bayramali

مجید جان

باید تاریخ جنگ داخلی آمریکا را دوباره مرور کنم. و حتما این کار را خواهم کرد.

جنگ دوم جهانی هم با یک ترور یعنی شلیک یک گلوله شروع شد ولی این بار فرق می کند.

اصل قضیه این است که اگر قدرتها بخواهند جنگ را راه بیندازد با هزار بهانۀ مختلف می توانند این کار را بکنند ولی این ها شعورشان از این حرفها بیشتر است و منتظر گوزیدن مشکوک مش قاسم نخواهند نشست تا جنگ را شروع کنند!

مهمان

شوخی با حال و بموقعی بود! ولی از شوخی گذشته جنگهای داخلی (هر دو طرف موضع جنگی گرفته بودند....ولی)  با یک گلولهء بیموقع و اشتباهی از «فورت سامتِر» بطرف «بَتِری» در چارلستون، کارولینای جنوبی شروع شد که بتنهائی تلفاتش بیشتر از مجموع تلفات جنگهای جهانی اوّل، دوّم، جنگ کُره و جنگ ویتنام بود!

Majid jan,

I would think they have learned a thing or two in the art of war making since the civil war. Beside, as you mentioned, it was inevitable, so I believe the accident was the starting fire… you know like when they shoot a gun to start a race in the Olympics

Mehrdad

صدای مشکوک

مجید جان اگه اشتباه نکنم جنگ بین آقا جان و دایی جان ناپلئون هم با یک صدای مشکوک (به احتمال قریب به یقین از جانب مرحوم مش قاسم ) شروع شد...

یادش به خیر!

Mehrdad

But according to many Americans I know in the South, it is commonly accepted that the Civil War in the US started by a gun shot in mistake.  Granted, the war was inevitable but technically speaking, the war started by a mistake. 

If (god forbid) it happen,

If (god forbid) it happen, it will not be accidental

They may make it look like that way just to sell it to the masses but it will not happen if they don't intend to.

No one will enter a full scale war because one side has mistakenly fired a shot or entered one's space. They would (on taraafo az khaye daresh meezanan) before they commit to a war.

Anonymous jaan,

In the same lines about IRI, they say "sange boozorg alamate nazadan"

Mehrdad

بایرام جان

جنگ نیمیشی قارداش!

برو خوش باش... چوخ ساقول.

فرامرز جان به سلامتی‌ یک شات تکیلا!

اول صلوات، بعد نمک، بعد شات تکیلا و دست آخر چاشنی لیمو! بسلامتی!

Everything is sacred

از اون نترس که های و هو داره

Anonymouse, Well Said

از اون نترس که های و هو داره

از اون بترس که سر به تو داره 

There are some odds and the lower odds pay the most!

Faramarz jaan I agree that the odds are against a war but we hear it from all sides.  So it can happen whether it starts by an accidental sinking of a midget sub or a fist fight between Ahmadi's body guards and Emir's body gurards in Kuwait or some sort of attack by Israel.

I think in terms of war it won't be a simple mistakenly sinking an Iranian midget sub or an IRGC's speed boat/Kayak.  By war I'm thinking of a defined and declared war after haggling on who and what started it.  Many wars were started by "mistakes".

The original strike may be an air assault or missle assault and not a ground invasion but what is going to happen when Iran fires their missiles?  They may not be just the same terror missiles used during Iran Iraq war or the 1st Gulf war.  They could actually cause widespread property damage and civilian casualties.

In that case and if the regimes goes biserk and miscalculates and fires all they have, there is no other choice but a full scale and brutal war.

I don't think the regime will survive a war and the US and Russia for that matter won't allow the regime to remain in power.  It will be a disaster.

Propaganda or not, there are military experts in US and Goosfands in Iran who are preparing for war scenarios.  They certainly do not look for odds or propaganda.  They are working over the plans. Over and over. It may not come to fruition but they are constantly working and updating the plans. 

As we say in Farsi, at least on the US side, do not worry about the one who makes a lot of noise (Islamic Republic), worry about the one who is minding their own business with head bowed (US).  Right?! 

Everything is sacred

Odds Are Against It!

If you live near a base like Camp Pendleton in Riverside or Miramar Top Gun School in San Diego or live in their flight path, you can definitely tell if something big is up. There is the constant roar of the jets and nightly helicopter practices. My friends who live in that general area could observe a lot of this prior to Iraq war and during the Surge.

Another reliable source for the likelihood of a war is English and Irish betting houses! A few months before, they correctly had the best odds for the start of the Iraq war on March 17- 19, 2003, based on no moonlight during the night.

There are no odds on any kind of attacks on Iran.

The most likely scenario I believe will be a miscalculation by the I.R. in the Persian Gulf which will result in a quick sinking of the speed boats. This almost happened several months ago when US Navy fired some warning shots as a speed boat was approaching. The captain of the US Navy ship later said that I.R. guys were 20 seconds away from being blown up. One of the recommendations that Adm. Mullen put forward before the June election (and in anticipation of a relationship) was to have a US military to Pasdar direct line to avoid accidental mishaps of this sort. But the I.R. crowd rejected that idea.

If a war ever breaks out, it will be more like the air attacks of Yugoslavia than the full invasion of Iraq.

I agree with Hooshang's comments 90%

This talk of war is really a diversionary tactic (from other internal issues) used by the Islamist regime. However I believe that due to the nuclear issue, there is indeed the potential albeit remote one, for a military strike on Iran.

آقایان محترم ،

شاید بهترین کار این باشد که فکر کنیم چکار خواهیم کرد.

من هم تازگیها به فکر این افتادم که اگه واقعا جنگ بشه تکلیف ما چیه؟  تکلیف این همه چلو کبابی و مغازه ایرانی‌ و بچه‌های ایرانی‌ و خودمون و دیگران چی‌ میشه؟

خیلی‌‌ها مثل سابق میگن ما پرشین هستیم و جنگ با ایرانه و پرشیا در صلح و صفا است!

ولی‌ اکثر ما که نمیتونیم راست راست راه بریم و بگیم پرشین ایم یا اهل ترکیه و یونان و ایتالیا.  بالاخره از اینکه جمهوری اسلامی تنش میخاره شکی‌ نیست. این همه زیر دریایهٔ کوتله و آهن پاره به رخ دنیا میکشه که بگن ما هم هستیم.

هر چی‌ بشه جنگ ایران و عراق رو با این جنگ نمیشه مقایسه کرد.  نه از لحاظ دفاع ایران، نه از لحاظ شرکت گسترده مردم مثل سابق اول انقلاب، نه از لحاظ آمریکا‌.  خدا کنه جنگ نشه. 

Everything is sacred

Excellent read

A vivid picture of human inability to deal with its own making. Thanks for sharing Bayramali.