How ever you look at it, Mousavi is going to be the next president.
The only way Ahmadinejad can be re-elected is for him to gain more than 50% of the vote on Friday. That's highly unlikely, given Mousavi's rising popularity.
Here are the likely scenarios:
A) Mousavi will win more than 50% of the vote on Friday, or
B) Mousavi will get the most votes but less than 50%, followed by Ahmadinejad, Karroubi and Rezaie. In the the run-off election, the great majority of the anti-Ahmadinejad people who voted for Karroubi and Rezaie will vote for Mousavi, making him the next president.
C) Or, Ahmadinejad will gain the majority of votes but not above 50%. Mousavi will come in second, followed by Karroubi and Rezaie. In the run-off, Mousavi will top Ahmadinejad with Karroubi and Rezaie supporters switching to Mousavi.
So be prepared to deal with President Mir Hossein Mousavi for the next four years. Bebinim cheh tofehee az ab darmiyad.
Best of all rejoice the final days of the god-aweful Ahmadinejad era.
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Re.post.below;.in.which.you.state;:
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jun 11, 2009 06:31 AM PDTdisrespecting.everything.about.a president that the overwhelming majority of Iranians love..
right,.the.one.who.just.threatened.to.put.the.candidates.of.that.
teeny.weeny.little.sliver.of.a.minority.who.don't.love.him.into.jail.
for.disrespecting.him...when.he.respected.them.so.much....
--------
Actually,.I.fully.respect..and.believe.i.understand.his.base.
who.respects.him..and.why...sorry.to.disappoint,..but.i.do..
Jaleho You Sound Greek to me ;0)
by Darius Kadivar on Thu Jun 11, 2009 06:21 AM PDTSaturday Night You and Ahmadinejad Shall Dine in HELL ...
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=a44KxdCCOUk
Stay On Guard for THE EMPIRE SHALL STRIKE BACK !
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uax6UWPpfeQ
LOL
Dariush K, not at all
by Jaleho on Thu Jun 11, 2009 06:17 AM PDTAs I have said many times, I'll just respect the collecive wish of millions of Iranian, whatever it may be.
If you are curious, personally, I have said that once a "proven compromiser on Iranian nuclear rights," that is Khatami, went out in favor of Mousavi who claims to have similar nuclear policy as Ahmadinejad, I am perfectly fine with a Mousavi election. Yet, I will vote for Ahmadinejad, and I beleive that he will be re-elected overwhelmingly.
Jahanshan
by Abarmard on Thu Jun 11, 2009 06:08 AM PDTI believe that they are a lot of people in Iran that are worried about Mousavi and his soft side. Some as I understand want a strong president who stands for their international rights. Most of those people are in the smaller towns and lower income families. There are also those like some of my friends who fall in the Mousavi voters category but for their own reasons want to vote for Ahmadinejad.
The way I see the news, Mousavi supporters are more than Ahmadinejad, but I am not that certain.
Personally I will vote green tomorrow.
ROCK THE VOTE
by Big Boy on Thu Jun 11, 2009 06:00 AM PDTLeave nothing to chance! The country's future depends on it and it is your decision to make.
Cynics be gone!
Jaleho Panicking already ? ;0)
by Darius Kadivar on Thu Jun 11, 2009 05:55 AM PDTفرخزاد ودیکتاتوری آخوندی
LOL
Election is in Iran, NOT in Iranian.com!!
by Jaleho on Thu Jun 11, 2009 05:49 AM PDTDon't forget the election is happening among 70 million Iranians, a good number of whom are the youth who are proud of their culture, their religion, their power and their achievements.
This is unlike the majority of Iranians who visit Iranian.com cafe! IC crowd are typically older generation of Iranians who LOST what they had during shah, they didn't become the "elite" their mama and papa hoped them to become after a western education in a good or a shitty universty abroad, many are so ashamed of their religion, culture and their own parents that they constantly announce that they are the children of Cyrus not their own freaking muslim parents and their grandparents going back even 1400 years, they are ashamed NOT to look western, many are the types who are so full of themselves that they openly announce "70 million Iranians either don't know what democracy is, what secular is or what is good for them, BUT I DO!!" Furthermore, Iranian.com is a cafe whose owner has been openly disrespecting everything about a president that the overwhelming majority of Iranians love and elected. That part is of course fine, types of Rafsanjani papers and ALL of the "free" western media do that, you're not alone.
But, why are you so sure about decision of 70 million Iranians, so unlike your buddies now? On Iranian.com of course you're very experienced and probably would represent the values and aspirations of the people who are bitterly stuck in 30 years ago quite accurately. But for sure, you have nothing in common with millions and millions who are so proud of Iranian nuclear achievements which they attribute to Ahmadinejad's policies.
But, I am glad that the heat of election has become so contagious, partly thanks to IC fantastic coverage in detail of what goes inside Iran of which I am utterly thankful, that now even you will end up having something in common with quite a few million of Iranians who support Mousavi . That I call getting out of the death bed of a dying bitter generation, and joining the freshest strata of a rising generation.
Parham I have to agree with you
by HATEIRI on Thu Jun 11, 2009 05:39 AM PDTI am so glad that people like you remeber these murderers and criminals.
They used to pull out students out of universities of suspicions of anti government activities and exceute them the next day and send the decapitated bodies in the black garbage bags to their parents.
60%-75% of Iran's army officers from high to lower rank were executed during Mr. Mousavis administration.
10 thousand supporters of Mujahedin or other anti government supporters were executed in one day.
So some people keep saying no you have no other choice or option and some are even trying to force upon you their corrupt and primitive ideology without considering the fact that these people are criminals.
They have killed Iranians at mass scale.
FREE IRAN
CHEERS
Thank.you,.KS..JY.for.finally.explaining.it.
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jun 11, 2009 07:32 AM PDTall.to.me..It.took.me.two.long.years.but.I.think.I.got.it.now..and.all.
it.took.was.one.tiny.little.election. and.a.broken.space.bar! _________________-
Either :
a).There will be real change and real reform when there is a new system of government in place'
or..
b).There.will.be.a.new.system.of.government.in.place.when.there.is.
real.change.and.reform
___________________________
So.that's.what.the.whole.thing.was.about.all.this.time..Now.I.finally.
understand.all.you.people...You're.like.a...chicken/egg.kind.of.
thing,. only.without.the.c).option,.both.
***
Aah,.motshkeram!..Kheili.khoob,.Rosie-jan!.Sad.afarin!. ________________________
(I'm.sorry,.dear.Moderator,.really,.I.am.,.but.it.was.just.too.funny..
Well,.I.can.go.in.peace.now,...with.my.afarines.and.my.new.'look') .
lol
To Parham
by Mansour F. (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 05:20 AM PDTYou said earlier "But concerning your comment about Iranians' desire to have a secular, democratic state, I should say after this, I'm not so sure that's what they want anymore. Actually, I'm even wondering if they know what "secular" or "democracy" even mean."
Parham jaan, I am with you on this! but you should realize that they do not know what "secular" means or what "democracy" is simply because they have never been exposed to it!! their only window and opening to the outside world is through their Satellite dish and those God awful LA based Persian tvs! It is very hard for them to travel outside Iran, even to Turkey which does not require entry visa, besides most of them are financially constrained!
All in all, it seems to me that the new generation in Iran nowadays are pretty shallow! they don't care much about anything but to have fun, that's it! There are no youth clubs, no discos, nothing where these youngsters, boys and girls, can gather, get to know each other and mingle freely in Iran under mullahs!
They seem to have had their fun freely minlging and flirting with the opposite sex during the last two weeks, most probably pocketed some money "campaigning" for Moussavi and others, and now they've gone back to their unemployed wretched existence.
On the other hand, I agree that it is natural for young folks in their age group to only want to focus on FUN but look at JJ! Although he had a privileged life under the Shah and there did not seem to be anything missing in his life (except some excitement) back then, while only in his teens, he turned into a full fledged hardcore revolutionary like Ernesto CheGuevara, grew beard, changed his name to an Islamic Arabic name, moved to Iran and fought for "Islam"! lol!
Do not count your chickens
by Alborzi (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 05:04 AM PDTIran's politics is MUCH more complicated. Revolutionary guards have warned, they will not tolerate
lawlessness (i.e. a coup if Mousavi wins) and there is always the possibility of rigging the election by Ahmadinejad, he used to be part of Revolutionary guards.
Also Mousavi could be assassinated, essentially the next 6 month is going to be VERY VERY interesting times for Iran.
Here is the likely scenario
by Farah Rusta on Thu Jun 11, 2009 04:49 AM PDTDo I hear the rumble of Israeli F-16s?
FR
FYI/An Alternative View By DR. Bakhtiar on Fair Elections (1990)
by Darius Kadivar on Thu Jun 11, 2009 04:43 AM PDTBakhtiar on a Future Constitution to be drafted after Regime Change and the conditions for a Free and Fair Elections on the future democratic state of choice :
//www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNBFTWXz5_Q&feature=related
He also mentions Rafsanjani, and what the Role of the West should be in relation to the regime.
5 august 1989, Hamburg
"Iran Harguez Nakhahad Mord" - Shahpour Bakhtiar
My Opinion Too,
DK
Parham..
by Anonymous1212 (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 04:17 AM PDTHow do you know Moussavi ordered the mass killing of those people? You were there?
aagha manouchehr
by KouroshS on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:49 AM PDTPlease don't take my comments out of context.
We don't have to do a referendum on all issues all day, that is a mere exaggeration and certainly not my point, But it would do us a lot of good to conduct a survey and a poll, to get the general idea of how people feel towards this regime. Participating in an election that has been designed and engineered by the IRI, barely qualifies as a way to gauge progress within our society and amongst our poeple, that most of our friends who encourage to vote, claimed to have taken place.
Javad jan
by KouroshS on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:44 AM PDTIt is qquite interesting that you think that your approach is pragmatic! I am not suggesting for a referendum to take place right away, i am just saying let us find out how people really feel about this regime and do not make the wrong conclusions based onn the jubilations that we see on the streets. I hear reports that a lot of them are there to just have a good time and have no political agenda, and do not necessarily support Mousavi, and there really is no way anyone can deny that. You speak about patience and evolution. How can you evolutionize a dictatorship? You say a "drastic change" is not happening fast enough, and we may not even be around when it happens!!! Is it some Idealsitic mentality or do you actually think it will happen? Sounds to me Like a little fairy tale.
Making strides... acheiving a little...In what specifically defined context? Socially? economically? In civic matters? In what??? And you think we can take small and effective steps under the watchful eyes of the basijis and Khate-emamis, to which mr. mousavi himself belongs ?
You say that
""I believe that each time people show the Supreme Leader that they don't really respect him and his preferences as their leader, Iran takes another step toward its destiny of a better future""
A future that this same leader or a hand-picked successor will stll be there at the top! so what has changed? Participating in an election in which even a supposed reformist constantly makes references to Imam khomeini, to whom mr. khamenei has so much "eradat", and talks about his memories in meetings that they had with him in the beginning of the revolution, in my view, at least, hardly constitutes sending any kind of message to anyone, let alone the Leader. You really don't think that the leader can manipulate and effectively take the power out of the hands of the president?
Of course iran has changed. So has the rest of the world. It happens everyday. There will be real change and real reform, when there is a new system of government in place. I do respect those Kids and young people on the street, But I do not belive for a second that they are making better decisions than their parents, because they were/and are being made under the same conditions as 30 years ago.
FYI/Why Crisis is Good : Azar Nafisi (could be applied to Iran)
by Darius Kadivar on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:37 AM PDTIts not about Obama or Bush or McCain or Sarah Palin, no more than it is about Moussavi, Ahmadinejad, Rezaei or Karroubi ...
THE REPUBLIC OF IMAGINATION IN THE EMPIRE OF DREAMS ! ...
KouroshS
by Javad Yassari on Thu Jun 11, 2009 01:05 AM PDTThank you for the question.
My approach to the issue is quite pragmatic. How do you propose the refrendum to take place under the turbaned leader? Will he do it of his own free will tomorrow? The only way to avoid bloodshed and to achieve change through evolution is to have patience and take things one step at a time. I know we get impatient because a drastic change isn't happening fast enough, or it appears that it might not happen in our lifetimes at all. But the Iranian society has made strides. It has changed. It has achieved quite a bit right under the noses of those ruthless rulers of Iran. The Iranian nation need time to take those small steps.
I believe that each time people show the Supreme Leader that they don't really respect him and his preferences as their leader, Iran takes another step toward its destiny of a better future. Election times provide the most peaceful way for that confrontation for the Iranian nation. Boycotting the elections takes away an important chance to send that message. Participating in elections and voting for the "unfavored" candidate uses it for all its worth.
Iran has changed and Iranians have changed a lot. The trend will continue whether those who have never voted vote this time or not. It is inevitable and necessary. However, the change or reform must come from within. I believe all those young people on the street are demonstrating their wish for that change in the most peaceful ways of all. We need to see that and respect them for making better decisions than their parents did.
Kurush Jaan;
by Manoucher Avaznia on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:49 AM PDTWhich nation has done what you recommend? At the time of Banee Sadr something like that was proposed; and it did not stick. If we put the basis upon something like that, we have do do one referendum every day on every single issue. Nowhere on the face of this Earth they do this.
Javad Yassari
by KouroshS on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:20 AM PDTHow can a BETTER future be acheived under an strictly islamic regime, even with a reformet in charge? How do you define the word Better? Let's say that we have totally forgotten about any form of Invasion and are focusing on making changes from within. How can these changes take place , this evolution you are talking about with a Turban-wearing Leader standing watch and his basiji followers? How can we evolutionize something that refuses to be evolved?
Accepting that IRI is the ruling power in charge, does and should not mean that iranians should do their utmost to prolong its existence, so this " is ruling iran now" will be extented for another, Oh gee i don't know, 30 years? There is no such thing as "pride" in voting under a dictatorship.
Why not holding a referendum or even conducting a simple poll to see what people think and really want and to see whether people want the IRI to stay in power or not, even after thirty years?
I am with you JJ.
by Anonymous iranian (not verified) on Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:11 AM PDTI think Mousavi would be our next "ineffective" president.If I would to vote I would vote for Mousavi,because he does not were a turbine and I am tired of Mahmoud rethoricts and Obama wants to makes peace with the world too.
Why Ahmadinejad will win again...
by Kurush (not verified) on Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:30 PM PDTIn any election with so many candidates running, none will gain the clear majority. Most likely the winner of the first round will be in the high 30% or low 40% at best. The votes cast for Rezai will not be cast for Moussavi for the simple reason that both Ahmadinejad & Rezai draw from the same segments of the electorate. Karoubi's supporters are definitely not in the same class as those of Moussavi's, thus in the runoff his supporters will vote for Ahamdinejad. Neither Rezai, nor Karoubi has the protest vote which might be expected to switch to Moussavi in the run-off. In short, in the runoff Moussavi will not have the advantage. It is more likely that Moussavi might be the winner of the first round for the simple fact that Ahamdinejad's potential supporters are split but will coalesce to support Mr A in a runoff. Ahmainejad has been campaigning for months in Shaesrestans & shahrha, he probably does not count on Tehran as his main power base.
The ultimate issue is of course the outcome of policy not centered on the West but trade & friendship with the East, secondly liberation of Iraq & Afghanistan from the crusading jackboots of the West & American thugs; thirdly stockpiling nuclear warheads to remind the West that Iran means business & not to be toyed with. Ahmainejad has the experience and the momentum.. Moussavi is of course another Khatemi with 'dialogue of nations' crap mentality which will come to grief as did Khatemi's. Americans are desperate for a Iranian leader that would rubberstamp, or be hoodwinked into assenting to the occupatins of Iraq & Afghanistan & the inevitable military bases. Ahmadinejad has been the most vociferous opponent of the occupations & farsightedly will continue the attrition to force the Western thungs out of the ME. If you love Iran vote for Mr A.
JJ;
by Manoucher Avaznia on Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:15 PM PDTI have serious doubts about Mousavee, as he was the prime minister at the time of the war and post revolutionary Iran when a vast majority of Iranians who made sacrifices in the war fronts were deprived of basic needs of everyday life. Mousavee is not the man who has understood the pain of the masses of Iranians whether country people or poor city-dwellers, however he was still giving five hundred dollars in government prices of seven Toomans per dollar to those who travelled out of the country. What was the percentage of those people to the masses who fought in the front lines of war is a good question. I still remember the story of shortage of medicine in Iran and its hoarding by the influencial trends in the Baazaar that he did absolutley nothing to put an end to it. In foreign policy, I would say, he is not the person to take decisive actions and to represent us as a nation. He lacks the heart to stand against intenrational gholdoree which is a common phonomenon in international relations and takes a heavy price from us as a nation. From my point of view, he is the worst choice for presidency for Iranians. If there is a man to withstand these matters, it is Ahmadeenezhaad.
With respect
Dear JJ
by Javad Yassari on Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:38 PM PDTI think unless they try to pull something stupid, like using those 2.6 million extra ballot sheets they just printed in the Ministry of Interior in Tehran, the winner is Mousavi.
The young people in Tehran and big cities have already spent the past week on the streets over night. If Mousavi wins, on the day after the elections there might be a huge nationwide party which will not sit too well with Ahmadinejad supporters and basij. If Ahmadinejad is announced as the winner, there will be a huge protest gathering. Either way, there will be major unrest in Iran over the coming days unless the Supreme Leader gets the message and lets the people's vote stand, calling home his dogs.
Nothing fundamentally different will change in the overall scheme of things, some tone changes and some minor reforms perhaps, but the young nation of Iran would submit and stand by their message to the Supreme Leader again--given half a chance, we will do the exact opposite of what you tell us to do.
This is no revolution, but it is another millimetric step in Iran's evolution toward a better future. Real, sustainable, and constructive change cannot be achieved through foreign intervention and revolutions, but through evolution. This will be considered another important step in contemporary Iranian history.
Obviously, it hasn't happened in 30 years, but do you suppose that some Iranians might possibly start accepting the fact that this is the government that is ruling Iran now? Or would we be looking at old naysayers 10 years from now, who continue to pride themselves in having never voted for anything under the Islamic Republic of Iran?
Too Much Tequila Makes JJ Optimistic!
by eroonman on Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:25 PM PDTAlthough I love you for your enthusiasm, I just don't see how. The relatively few Tehroonis, who are elitists compared with the khaki Shahrestanis and Jonoob Shahris who hold more than hands to support Ahmadinejad, will not be enough to overthrow Ahmdinejad. Additionally, no Iranian President has failed to win both terms. My money (unfortunately) is on Mahmoud to pull a Richard Nixon. A bet I am all too willing to lose.
Balourchian.ugliest.face..
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:25 PM PDTmaybe.that's.why.he.sat.there.painting.all.these.years.
Because.he.couldn't.stand.to.look.himself.in.the.mirror.
Parham,.please.build.your.abstentionist.
by rosie is roxy is roshan on Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:19 PM PDTcoalition..it.will.be.a.reminder.and.an.inspiration.to.the.people.of.the.
end.goal..Be.just.a.little.patient,.will.you.and.stop.underestimating.
your.own.people..They.know.a.helluva.lot..Stop.being.so.damn.dour.
Iran,can,.must.and .will.lead.the.way!.They.have.no.other.choice.
They.get.it.,.they.get.it..Your.generation.made.it.so.Don't.you.get.it?
You.do.your.job.for.tomorrow.and.let.them.do.their.job.for.today..If.you.
would.only.stop.grumbling.and.grousing,.tomorrow.might.come.
sooner.than.you.think. Isn't.there.SOMETHING.better.than.bitter?
Jahanshah
by Parham on Wed Jun 10, 2009 09:45 PM PDTI'd still be interested to know how you stack up the "bads" of Ahmadinejad against those of Mousavi (and other candidates), especially if one has the mass murder in his dossier as well. But concerning your comment about Iranians' desire to have a secular, democratic state, I should say after this, I'm not so sure that's what they want anymore. Actually, I'm even wondering if they know what "secular" or "democracy" even mean.
Iranians are having a "neemcheh" revolution out of election.
by Anahid Hojjati on Wed Jun 10, 2009 09:34 PM PDTYes, Ahmadinejad will not be president any more. I just have to say Iranian people were smart this time. They are having a "neemcheh" revolution out of this election.
dear JJ
by Souri on Wed Jun 10, 2009 09:30 PM PDT"But Ahmadinjead is the worst among the four."
Ahmadinejad did not kill so many Iranian, Mousavi did. People want Mousavi only because his international face present better than Ahmadinejad, but they don't seem to be concerned by the internal problems. Mousavi is tightly attached to the most corrupted political face of Iran, Hashemi Rafsanjani.
By the way, I still didn't get why his wife changed her name from Zohreh Kazemi to Zahra Rahnavard? Any idea anyone?