm.
Most in Washington are aware that September will bring with it the biggest push for Iran sanctions in years. AIPAC has been lobbying for months on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), and on September 10 the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations will kick off a massive nationwide lobbying effort, which they compare to the "Save Darfur" movement. All of this will culminate at the end of the month when, conveniently enough, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in New York for the UN General Assembly.
Yes, right around the time Ahmadinejad is at the podium in the UN, Congress is expected to impose what it calls "crippling sanctions" on Iran's economy. The plan is to blockade Iran's foreign supplies of gasoline, hoping that an increase in the price per gallon at the pump will cause the Iranian people to rise up and demand a halt to Iran's nuclear program.
But this plan has number of obvious flaws.
First, the Iranian people have already risen up against the government's hardline leadership. What we have witnessed in Iran for the last two months is unprecedented. To think that marginally higher gas prices will mean anything to a population willing to risk their lives for freedom and democracy is at once naïve and hubristic. According to Juan Cole, imposing broad sanctions on Iran will likely only destroy Iranian civil society and bolster the state's repressive apparatus--as it did in Iraq.
What's more, even if the Iranian people were to demand that the government halt its enrichment program--which they wouldn't, since the vast majority of Iranians support Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology--does anyone think that the government will actually go along with it? Has Tehran been particularly responsive to the wishes of its citizens lately? No, in fact, that is what these people are fighting for each and every day: to have their voices heard.
Next, even if the sanctions were effective in harming the Iranian economy, there isn't a single historical example of economic sanctions translating into a desirable change in the Iranian government's behavior. Just as the hardliners are resisting their people's calls for change, so too will they refuse to be seen as capitulating to the demands of the West.
So why is Congress fixated on this idea if it doesn't stand a chance of stopping the nuclear program? Some would say that the government has to be punished for the brutality with which it has treated its people. Politicians in Washington were universally outraged by the violence against the Iranian people. And for many lawmakers, this was a time to stand up in support of these brave Iranians.
Senator John McCain spoke passionately from the floor of the US Senate, saying: "The United States of America must, and this body must, affirm our support for fundamental human rights of the Iranian people who are being beaten and killed in the streets of Tehran and other cities around Iran. We are with them."
Republican Mike Pence of Indiana said: "We are bound to support the courageous and decent people in Iran who are struggling for their rights and their freedom."
And even Minority Whip Eric Cantor spoke up, saying: "We must rally the world around the cause of the Iranian people."
But now, almost in the same breath, those same lawmakers are calling for "crippling sanctions" on the Iranian economy. They are quick to mention that Iran imports 40% of its refined petroleum, making that industry Iran's "Achilles heel" so these sanctions will be able to "bring the economy to its knees."
So much for standing with the Iranian people.
What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. And with Russia and China ready to provide anything the US won't sell to Iran, the mullahs will surely find a way to fill their gas tanks. So that will just leave the poor and middle class to suffer.
Even neoconservative scholar Fred Kagan has acknowledged the real effect of these petroleum sanctions, saying "Look we need to be honest about this: Iranians are going to die if we impose additional sanctions." So despite all their lip-service, it seems that Congress' priorities haven't changed. They are planning to continue the same failed approach to Iran of the last three decades. To them, these petroleum sanctions made sense before Iran's election, and miraculously, they are still our best option after the election.
Iran changed forever on June 12. We are now dealing with a completely altered country, and we would be wise to tailor our policies to reflect that reality. Congress should brainstorm some new ideas for how to support the Iranian people and still protect our security and nonproliferation objectives.
To start, they should throw out these sanctions.
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Vildesome,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:25 PM PDTThank you and it was a pleasure talking to you!
Thank you Midwesty. I
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:17 PM PDTThank you Midwesty. I really enjoyed our little chat.
If Israel and US want to
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:14 PM PDTIf Israel and US want to help this process they need to get out of way.
The visceral tendencies of both countries is to impede this process for many reasons and many levels. We need to be smart and don't fall into their trap.
How do we avoid confrontation when that is what the hardliners and the Israeli and neocons want?? War is money don't forget. Bush policies actually resulted in exactly what Bush cronies wanted in Iraq.
The reform movement is our
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:12 PM PDTThe reform movement is our best bet. we need to keep it alive through
civil disobdience and not losing our momentum...that's what we need to
focus on more than anything else.
Others will do whatever they have to do.
100% agree. Let's not lose focus.
Vildesome,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:09 PM PDTHaving enemies is not necessarily a bad thing, having confrontation is what we should avoid. Iran's democracy is the foremost priority for all Iranians. If Israel and US want to help this process they need to get out of way. Involving Israel in this already complicated equation will further convolude it. Let's remember that they also don't have a very bright human rights track record.
The reform movement is our
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 04:06 PM PDTThe reform movement is our best bet. we need to keep it alive through civil disobdience and not losing our momentum...that's what we need to focus on more than anything else.
Others will do whatever they have to do.
Midwesty: We don't live in
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:51 PM PDTMidwesty: We don't live in a vacuum.
Free Iran depends on how we counter the threats facing us cleverly. We can't have a free Iran, if we don't defeat those who are against free Iran (Israel, neocons, Russia, etc.). We need to learn how to play the game instead of shying away from it.
Opportunistic charlatan Obama & his misplaced tactics
by SamSamIIII on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:48 PM PDTThis poster child of ignorance & conman in one scene legitimize the ommatie regime calling Ahmadi "The elected candidate" and writes secret letters to Khamenei but then in another scene turns around and tries via petro sanction to punish the poor taxi cab & truck drivers to fix his image of inaction in the face of tyranny.
The opportunist hypocrite & his gang of the clueless admin are all but missing when folks are murdered in streets of Iran, there is no talk of sanctions on the whole leadership ,their families,attache,s,associates roaming around from tokyo to london money laundring & etc but he will do what an opportunist will do to punish the average folks instead.
As I predicted last year;
""..& on the question of Iran...candidate Obama thru his opportunistic character and clueless appologist stance will embolden the ommatie regime to commit yet even more acts of oppression at home and terrors outside to the point that will ultimately force a tragic outcome via outside force on the innocent iranians just to save face for this image wary man"
& guess who helped this man get elected,--->> NIAC & associates(for their own reasons;))
//www.iranianidentity.blogspot.com/
//www.youtube.com/user/samsamsia
Vildesome,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:42 PM PDTI don't want to go there. This is about Iran and its democracy not about Israel.
To answer your question, as
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:42 PM PDTTo answer your question, as long as US is following Bush's policies they will get the same results. They can go and invent all types of plans to deal with IRI but I assure you 500,000 kids later they'll get the same results.
Why are the US or Israel against IRI going nuclear in the first place? Do you think IRGC armed with nuclear weapons should not present any concern to these two countries?
What nuclear Iran has
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:32 PM PDTWhat nuclear Iran has anything to do with a free Iran?
It shouldn't but it does. How do we convince Israel that nuclear Iran under Ahamdinejad and IRGC is not going to pose a threat to Israel?
How are we going to convince Israel that Ahmadi et al are not going to interfer in their internal affairs via proxies such as Hizballah?
Have you ever wondered why the neoconservative op-ed columnists see ahmadinejad as the clear winnder of the election?
Vildesome,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:21 PM PDTThe assumtions that you laid out are the continuation of Bush's policies. Basically they wanted us to take care of their business. What nuclear Iran has anything to do with a free Iran? Israel is concerned about nuclear Iran and we, the Iranians are concerned about a free Iran. How these two very different things can be conjoined?
To answer your question, as long as US is following Bush's policies they will get the same results. They can go and invent all types of plans to deal with IRI but I assure you 500,000 kids later they'll get the same results. This is the real reality. Rememebr what Einstein said about the definition of insanity?
"doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".
Midwesty: Let's deal with
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:02 PM PDTMidwesty: Let's deal with reality.
The sanctions are going to go forward whether we like or not. I think the tough oil sanctions were finally decided on by the Obama admin precisely because they think the reform movement is dead and buried. The Us has to deal with the IRGC and Ahmadinejad becaue they know the hardliners are really not interested in normalization of relationship or stopping the enrichment.
We either have to convicne the Whitehouse to live "peacefully" with a nuclear armed IRGC and they don't represent any threat whatsoever to the region and beyond or convince them that the reform movement is not dead?
How do we do that?
Vildesome,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 03:04 PM PDTI use strong words but I am not angry. My apologies for being perceived that
way. I am member of NIAC but not in any shape or form a key figure not even
close. I have been away from Iran for long enough that I know the rule of game has changed. But I know the basic principals are still the same.
There will be more pressure on Iranian dissidents as the hardliners in Iran
have taken the member of their opposition hostage. This sums to a significant
number of people but still minority in the vast Iranian society.
We should continue resisting the hardliners from inside and outside of Iran but
as hard as we oppose the hardliners we should try to distinguish ourselves from the AIPAC, Neocons and other hostile entities with special agenda.
A significant number of hardliners and their supporters in Iran are ignorant. We cannot fight ignorance with bullets. We need to open up Iranian society and for that we need to remove the pressure. Let’s Iran gets into WTO, let her to have its borders open to the visitors. The exchange of information will remove the roots of ignorance. Let's spread knowledge not wars.
NIAC is wrong
by mahmoudg on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:41 PM PDTI have not figured out where NIAC is coming or going for that matter. I suppose it is like PAAIA whereby at least one of its board members is an apologist of the Ismalic Republic. The world has only two alternatives to combat this terrorist regime. Either to impose hefty sanctions or start a campaign of surgical attacks on the regime's achillles heals. The world will not sit back idly while these thugs gain access to the bomb. Be wise and choose the one alternative that might lessen the chance of a war....
Why not instead of taking
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:40 PM PDTWhy not instead of taking our frustration and anger against each other write a letter to the Whitehouse and CPANELl to convince them their action will not benefit the US or Iran?
Did the Whitehouse order Cpanel to do this? why don't we find out? Has the whitehouse made a backdoor deal with the hardliners?
Why is every debate on this
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:33 PM PDTWhy is every debate on this site turns into shouting match and vitriolic? Why can't we use the power of logic and reasoning to resolve disagreements and conflicts??
Midwesty: that is only in
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:17 PM PDTMidwesty: that is only in your own belligerent mind. And if you're this angry and combative, you will never going to be able to persuade your opposition to change his/her mind.
Midwesty: Did I ever say
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:15 PM PDTMidwesty: Did I ever say that the solution should come from without??
What is the solution from within given the circumstances within Iran?
What do you forsee occurring in Iran for the next few month, year?
What is your solution to prevent sanctions against Iran?? Do you have any suggestions?? Has NIAC been able to convince Washington not to go forward with their plan?
That's a pathetic paradox...
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:14 PM PDTto think that one's independence and freedom needs to be supported by someone else.
The alternative,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:08 PM PDTdoes not come from the without. The solution is from the within. Why do we suffer from short memory? Wasn't it just 6 months ago that Bush wanted to attack Iran? Wasn't it about 6 years ago that Iraq was invaded with the help of sanctions?
Didn't we see how N Korea's behavior changed as the west started respecting not confronting it.
Do you think 30 years of hostility will go away over night? Have we thought what would be the cost of another failed policy towards Iran, an even stronger hardline idealogy
Do you know what the problem is? That we think other countries are the labratories for our political expereince.
American Company drops 150+ reformist Websites in Iran
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 02:06 PM PDTYes, it did happen here. A US company was able to do what the Iranian Hardliners haven't been able to accomplish in the entire disputed election season and the subsequent massacre.
I'm a bit sketchy on the details, but according to this translated letter from Iran, the company CPANEL has revoked its licenses to Iranian ISPs and
One such incident of three days ago consisted of revoking the license of one server that was hosting over 500 Iranians sites and weblogs including at least 150 which are directly owned by reformists in Iran, and all are currently unable to get any work done. These sites include Nowrooz, Kalameh (as of this writing), Kalameh Sabz, Moje sevom, etc... they generally include weblogs fof well known reformist figures.
//www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/9/764209/-American-Company-drops-150+-reformist-Websites-in-Iran
FK: You think if the
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 01:49 PM PDTFK:
You think if the Green movement in Iran is decimated and reformers are entirely eliminated then it would be easier to reach democracy?
NIAC = IRI's non official lobby in America
by Farhad Kashani on Sun Aug 09, 2009 01:25 PM PDTDear NIAC, the non official lobby group of the Fascist IRI regime,
What makes you think you have any credibility left? For all these years, we hear you saying absolutely NOTHING about the conditions Iranian people live under this regime. We saw you bluntly and openly legitimize a clearly illegitimate regime. We heard you saying nothing about how to progress the cause of democracy, which is Iranian people’s first and foremost problem, in Iran. All we heard from you is anti Americanism, justifying and apologizing for IRIs crimes and coming up with ways to legitimize the illegitimate and illegal regime of IRI.
NIAC, you do not speak on behalf of the Iranian American community. All you speak on behalf are bunch of misguided, conspiracy theorist, anti American leftist loonies who care more about seeing Israel and America in trouble than seeing their own country progress and live in prosperity.
At least have the decency to come out and admit you were wrong in supporting the IRI regime. That’s the least you can do.
No one is asking for sanctions that hurt the Iranian people, but damn sure anyone who cares about Iran, and obviously you and a few remaining supporters of you are not part of, strongly urge the International community on sanctions that will target the Fascist regime of IRI. That’s the least that International community can do to help the forgotten and oppressed Iranian people.
ای که پنجاه رفت و درخوابی
FredSun Aug 09, 2009 12:32 PM PDT
The wishy-washy fashion conscious of this world would do themselves a load of good to read up what Karrubi, the lifelong Islamist cutthroats republic insider has wrote about the raping of Iranians by the IRI.
The fifty plus don’t have much time left to have their lifelong hatred of others at the price of Iranians being raped and murdered in check and finally take stock of reality.
What is NIAC doing to Keep
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:17 PM PDTWhat is NIAC doing to Keep the reformers alive? What will happen when Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Kahroubi, Khatami are all assassinated or executed in the next few years?
The situation has changed
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:16 PM PDTThe situation has changed drastically in Iran since the June 12 election.
The reformer movement is or will be practically deader than a door nail if the hardliners are not mirculously stopped.
Ahmadinejad Military Junta will be in charge whether we like or not.
What are the alternatives?
Allow the IRGC and their Hojatieh supporters to set the ME on fire for the Mahdi to reappear?
Thank you NIAC!
by IRANdokht on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:02 PM PDTThank you for being on the side of reason and supportive of Iranians in US and Iran.
" So much for standing with the Iranian people.
What better way to show our support than by casting the common man into financial ruin? Think about who suffers the most in the US when gas prices rise due to shocks--it's the poor. Why would it be any different in Iran? Certainly the elite won't suffer the brunt of these sanctions--the Revolutionary Guards have been getting rich off smuggling sanctioned goods into the country for years. "
Well said!
Unfortunately, many of the Iranians who live in the west and speak of "airtight" sanctions are completely out of touch with the reality of life and the economic situation in Iran. Also unfortunate is their support of the AIPAC lobby that's pushing for military attack on Iran. They're not many but they're loud.
Thank you
IRANdokht
vildemose,
by Midwesty on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:02 PM PDTNormal
0
"So even if the oil flow continues, sanctions may have the impact
that the U.S. and its allies want".... and what that impact is?
The true answer is that the sponsors of the bill know that sanctions do not affect the IRI government directly. They know that IRI will have enough gas to put in their cars and run their day-to-day operations but the real intention is to frustrate Iranians and make them to revolt, a cheap regime change in cost of Iranians' blood. That makes me sick to stomach. However why it makes me sick is not that their plan is as watery as their brain but the following scenario:
Iran has about 4000 miles border with countries that she has been sharing
various cultures, religions and languages with. In many cases people freely
pass the borders on daily basis to exchange commodities. This has been going on for centuries. Even if US get miraculously lucky and have the consent of all governments in neighboring Iran to go with US sanctions, it will push things into underground resulting in not shortage in gas but only higher prices.
However this is not the end of story. The Iranian economy is very dynamic; it
will adjust itself to the new prices and will offset the IMPACT. It takes some
time during which only the ordinary people, whom the westerners are claiming to defend, will hurt. Ambulances will be grounded, drugs and food circulation will be affected and people will die from malnutrition and lack of medicine. Same thing happened during Clinton on Iraqis.
Clinton's sanctions on Iraq killed more than 500,000 kids because of the sanctions, where Saddam managed to accumulate even more wealth by bribing UN officials to curve the UN mandates.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
by vildemose on Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:32 AM PDTSunday, August 09, 2009 Escobar on Iran, China and the Silk Road Pepe Escobar on Iran-Chinese relations and the New Silk Road. this is part 3 of a series at The Real News Network //www.juancole.com/2009/08/escobar-on-iran-ch...