Wicked Wisdom

Bill O'Reilly, John Bolton, Israel, and Iran

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Wicked Wisdom
by DM
28-Jan-2010
 

The conventional wisdom among a lot of US pundits, particularly on the right, is that if Iran continues to push forward on the nuclear front, Israel will attack.

Bill O’Reilly, in his recent interview with Sarah Palin: “The Israelis are getting very, very close.”

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton: “I think Israel views an Iran with nuclear weapons as an existential threat to the state of Israel, and I think as the Israelis demonstrated last December when they destroyed that North Korean reactor in Syria that they’re prepared to take the necessary steps.”

Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal: “Events are fast pushing Israel toward a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, probably by next spring.”

And so on.

Count me a skeptic. If the Israelis truly thought bombing Iran was a feasible option, they likely would have done it already. Consider the history:

In 2007 the Israelis did in fact destroy a suspected nuclear facility in Syria. What the Israelis pointedly didn’t do, however, is spend the better part of a decade telling the Syrians they better stop building it or else, thereby giving the Syrians time to build tunnels and reinforce everything with massive concrete slabs and develop sophisticated anti-aircraft defenses. Same goes for the bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981. Days before French nuclear fuel was scheduled to be delivered, the Israelis carried out an attack that caught the Iraqis, and much of the rest of the world, at unawares. In both instances, the Israelis acted well before the Syrian or Iraqi nuclear programs were anywhere close to being as developed as Iran’s are now. And Israel certainly didn’t telegraph their plans before carrying them out.

Below are a few relevant milestones in Iran’s nuclear program, none of which resulted in a pre-emptive Israeli attack, but all of which Israel likely viewed as a threats equal to or greater than those posed by Syria or Iraq:

In 1993, Argentina delivered enriched uranium (19.75%) to Iran for use in the US-built Tehran Nuclear Research Center.

In 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran disclosed the existence of a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, and a heavy water facility in Arak.

In 2006, Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had successfully enriched uranium to 3.6% through the use of centrifuge technology. In that same year, satellite data was released indicating tunnels had been dug around Esfahan, and that much of the Natanz facility had been buried and further protected by layers of concrete.

In 2007, Iran announced they had 3000 centrifuges working to enrich uranium. Also in that year, Russia finally delivered nuclear fuel to the reactor under construction at Bushehr.

In 2009, Iran announced the existence of a second uranium enrichment facility, located north of Qom.

In 2010, Iran and Russia announced they plan to start the nuclear plant at Bushehr in March.

The list above is by no means exhaustive. The point is that year after year, when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, the Israelis have threatened to attack while actually exercising restraint—whereas with Syria and Iraq, they attacked early on, without real warning, despite being faced with what arguably were lesser provocations. The reason the Israelis have held back is threefold:

1. It would be difficult, if not impossible, for them to stage such a long-range attack on their own. And even if they could get the planes there, the targets are heavily protected. And the Israelis may not even know where all the targets are.

2. Although they’re certainly gravely concerned, the Israelis probably don’t consider a nuclear Iran an existential threat. After the disputed election, it seems clearer than ever that the primary goal of the IRI—above even promoting their questionable interpretation of Twelver Shiism—is maintaining power. Using a nuclear weapon against Israel, or slipping one to Hezbollah for the same purpose, would likely mean the end of their power. After all, Israel could retaliate with their own nukes and destroy 80% or so of the heavily-urbanized Iranian population in a day. My God. The IRI may be crazy (and certainly they are anti-Semitic), but they’ve given no indication that they’re that crazy. They haven’t, for example, given biological or chemical weapons to Hezbollah. To get to the nuke-Israel level of crazy, you have to descend into the Sunni suicide-bomber mindset. Which is why Pakistan’s existing nukes should be more of a concern than Iran’s theoretical ones. I have to believe Israeli defense experts appreciate the difference between the IRI and nihilistic Sunni radicals.

3. The costs of an attack would outweigh the benefits. Some of the costs are obvious: innocent lives would be lost, oil prices would spike after the Straight of Hormuz was temporarily blocked, US troops would be attacked in Iraq, Israel would be attacked by Hamas and Hezbollah and likely by Iran directly, etc. The less-obvious and less-quantifiable consequence is the extra time an attack could buy the IRI. Ninety percent of Iranians support Iran’s nuclear program. In the past, the Shah supported it, and in the future, if they ever come to power, the Greens will support it. If Israel or anyone else tries to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program militarily, it’s going enrage a lot of people across the political spectrum. When Iranians rally around the flag after an attack, as many will, how many extra years will that give the IRI? Ten? Twenty? Who knows, but I bet the IRI would gain more years from an attack than the few years (at most) the nuclear program would be delayed.

The Israelis are aware of all this, despite the bluster. Which is why, unless something happens to fundamentally change the cost-benefit equation, they’ll just continue to push for sanctions—sanctions that will be meaningless because Russia and China won’t support them, but that’s another article.

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rpRoshan

"xerxes"

by rpRoshan on

Why is it that all hezbo IRI trolls always have pre-Islamic names? Here's what this intellectual midgit writes, "I would worry about Khatami and Mousavi. These two amazing leaders who want and should lead Iran to the 21st century are stuck with bunch of backward conservatives who are the killing machines."

So, Khatami and Mousavi are "amazing," and they "should lead Iran to the 21st century."

Get something straight, x-man, the mullahs are part of Iran's past, not future, that includes your fraudulent smiling mullah, or Hojatoeslam, Khatami. And your boy Mousavi has his hands stained with a river of blood, as in the massacre of the summer of 1988, as in the liquidation of 30,000 political prisoners. And let's not forget that the greatest assault against journalists (Zahra Kazami and others) and intellectuals in Iran took place under the fraudulent presidency of mullah Khatami.

The IRI, in every form and representation, whether under the tutilege of SS Ahmadinejad or mullah Khatami, is part of Iran's past, not future. DO YOU HEAR, xerxes (lower case letters for a lower form intellect).

As such, Khatami and Mousavi will do NO SUCH leading of Iran in the 21st century. Ge that through your head, xerxes, aka, Yadollah. They will be bystanders, at best, if not behind bars.


No Fear

XerXer ..

by No Fear on

I get it from your reply that the world admiration for Khatami is ranked very high on your approval of Khatami. Sorry to be staright forward with you, but thats pathetic. Foreign approval ratings should be alarming for you not encouraging. Khatami was admired because he started the " dialogue of civilization" doctorine as a mean to get close to US and by dropping his pants down. He was a showman and not a politician. He was giving in to international pressure faster than a hooker getting into a john's car. What does Khatami has to show after 8 years of his reformist administration? NOTHING.

And you are wrong about Khamenei involvement with the nuclear issue during his time. At that time, Khamenei was quiet and did not interfere in the nuclear standoff at all. Khatami had everyone convinced to make the sacrifice on the nuclear issue but be in US good book afterwards. yeah, right... we saw how that turned out.

Khamenei got involved in the nuclear issue AFTER the miserable failure of Khatami's administration in handling this issue.

Get your facts straight.

 


XerXes.

No Fear

by XerXes. on

Khatami knows the language of politics. you got to know when to slow down and when to push for more. You can't always do the same thing in any situation. That's what anti khatami do and that's what gets Iran more isolated, for no reason.
Here is something you need to know. The Nuclear issue is not decided by the President, as national security of the US is not either. No matter what president, they would do the same policies.
Khatami was admired throughout the world by peace loving citizens and made every Iranian proud. Khatami is the healthy fruit of the Islamic Republic, all reformists are. The conservatives like Janati, A. Khatami, Mesbah Yazdi, Ahmadinejad, etc. are the backward, ruthless, dictatorial individuals that don't know how to speak well, do well, and think well. They are the sick apples with worms from the tree of the Islamic Republic.


Anonymous Observer

The first thing that will happen

by Anonymous Observer on

when the IRR starts a war in the Persian Gulf is that either the U.S. or the French Navies will capture the three Islands, keep them for "security" reasons and then hand them over to the UAE.  Then "No Fear" and the rest of Iran hating IRR trash will celebrate their "success" in having been able to throw a Scud at tel Aviv and  having the Palestinians in Ramallah cheer them on.  I guess that will compensate for losing Iranian land. 

What a bunch of Iran hating vermin. 


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

False Bravado

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

False bravado is very stupid and there is a reason the feeling of fear exists. Fear keeps us from doing stupid things like jumping off a cliff. Yes it is possible to get lucky and take out one ship; or plane. The Serbs shot down a Stealth Bomber. Guess what: they still lost Kosovo. The war also cost Milasojic his freedom and in time his life. The same will happen to the IRR leadership: mark my words.

The belligerent noises coming from "No Fear"; "XerXes; "Niloufar" and the rest of IRR apologists is very disturbing. These people are angry because they see the IRR is on its last legs. They are hoping a war will prop up the IRR. If you think so then think again. Iran has no chance of winning a war against the US. A war will cost lives and bring misery. But the IRR supporsters don't care about Iranian lives. After all by rejecting the IRR Iranians are proving to not be "good muslims" therefore IRR supporters do not care about them. Well guess what! The Iranian people are past the point of listening to the IRR propaganda and wasting their lives in an ill advised war against a made up enemy just to keep the Mullah in power.

As for world's economy: if it comes to it US will do whatever it takes. In that US will be helped by most the other nations including the new darlings of IRR: Russia and China. The reason is that no one sane wants the world economy to fall apart. Unfortunately sanity is not the strong point of either the IRR or its supporters on this forum.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

AN's confidence

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

Niloufar,

Are you so out of touch to use AN as a source of sanity? 

AN is also confident that Imam Zaman is hiding in a well! He is also confident that the holocaust never happened! He is also confident that he won the election! 

You IRR supporters are just like your leaders. Going off the deep end further by the minute.


vildemose

iran holds the world

by vildemose on

that the americans would hesitate to attack iran for reasons already mentioned. you can't deny the fact that america is at a bit of a loss with the nuclear issue with iran now. we will see how it turns out, but right now obama has gone quiet and merkel has grabbed the sanctions torch.

Don't be fooled with these theartics. War is money. The global military Industrial complex thrives on wars. If Afghanistan and Iraq were not profitable, you would immediately see both places abandoned like a failed states as did Russian with Afghanistan. Human cost hardly weighs in.


vildemose

 iran holds the world

by vildemose on

 iran holds the world economy hostage through the strait of hormuz. the world cannot afford such a conflict.

 Nilou jan: Who authroed thsi assessment first and made a coventional wisdom for us to repeat??

None other than Pentagon et al. Think about it.  This is called give them enough rope and they will hand themselves

You also said this "that the whole world would pay a heavy price,..."

Do you honestly think the whole world (i.e., transnational corporations and military industrial complex)  is not aware of that?? Do you think the whole world does not have contingency plans to not pay a heavey price? The whole world against the IRI as you say yourself. Do you think the whole world is stupid?


Niloufar Parsi

AO, Anomymouse

by Niloufar Parsi on

i agree with you on all of that. am just saying that the americans would hesitate to attack iran for reasons already mentioned. you can't deny the fact that america is at a bit of a loss with the nuclear issue with iran now. we will see how it turns out, but right now obama has gone quiet and merkel has grabbed the sanctions torch.


No Fear

Khatami and the Nuclear Issue

by No Fear on

Back to the original topic

XerXer, how much do you know about Khatami's compromises during his last years of presidency both on regional and nuclear issues?

I encourage you to find out more about his policies before you start defending him. Will you be shocked if i tell you that Khatami's nuclear team were bargaining with IAEA to allow them to have 6 centrifuses spinning for research purposes and for Khatami to save face in Iran. In other words , they allowed a total ban on our enrichment ( which resulted in IAEA sealing the plant ) and were begging them to let them have 6 spinners. What do you say to that?

Khatami's policies are the main reason for reformist failures.

Have you forgot about Khatami's government letter to the bush administration willing to make a grand bargain? Obviously, when US is pounding Iraq and Afghanistan, he is not going to have the upper hand. He was weak and incompetent.

I am not even going to go where Mousavi has gone before.

Your beloved reformist ( and likeminded ) have nothing to show for a combined 20 years of governing our country. They had their chances and they blew it badly.


XerXes.

baba who cares

by XerXes. on

Israel is not the issue here. They are a tiny little state that can't even pay for their bills. I would worry about Khatami and Mousavi. These two amazing leaders who want and should lead Iran to the 21st century are stuck with bunch of backward conservatives who are the killing machines. They need to be stopped.

Israel is a peshgel. Don't worry.


Anonymous Observer

Niloufar

by Anonymous Observer on

First, Anonymouse is right about Ahmadi being confident over hapless Iranians.  Second, and more important reason for his confidence is that he is messianic.  But he projects his messianic tendencies to the Iranian nation, which means that he wants to sacrifice them, not himself.  This is the same guy that worships a hole in the ground at Jamkaran because he thinks that his messiah lives there.  Do you not expect him to welcome a destructive war?  Do you really think that he, and the rest of the IRI, are rational patriotic people who care about the welfare of Iran as a country and as a nation, have done a systematic strategic analysis and are confident that they can defeat an advanced military?!!!!!  

You're dealing with Hassan Nasrollah Hezbollah mentality here.  Ahmadinejad is confident that if war comes, he and the rest of them, will crawl into a hole, wait for Iran to be turned into a parking lot (like South Lebanon, but to the nth degree), and will crawl out (like that coward Hassan Nasrollah) and will claim victory because they are still alive.  


Anonymouse

Niloufar, Ahmadi is "confident" over poor badbahkt Iranians!

by Anonymouse on

Everything is sacred.


Niloufar Parsi

vildemose

by Niloufar Parsi on

you are free to call it delusional, but ever wondered why the likes of ahmadinejad are so confident of their position? yes i know about saddam etc, but these guys have been 'enemies' for 30 years, don't forget.


Anonymous Observer

Niloufar

by Anonymous Observer on

"but you must also see that iran's position against the us is quite strong. they know that a shia dominated state would not hesitate to 'sacrifice' especially when it knows that the whole world would pay a heavy price for a us attack against it."

How?  Are they going to swim to the American ships which will be blanketing the Strait of Hormuz and blow themselves up?  How about boats you may say?  Trust me, radar systems on American ships will pick up even a kayak paddling toward it and will pulverize it on site.  See, this is why a Taliban style war of insurgency (which unfortunately Iran's once great military has been reduced to) will not work in a naval battle like the one that the U.S. will wage.   



Anonymouse

Niloufar doesnt matter Iran'll lose war & all. World will be ok.

by Anonymouse on

Everything is sacred.


vildemose

that iran's position

by vildemose on

that iran's position against the us is quite strong. they know that a shia dominated state would not hesitate to 'sacrifice' especially when it knows that the whole world would pay a heavy price for a us attack against it.

Wow, more delusional scary hubris....I hope the IRI leadership is not this detached from reality...


vildemose

Iran's dead and detained

by vildemose on

Iran's dead and detained UPDATEDS

Spreadsheet of the victims of Islamic Republic of Rapists:

//www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/jan/28/iran-dead-detained-protests-elections-spreadsheet


Niloufar Parsi

iran would lose the war

by Niloufar Parsi on

for sure. that is not the point. the point is that iran holds the world economy hostage through the strait of hormuz. the world cannot afford such a conflict. of course iran would be totally overwhelmed by the americans in pure military terms. but you must also see that iran's position against the us is quite strong. they know that a shia dominated state would not hesitate to 'sacrifice' especially when it knows that the whole world would pay a heavy price for a us attack against it.


Anonymous Observer

vildemose

by Anonymous Observer on

it's No Fear of being an IRI clown spreading IRI propaganda.  

By the way "No Fear", don't get to happy bragging about a mine that accidentally struck and unprepared ship (BTW, at the time your IRI bosses claimed that it was an Iraqi mine :-)).   When it's time to go to war, you can rest assured that every single one of IRI's rinky dink mine laying ship will be pulverized before they can lay a single mine. 


No Fear

Now you are off topic ...

by No Fear on

Must be very convenient to debate this way....


vildemose

to:

by vildemose on

No Fear:

NO FEAR of what??


Anonymous Observer

vildemose

by Anonymous Observer on

you are correct.  And I may add that they will have idiots like the character below you here (No Fear) who will sacrifice every Iranian (while their own chicken hawk butts are resting comfortably in Boston if I may add) just to prove a point. 


vildemose

AO: See, No fear just proved

by vildemose on

AO: See, No fear just proved my point...lol


vildemose

AO: I'm afraid that this

by vildemose on

AO: I'm afraid that this kind of false bravado and hubris among the IRI supporters will eventually lead to slaughter of millions of Iranians.

If the IRI thinks that it has even one percent chance of winning a war with the US, they will definitely provoke a war somehow in the region. It only takes one side to think like that. That's how all wars strat.

 


No Fear

Anounymous , If ignorance is bliss, you must be the happiest guy

by No Fear on

Iran can close the strait simply by mining the waterway with fishing boats. We don't even need a navy to close this waterway! This strategy has been proven before. On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) struck an Iranian M-08/39 mine in the central Persian Gulf shipping lane, wounding 10 sailors and that was a warship not an oil tanker and a fairly outdated mine too. While placing or dropping mines in the persian gulf is super easy , detecting them even with todays technology is very difficult. We could simply litter persian gulf with mines of all sorts today.

If just one oil tanker gets hit by a mine, it will drive up the oil price like it did back in the days of " Tankers war". Besides, no cargo ship company would be willing to pay the hefty insurance prices for oil shipment from persian gulf.

Your lack of knowledge and credibility is keep piling up. You see everything like a US marine. Its not about who has the bigger gun, its about who has the smartest startegy. But i guess being " smart" is not something you are familiar with.

 


Anonymouse

Niloufar judge the fate of Saddam & Mullah Omar not US Military

by Anonymouse on

I think Israel is not going to attack and if they do Iran will send whatever they have at them.  But that's not the issue.

The issue are the wild claims by these dictators.  All say the same thing and all end up loosing their lives over it.  Saddam was the most stupid of them all.  He went to war in 1990 and didn't learn a thing. 

As for US's fate in Iraq and Afghanistan, if you ask US military they'd say they're just doing their jobs.  That's actually what Rumsfeld said which made many generals very upset that he thinks war is US military's job and nothing more. 

Everything is sacred.


Anonymous Observer

Niloufar

by Anonymous Observer on

comparing Iraq and Afghanistan to a naval conflict with Iran is like comparing...well, apples and oranges.  The U.S. has been extremely successful in the "classic" military operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq, which essentially resulted in occupation of two large populace countries with absolutely minimal casualties for the U.S. military.  The guerrilla warfare is another story.  A naval battle with Iran will be a classic naval operation, where the U.S. Navy will have an overwhelming advantage in technology, equipment and expertise.  Remember the 1980's when the U.S. decided to attack Iran's navy?  It gutted half of Iran's navy within hours.  The harsh reality for IRI is, that aside from a bunch of speed boats and a few antiquated Russian submarines (which, again, advanced U.S. submarines have been trained to track and destroy for decades), the Iranian navy is no different than what it was in the 1980's.  

I think it's time for you and everyone else who believes in IRI "technology" to face the reality. Iran under the IRI is a backward nation which is at least 4-5 decades behind in technology, both military and civilian, as compared to western nations.  If it wasn't, it wouldn't be begging the Russian mob for S-300's and a 1970's style nuclear reactor. It would have produced all of that by itself.  


Niloufar Parsi

Anonymous Observor

by Niloufar Parsi on

i am no military expert, but judging from the performance in iraq and afghanistan, i would not trust in the capabilities of the us military. but i guess we can agree to disagree.


Cost-of-Progress

VPK...

by Cost-of-Progress on

" i think that the user you're referring to misspelled his name.  his name is actual "xer xer" as in xer xer ziad zadan."

 AAA ha ha ha - seems like yet another "new" poster added to the Fellowship of the Murderous Reesh-o Pashm.

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IRAN FIRST

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