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Let's Get Real
12-May-2011
One of the great bluffs in the foreign policy community in the previous decade was that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless Washington stepped up and took military action first. With predictable frequency since the mid-1990s, reports emerged claiming that Israel was months, if not weeks, away from bombing Iran. And every time a new dire warning was issued, a new rationale was presented to convince the world that the latest Israeli warning was more serious than the previous one. The Israeli threats, however, were bluffs all along. Israel did not have the capacity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities. But the huffing and puffing ensured that the American military option remained on the table; that Washington would not deviate from the Israeli red line of rejecting uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; and that the Iranian nuclear program was kept at the top of the international community's agenda.
But the persistent bluffing also carried a price. The Israeli narrative on Iran has grown increasingly alarmist, desperate, and existential over the past 15 years. Inflating the Iranian threat served several purposes domestically. It provided Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres a rationale to push for peace with the Palestinians in the 1990s, while more recently Benjamin Netanyahu has used it to resist pressure from Washington to do just that. But the domestic benefits came at the price of limiting Israel's options and flexibility vis-à-vis Iran. As Israeli politicians built up the Iranian threat and established a near-consensus that Tehran constituted an existential threat, it became increasingly difficult for any Israeli politician to walk back the threat depiction without losing critical political capital at home. As a result, there was a steady escalation of the threat depiction from Iran and no clear ways to de-escalate.
I wrote about this in the Forward in late 2007, pointing out that Israel was suffering from strategic paralysis due to its inability to adjust to the region's new realities and walk back its alarmist position on Iran. Today, Israel's strategic position in the region is at even greater risk. In the past few years, for instance, tensions have steadily increased between Israel and Turkey with the friction reaching a boiling point after the Gaza flotilla incident in 2010. As a result, the strategic alliance with Turkey seems to be lost for the foreseeable future. Now, with the fall of the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Israel has lost its most important Arab ally. Thus, the cost of the strategic paralysis is greater today than it was even a few years ago.
Against this backdrop, statements by both Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan in the past few days have stirred the political pot in Israel and made headlines worldwide. Speaking at a conference in Jerusalem, Dagan said that bombing Iran's nuclear installations would be "a stupid idea," adding that military action might not achieve all of its goals and could lead to a long war. Numerous Israeli officials have derided him for undercutting the pressure on Iran.
Yet, Dagan is not the first Israeli to contradict the official Israeli line shortly after leaving office. His predecessor at the Mossad, Efrahim Halevi, challenged a related Israeli talking point on Iran after having retired -- the idea that the Iranians are irrational and as a result neither containment nor diplomacy can be pursued. "I don't think they are irrational, I think they are very rational. To label them as irrational is escaping from reality, and it gives you kind of an escape clause," he told me in 2006.
Similarly, on the eve of his departure from political life, outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert delivered a stinging parting shot in 2008 questioning the feasibility of an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Olmert told the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth that Israel had lost its "sense of proportion" when stating that it would deal with Iran militarily. "What we can do with the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Lebanese, we cannot do with the Iranians," Olmert said. "Let's be more modest, and act within the bounds of our realistic capabilities," he cautioned.
One of the few Israeli leaders who has consistently cautioned against Israel's alarmist line on Iran is current Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Earlier this week, he warned against hysteria on the Iranian threat and argued that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb. "I don't think in terms of panic," he said. "What about Pakistan, some political meltdown happens there and four bombs wind up in Iran. So what? So you head for the airport? You close down the country? Just because they got a shortcut? No. We are still the most powerful in the Middle East." Barak's position on this matter is not new. He warned against making Israel a target of Iran by inflating the Iranian threat as far back as 1993. "We should, therefore, not create a climate of hysteria by setting ourselves up as Iran's main target," Barak said according to Agence France Presse.
Dagan's challenge to the official Israeli line may have been calculated to do exactly what no sitting Israeli Prime Minister seems capable of doing -- breaking the strategic paralysis, and to stop painting Israel in a corner where pressure on the U.S. to attack Iran chips away from Israel's credibility due to its repeated inability to fulfill its threats.
If so, Dagan's move may not just enable Israel to more effectively adjust itself to the new regional realities, it may also enable Washington to address the broader set of challenges presented by Iran that have been neglected -- which include Iran's regional policies, its human rights abuses, and the repression of the Iranian people's struggle for democracy. Dagan's injection of realism, by reducing the nuclear hysteria that has inhibited America's maneuverability, may free Washington to paint itself out of its own nuclear corner and begin working to address the totality of the Iranian challenge.
First published in foreignpolicy.com.
AUTHOR
Trita Parsi is president of the National Iranian American Council and author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the U.S.
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Greece is good model for expansion our horizon
by Siavash300 on Sat May 21, 2011 09:48 AM PDTUnlike the palestinians Greeks never got into endless war with Turkey over lost lands. Indepth look and research about differences between these 2 nations will solve middle east crisis. To be able to see the root of conflict. What happened that Greeks never choose to fight and forgiveness took over war. Why is that? That is the best way to go. Forget about meetings in Washington etc. These kind of meetings has been going on since 1948 and never reached any where. Still blood shed, still hostility and still hate.
After the Alexander
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri May 20, 2011 11:25 AM PDToccupation of Iran many Greeks settled in Iran. Mostly in Gazvin!
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Fri May 20, 2011 08:43 AM PDTAgha Sia,
Forget the Greeks,
Listen to what Mr Netanyahu says today about Obama:
U.S. "does not understand reality". //news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_obama_mideast_netanyahu
According to Israel nobody understands Middle East but the Israelis who are European and American settlers (among other jews) who have occupied Palestine, destroying more than 400 villages and turning millions of natives into Refugees.
This weekend the chiefs of the clan (AIPAC) are getting together in Wishington and President Obama will talk there too.
Forget the Greeks and 300 for now.
"The Greeks were not Jewish". ..Mola
by Siavash300 on Wed May 18, 2011 06:37 PM PDTQuestion was :"what was the difference between Palestinians and Greeks?", but the responce came up as difference between jews and Greeks.
What a big mistake.
Murmured Hazrate Siavash
....oh... sorry there was no Hazrate during the time of Siavash-
all lizards were safe. lol
Molla Shotor
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Wed May 18, 2011 09:53 AM PDTThe Greeks were not Jewish!"
Right and Muslims therefore do not hate the Greeks so much. Also Greeks have their nation. If Israel wanted all its traditional land they would be asking for a lot more. Plus Greeks do harbor a great deal of hate toward Turks. Greeks have blocked any attempt to integrate Turkey into EU always.
Pondered Hazrate VPK!
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Wed May 18, 2011 08:22 AM PDT"Your answer is because:
The Greeks were not Jewish!"
Murmured Hazrate shotor.
Learn from Greeks
by Siavash300 on Wed May 18, 2011 07:51 AM PDTIn 1922, Otoman empire took all lands in northern Greece and annexed to Turkey. Greeks never like to lose those lands and they harbor silent animacity toward Turkey, but they didn't make a long lasting war with Turkey government. Can anyone explain what was the differences between Palestinians and Greeks?
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Tue May 17, 2011 11:10 AM PDTLets get real,
The narrative of Israel in occupied Palestinian land is
The Story of Occupier and the Occupied:
"After forty years of Israeli military occupation, two separate legal and administrative systems, maintained by the regular use of military force, for two populations unequally inhabiting the same piece of land: exactly as was the case in the colonial countries described by Frantz Fanon, or in South Africa under apartheid"
"Israel maintains two separate road systems in the West Bank, for example: one for the territory’s immigrant population of Jewish settlers, one for its indigenous non-Jewish (i.e., Palestinian) population."
//electronicintifada.net/content/secular-democratic-state/6978
Soosan Khanoom part II
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Tue May 17, 2011 03:19 AM PDTWell thank you for supporting my right to my family home. Mind you I am just asking for my home. Still under an Iranian government in land of Iran. I am not asking for my own nation!
The dispute over Israel will be there forever. Right now Israeli have the force. So they are going to keep the land. I don't understand why they just don't come out and say they want to keep it all. Then be done.
Instead they keep a false hope in the mind of Palestinians. I think USA should offer reasonable Palestinians an offer to immigrate here. It beats their present condition and is an alternative. Start a new life and raise their kids in peace.
Man you really can't
by rtayebi1 on Mon May 16, 2011 09:46 PM PDThave a faint heart if U write a comment in Iranian.com. As for me I am not going to write another comment till I become a master in some sort of martial art. Can somebody answer these questions please
If Zionism means a land for Jewish people, why is that bad?
wasn't Israel their land anyways? Thanks in advance
by the way
by Soosan Khanoom on Mon May 16, 2011 04:51 PM PDTI totally support your rights to take back your home ..... and one day you will ... cause IRI can not survive based on injustices ... no one can
VPK
by Soosan Khanoom on Mon May 16, 2011 04:47 PM PDTwhat it has to do with Islam? There are many organizations that support Palestinians rights and the majority of those are not even Islamic.
This is not a war between religions. It is a war over a piece of land. It is not a holy land anymore .... it is a shit land ..... PERIOD
Soosan Khanoom part 1
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon May 16, 2011 04:27 PM PDTMy own family home in Iran was taken by IR. Do you support my right to take it back? I bet you will not. Why is my right to my home any less than Palestinians.
Let us face it the Arabs had the Arabian peninsula and that was it. Through war and victory they took all the rest of so called Arab nations. Now the table is turned. Israeli have taken back their historical home.
Why is it that one groups has more "rights" than any other? You just do not like Israel and prefer Islam. Be honest and admit your bias. It makes for a better debate.
PLO
by Soosan Khanoom on Mon May 16, 2011 02:18 PM PDTStop accusing Palestinian people in regard with Iran- Iraq War. It is almost like blaming Iranian people for the actions that IRI takes.
PLO was an organization at the time who sided with Saddam. We all know that PLO even failed to liberate Palestine.. Arafat liberation army manage the Jewish Occupation, became an auxiliary security forces for the Israeli army and the armed settlers, and help the PLO/PA run its police state.
Mola
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Mon May 16, 2011 01:55 PM PDT"Israeli forces opened fire on thousands of Arab protesters who
marched toward Israel's borders with Syria, Lebanon and Gaza on Sunday
in an unprecedented wave of demonstrations, killing at least 15 people,
including 10 in Lebanon.
What do you think IRI will do if "thousands" of Pakistani marched to Iran? Or maybe Afghans or Iraqi or anyone else. They just as would any other nation will take action. I do not care what the "Palestinians" were marking. Not my problem.
Now please go post to some Palestinian site. We do not give a ***. Pals lost any support I may have had for them when they joined their buddy Saddam. Bye bye!
Said Hazarate VPK
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Mon May 16, 2011 12:30 PM PDTIran is not Israel's problem,
Israel's racist, criminal policies towards the Palestinians and other nations in the Middle East is her problem.
Yesterday;
"Israeli forces opened fire on thousands of Arab protesters who marched toward Israel's borders with Syria, Lebanon and Gaza on Sunday in an unprecedented wave of demonstrations, killing at least 15 people, including 10 in Lebanon.
The Palestinians were marking a Palestinian day of mourning for their displacement in the war that followed Israel's creation in 1948."
//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110516/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_lebanon_palestinians
I knew it. :-)))
by Onlyiran on Mon May 16, 2011 07:09 AM PDTYou're caught Moshe. But tell your bosses that we're not afraid of your empty threats of "attack." We found out what you were up to a long time ago.
Nice Farsi by the way. But here, this is in your native language. Take it to your bosses in Tel Aviv:
לא מפחדים מהאיומים שלך
BOOO!
by Mola Nasredeen on Mon May 16, 2011 06:04 AM PDTقافیه که تنگ آید شاعر به جفنگ آید!
و "تقلی ایران" یادت باشد که:
کار هر خر نیست خرمن کوفتن.
Come on Mola Moshe - the jig is up
by Onlyiran on Sun May 15, 2011 05:37 PM PDTwhere are you writing from? Is it Tel Aviv or Haifa?
Listen: we all know that your country, Israel, does not have the military capability (or the courage) to attack Iran. Also, we all know that everything else that your country says and does in this regard is just a show. So, stop it already with the propaganda. Talk is cheap. Tell your boss Natanyahu that we're ready. Come and attack. We're waiting!
The jig is up Moshe. We know your type. Constant talk about war and attack-constant fear mongering--while you grab more land.
And you shed crocodile tears to distract attention. I've got to give it to you folks, though. It's pretty clever.
Reason for Felestin
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sun May 15, 2011 12:14 PM PDTI have wondered why is it that Islamists are so hung up on Felestin. While there is plenty of other bad things going on that effect Muslims. It dawned on me that this is not the plight of Palestinians. Rather they do not like dihimis to talk back.
Islam was introduced by force and battle. In victory Arab Muslims were relatively generous. They did not kill off all the people rather taxed them. They were vastly less destructive than the Mongols. They did treat non-Muslims as second class citizens. But they even allowed at least some of them to practice their religion. It was our home brewed Safavids who forced Islam onto most non-Muslims. But from beginning Muslims made it obvious they were the boss.
Then came Israel. Basically Jews daring to challenge that. In response Naser wanted to push them into the sea. Then Israeli against odds fought back and won! This is an intolerable thing to the Islamists. That is why they are so mad.
Technique # 1 "Demonizing"
by Mola Nasredeen on Sun May 15, 2011 11:36 AM PDTWhen all else fails you can use technique # 1 against your opponent. For your information this technique has lost its effect on this website too. Do you know why? Because it was over-used by the likes of you with a big mouth and little brain.
You sound like some one who is going through Political Puberty and too horny to see the whole picture.
LOOK:
IRAN IS NOT ISRAEL's PROBLEM. ISRAEL IS ISRAEL'S PROBLEM.
WE DON'T WANT A WAR BETWEEN IRAN AND UNITED STATES.
DO YOU HAVE PROBLEM WITH THAT?
THE FOLLOWING IS ISRAEL'S PROBLEM:
"Israeli troops have fired at protesters along Israel's borders with Lebanon and Syria. At least 10 people have been killed as thousands of Palestinians mobilized to mark the anniversary of the uprooting of Palestinians that resulted from the creation of the state of Israel.
It was supposed to be a series of nonviolent protests, the first coordinated move by Palestinians to try to overwhelm Israeli checkpoints along the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and along Israel's boundaries with Syria and Lebanon."
//www.voanews.com/english/news/Dozens-Shot-Injured-Near-Israel-Gaza-Border--121853324.html
In fact, I wouldn't be
by vildemose on Sun May 15, 2011 11:29 AM PDTIn fact, I wouldn't be surprsied if you turn out to be an Israeli agent writing from Tel Aviv.
Good observation. I had been suspecting that for a while now.
Mola - your shotor knows more about Iran than you do
by Onlyiran on Sun May 15, 2011 11:14 AM PDTTalking about distraction, this whole BS that you and IRI MOI employees scream about day in and day out about Israel and the U.S. attacking Iran is nothing but a scare tactic--and you know it. Israel does not have the capability to attack Iran, and as far as the U.S. is concerned, the IRI is the best thing that has ever happened to it. Why mess with a good thing? Actually, the same goes for Israel. If it wasn't for the IRI, Israel would have been forced into a peace agreement a long time ago. The IRI, U.S. and Israel have been bamboozling the world about their fake inevitable confrontation for the past 32 years and have milked it to the hilt.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprsied if you turn out to be an Israeli agent writing from Tel Aviv. With the kind of sophisticated operation that Israeli intelligence agencies run, your propaganda seem to be the exact type of thing that they would do: talking about inevitable war and conflict with Iran while they carry on with their expansion projects!
So, Shalom my friend Moshe!
technique # 2 "distraction"
by Mola Nasredeen on Sun May 15, 2011 09:58 AM PDTThe subject at hand is Iran and Israel and why Israel has been trying to push United States to attack Iran. You must be either blind or not being able to see, hiding behind those dark glasses.
LOOK: I don't want a war between Iran and United States for any reason. I don't want as a U.S. citizen and taxpayer pay for more death and destruction.
Do you have any problem with that?
You come over here and scream your b...s off: "The Islamic Republic of Iran is not democratic, it suppresses a large number of the population", and the rest of the story.
Have you just found out about it? Where have you been all these years?
Mola Felestin
by Onlyiran on Sun May 15, 2011 09:38 AM PDTYour detailed knowledge about the number and breakdown of Palestinians in Israeli prisons is impressive. However, as you mentioned, this is an Iranian site. So, please do tell us what you know about the number of political prisoners in IRI's prisons, the age breakdown, the number of rapes, etc. I bet you don't know a single thing about them, do you?
I don't care what Israel's problems are. But I do know what Iran's main problem is: stateless citizens who care about every other country / people on the planet except their own. You examplify that problem.
What a shame!
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Sun May 15, 2011 09:34 AM PDTIran is not Israel's problem. The racist Zionist occupiers of Palestine are the Middle East's problem.
Open your Baba Ghoori eyes and look at the facts. This is what's reported today:
"Israeli troops clashed with Arab protesters along three hostile borders on Sunday, leaving as many as 12 people dead and dozens wounded in an unprecedented wave of violence marking the anniversary of the mass displacement of Palestinians surrounding Israel's establishment in 1948.
In the most serious incident, the Israeli military said thousands of protesters approached Syria's border with the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. It said hundreds of people burst through the border, and soldiers opened fire to stop them. Dozens were wounded and six were reported killed."
//english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011515649440342.html
VPK jaan, regarding the broken record comment...
by Reality-Bites on Sun May 15, 2011 08:09 AM PDTIsn't that akin to "shoaar daadan"? :-)
Mola: Broken Record
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat May 14, 2011 09:57 PM PDTrepeats itself: over and over and over and ...
...
by Mola Nasredeen on Sat May 14, 2011 07:22 PM PDTIran is not Israel's problem.
Israel is Israel's problem.
Palestinians fighting back to return to their land, the condemnation of Israel by the United Nations and the people of the world for her Nazi-like bahavior towards the Palestinians are just a few of Israel's problems.
U.N. calls to end forced displacement ahead of Palestinian protests.
"The U.N. humanitarian chief appealed Saturday for an end to forced displacement, one day before Palestinians are set to mark what they call the Nakba -- a day to commemorate the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians that accompanied the creation of Israel."
"These policies lead to forced displacement of Palestinians from Jerusalem and from the rest of the West Bank," Amos said in a statement about rules that limit new construction and the land available for Palestinian use.
"Palestinians must be able to plan and develop their communities. They must be able to access education and health care facilities and to conduct their professional and personal lives without restriction," she said."
//edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/05/14/mideast.displacement/
So, the Zionist activists who lurk around here on this Iranian website and wish for the bombardment and destruction of Iran better learn the Arabic language and start spamming Palestinian websites, that's where Israel needs you most.
Mola
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat May 14, 2011 03:12 PM PDTGive it up man you lost the argument long ago.