How ever you look at it, Mousavi is going to be the next president.
The only way Ahmadinejad can be re-elected is for him to gain more than 50% of the vote on Friday. That's highly unlikely, given Mousavi's rising popularity.
Here are the likely scenarios:
A) Mousavi will win more than 50% of the vote on Friday, or
B) Mousavi will get the most votes but less than 50%, followed by Ahmadinejad, Karroubi and Rezaie. In the the run-off election, the great majority of the anti-Ahmadinejad people who voted for Karroubi and Rezaie will vote for Mousavi, making him the next president.
C) Or, Ahmadinejad will gain the majority of votes but not above 50%. Mousavi will come in second, followed by Karroubi and Rezaie. In the run-off, Mousavi will top Ahmadinejad with Karroubi and Rezaie supporters switching to Mousavi.
So be prepared to deal with President Mir Hossein Mousavi for the next four years. Bebinim cheh tofehee az ab darmiyad.
Best of all rejoice the final days of the god-aweful Ahmadinejad era.
Recently by Jahanshah Javid | Comments | Date |
---|---|---|
Hooman Samani: The Kissinger | 4 | Aug 31, 2012 |
Eric Bakhtiari: San Francisco 49er | 6 | Aug 26, 2012 |
You can help | 16 | Aug 23, 2012 |
Person | About | Day |
---|---|---|
نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
FYI/Makhmalbaf on VOA ;0)
by Darius Kadivar on Thu Jun 11, 2009 02:27 PM PDTAll those who criticized VOA Persian are NOW ON VOA Persian ;0)
//www.voanews.com/wm/voa/nenaf/pers/pers1930vb.asx
Whoooaaaaa THE GREAT SATAN IS WATCHING US !
Loooloo Khorkhoreh ;0)
To Capt-Ayhab
by Forgetful (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 02:22 PM PDTMon très cher Capitaine;
You mentioned: "On January 1933 Adolf Hitler was APPOINTED chancellor of Germany by Hindenburg, who had made Germany de facto conservative-nationalist dictatorship state between 1925 and 1930"
But the similarity is right there! I believe you are forgetting this undeniable fact that if or when Moussavi wins, in order for him to be president he needs to have Khamenii's appointment and final approval as well (otherwise he would not be president), Khamneii who has made Iran de facto Islamist dictatorship state since 1989!!!
In fact all IRI presidents will be appointed (read approved) by Khamneii to serve in that position after being "elected"!
Dear Parham
by capt_ayhab on Thu Jun 11, 2009 02:19 PM PDTWith all due respect I think you are getting carried away just a tad bit by comparing Hitler to Ahmadinejad
Granted they both are "dictatorship", but that is were the analogy ends.
After Reichstag building was set on fire on Feb 1933, and since Dutch communist [Marinus van der Lubbe] was charged with setting the fire, all the communists, anarchists and socialists were gathered and sent to Dachau. Which was followed by the [Enablers Act], which suspended all civil liberties. After wards, Hitler started to consolidate power by ruthlessly ELIMINATING every and all opposition parties and individuals.
[Enabler Act] in essence gave Hitler[and Nazi Party who had a very modest majority] total control as a full pledged dictator. Of course by then Hindenburg had died and there was no one to stand in his way.
There are NO similarities between the way Hitler took power and the way[by hooks or crooks] Ahmadinejad was elected.
Regards
-YT
Dr. Strangelove
by Fred on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:26 PM PDTThe all-knowing nuke lover says:
"The population in general did not know about him in depth. People like me who have been in politics for at least 35 years and knew the views of his main supporters knew better. "
Since the all-knowing with at least 35 years under his belt is the man to ask about future, would he mind talking about his boy, Karubi's not future but known past. Things like 300,000,000. bribe he admitted of taking and his private prison at Shahid and what he is going to do with Mohajerani's wife.
BTW, should the all-knowing have forgotten, here is his famous Crux statement that he has never ever repeated again;
“The crux of the issue about Iran's nuclear program is, in my opinion, as follows: If Iran has the ability to make the bomb on a short notice, it becomes unattackable. That is not something that the US and Israel can tolerate. They want to be the hegemone(SIC) of the Middle East. “
Ooops!
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:19 PM PDTHistorical facts getting in the way of Parham's arguments!!! No worries Parham, lets just pretend they voted for him. :)
But remeber, iranians are voting to get " Hitler" OUT!
ROCK THE VOTE baby, it's your country!
mammad
by Anonym7 (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:16 PM PDTMammad, if one of the liberals win, and we have a virtual party in iranian.com, will you drink some good virtual champaign with us?
Just a minor correction
by capt_ayhab on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:16 PM PDTJust a minor correction:
People did NOT vote for Hitler.
On January 1933 Adolf Hitler was APPOINTED chancellor of Germany by Hindenburg, who had made Germany de facto conservative-nationalist dictatorship state between 1925 and 1930.
-YT
Midwesty
by Mammad on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:34 PM PDTAhmadinejad's terrible performance on the economy, as well as cultural affairs, is well-documented and need not be repeated here.
My views as a critic of the U.S. foreign policy, its blind support for Israel, and as a defender of Iran's fundamental and legal rights to the development of the complete cycle for nuclear fuel are well known, and have been expressed on numerous occasions. I have done that even during the past four years when Ahmadinejad has been the president.
But, Ahmadinejad's senseless denial of the Holocaust and then organizing a conference in Tehran on the subject, and his senseless rhetoric on Israel without paying any attention to what that does to Iran's image in the world - the ONLY reasons for the illegal referral of Iran's nuclear dossier to the UN Security Council and then issuing illegal Resolutions against Iran - cannot be defended. I reject the view that he saved Iran from Bush.
Although Ahmadinejad was elected by vote rigging in the first round of the 2005 elections, I have not questioned his election within the context of Iranian elections. What I did question was its wisdom. The population in general did not know about him in depth. People like me who have been in politics for at least 35 years and knew the views of his main supporters knew better.
Mammad
Parham
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:30 PM PDTSo, because of Khatami, lets give Iran to Ahamdinejad again? Good logic. Look forward, not backwards all the time. Have some hope for a better future. Without hope, life is not really worth living. People become bitter that way...you're not bitter, are you?
ROCK THE VOTE!
Big Boy
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:19 PM PDTBecause based on what I saw from Khatami, if the same things happen all over again, which is the most likely scenario, because the SYSTEM is set that way, you WILL be deceived.
And what about Pahlavi? FYI, Pahlavi got it up his sleeve for that, remember?
Anonymous8
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:15 PM PDTDo you really need a reply for that? It just means that people can do many stupid things with the tool of voting. It doesn't mean if they're in majority that they did the right thing. Again and again, do you remember 30 years ago, in Iran?
Moussavi
by FYI (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:15 PM PDT//www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9UTF2lzXNQ&feature
Parham
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:12 PM PDTWhy would you hope that Mousavi "screws" me? Why won't you hope that Mousavi actually helps create a better future for Iran and Iranians? Have you become that jaded and bitter that you can't even "hope" for a better Iran? It is sad to see what has happened to you and the rest of the fading anti-Iran minority exiles.
ROCK THE VOTE!
p.s. how many did Pahlavi torture and murder?
Mammad
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:11 PM PDTBoth are dictatorships. What difference if a hundred thousand have been killed or a few million? They both kill. Let's just not let it get to the million(s). You don't know what the future will bring, do you?
Big Boy
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:06 PM PDTI hope when Mousavi turns around and screws you, you'll have the same enthusiasm in standing up to him. Because then, it WON'T be people like me who'll come to your rescue.
No too fast Mammad
by Midwesty on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:04 PM PDTIf it wasn't for Ahmadi's clinching fists against neocons, we had to export dirt to Iran now. Not too fast. On one hand you admire Iranian's decision for choosing Mousavi on the other hand you insult them for choosing Ahmadi four years ago. It was a different time back then so it needed a different person. Let's not have short memories. Ahmadi gave rise to Obama by standing against Neocons. It is not just by accident that Obama wants to talk to Iran.
"people voted for hitler" means no election is ever valid
by Anonymous8 (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:55 AM PDTwhy does this stupid point always come up when there are no real arguments to be made?
Hitler was also VERY secular and nationalist. he hated religion. he preferred ancient aryan hertiage of his country. he highly valued science, industrialism and technological progress.
will parham please reject these values too? if not, then PLEASE get a life!
Parham
by Mammad on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:44 AM PDTI respect you, your intelligence, and your polite tone. It is not necessary to agree about everything.
My point was, comparing the huge crowds of young, educated, 21st century Iranians to the German population of 1932-33 is neither appropriate nor fair.
At the same time, making an analogy between the IRI - as bad as it has been - and the Nazi regime that killed 6 million Jews and started WW II that killed 47 million and brought about incredible destruction to most of the world is utterly nonsense.
This is the type of propaganda that Israel and its supporters have been making, which a seemingly nice and intelligent man like you should not fall for. But, if it is your opinion, then it is.
Mammad
Rosie
by Mammad on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:35 AM PDTIndeed, Ayatollah Khamanei is surrounded by the Sepaah. They hide behind him to give what they do "legitimacy." Just read the threats that Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, political director of the Sepaah, made against Mousavi yesterday.
But at the same time the Sepaah wants to purge the clerics. You see, Ahmadinejad and his supporters have been attacking everyone from day 1, but most importantly some of the most important clerics in the power structure. Ayatollah Khamanei used the Basij and Sepaah to push the reformists back, but now the military-security establishment wants to control everything.
Only two days after Ahmadinejad won in 2005, in a radio interview I predicted that Ahmadinejad will create deep fractures among the clerics in particular and the conservative camp in general, his economics will be disaster, and his foreign policy - if it can be called that - will be extremely dangerous to Iran. At that time, I was attacked even by some supposedly progressives because I had made the predictions only 2 days afterwards about a relatively unknown character.
My response at that time was that, all one has to look at is who supports this man, what their ideology is, what their view of the world is, etc. He is a member and believer in Hojatiyeh. It matters little, if any, that Ahmadinejad was (at that time) relatively unknown.
Every single prediction turned out to be true. I am thrilled that a great majority of Iranians living in Iran can agree on at least one thing: Removing the Ahmadinejad cancer from Iran's political scene. If done, it will also weaken the group that supports him in the military/security/intelligence establishments. Therefore, it will be benefitial to Iran. This is being made possible by PARTICIPATING in the elections not by REJECTING it.
For those who may be interested in the complete coverage of the elections, the history of various groups and the candidates, etc., I suggest to read my multiple-part articles and several other pieces, particularly on Rafsanjani letter to Ayatollah Khamenei and its aftermath (they are all in English), on
//Tehranbureau.com/
Mammad
Mammad
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:26 AM PDTOddly enough when Iranians are voting to get the dictator Ahmadinejad out, Parham compares that to Nazi Germany and getting Hitler IN.
Parham you seem to have you examples all confused. They are voting FOR freedom and voting the "Nazi" OUT, not in.
ROCK THE VOTE.
Parham
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:23 AM PDTWhy do you hate Iran so much? Why do you not want anything good for Iranians inside Iran? Why do you want them to constantly suffer? WHY?
ROCK THE VOTE baby! Just do it.
Mammad
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:09 AM PDTYes, Third Reich got thrown into power that way.
Hitler was an extremely popular man.
What's your point?
Have I ever said people are indifferent? I don't get you sometimes Mammad.
voter
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:07 AM PDTOf course there are different centers of power that order the killings. Where do you see me claiming the opposite?
They just all belong to the same establishment!
BlahBlah and Big Boy (jeeeezus what names you people choose...)
by Parham on Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:03 AM PDTBlahBlah
Ever heard of the expression "khod ra be koocheye ali chap zadan"? Mousavi didn't order the mass murders, he was prime minister when they happened.
More, I have no claim as to whether I am an activist or not.
Big Boy
People voted for Obama in a DEMOCRACY not in a DICTATORSHIP! Do you know the difference?
And anyway, what's your point? Sure it will make a difference if everyone votes for Mousavi! It sure did when everyone voted for the Islamic Republic!
My prediction
by tan foroush (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:53 AM PDTMy prediction is that whoever loses will accuse the other of election fraud and unleash his un-uniformed thugs on the streets to agitate. Then whoever is the president will unleash his uniformed thugs to sarkoob the shooresh and we've been there, done that...
I'm sure it will be good for everybody and especially for the cause of IRI democracy. Everybody's already forgotten about the blood that is already on the hands of all these guys. New blood will be forgotten too, gham makhor.
Ah,.speaking.of.Mammad..
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:49 AM PDTMammad.please.look.at.NP.and.my.exchange.just.below..
Parham
by Mammad on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:44 AM PDTFirst, it was claimed by many that nothing is going in Iran. That people are indifferent. That they do not care. That they no longer want to participate in this. That the turn-out will be even smaller than 2005.
But, now, no one can deny the movement to oust Ahmadinejad, even the blindest of the blind. 70,000 people greeted Mousavi in Bandar Abbas at THREE IN THE MORNING. At least 500,000 in Tehran marched, not once but twice in two days; 120,000 in Esfahan, 60,000 in Mashhad, a huge crowd even in Sanandaj.
So, what do you say? Oh, well, 3rd Reich also got vote!! Come on.
Mammad
To Big Boy
by Kindergartener (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:42 AM PDTI am curious to know how old you are! how old are you any way?
Parhams
by voter (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:31 AM PDTSome show how little they know of infrastructure of Iran rulers or murders of 80's...
If what happened to Bazaragan, to Shriatmadari, to Ghotbzadeh, to Banisadr, to Mousavi, to even Khatami or Karoobi,
after 30 years still has not given you a hint that there are different centers of powers in Iran and the ones who are directly responsible for chain murders and all are different. If the recent debates to the point that Karoobi directly mentioned the chain murders or quickly named named Dr. Zarhra Bani Yaghoob who was killed in prison did not give you a hint. If the open divisions of recent election does not give you hint. If amending the constitution and removing the post of prime minister after Mousavi and then getting rid of Montazeri and rising Khamenei to an ayatollah and Faghih didn't give you a hint. If 20 years of Mousavi's silence didn't give you a hint.
A hint in that simplistic little mind , I doubt anything will.
Keep on with what you have been doing: NOTHING
I.know..Whatever.way.it..p.s..NP..
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:46 AM PDTgoes,.this.is.one.of.the.historic.moments.of.the.beginning.of.the.new.
millennium...not.just.for.Iran..not.just.for.Iran..
___________________
p.s.NP,.you.know,.Mammad.told.me.that.Khamenei
is.not.as.independent.as.people.say;.that.he.is.precisely.
beholden.unto.certain.elements.of.the.military...but.let's.think.
positive... let.a.smile.be.your.umbrella..