The threat is still there

Interview with Stephen Kinzer


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The threat is still there
by Lalé Shahparaki Welsh
18-Feb-2008
 

I conducted this interview with Stephen Kinzer in early February, before I heard him speak at the San Francisco book signing last week at Grace Cathedral (Feb. 11th. 08). His next talk and book-signing will be on Tuesday Feb. 19th in Chicago (details).

Having read his book, "All The Shah's Men" a few years back, my interest in interviewing Mr. Kinzer was at first only due to his literary contribution to our community, and given that he was embarking on a book tour to promote his new book, "Overthrow", I felt he'd be more open to an interview.

I was right. Turned out, he also wanted to promote a short video that encapsulated the essence of the book tour as well as to get people to support H.R. 5056, an initiative get Congressional representatives to push for diplomacy with Iran. It all sounded benign enough, and I thought it was a subject that would interest Iranians.

That video ran on Iranian.com last week [Part 1][Part 2][Patrt 3][Part 4]

, and people were interested! The video won all kinds of awards on Youtube, and had tens of thousands of visitors in one day. However, what I found curious was the venom which so many people were spewing in favor of war with Iran. This man who has researched so much about Iran to string together facts and retell our story cohesively, has become our unwitting poster boy for peace, and yet curiously, not everyone agrees with his "agenda". It certainly begs the questions; why? Who stands to benefit from moving ahead with war? Who are these people who want war?

While not all these questions were asked or answered (hindsight is 20:20) here is what he does tell us:

All the Shah’s Men exposes the details of how the US and the UK overthrew a functioning democracy in Iran, and contrived a dictatorship less than 60 years ago. Why do you think voters have been so slow to question the integrity of the current war to “spread democracy”?

Many Americans are compassionate by nature. They respond positively when their leaders call upon them to support a cause that will spread freedom and prosperity. At the same time, many Americans are ill-informed about the realities of life in other countries, and fail to challenge the view that we intervene abroad for motives other than spreading democracy. The press often serves as a catalyst in this process by becoming a cheerleader for intervention, with the assumption that it is acting on behalf of “our side.”

In your experience, are most Americans aware of the history of the coup against Mossadegh? Why/How has this not been a constant and recurring theme in the news, particularly during war time?

The true story of the Mossadegh coup was all but unknown until after the 1979 revolution in Iran. Over the next couple of decades, several scholars investigated and wrote about it. “All the Shah’s Men” has sold more than 100,000 copies, so I like to think that at least that many people know about the coup.

You’re very popular among Iranians. How do Americans respond when you share the account of the coup?

Older Iranian-Americans tell me that when they told American friends about the CIA coup against Mossadegh, many couldn’t believe the story. Only now that my book has been published, they say, can they point to a written description to prove they were not making it up.

Younger people in the community tell me they knew only vaguely what had happened and were grateful for having the story laid out. Some said it helped connect them more strongly to their ancestral homeland.

Do you feel that the tide is turning?

There is no doubt that more people are aware of Mossadegh than were aware of him a few years ago. As the US has engaged in an escalating war of words and sanctions and proxy conflicts with Iran, people have become more interested in the historical background to these events.

How likely do you think war is with Iran?

I fear that this prospect is still very real. The recent National Intelligence Estimate makes it impossible for the US to hope for broad support for new sanctions on Iran. This could mean that some people consider a military strike the only remaining alternative. People in the White House might decide that Iran is a looming threat that must be contained before it can rise. Manufacturing an incident, either in Iran, Iraq or the Gulf, would be easy, and it could become a pretext for war.

Who (if anyone) stands to benefit from such a war?

The only real winner would probably be President Ahmadinejad. He is unpopular, but being the victim of an American attack would instantly propel him to the level of Defender of Islam wherever Muslims live. In every country, people rally behind their leaders when they are attacked. A US attack is the only thing that can turn Ahmeadinejad into a hero in Iran and beyond.

Obviously your message is that there are potential benefits of diplomacy over war with Iran. Can you belabor those for us, and give us your ideas of the global impact of disregarding that advice?

It is in the US interest to work for stability in the world, especially in the Middle East. A process of direct, bilateral and unconditional negotiations would allow the two countries to explore their differences peacefully. No one can know in advance whether it would succeed, but simply making the offer might set off a new dynamic in Iran and even within the Iranian government. It would send a surge of encouragement through the democratic movement in Iran. Once negotiations are underway, the two countries might find that not only are they not fated to be enemies forever, but they have many strategic interests in common.

How do you think your 22 city tour of the US will impact voters, and people in general?

We are trying to do three things: explain the reasons why attacking Iran would be a calamitous mistake; warn that such an attack could happen between now and next Jan. 20; and urge people to work actively to assure this does not happen. We have already had hundreds of people at events on the West Coast.

What specific actions, if any, are you asking people to take?

We are asking people to sign postcards supporting a bill that has been submitted to the US Congress, HR 5056, which directs the President to name a high-level envoy “for the purpose of easing tensions and normalizing relations between the United States and Iran.” Our plan is to deliver these cards to Washington next month. Every concerned American should press for passage of this bill.

It is also important to keep this issue before the American people, in the form of letters to the editor, talks to civic and professional groups, calls to radio programs and contacts with members of Congress. If concern about a US attack on Iran is seen to fade, that could make an attack more possible.

Learn more at justforeignpolicy.org


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Hezbollah Will Soon Destroy

by Anonymous== (not verified) on

Hezbollah Will Soon Destroy Israel, Says Iran Guards

February 18, 2008
Reuters
Asharq al Awsat

The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday Israel would soon be destroyed by the "hands of Hezbollah", the Lebanese group which is backed by the Islamic Republic, Fars News Agency reported. Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari made the comment in a letter to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to offer condolences after the killing of senior guerrilla commander Imad Moughniyah in a car bomb last week in Damascus. "In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous existence of Israel by the powerful and competent hands of the Hezbollah combatants," Jafari was quoted as saying.

Iran does not recognise Israel and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has often predicted the imminent demise of the Jewish state, drawing criticism from the West which fears Iran wants to make nuclear bombs that could threaten the region.

Iran denies any such nuclear ambitions, insisting its atomic work is peaceful, and Ahmadinejad has said his country is not a threat to anyone, not even Israel.

Western analysts say the Revolutionary Guards, an ideological wing of Iran's armed forces, has given military support to Hezbollah. Tehran denies this, saying it only provides moral backing to the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim group.

Moughniyah was wanted for years by the United States and Israel for planning attacks that killed hundreds. As a wanted man, he moved secretly between Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

Iran has blamed Israel for Moughniyah's killing.

"Undoubtedly the martyrdom of this sincere fighter will strengthen the determination of all revolutionary and combatant Muslims, particularly his co-combatants in confrontation with the Zionist regime," Jafari added in his letter.

The Guards were set up after the 1979 revolution in Iran to protect Iran's Islamic system. They have land, sea and air units with a separate command structure to the regular military. They have an expanding economic role, including in Iran's oil industry.

//aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=11...

Does this sound like a country who doesn't want war and wants to negotiate?


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Iran to turn over the

by jkAnonymous (not verified) on

Iran to turn over the hostage takers from 1979 to the US to face prosecution.

Good start!


programmer craig

Nazy

by programmer craig on

The road to true democracy does not pass through violence and wars.

With all due respect (and I do like and respect you) the country you live in got democracy in exactly that way!

I don't want teh US to go to war with Iran, but likewise I do not want Iran to continue with what it has been doing, partiucularly recently. You say there has been enough blood, and I agree with you, but Iran continues to be a bad actor in teh middle-east. How can Iran be made to stop meddling in Lebanon and Palestine? How can Iran be made to stop threatening Israel with destruction? How can Iran be made to stop building nuclear weappons, when I think we all know what Iran will do if and when it has nuclear weapons? Iran made a threat to provide Hezbollah with nuclear weapons in order to destroy Isreal, just today. Have you seen that?


programmer craig

WTF?

by programmer craig on

It is in the US interest to work for stability in the world, especially
in the Middle East. A process of direct, bilateral and unconditional
negotiations would allow the two countries to explore their differences
peacefully. No one can know in advance whether it would succeed, but
simply making the offer might set off a new dynamic in Iran and even
within the Iranian government. It would send a surge of encouragement
through the democratic movement in Iran. Once negotiations are
underway, the two countries might find that not only are they not fated
to be enemies forever, but they have many strategic interests in common.

This part here is completely wrong. Iran is a terrorist state and we cannot be seen "negotiating" with terrorists. The course of action this man is advocating is incredibly reckless. Maybe he should stick to being a historian, or whatever it is he does for a living.

If he really wants to avoid a war between teh US and Iran, he should be advocating in Iran for unilateral suspecinsion of uranium enrichment, for an end to Iran's support for international terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, and for Iran to turn over the hostage takers from 1979 to the US to face prosecution. That would be a start, at least. But he can't do that, can he? Because if he went to Iran and started talking like that, he'd be in Evin prison before he could say "Hold on guys, I'm on your side!" wouldn't he? And, he knows it. But yet, he still pretends as if this is a regime the US can treat as a rational and responsible diplomatic partner.

PS-I hope his treatement of Mossadeq and Ajax was more nuanced and less one sided than his treatment of current events.


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Long Live Iran, down with Monarchists and Zionists

by Irandoust (not verified) on

These two groups are Iran haters. They wish the destruction of Iran and Iranian nation. As soon as anybody starts to critcize bombing Iran or suggesting to start a dialogue with Iran these two groups, these "haters" start complaining and try discredit that person.
I like to thank Stephen Kinzer for his tireless efforts to bring peace and understanding between the two nations of Iran and United Stated. I like to thank Lalé Shahparaki Welsh for interviewng him. Mr Kinzer we are with you, we are for peace between nations.
Iran haters: Stop hating, start loving.


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IRAN is next (joke to reality)

by Badbakht (not verified) on

A1

I have to agree with you. There is a documentary out called Zeitgeist and talks about BUSH boycotting the 2008 election and launches a new war. MCCAINE has the same agenda at the same time. IRAN has been the priority since 9/11 attacks. It is four times larger than IRAQ in landmass and carries the world's third largest oil reserves in the world. Who comes to power next? My guess is Prince Reza Pahlavi because he could protect our interests in the Gulf.


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too much venom

by don'thaveacow (not verified) on

Sad to see a real discussion turn into character assasination and name calling from those who don't even have the gumption to have a real name. Iran has to be freed at any cost? well I guess as long as your lazy asses are here, why not? You won't be hurt or anyone you know. It is easy to sit here and say: "lengesh kon". and then go to Iran to "save the country" after the dust has settled, which won't happen in your lifetime.


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The Mosadeq Sisters

by Synonymous Anonymous (not verified) on

Lalé Shahparaki Welsh, Soraya Sapahpour Ulrich, and Fariba Amini Fenderdick are The Mosadeq sisters. These three unemployed women like to create an Imam out of an old unwanted, incomptenet, and treasonous Qajar Prince called Muhammad Mosadeq. Have we got enough Imams in our history that you three want to add another one!?


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Mr. Kinser should not have

by Anonymous3 (not verified) on

Mr. Kinser should not have aligned himself with the Iranian lobby. At this point your arguments are hollow and divorced from reality or any good intentions for the Iranian people. You're only concerned about the short-term interest of your "realist" friends (Baker et al) and their benficiaries in the oil companies. As you should be, you're not Iranian and couldn't care less about the polight of Iranian. You won't mind the mullahs reign of terror as long as they are friendly to US, eh?

Kinser is a fiction writer
by Anonymous3 (not verified) on Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:43 AM CST

Kinser is a fiction writer (using anectodes as facts and using agenda-driven anonymous sources) who had to become journalist to get paid. He has no credibility as a scholar. Where is his book on Iran prior to Pahlavis? Where is his book on History of Clergies iron grip on economic and social power on Iran for the past 1000 years before Pahlavis stripped them of their undeserved power?

Journalist become journalist not just because they want to inform the public, not just factually but philosophically. They demand not merely that their "facts" be accepted without question (though a great many of those are in fact highly questionable), but their judgment and worldview be uncritically accepted as well. They want us not just to take their word as regards their somewhat dubious area of expertise -- reportage of facts -- but they want us to also accept their take, their spin, their belief in how the world works-- and how it should work.

All of these arguments about the need for reporters to report facts are dishonest. Journalist become journalist to shape (and mislead) public opinion in ways they find best for the public good. These people did not get into journalism, after all, to report on 3M's quarterly earnings advisory. They got into journalism to change things in their own worldview.
leveraging their entirely-unrelated qualifications to collect and disseminate raw information into a role they actually desire and feel they are worthy of-- a certified, credentialed priesthood of general wisdom, weighing in expertly on matters of politics, scientific and technological ethical dilemmas, foreign policy and of course military strategy, etc. They conceive themselves as Generic Universal Omniscient All-In-One Experts Without Portfolio, a highly-trained Vanguard of Information which is especially well-equipped to tell the public not only what the facts are, but which facts are important and which should be ignored entirely due to their capacity to "mislead" less highly-trained citizens, and what the public should think of such facts and what conclusions they should draw from them.

No one -- no one -- ever got into the media to report on local car collisions or new and exciting federal farm subsidies.

What they got into the media to do was to tell people how and what to think, and its that prerogative of the Intellectual Aristocracy, and not the unglamorous business of information collection, collation, and dissemination, that they're crying about losing.

Note that they do not dare actually state their belief that they are specially qualified to do the thinking for the American public. They can't say such a thing. The public would laugh at their presumption -- some idiots went to a one year finishing school (and not a particularly academically demanding one besides) and now they have the special privilege of deciding what the public should think about each and every issue?

The rest of don't give a whit how steeply-discounted their dubious expertise is offered -- we didn't subcontract our thinking to them and it will be an unseasonably cold day in hell when America complies with their demands to concede that they alone are capable of doing the intellectual work of democratic governance.

And seriously? Not to harp on this, but really, guys. It's a frigging three semester degree of recent invention and dubious academic rigor. Get over yourselves already, for the love of all that's holy. You're embarrassing yourselves.

You know what you call a guy who couldn't get into med school?

Dentist.

You know what you call a guy who couldn't get into dental school?

Journalist.

I'm sorry, but it's about time you collectively took a more realistic look at yourselves and your ranking in the intellectual/academic pecking order. Graduates of the Kennedy School of Government are dime a dozen in DC, but every single one of them -- every single one -- has more policy-wonkery training and much better policy-analysis credentials than you.

//ace.mu.nu/archives/237750.php


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There is absolutely no

by sickoflies (not verified) on

There is absolutely no chance of bombing Iran. Kinser et al are just making money by fearmongering, how else is he going to sell his books? They have made the anti-war momvement into a racket...

If the United States decides to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, Israel may not accede. For the United States, Iranian nuclear capability is a big problem but by no means an existential threat. By contrast, Israel has to worry that Iran will supplement the hundreds of millions of dollars it spends each year to arm those fighting to wipe Israel off the map (Hamas and Hezbollah) with nuclear threats aimed at the same purpose.

If Israel decides to use force on its own, that would have many disadvantages for U.S. interests. An Israeli strike would convert a global issue about Iran's failure to comply with its obligations under international treaties into an Iranian-Israeli dispute, where many around the world would automatically take sides against Israel.

An Israeli strike could engender such international criticism that Iran would be confident it can rebuild without fearing international disapproval, much less a second round of strikes. Many around the world would assume that Washington gave Israel permission, if not assistance, so the United States would face much the same reaction as if it had carried out a raid itself. That could mean vicious Iranian responses against U.S. interests.

If Israel acts against the wishes of the United States, the worst of all situations would be created if it does the job poorly. In such a case, the threat from Iran's nuclear program would be magnified, and the U.S.-Israel alliance would be damaged. Unfortunately, this case is distinctly possible. This makes it all the more urgent that we reinforce diplomacy with tough sanctions and close international coordination at the highest levels to maximize the chances, admittedly fading, that Iran agrees to a compromise.

Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is the author of several books on Iran.

//www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php...


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Thats the way it is

by Albirzi (not verified) on

I remember after the revolution in Iran, the Iranian media was complaining about torture (that was happening in Iran) and Khomeini's response was that the west will do the same if it has to. At the time, I was thinking the guy does not realize the courts and all the checks and balances make it impossible. In fact Khomeini was right and these guys did torture and the stuff in Abu Gharib was not an IRI plot. Its not right to apply your liberal wishful ideas to these guys, even if you forget about Mossadegh, history of the world is full of when an undemocratic act was done in Cambodia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Palestine and South America.


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Predictable

by Anonymous-today (not verified) on

Let's see how many "posters" will call Kinzer an agent of the IRI. One moron has already suggested a total war against Iran. he / she wants to liberate Iran even if it takes every Iranian and every standing building in Iran. I wish these people would take their lilly white asses to Iran, live there then ask for shock and awe against the Mullas.


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yet another misguided liberal

by MRX1 (not verified) on

who thinks by "talking and negotiating" problems can be resolved! talk with who and about what/ with antari nejad, rafsenjani, or khameni or sepah. only god knows who is in charge in Iran.....
The guy is smart though. managed to sell 100,000 of his dopey book and made a name for himself, so he can through seminars in the future and make good deal of money from public speaking while Iran continues it's path to distruction. Who knew there is money to be made in 2008, milking mossadegh name!


Nazy Kaviani

No More Wars

by Nazy Kaviani on

Thank you for your interesting interview. The world has suffered so much in the hands of warmongers and special interest groups fueling those wars. Iraq is a good example of how at least two nations can become victims to unnecessary military actions. While over a million Iraqi's have been killed and maimed post US military action, thousands of American soldiers have also died or become disabled or otherwise scarred for life as a result. Who is the winner of that war so far? It is a war that has had nothing but loss in its wake and the death toll and destruction keeps rising.

I agree that any military action on Iran will enable the Iranian government to close down what little freedom of expression and access to information exists, and will embolden them to crack down on people even harder. I believe that economic sanctions against Iran will work much more effectively over the long haul. The road to true democracy does not pass through violence and wars. It passes through cultural, social, and political growth of a nation who should reach a state in which it will not tolerate dictatorships and will stand up for its own rights. Bombs and guns don't offer freedom to a nation; books, newspapers, and information do. Even if bombs and guns were to offer democracy, I believe that no imported democracy can liberate a nation in a meaningful and sustainable form.


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John McCain must

by A1 (not verified) on

bomb the Islamic Republic.


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Who are you?

by Concerned Iranian Citizen (not verified) on

Ms. Welsh

With all due respect, who are you? Do Trita Farsi, Reza Aslan, Goli Ameri, Houshang Amir-Ahmadi and other mullah's lobbyist ring a bell? Iran must be freed at any cost soon before it is completely destroyed by Arab occupiers. Please stay out of Iran’s politics and focus on Art! Thank you.