Not too late

Iran’s leaders can show maturity by adopting a less fearful approach

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Not too late
by Niloufar Parsi
03-Jul-2009
 

The recent presidential elections turmoil in Iran, regardless of the ‘truth’ behind the events, will undoubtedly have serious ramifications for the Islamic Republic on several fronts.

Chief among these is an inevitable blow to the Islamic Regime’s legitimacy, and its regional and global standing in the eyes of Iranians, the region’s population, and that of the world at large.

Within Iran, it is clear that a major rift among the population has manifested itself both on the streets and within the political and religious elite. On the one hand, millions of Iranian women and men have confirmed their frustration with the Regime and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s presidency through street demonstrations and direct action.

On the other, the handpicked candidates who were actually allowed the privilege of participating in the presidential elections by the ‘Supreme Leader’ together with their more powerful backers behind the scenes have turned on each other in a surprisingly public and vitriolic manner.

What began as a positive and welcome show of openness in televised live debates among the candidates quickly turned into allegations of election fraud by the losing side almost as soon as the poles closed. This was swiftly followed by a fierce crackdown against public dissent – ironically, just over a week after the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square.

Implications inside Iran

While the street demonstrations have predictably fizzled out in the face of a Basiji militia onslaught, a new government headed by Mr. Ahmadinejad is likely to face enormous challenges ahead. The powerful Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, has already made his misgivings known to the President Elect. A number of deputies have also raised their voices, and it will certainly be difficult for the president-elect to establish a strong Cabinet supported by the Majles. Much less is he able to portray his presidency as one for the entire nation.

The new government will likely spend much of its time tied up in dealing with internal squabbles, which in turn would lead to a slow-down in economic and social progress. A government that is seen as being short on legitimacy will not enjoy the support of a dedicated and cooperative civil service – quite the opposite. National development planning and executive leadership are likely to be heavily compromised for the next four years.

If anything, Mr. Rafsanjani, who is the second most powerful regime figure after Mr. Khamenei, and whose integrity and power were singularly targeted by Mr. Ahmadinejad during his campaign, will ensure that internal opposition to the new government will be strong and effective. Mr. Rafsanjani’s own political and economic survival depends on it, particularly as the Supreme Leader appeared to acquiesce with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s surprise attack.

Regional consequences

On the regional level too, the Islamic Republic has dealt itself a major blow. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s standing has been compromised, as has that of the Mr. Khamenei, who has clearly failed to show impartiality in the affair.

The Islamic Republic’s winning card has been its claim to public support both inside and outside the country. But its constant flow of tears for the downtrodden Palestinians will remind many of crocodiles when it is so willing to shoot unarmed demonstrators among its own population.

Moreover, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s intransigent style and perceived Anti-Semitism is just what the doctor ordered for an isolated, extremist and increasingly desperate Israel.

The Islamic Regime’s influence among the public in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Iraq will suffer, as they have witnessed a previously respected and independent ally being so clearly unwilling to accommodate cries for greater freedom and openness at home. As the Americans and Israelis have found, a naked projection of power devoid of any moral standing does not go down well with the region’s population.

The region’s foremost democracy, Turkey, will have little incentive for being associated with the Islamic Regime’s new president-elect for the next four years at least. If anything, Turkey’s bid for regional leadership has been boosted by the Islamic Republic’s own goal in the game.

Iran’s plans for leading the drive toward enhanced regional economic cooperation and development, and her hitherto successful attempts at greater influence in Central Asia and among member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council would be hindered by internal friction.

In the eyes of the world

In the global arena too, Mr. Ahmadinejad is unlikely to experience the divine halo over himself at the UN General Assembly any longer. Thanks to Twitter, Facebook, You Tube and the Iranians’ love for the Internet, Mr. Khamenei will not any longer be able to boast about Iran’s popular Islamic Revolution without sounding overtly Orwellian, or, more pertinently, Shah-like. The distance between reality and the theocracy’s claims has grown significantly.

The Islamic Republic’s relations with democratic emerging powerhouses like India and Brazil have been jeopardized too, and Mr. Chavez’ unequivocal and rather rash support for Mr. Ahmadinejad only serves to isolate him more quickly.

In the current climate of global economic uncertainty and a general consensus for the need for solutions, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s presidency would lower Iran’s place on the list of invitees to important forums. This has already manifested itself in the case of the G8’s recent withdrawal of invitation to the Iranian Foreign Minister to discuss Afghanistan at last weekend’s meeting in Trieste.

In terms of nuclear negotiations, Mr. Ahmadinejad is a spent force. Though highly useful in this regard in the past against a belligerent Bush administration, his confrontational approach only weakens Iran’s stance at a time when the US has emerged as a willing partner for peace.

Along with the IAEA’s findings and recommendations together with known assessments by US intelligence services, most powers are already ready to live with Iran having nuclear technology so long as international bodies monitor this. This has also been Iran’s consistent position on the matter since the dispute began.

Therefore, Iran has no need for an antagonistic approach any longer, and the language of Mr. Ahmadinejad will only undermine the Islamic Regime’s position over the coming period. His continuing leadership will ironically bolster the position of those seeking stronger sanctions and economic isolation of the Islamic Regime.

As the rhetorical confrontation between Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Obama continues to escalate, the Islamic Regime appears to have lost a valuable opportunity to grow in stature and even look like the ‘winner’ while at the same time ending decades of international isolation imposed by the West. Despite claims to the contrary, the Iranian economy is in desperate need of foreign investment.

It has also foregone the chance to lead the ‘Islamic world’ as a beacon of independence, tolerance and democracy in a new world order brought on by the global economic crisis. For now, Iran’s ship appears to be heading back toward more isolated and turbulent waters.

Nevertheless, the window of opportunity still remains open for Iran’s leaders to show maturity and foresight by adopting a softer, more conciliatory and less fearful approach. This was evident among the American public and elite in their latest elections. Iran’s leaders too need to recognize that times have changed.

Concessions to the opposition at this crucial juncture would elevate the leadership’s position and palatability both at home and abroad. Freedom of the press; removing repressive social and cultural restrictions, particularly on women; ceasing the jingoistic and self-defeating death chants against other countries; and disarming and disbanding the fascistic Basiji militias are among relatively simple and effective measures that could be taken.

The Islamic Republic needs to seize the moment to respond to Iranians and the wider world before it traps itself into becoming the Islamic Republic of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran – an isolated military dictatorship akin to North Korea or Myanmar.

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more from Niloufar Parsi
 
Niloufar Parsi

Irandokht jan, thanks :)

by Niloufar Parsi on

manam chesham ab nemikhore!

pretty much the only reform option left is to get rid of khamenei. if the military stand by him, however, then there is no reform option. unpredictable times ahead...

Peace


IRANdokht

Great analysis Niloufar jan!

by IRANdokht on

I am not sure if the ruling government would back down, especially after hearing about all the recent news that Khamenei's son is taking charge of Bassij, the high number of political prisoners and the harsher treatment of the demonstrators. I have a hard time believing that akhounds can compromise over power: they couldn't compromise over who gets the first helping of zershk polo ba morgh before the revolution, nevermind the power over a whole country. What they're doing is pushing the movement underground and allowing it to become more political. The demonstrations were about people being frustrated and disrespected, but the continuation of the movement will become more aggressive, disciplined and anti-government. 

 

Thought you might like to see a new video and analysis of what's happening to this movement. 

IRANdokht


Bijan A M

Dariush

by Bijan A M on

Thank you for being so observant. I really enjoyed reading it as it so closely expressed my feelings and emotions. We need leaders like this artist to keep the movement alive.

I have nothing against support for reformists, as long as it is a tactical move to more effectively and with less bloodshed reach the ultimate goal, elimination of theocracy. Even under the rule of reformists we need to remain vigilant and never lose our sight of the ultimate goal. My outburst against Niloufar’s article is because I feel it is selling false hope. Thanks again for being so considerate.

گر شعله فرو ريزد، بشتاب و مينديش

 ور تيغ فرو بارد، اى سينه سپر شو

 خاكِ پدران است كه دستِ دگران است

 هان اى پسرم، خانه نگهدارِ پدر شو

 ديوارِ مصيبت كده ىِ حوصله بشكن

 شرم آيدم از اين همه صبرِ تو، ظفر شو


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Bijan A M

by Dariush (not verified) on

I decided to post something that you might enjoy reading.

پس از اعتراض استاد شجریان به صدا و سیما و حمایت ایشان از جنبش سبز ، استاد شهرام ناظری نیز کاری منتشر نشده از خودشان را به نام "ایران کهن" در یوتیوب قرار دادند و به این ترتیب حمایت خودشان را از جنبش سبز اعلام کردند . فایل صوتی این تصنیف به صورت ام پی تری و با حجم یک مگابایت در این نامه اتچ شده و قابل دانلود است. شعرِ اثر، از زنده یاد فریدون مشیری است. متن شعر در ادامه نامه آورده شده است.

اى خشمِ به جان تاخته، توفانِ شرر شو

اى بغضِ گل انداخته، فريادِ خطر شو

اى روىِ برافروخته, خود پرچمِ ره باش

اى مشتِ برافراخته, افراخته ترشو

اى حافظِ جانِ وطن، از خانه برون آى

از خانه برون چيست كه از خويش به در شو

گر شعله فرو ريزد، بشتاب و مينديش

ور تيغ فرو بارد، اى سينه سپر شو

خاكِ پدران است كه دستِ دگران است

هان اى پسرم، خانه نگهدارِ پدر شو

ديوارِ مصيبت كده ىِ حوصله بشكن

شرم آيدم از اين همه صبرِ تو، ظفر شو

تا خود جگرِ روبهكان را بدرانى

چون شير درين بيشه سراپاى،جگر شو

مسپار وطن را به قضا و قدر اى دوست

خود بر سرِ آن، تن به قضا داده، قدر شو

فرياد به فرياد بيفزاى، كه وقت است

در يك نفسِ تازه اثرهاست، اثر شو

ايرانىِ آزاده! جهان چشم به راه است

ايران ِكهن در خطر افتاده، خبر شو

مشتى خس و خارند، به يك شعله بسوزان

بر ظلمتِ اين شامِ سيه فام، سحر شو


Kaveh Nouraee

Sorry, but it is indeed much too late

by Kaveh Nouraee on

This regime is fueled by fear. It is the foundation upon which they have endured since 1979.

It cannot be reformed. If they were to try and do so on a superficlal level, say, by getting rid of Khamenei and/or Ahmadinejad and replacing them with someone who is perceived as a "moderate", it amounts to nothing more than sweeping the dirt under the rug.

The events leading up to and following this "election" have shown the world a much clearer picture of the IR's true nature. And as a picture is worth 1000 words, there is really no way for the IR to talk themselves out of this one.


Anonymous111

Niloufar Jaan

by Anonymous111 on

You are aboslutely correct.  I believe so as well.  If there is a coup by the Guards it will be for leadership change rather than regime change, and the posture of the new government will be dependent on who the new leader will be.  My hope is that in the future we will see a detachment from the old revlutionary ideals and a new pragmatic cadre will emerge from within the guards that may bring about real substantive change to the government and make it a little less of a theocracy and a little more of a republic.


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Mammad: Great to see you back

by NiloufarParsi (not verified) on

and once again: superb article!
NP


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Bijan

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

I don't care to be original, however this is one of those rare occasions which I disagreed with Dr. Sahimi, as far as I know he was for Mousavi and I haven't been for Mousavi.
BTW Bijan, in my comment below I did not "name call" ... although when Zion (jAyash khAli) was here, I said there were two parrots on her shoulders.


Bijan A M

Dear Rosie

by Bijan A M on

Thank you for your posts. We can sit here and analyze all we want to come up with the reason why the hardliners came to control. We can blame Bush, Obama, Sanction, Israel, threat of war, etc… it does not change the foundation of the problem. Hardliners, reformists, moderates, liberals or conservatives, it will not change the core of  theocracy.

I think my point is not coming out clear enough. I am by no means suggesting our people should carelessly pour to the street and start a civil war right now. All I am saying is to keep the movement alive (underground if necessary), get well organized, educate the masses (your parents, uncle, aunt, classmate, baker, banker,….) some of this masses will be the basijis and pasdars. It is only then, and only then, that this movement can succeed with minimum bloodshed (nonetheless it will be bloody). I don’t know if it happens during my life time but I pray that it will. I say this without any tears (I mean crocodile tears).    


Bijan A M

Anonym7

by Bijan A M on

Sir, please show some originality and speak your own opinion, not cheerleading someone else’s. Any retarded soul can “name call” and label others anything he wants.

I read your god’s article in Tehranbureau.com and while impressed with the dump of information and extreme attempt to portray the author as against the ruling regime, there was nothing in the long write up but criticizing everyone and every organization and every government and offering author’s analysis of the situation (which nowadays are dime a dozen). I did not see any constructive or productive suggestions. I cannot even tell if the author was advocating a secular democracy.

As much as I respect him for his depth of scientific and political knowledge, I have yet to see a meaningful effort on his part towards a constructive movement towards a free Iran.

This article was for the most part regurgitation of the same criticism of the west that he has published in the past few years. So, his solution is to have credible nations (like Venezuela, North Korea, Syria,…) condemn the killing of protestors and Iran will become a democracy?

According to you and Irandokht, anyone who believes there is no peaceful transition from IRI to a secular democracy is agent of AIPAC and is shedding crocodile tears.

I’m going to leave it at this. 

Have a great evening.


rosie is roxy is roshan

Mammad, I bet it has.. /PS

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

kept you busy! I imagined you were. On one hand it is a loss and on the other it is a gain. At this critical juncture you have to be doing more formal analysis than just talking on threads but at the same time your perspectives are sorely missed and needed here.

If you could just take TWO MINUTES to tell me whether Escobar is right that the Basij were told to get five recruits each and were officially consolidated with the Sepaah several months before the elections? If Mojtaba is close with some top commanders of the IRGC and what Escobar says is true, in conjunction w/the Guardian article, that would mean there are some very deep rifts within the IRGC, wouldn't it?

Two minutes. Then I promise I will leave you alone.

For now.

R.

PS //iranian.com/main/news/2009/07/08/reformist-strategist-saeed-hajjarian

 


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The Iranian Crocodile himself is here! (to Fred)

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

Fred says: "Ok"

'The Iranian crocodile aka Persian crocodile, known locally as "Gandoo", is ...' (*)

Welcome Fred!

*From Amazing Iran: //www.worldisround.com/articles/73022/photo22...


Fred

To whom it may concern

by Fred on

Assuming “Fered” is an unintentional typo of my name and the comment is from a site administrator,  don’t get the “just no personal info”. The chap all but shouts his identities that time and again I’ve intentionally declined to mention. It is not the person rather the repackaging of the ruinous nuke craving Islamist ideology is being challenged.


Mammad

Rosie

by Mammad on

I have read the Guardian article about Mojtaba Khamenei. He is the force behind the scene of many things that have been happening. On the one hand, he is close to Khazali and Mesbah Yazdi, two reactionary ayatollahs and, on the other hand, he is close to some top commanders of the IRGC. I have started writing an article about him, hoping to finish soon.

I just finished writing an article about Saeed Hajjarian, the semi-paralyzed reformist strategist in jail, and my 1972 classmate, who is near death. It will be posted on Tehranbureau.com in the next couple of hours. Since 2-3 weeks prior to the elections, I have been trying to analyze and report as objectively as I can. That has kept me extremely busy.

Mammad


Fouzul Bashi

Thanks

by Fouzul Bashi on

 

;-)


Fred

Ok

by Fred on

Ok, the adulation society can cheer Dr. Strangelove on, but “on behalf of”? That is rich.


rosie is roxy is roshan

Mammad! /looong p.s.

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

I had been planning on writing to you offline because I hadn't seen you around and I thought it was very important to hear your voice here (and also in for me in particular briefly privately)-so many thoughts, questions.so much you know that no one else does....but I lost that e-mail Sadegh gave me last year. I was going to ask him for it again today.

Would you mind e-mailing me at rjgoldbird@aol.com? Hopefully if possible today.

thx

r.

__________________

okay, here is a public one for you:

What do you think of this article (w/my comment)?

//iranian.com/main/news/2009/07/08/khameneis-son-takes-control-irans-anti-protest-militia-

I had posted a Pepe Escobar video last month in which he carefully explained how weeks preceding the election, the Sepaah and the Basij officially consolidated and Basiji were encouraged to go out and try to recruit five people each;

If this is true, then the issue of Khamenei's son heading the Basij behind tghe scenes as alleged in the Guardian, thoroughly antagonizing the Sepaah leadership, would make no sense.

Or would it???

What do you know about any of this?


Mammad

Anonym7

by Mammad on

I know that Sahimi is grateful to you for the trust that you indicated in your as usual short and to the point comment. But, he considers himself only a completely insignificant member of a great nation, and nowhere close to be where you indicated. He is only doing what he can, as insignificant as it may be, to help the great nation of Iran. On his behalf, thank you.

Mammad


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thanks to Irandokht (to Nilou)

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

Original link was by Irandokht. I am not a Makhmali though, IF (a big IF) Dr. Sahimi and not Dr. Mousavi was the leader of Makhmalis I would definitely be a Makhmali. Sahimi's ideals are worth fighting for.


Niloufar Parsi

Anonym7

by Niloufar Parsi on

what a briliant article by Sahimi!

thanks for sharing.


Niloufar Parsi

Rosie

by Niloufar Parsi on

interesting piece on bbc persian. it really exposes their desperation and state of panic about the regime's survival that leads them to act against their own supporters. bound to implode sooner or later.


Niloufar Parsi

A111 aziz - thanks :)

by Niloufar Parsi on

I saw that blog. Am afraid he sounds a little childish - like an over-excited teenager who imagines Rambo would be better than Moussavi to make things better in iran. and he seems to have missed the sea of green we saw in tehran. i don't deny that a show of resistance force tinged with revenge was there and is perhaps useful for the cause. but it justifies the use of force on the other side, and will ultimately fail if not supported by a more peaceful mass movement in whatever shape - be it a general strike or other types of civil disobedience. in fact, a real fight against the basijis and other regime thugs needs an underground, armed movement. street riots are pointless against them. if the likes of him are serious, they need to form secret cells that hunt down and terrorise the basijis secretly. 

that works. but what works better is the Gandhian approach because it wins over the majority of your opponents to your side. it is strategically cleverer.

you didn't address the distinction i made in terms of a military coup and its prospects for regime change. am interested to hear what you think.

Peace


IRANdokht

good one!

by IRANdokht on

Anonym7

that was a sharp observation!

IRANdokht


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Radical/Crocodile "Makhmalies"!

by Anonym7 (not verified) on

I bet if Zion was still active in this site she would be as "Makhmali" as Bijan A M! AIPAC "Makhmalis".... 'Crocodile Tears for Iranians' ( //tehranbureau.com/crocidle-tears-iranians/ ) written by Dr. Sahimi.


Anonymous111

Niloufar Jaan

by Anonymous111 on

I have to say, even though I totally disagree with you I really enjoy reading your posts.  You seem to remain patient and keep your cool in responding to comments and that's gift.

Back to the subject.  I think that perhaps I should make myself clearer.  I wasn't just talking about any dictatorship, I was talking about military dictatorships, which IRI really is, kind of like Myanmar.  The only difference with the IRI is that, unlike Myanmar, the military thugs who are in charge are behind the scenes, which actually creates a more sinister situation.  Can you imagine a nationwide strike in Myanmar?!!!  Now imagine that in Iran!

This is a great piece that encapsulates my thoughts on the issue:

 //iranian.com/main/2009/jul/facebook-revolution


rosie is roxy is roshan

Listen to Niloufar, Bijan, just for five minutes..

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

accept as a working hypothesis that she just possibly might be neither naive nor part of a conspiracy..

and then check out my comment on this priceless little gem I just found on niac blog.

//iranian.com/main/news/2009/07/08/islamic-revolution-insured-least-20-years

 


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Bijan

by NiloufarParsi (not verified) on

wishful thinking is caused by allowing our emotions and personal preferences to take over our judgment. are you sure you are immune to this yourself?

there are strong forces set in motion against the regime. No one knows for sure how they will play out. a violent overthrow is a distinct possibility right now. but it's not the only one.


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Anonymous111 Aziz

by NiloufarParsi (not verified) on

That really made me smile! You asked me the question if I knew of any dictatorship having been removed through workers' strikes and I gave you one... I didn't say it was necessarily applicable to Iran. sorry if i misled you there.

On the Guards, my question on the possibility of civil war was based on the fact that the Guards are an (the) ideological pillar of the regime. If they stage a coup, it would not be for regime change, but rather a leadership change.

However, if there is a coup from within the Guards for the purpose of regime change, there is likely to be armed resistance to it from within the Guards and from factions such as the Basij or Ansar. I hope that clarifies what i meant.


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Bijan A M

by Dariush (not verified) on

You say you don't advocate violence, but you want armed confrontation. You expect guarantee for victory through nonviolence. Can you guarantee victory through armed confrontation? MEK has tried that before. We saw the results. Do you want to take that path? then join MEK.

No one said government will change on her own, it will take a lot of effort from the movement. I also want a real democrocy based on common law and open to changes and evolution. That is why, it would be best to separate the religion and state. There are many laws in western system that can be used, but i personally don't want a copycat of western system and I think we can do better. However, your mind is set on this system as a true democrocy and anything different will be in conflict with your belief and not acceptable.

I may be wrong, but i had said many times. If the demonstrators had used some anti west and Israel slogans among other slogans and their demand, their position would have been more clear and many more would have changed teams and joined them. But for some reasons the leadership doesn't want that. That is one of the reasons that Ahmadinejad is supported.


rosie is roxy is roshan

Bijan, I think (reworked)

by rosie is roxy is roshan on

there was a clear trajectory overall from the Khomeini to the Rafsanjani to the Khatami years of progressive--what word could I use to incense you the least?--well a clear trajectory. I believe it was primarily Bush's military flanking of Iran that caused the huge hardliner backlash, and now they are drunk with power and also desprate to keep it by any means necessary precisely because they know that they don't have the LEGITMIATE 'external threat' spiel to spin anymore. So what do they do? Multipy and fortify the Basij, consolidate them with Sepaah, set them loose, etc.

But in so doing they overplay their hand. Because they have caused far greater fissures within the clergy itself,  where the real power under Khamenei lies, than previously. The thing is the real power behind Khamenei, ithe Sepaah, has been fortified. So that's the paradox. However...

They are dinosaurs, destined to extinction, and they know it and that is why they are clamping down so hard. You forget sheer demographics. These people are how old-92? Iran is I think 50% under 25 IN THE INTERNET AGE. Look at Khomeini's own grandson.

And surely you can't believe that when people within the inner echelons of power within the clergy, Majlis, etc. are talking about things like an elected Supreme leader, voluntary hijab, granting of equal rights to Bahai and god knows what else, that that's not different from the hardliner status quo? That something in the Zeitgeist hasn't shifted... 

How long can this paradoxical crossroads last? I don't know. But I feel in my bones they will sooner rather than later become dinosaur bones. 

PS No there is no consciously ntended effort to pacify the movement.

My whole question over and over, not just here but on many threads this past week, is what should we DO now. WE. Here.To help  I was so shocked when for two days on top of the homepage there was a notice of a general strike this week, and, granted its scope or even its credibility were in question (turns out the call came from Moussavi himself...) but I couldn't and can't understand why that was not the major focal point of the 'greens' on this website--ti at keast find out. Nor could I understand why it was removed after two days as though it were no more important than...Shirin Neshrat's film, or...a quiz..Things like that dumbfound  me.

So far no takers on my question.  I am still waiting for an answer. (But of course not necessarily from you, Bijan...LOL. Shalom).