The period leading to the Iranian presidential elections is always exciting, and this time it will be no different.
According to a recent article in the Tehran based Baztab online, members of a parallel intelligence agency inside Iran have been arrested after being caught spying on Tehran Mayor and presidential candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The arrested group was collecting information about Ghalibaf's meetings and electioneering gatherings.
In an interesting twist to the story, the head of the counter intelligence agency that caught the group was later removed because he supplied the information to the press.
The report does not mention who were the people spying on Ghalibaf. However one can assume that the person who has the most to lose from Ghalibaf's participation in the elections is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He may feel safe about Ayatollah Khatami's participation, because he could assume that Ayatollah Khamenei, who is not usually in favor of reformists, may not allow him to win.
However Ghalibaf who is from within the conservative movement may pose a bigger danger. Unlike Ahmadinejad, he was a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guards, and fought in the war for the entire eight years. This is in contrast to Ahmadinejad's one and half years on the front lines.
Furthermore, Ghalibaf is seen as more moderating force in terms of economic and foreign policy. He has openly spoken out against excessive spending and populist policies of the current government, while calling for a more moderate foreign policy and investment from abroad. This is music to the ears of many conservative supporters, and those who want to support Khatami, but believe that despite his good intentions, Khamenei will never let him win.
There are two other factors which boost Ghalibaf's chances.
One is Ali Larijani's decision not to participate. His participation may have led to cannibalization of votes between the two.
The other is election of Barack Obama. His calls for unconditional dialogue have been heard in Tehran. So have recommendations for him not to meet with Ahmadinejad.
It is very possible that the Supreme Leader may decide that Ahmadinejad's catastrophic economic performance and his foreign policy stance may have cost Iran too much. That his removal may be worth the price for the sake of internal stability, and the chance to reap the benefits of dialogue with the US.
Between all the candidates, Ghalibaf would be the best face saving choice. His election as a conservative candidate would allow Khamenei to choose a middle course which would satisfy conservatives at home and those wanting to approach a more moderate Iran. This is one possibility which should not be ignored.
Meir Javedanfar is a Middle East Analyst at Tel Aviv-based MEEPAS, www.meepas.com
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تکرار همان مذاکرات
Evan Siegel (not verified)Tue Jan 27, 2009 05:56 PM PST
Well, there you go making assumptions.
Fact is, my good friend Meir disagreed sharply with the war.
Also, although he works in Israel, he is not an Israeli. He is an Iranian who works in Israel.
Israel's criminal attack on Gaza was condemned by many Jews and Israelis. Not enough, but many.
He never baf a Ghali
by Shyton (not verified) on Sun Jan 25, 2009 06:51 PM PSTI did a very intensive and nerve breaking research about him and his family for several weeks. I found out that neither him or any of of his family members ever baf a Ghali before. He is a lair. Why don't you tell us your real name. Pashmekhayehbaf.
ps! You guys should have
by Fatollah (not verified) on Sun Jan 25, 2009 06:42 PM PSTps! You guys should have seen the pamphlets distributed in favour of Dr. !!! Mohsen Reza'ee in the 2005 Presidential Election. It gave a crash course in his life story, appointed commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps at age 27 by Imam K. himself, his abilities in commanding in front lines, his resignation which was not accepted by holly Imam K. himself after the war! So he reluctantly continued as commander of the Revolutionary G. for couple of more years, his resilience in taking a higher education in 1990s while employed as ... (I don't remember what/where?), further more Reza'ee was compared to as the son of Iran's Pre-Islamic Heros from that of Sassanian era. I remember the Goons of Reza'ee arrested my brother for not having an Islamic name in 1982 and dragged to the nearest komité!!! Now, imagine what they did to others who opposed them ideologically! I mean, How low can these people get!?
I am convinced that these people are good disciples in the art of changing colors! Their masters are Akhound jaamaat, wouldn't be surprised if they have had secret dealings with Israel/USA during past 30 years!
Fatollah
question
by MRX1 on Sun Jan 25, 2009 06:32 PM PSTI am no fan of Obama, but for you liberals who voted and worship the new messiah, isn't it aninsult to comapre Ghalibaf with him?
Icia, giving titles to one
by Fatollah (not verified) on Sun Jan 25, 2009 06:02 PM PSTIcia, giving titles to one another in IRI is just like distributing "Noghl-o-Nabat"!
The sharp looking of these former chagho kesh- ha is Ghalibaf! Other then that, you can add Ahmadinejad, Mohsen Reza'ee to the list!!!
Perhaps, people from downtown Tehran or other places in Iran with peasantry background will relate to these personalities/Sardars with "riish, kot va shalvar-haye nahan-jar, the smell of their breath felt from 1 mile a way", the same people could not relate to sharp looking commanders of former regime, many with impeccable military education from the best academies! The ironic part is that most of the imperial commanders of the imperial regime did not have 1/20 of the wealth that these bozo's possesses today. The more rich they become the more filthy looking they get!
Dr. - my left foot.
Fatollah
Khaalibaaf
by ThePope on Sun Jan 25, 2009 03:46 PM PSTLike I said earlier in my comment down this thread: khaalibaaf brought in lots of martyrs for his supreme leader during the war which gained him lots of bullshit titles and a high position in the regime.
Now, the funny thing is that the stupid IRI supporters/sympathizers think that this bozo is the right clown to represent them... They've been choosing between the devil and the deep sea for 30 years now.
(khalaayegh harchi laayegh)
p.s.
Few months ago I was in Tehran and I heard/saw with my own ears/eyes that this bozo was SUGGESTING a solution for bad hejaabi by imposing a law for mandatory chaador...!
سردار سرتيپ
Icia (not verified)Sun Jan 25, 2009 02:37 PM PST
سردار سرتيپ خلبان دكتر مخمد باقر قاليباف!!!!!!!!
يه تريلي هم نميكشه اين همه لقب رو.
يكي به من ميگه 1.كه اين ادم كه تو نوجوونيش در حال انقلاب كردن بوده و در جوونيش رفته جنگ چطور بدون ديدن دوره هاي دانشگاهي نظامي شد سردار؟اخه تو ايران يه نفر كه حتي دانشكده افسري رفته به سختي تيمسار ميشه(البته تو ارتش و نه سپاه كه به خاطر رد شدن از منطقه بد اب و هوا درجه ميدن)
2.كي مدرسه و دانشگاه رفت كه شد دكتر؟چون تا جايي كه من يادمه حداقل 6-7 ساله ايشون رو دكتر مينامن.10 سال اول انقلابم كه درگير جنگ و بكش بكش مخالفا بودن.تو اين مدت كاراي مهم مملكتي هم كه انجام ميدادن.
3.تا اونجايي هم كه ما شنيديم سپاه تو جنگ كاراي زميني مي كرد حالا ايشون كي خلبان شد من كه نفهميدم!!!!!
get this str8.....
by ali123 (not verified) on Sun Jan 25, 2009 01:22 PM PSTNO AKHOOND SHOULD EVER BE ABLE TO RUN FOR OFFICE....or govern a nation like iran.
mullahs and akhoonds and any paid goons associated with them have no place in iranian society nor the world. They are a creation of the brits and their tool for meddling in and controling iranian affairs over the past couple of centuries.
unfortunately for us, reza shah kabir, didn't get to finish his work like attaturk by ridding our nation from these parasites.
articles like these where akhoonds and their lowlife "forsat-talabs" like ghalibaf are somehow presented as legitimate choices for our people are a great diservice to the future of iran.
the bs that has been going on in iran since 79- the sham that is the islamic republic is nothing but a tool for the brits and french to rob iran blind from its vast resources- the akhoonds' version of "elections" is nothing but a bunch of bs- where candidates from non-religous parties are not allowed and a one-handed cripple akhoond plays god in the end and chooses who the brits tell him to pick
so stop this nonsense about "i love khatami....and so on...." instead tell the truth about these spineless criminals so the world knows how iran has suffered for 30 years!
to Meir Javedanfar
by Anonymous9999999999 (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 08:58 PM PSTThank you for the insightful article. I hope he wins. I love khatami, but he had his chance, and khatami is not good with the economy. i'm not saying ghalibaf is good with the economy, but atleast we know that khatami is only good in clutural matters. i think iran's main problem right now is 1. economy. 2. foreign policy. we should give gholibaf a chance at this thing.
God bless Iran.
@Jakarta ROFLMAO! thank you
by <<>> (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 06:20 PM PST@Jakarta
ROFLMAO! thank you for the laugh. too true,,,,
I think it's sad that
by jakarta (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 01:42 PM PSTI think it's sad that Iranian standards have become so low that we are happy that a slighly insane islamist might come into power instead of a totally insane islamist. Whoo hoo!
Face the bitter truth! We are the problem!
by farrad02 on Sat Jan 24, 2009 11:17 AM PSTIt doesn't matter who replaces Ahmadinejad or what happens to Iran's economy or any other incident in the pblic arena. The IRI regime will survive regardless, because the people will tolerate it!
The fact is that Iran's problems are rooted in the culture and manners of her people. The majority of people in Iran are contempt with a regime like Islamic Republic of Mullahs and will not support nor allow a democratic and transparent system of government, because it doesn't match their way of thinking about life, the world and their own identity! Iranians are all little dictators in nature and can not relate to nor will they accept any other kind of system.
Don't waste your time with these discussions; you know what is the root problem! The only way out of this mess is if by strike of pure luck and chance another strongman like Reza Shah was to come in power and have absolute control and happen to be a well wishing nationalist who wants to do good by people! Reza Shah was an accident of history, as was Amir Kabir! We need another freak accident like that!
Ghalibaf could end up being that strongman, if he can get elected and then round up and kill all the Mullahs and other detractors the day after he becomes president! Then conduct a period of reforms and after 4-6 years declare a democratic system and step aside in favor of democracy! And chances of that happening are .... anyone venture to guess?
Why are some Iranians so degenerate..
by Parthian on Sat Jan 24, 2009 11:03 AM PSTWhy are you comparing Barrack Obama to that criminal by using Barack's name. The two could not be farther apart in charater, education, and decency. This is a disgusting use of President Obama' name.
IF Islamic Republic survives
by <<>> (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 09:46 AM PSTIF Islamic Republic survives beyond 2010, Iran will have an economy comparable to that of Zimbabwe today. That will seal the death of Islamic Republic and political Islam in Iran.
Excellent observation. The IR will not survive the global Great Depression, period.
If some day more than 50% of the Iranian nation becomes hardcore
by Faribors Maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 09:38 AM PSTIf some day more than 50% of the Iranian nation becomes hardcore Basiji or hardcore Hizbollahi then you can safely assume that the Iranian nation is indeed a fascist nation.
ACTUAL STATISTICS:
100% Of the 7ty millions Iranians who live in their Islamic republic of Iran are fanatic mullahs
25% are passdars
6,25% are Basijis
To be a hizbolahi effords more so that only 30% or each third Iranian is a Hizbolahi. I think it is a kind of LIONCLUB of the Islamic republic of Iran. With difference that only the real lions are permitted to enter. In the lionclubs in the western countries one sees only corrupts, criminals terrorists and murders.
and 100% of "IRANIAN"S can assume whatever they want, they live in a democratic area in a western country. They can assum or not assum by day and by night, early or late, PM or AM and the honorable Iranian nation who based its Islamic Republic of Iran 1978/79 is enjoying since many years its achievements and the blessing of the Islamic Revolution. That nation - so i mean - does not assum but acts. See the united States of America, see the countries of Eurpean Union. The sources of Imperialism are disappearing one after the other. First of all their minimi the occupeiers of beloved Palestine. However it will not happen today nor tomorrow. She/He who wishes to celebrate and take part on the festivities must have a little more time. Greeting
Barrack Ghalibaf
by Faribors Maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 09:18 AM PSTBarrack Ghalibaf
Among all Iranian presidential candidates, Ghalibaf would be the best face saving choice
** may be the statement is the true truth. Just in this case better not mention it. The Remark reduces his chances. However "Iranian" - so far I know - can not be clicked on in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The less than zero chances that the gentleman has kann not be reduced anyhow.
The world is full of contradictions.
Greeting
Second Reza Shah or Barrack??
by Naeem (not verified) on Sat Jan 24, 2009 09:13 AM PSTThe deceptive smiles on the picture tell the whole story!! The self proclaimed second Reza Shah of 4 yours ago & Barrack of today brings a big smile to this guy's face to fool people as Khatemi used the same scheme to amass 20 million votes 12 years ago. Enough is enough.
Glad To See You Back
by Mort Gilani on Sat Jan 24, 2009 11:40 AM PSTMeir,
I agree with your point that Ghalibaf, compared to deranged Ahmadinejad is the better option for the Iranian regime, but overall his selection or win is a matter of too little too late. Iran’s economy needs a miracle to prevent it from a free fall and it is likely that IF Islamic Republic survives beyond 2010, Iran will have an economy comparable to that of Zimbabwe today. That will seal the death of Islamic Republic and political Islam in Iran.
BTW, nice picture of jackass Ghalibaf and his sweetheart!
If Meir is pushing for Ghalibaf, then he is good only for israel
by gol-dust on Fri Jan 23, 2009 10:45 PM PSTThis Meir is such an israeli spy! He is up to no good for iran! i don't know who ghalibaf is, but i don't like this israeli agent coming to our site after approving the killing and wounding of all these innocent palestinian children and women in gaza telling us who to vote in iran. ALL ISRAELIS SHOULD BE ASHAME OF THEMSELVES! WHERE IS HUMANITY? AND THEY COMPLAINT ABOUT BULOCUST! Baby killers!
Oastad: I did not write that
by stopthelies (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 09:21 PM PSTOastad: I did not write that paragraph. I can't categorically tell you what the author meant by using the word "nation". By the same tokin, a nation can be fascistic as in the case of Nazi Germany. The people did tacitly and overtly approve and believed in Hitler and his fascistic ideas.
If some day more than 50% of the Iranian nation becomes hardcore Basiji or hardcore Hizbollahi then you can safely assume that the Iranian nation is indeed a fascist nation.
stopthelies, I did read your post, including...
by Ostaad on Fri Jan 23, 2009 07:44 PM PST"elections in fascist NATIONS are a complete sham", and "Fascist NATIONS also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections". Did I miss anything? Or you have no clue?
Ghalibaf, The super hero:
by ThePope on Fri Jan 23, 2009 06:19 PM PSTSHEZEN is (was)
A basiji/sepahi,
a commander of one the armed forces (as a teenager!),
a commander of sepah's air force (without any pilot training!),
a police (!),
a chief of police(!),
a doctor(!),
a pilot (new!),
an IRI strategist (which is actually his field, masalan),
a businessman (construction!)
and finally & suddenly mayor (of the capital!)...
and loves $hirini
This "pragmatic" and "efficient" shezen (hero) encouraged and sent so many inexperienced young boys to the fronts of war and made their families taste martyrdom (khomeini style).
During the war, whoever brought in the most martyrs for the revolution, gained the most popularity in the eyes of the supreme leader, which today automatically results in gaining P O W E R within the IRI's vicious regime.
Shezen has repeated the same promises that ahmadinejad did during his presidential campaign...
But, the IRI masters behind the curtains have not yet decided between ahmadijnejad or this bozo, who's such a hard core hezbo that he makes ahmadinejad look like a moderate and soft dude!
Ostaad
by AnonymousX (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 05:38 PM PSTDon't try it. Stopthelies obviously was talking about the IRI, not the people of Iran. Your futile atttempts to make it sound the other way, is just that: futile (and funny too).
Oostad: Re-read! I
by stopthelies (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 05:03 PM PSTOostad: Re-read! I wrote:
"14 defining characteristics of Fascist governments":
Read the link I provided by rense:
The title of the article is:
"Fourteen Defining
Characteristics Of Fascism"
//www.rense.com/general37/char.htm
Why in my post prompted to conflate people with government?
Is it true?
by Question? (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 04:45 PM PSTthat Islamic Republic of Iran government structure a carbon copy of the Church of England? Anybody?
stopthelies, I always thought a government...
by Ostaad on Fri Jan 23, 2009 04:38 PM PSTcould be "fascist", not the whole nation. Are you saying the entire Iranian nation is "fascist"?!!! Can you elaborate?
The deference is that Barak
by Nicnafs (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 04:30 PM PSTThe deference is that Barak Ghalibaf laugh for himself and is full of himself and Barak Obama laugh for you and is full of wisdom. We have also people like Obama in Iran but they are in prisons or can not talk.
Utter rubbish
by Zion on Fri Jan 23, 2009 03:13 PM PSTWhere do you get this stuff Meir? It's embarrassing.
From the "14 defining
by stopthelies (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 01:34 PM PSTFrom the "14 defining characteristics of Fascist governments":
//www.rense.com/general37/char.htm
14. Fraudulent Elections - elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.
The IRI is illegitimate
by AnonymousX (not verified) on Fri Jan 23, 2009 01:13 PM PSTIts elections are a sham and an insult to the people of Iran. Those who "analyze" these elections, and make it sound as though they are true elections, most likely are within the inner-IRI circles.